information search in the decision making process 1 dr. phil. seraphina zurbriggen collaboration...

Information search in the decision making process1

Dr. phil. Seraphina ZurbriggenCollaboration with Prof. Dr. D. Läge, Dr. D. Hausmann, Dr. S. Christen

1 Funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)

Information search in the decision making process

2

http://www.wissen-digital.de/lexikon/images/c/c9/191082.jpg

1Brunswik, E. (1952). The conceptual framework of psychology. (International Encyclopedia of Unified Science, Volume 1, Number 10.) Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

2Gigerenzer G. and Hoffrage U. and Kleinbölting H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models : a Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review 98, pp.506-528.

ecological system of the environment cognitive human systemCue1

Cue2

Cue3

Cue4

„true“ state Judgment of the observer

validity 2


Lens- Modell, Brunswik 19521

3

Adaptive Toolbox of Gigerenzer et al.

“Models of bounded rationality describe how a judgment or decision is reached (that is, the heuristic processes or proximal mechanisms) rather than merely the outcome of the decision, and they describe the class of environments in which these heuristics will succeed or fail.” (Gigerenzer & Selten, 2001, S. 4)

Gigerenzer & Selten (Eds.) (2001). Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox. MIT Press.

Gigerenzer, Todd, & the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.


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Organ Donation

Johnson & Goldstein 2003, Science

“If there is a default, do nothing about it”

„Recognition“ Heuristic

Decide in the direction of recognition

Search Rule

Decision Rule

Do you recognize one of them?

Yes

Gigerenzer, Todd, & the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.

Which city has more inhabitants? Munich or Dortmund?

No/ Yes, both

No further search for information

Search for information

or Guess


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„Take The Best“-Heuristic (TTB) (non-compensatory, ORDM)

Choose the Cue with the highest validity

Does it discriminate between the two options?

Decide in the direction of the discriminating Cue

Yes

NoSearch Rule

Stopping Rule

Decision Rule

No

Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of Bounded Rationality. Psychological Review, 103 (4), 650–669.


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Do you recognize one of them?

Which city has more inhabitants? Munich or Dortmund?

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search rule Information search in the decision making process

Validity/ discrimination rate–Millionaire Experiment

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10

Pfeife rauchende Frauen

gelehrte Frauen

Prostituierte

Nonnen

Als „Blaustrumpf“ bezeichnete man im 18. Jahrhundert verächtlich eine gelehrte Frau, die nicht unbedingt Charme hat. Der Ausdruck wurde um 1750 in England für Frauen geprägt, die in literarischen Zirkeln verkehrten.



Results

40% search information according to validity

60% combining validity and discrimination rate

V*D V+D Success (V*D+[1-D]*0.5)

Hausmann, D. (2004). Informationssuche im Entscheidungsprozess. Die Nützlichkeit von Hinweis-Cues und der Anspruch an Urteilssicherheit. Zürich: Zentralstelle der Studentendruckerei.


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information costs – China Experiment

stopping rule Information search in the decision making process

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4.59

2.38 2.40 2.15 1.98 2.08 1.95 1.75 1.751.53

1.06

0

1

2

3

4

5

mea

n o

f b

ou

gh

t cu

es (

max

. 5)

Number of bought cues

0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2500 3500 5000 US-Dollar

Sum when winning (deciding correctly) = 10‘000 US-Dollar – information costs

information costs – Design China Experiment


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Confidence– Horse Race Experiment


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Symposium Empirische Evidenz zum adaptiven Entscheiden mit einfachen Heuristiken F515

Symposium Empirische Evidenz zum adaptiven Entscheiden mit einfachen Heuristiken F5

Desired Level of Confidence

?

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84 8381 81 81 80 78 77 76 76 75 74 74 74 73 73 73 71

69 6764

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

N = 21

MDLC = .75

SDDLC = .05

Desired Level of Confidence (= DLC)

Results on Confidence– Horse Race Experiment


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Verification of the desired level of confidence

Models on decision making and their predictions n = 420

Non-K. ORDM MRDM

V > DLC 210 0

V < DLC 210 0

DLC ORDM MRDM

V > DLC 210 0

V < DLC 0 210

Komp. ORDM MRDM

V > DLC 0 210

V < DLC 0 210


Chance ORDM MRDM

V > DLC 105 105

V < DLC 105 105

Amount of correct predictions M = 85%, SD = 13% n = 420

Non-K. ORDM MRDM

V > DLC 210 0

V < DLC 210 0

Komp. ORDM MRDM

V > DLC 0 210

V < DLC 0 210

Chance ORDM MRDM

V > DLC 105 105

V < DLC 105 105

GUS ORDM MRDM

V > GUS 210 0

V < GUS 0 210

Zufall ORDM MRDM

V > GUS 105 105

V < GUS 105 105

results ORDM MRDM

V > DLC 177 33

V < DLC 30 180


Verification of the desired level of confidence

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Yes

NoSearch Rule

Stopping Rule

Decision Rule

Do you know the solution?No



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the value of non-discriminating cue information China Experiment

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+ +



22

Large City Small City

Cue 1 ++++++++++++++++++ - -

Cue 2 ++++++++++++++ - - - - - -

Cue 3 ++++++++++ - - - - - - - - - -

Cue 4 ++++++ - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Cue 5 ++ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The occurrence rate ( = xi / N)DR

.18

.42

.50

.42

.18

Hypothesis

+ + - -

OR

.90

.70

.50

.30

.10



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Study 4

Tageszeitung

Parteibüro

Yetchan

Volleyball-Team

Krankenhaus

2 modes of Learning Pairwise vs. monitoring Testing OR Questionnaire

Linienbusse

Ranking the 5 cues according to V, DR, Success and OR


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the value of non-discriminating cue information Design China Experiment – results

Modelconform: 55% (p<.05)5 subjects (N=30)

Modelconform: 58% (p<.01)9 subjects (N=30)

Pairwise Learning

Monitoring Learning

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-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Pairwise Learning

Monitoring Learning

Mean Correlation (Fisher Z)


the value of non-discriminating cue information China Experiment – results questionnaire

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ICP Berlin

• Adaptive search rule: Some people do it• a modulating variable of the search order: The Occurrence

Rate • search order depends on the mode of learning


the value of non-discriminating cue information Design China Experiment – facit

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Yes

NoSearch Rule

Stopping Rule

Decision Rule

Do you know the solution?No



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ecological system of the environment cognitive human systemCue1

Cue2

Cue3

Cue4

„true“ state Judgment of the observer

ValidityDiscrimination rateOccurence rateStability


Lens- Modell, Brunswik 1952

29

30

Validity in a dynamic environment – stock market experiment


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32

Theorie: Validität in dynamischer Umwelt – Methode


33Zurbriggen, S., Christen, S., Hausmann, D. & Läge, D. (in prep.). Informationssuche beim Entscheiden in zeitlich dynamischen Umwelten. AKZ-Forschungsbericht 44, Zürich: Angewandte Kognitionspsychologie.

• In a dynamic environment less information is search for• Some subjects decide entirerly without any new

information• Some subjects prefer the stable cues over the valid

information



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Validity in a dynamic environment – water experiment with time as a ressource

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• Subjects show essentially a similar pattern in dealing with information, independent of the resource ( money vs. time)

• There is a trend however to search for more information and decide rather risky when time is the ressource


Validity in a dynamic environment – water experiment with time as a ressource

Revision of the concept of the Adaptive Toolbox

Level of confidence


Value of non-discriminatinginformation


Level of confidence

Time Relevance


Level of confidence


Conflicting information


Level of confidence

Time Relevance



Conflicting information

Level of confidence

Time Relevance


Thank you for your attention!


the value of non-discriminating cue information Design China Experiment – results

OptionA B

Cue with a higher OR

Cue with a lower OR total

Non discriminating - - 92 146 238 + + 54 155 209total 146 301 447

OptionA B

Cue with a higher OR

Cue with a lower OR total

Non discriminating - - 146 88 234 + + 101 112 213total 247 200 447

55% (p<.05)5 subjects (N=30)

58% (p<.01)9 subjects (N=30)

Pairwise Learning

Monitoring Learning

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information search in the decision making process 1 dr. phil. seraphina zurbriggen collaboration...

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