inst 275 – administrative processes in government lecture 9 – leadership and decision making

INST 275 – Administrative INST 275 – Administrative Processes in GovernmentProcesses in Government

Lecture 9 – Leadership and Lecture 9 – Leadership and Decision MakingDecision Making

IntroductionIntroduction

Leaders of governments, major Leaders of governments, major business corporations, and other business corporations, and other large organizations typically make large organizations typically make policy decisions with the expectation policy decisions with the expectation that the outcomes will be sufficiently that the outcomes will be sufficiently successful to achieve fairly well the successful to achieve fairly well the objectives they have in mind.objectives they have in mind.

But, all too often they are bitterly But, all too often they are bitterly disappointed.disappointed.


Models of decision-making.Models of decision-making. Rational model.Rational model. Political model.Political model. Process model.Process model. Garbage can model.Garbage can model.

Rational ModelRational Model

Grounded in goals/objectives, alternatives, Grounded in goals/objectives, alternatives, consequences, and optimality.consequences, and optimality.

Assumptions.Assumptions. Complete information.Complete information. One correct conception of the problem.One correct conception of the problem.

Steps.Steps. Define problem.Define problem. Determine goals and objectives.Determine goals and objectives. Identify all alternatives.Identify all alternatives. Identify consequences of alternatives.Identify consequences of alternatives. Weigh the costs and benefits of each consequence.Weigh the costs and benefits of each consequence. Select the alternative that produces the most optimal Select the alternative that produces the most optimal

outcome.outcome. Advantage – Logical, sequential approach.Advantage – Logical, sequential approach. Disadvantage – Assumes no intrinsic biases.Disadvantage – Assumes no intrinsic biases.

Political ModelPolitical Model

Considers preconceived notions that decision-Considers preconceived notions that decision-makers bring to the table.makers bring to the table.

Assumes decision-makers are motivated by and act Assumes decision-makers are motivated by and act on their own needs and perceptions.on their own needs and perceptions.

Decision-making involves a cycle of bargaining as Decision-making involves a cycle of bargaining as each decision-maker attempts to get his or her each decision-maker attempts to get his or her approach adopted. Attempt to sway powerful approach adopted. Attempt to sway powerful stakeholders.stakeholders.

Assumes incomplete information and does not Assumes incomplete information and does not focus on optimal outcome.focus on optimal outcome.

Advantages – represents subjective nature of Advantages – represents subjective nature of decision-making and may minimize conflict.decision-making and may minimize conflict.

Disadvantage – does not necessarily produce the Disadvantage – does not necessarily produce the best solution, only the most political acceptable one.best solution, only the most political acceptable one.

Process ModelProcess Model

Decisions are made on the basis of Decisions are made on the basis of standard operating procedures or pre-standard operating procedures or pre-established guidelines within the established guidelines within the organization.organization.

The organization of past, present, and The organization of past, present, and future events.future events.

Key value is conformity. If in doubt, Key value is conformity. If in doubt, conform to pre-existing standard.conform to pre-existing standard.

Advantages – Adds predictability to Advantages – Adds predictability to decision-making process.decision-making process.

Disadvantages – Sacrifices flexibility to Disadvantages – Sacrifices flexibility to predictability, can leave the organization predictability, can leave the organization vulnerable to rapid external change.vulnerable to rapid external change.

Garbage Can ModelGarbage Can Model

Most appropriate where technologies are unclear, Most appropriate where technologies are unclear, participant involvement fluctuates, and choices are participant involvement fluctuates, and choices are inconsistent and not well-defined. (Ill-structured inconsistent and not well-defined. (Ill-structured problems).problems).

Decision opportunity is a garbage can into which Decision opportunity is a garbage can into which many types of problems and solutions are dropped many types of problems and solutions are dropped independently.independently.

Linkages among problems, solutions, and decision-Linkages among problems, solutions, and decision-makers are often determined by both chance and makers are often determined by both chance and necessity.necessity.

Advantages – Real world representation of non-Advantages – Real world representation of non-rational manner in which decisions are often made.rational manner in which decisions are often made.

Disadvantages – Not the most efficient way to make Disadvantages – Not the most efficient way to make a decision.a decision.


Several different causes contribute Several different causes contribute to unsuccessful outcomes.to unsuccessful outcomes. Unforeseeable obstacles to effective Unforeseeable obstacles to effective

implementation (countermoves) and implementation (countermoves) and uncontrollable events.uncontrollable events.

Leader’s oversimplified beliefs and Leader’s oversimplified beliefs and ideological stereotypes.ideological stereotypes.

Ambiguity of available evidence.Ambiguity of available evidence. Misleading information.Misleading information. Bad luck.Bad luck.


But one of the key factors: poor quality But one of the key factors: poor quality of the decision making procedures of the decision making procedures used either to arrive at a new policy or used either to arrive at a new policy or to reaffirm the existing policy.to reaffirm the existing policy.

Defective procedures do not Defective procedures do not guarantee a bad outcome, but the guarantee a bad outcome, but the likelihood is substantially less if sound likelihood is substantially less if sound procedures of information search, procedures of information search, appraisal, and planning are used.appraisal, and planning are used.


Among the defective pathways that lead Among the defective pathways that lead to disastrous policy decisions are those to disastrous policy decisions are those that fail to correct avoidable errors – that fail to correct avoidable errors – rectifiable misperceptions, refutable false rectifiable misperceptions, refutable false assumptions, resolvable ignorance, and assumptions, resolvable ignorance, and remediable lapses in judgment remediable lapses in judgment concerning the probability or magnitude concerning the probability or magnitude of expected costs or benefits.of expected costs or benefits.

An organization’s success or failure, An organization’s success or failure, indeed its very survival, depends in large indeed its very survival, depends in large part on the leadership it is able to attract.part on the leadership it is able to attract.


Key assumptions of the decision-Key assumptions of the decision-making model.making model. The quality of decision procedures used to The quality of decision procedures used to

arrive at a fundamental policy decision is one of arrive at a fundamental policy decision is one of the major determinants of a successful outcome.the major determinants of a successful outcome.

Most top-level leaders are capable of carrying-Most top-level leaders are capable of carrying-out the procedures that are essential for high-out the procedures that are essential for high-quality policymaking.quality policymaking.

Policymakers generally make no effort to use Policymakers generally make no effort to use high-quality procedures for arriving at a policy high-quality procedures for arriving at a policy decision if they regard the issue as unimportant.decision if they regard the issue as unimportant.

If one of the constraints is critical, policymakers If one of the constraints is critical, policymakers will give the constraint priority even if the issue will give the constraint priority even if the issue is very important.is very important.


Procedural criteria for effective Procedural criteria for effective decision-makingdecision-making Surveys a wide range of objectives.Surveys a wide range of objectives. Canvasses a wide range of alternatives.Canvasses a wide range of alternatives. Intensively searchers for new information relevant Intensively searchers for new information relevant

to the alternatives.to the alternatives. Correctly assimilates and takes account of new Correctly assimilates and takes account of new

information or expert judgments.information or expert judgments. Reconsiders the positive and negative Reconsiders the positive and negative

consequences of alternatives originally regarded consequences of alternatives originally regarded as unacceptable.as unacceptable.

Carefully examines costs and risks of negative Carefully examines costs and risks of negative consequences.consequences.

Makes detailed provisions for implementation and Makes detailed provisions for implementation and monitoring.monitoring.


Symptoms of poor decision-making.Symptoms of poor decision-making. Gross omissions in surveying objectives.Gross omissions in surveying objectives. Gross omissions in surveying alternatives.Gross omissions in surveying alternatives. Poor information search.Poor information search. Selective bias in processing information at Selective bias in processing information at

hand.hand. Failure to reconsider originally rejected Failure to reconsider originally rejected

alternatives.alternatives. Failure to examine major costs and risks of Failure to examine major costs and risks of

the preferred choice.the preferred choice. Failure to work out detailed implementation, Failure to work out detailed implementation,

monitoring and contingency plans.monitoring and contingency plans.

Vigilant problem solvingVigilant problem solving

Vigilant Problem SolvingVigilant Problem Solving


Challenge: Threat or Challenge: Threat or opportunity.opportunity. (e.g., crisis posing threat to vital (e.g., crisis posing threat to vital

interests)interests)


Step 1: Formulating the problem.Step 1: Formulating the problem. Q.1 What requirements should be met:Q.1 What requirements should be met:

Dangers to be averted.Dangers to be averted. Gains to be attained.Gains to be attained. Costs to be kept to tolerable levels?Costs to be kept to tolerable levels?

Q. 2 What seems to be the best Q. 2 What seems to be the best direction of solution?direction of solution?

Top-of-the-head survey of alternatives.Top-of-the-head survey of alternatives.


Step 2. Using informational Step 2. Using informational resources:resources: Q.3 What prior information can be Q.3 What prior information can be

recalled or retrieved?recalled or retrieved? Q.4 What new information should Q.4 What new information should

be obtained?be obtained? Expert’s forecasts.Expert’s forecasts. Intelligence reports, etc.Intelligence reports, etc.


Step 3. Analyzing and Step 3. Analyzing and reformulating:reformulating: Q.5 Any additions or changes in Q.5 Any additions or changes in

the requirements?the requirements? Q. 6 Any additional alternatives?Q. 6 Any additional alternatives? Q. 7 What additional information Q. 7 What additional information

might reduce uncertainties?might reduce uncertainties?


Step 4. Evaluating and selecting:Step 4. Evaluating and selecting: Q. 8 What are the pros and cons for Q. 8 What are the pros and cons for

each alternative?each alternative? Q. 9 Which alternative appears to be Q. 9 Which alternative appears to be

best?best? Q. 10 Any requirements unmet?Q. 10 Any requirements unmet?

If so, can they be relaxed or changed? If not, If so, can they be relaxed or changed? If not, might a modification be better?might a modification be better?


Step 4: Evaluating and selecting Step 4: Evaluating and selecting (contd.):(contd.): Q.11 How can potential costs and risks Q.11 How can potential costs and risks

be minimized?be minimized? Q. 12 What additional plans are needed Q. 12 What additional plans are needed

for implementation, monitoring, and for implementation, monitoring, and contingencies?contingencies?


Steps 1 through 4 are cyclical. Steps 1 through 4 are cyclical. Information feeds back and forth Information feeds back and forth through all of the steps.through all of the steps.

The cycling should also lead to The cycling should also lead to reconsider previous rejected reconsider previous rejected alternatives to make sure you are not alternatives to make sure you are not missing something critical.missing something critical.


Deciding after adequate search, appraisal, and Deciding after adequate search, appraisal, and planning – manifested by absence of the following planning – manifested by absence of the following defects in decision-making procedures:defects in decision-making procedures: Gross omissions in surveying objectives.Gross omissions in surveying objectives. Gross omissions in surveying alternatives.Gross omissions in surveying alternatives. Poor information search.Poor information search. Selective bias in processing information at hand.Selective bias in processing information at hand. Failure to reconsider originally rejected alternatives.Failure to reconsider originally rejected alternatives. Failure to examine major costs and risks of the Failure to examine major costs and risks of the

preferred choice.preferred choice. Failure to work out detailed implementation, Failure to work out detailed implementation,

monitoring and contingency plans.monitoring and contingency plans.


ClosureClosure Internal consolidation of the Internal consolidation of the

choice.choice. Bolstering it by playing up the Bolstering it by playing up the

advantages and playing down the advantages and playing down the disadvantages.disadvantages.

Soliciting supportive information.Soliciting supportive information. Refuting unwelcome information Refuting unwelcome information

about drawbacks.about drawbacks.


Closure.Closure. Social commitment to the choice:Social commitment to the choice:

Announcing it to interested parties.Announcing it to interested parties. Promoting it, especially among Promoting it, especially among

implementers and policy evaluators implementers and policy evaluators who are unenthusiastic.who are unenthusiastic.

Decision constraintsDecision constraints

Cognitive ConstraintsCognitive Constraints

Limited time.Limited time. Perceived limitations of available Perceived limitations of available

resources for information search and resources for information search and appraisal.appraisal.

Multiple tasks.Multiple tasks. Perplexing complexity of the issue.Perplexing complexity of the issue. Perceived lack of dependable Perceived lack of dependable

knowledge.knowledge. Ideological commitments.Ideological commitments.

Cognitive Decision RulesCognitive Decision Rules

Availability.Availability. Satisficing.Satisficing. Analogizing.Analogizing. Nutshell briefing.Nutshell briefing. Operational code (standard Operational code (standard

operating procecures).operating procecures).

Affiliative ConstraintsAffiliative Constraints

Need to maintain:Need to maintain: Power.Power. Status.Status. Compensation.Compensation. Social support.Social support.

Need for acceptability of new policy Need for acceptability of new policy within the organization.within the organization.

Affiliative Decision RulesAffiliative Decision Rules

Avoid punishment.Avoid punishment. ““Rig” acceptance.Rig” acceptance. Exercise one-upmanship in the Exercise one-upmanship in the

power struggle.power struggle. Groupthink: preserve group Groupthink: preserve group

harmony.harmony.

Egocentric (Self-Serving and Egocentric (Self-Serving and Emotive Constraints)Emotive Constraints)

Strong personal motive:Strong personal motive: Greed, desire for fame, etc.Greed, desire for fame, etc.

Arousal of an emotional need: Arousal of an emotional need: e.g., anger, elation.e.g., anger, elation.

Emotional stress of decisional Emotional stress of decisional conflict.conflict.

Egocentric (Self-Serving and Egocentric (Self-Serving and Emotive Decision Rules)Emotive Decision Rules)

Personal aggrandizement: “What’s in it for Personal aggrandizement: “What’s in it for me?”me?”

Angry retaliation.Angry retaliation. Audacity: “Can do!”Audacity: “Can do!” Elated choice: “Wow! Grab it!”Elated choice: “Wow! Grab it!” Defensive avoidance: procrastinate, pass-Defensive avoidance: procrastinate, pass-

the-buck, or bolster.the-buck, or bolster. Hypervigilant escape: “Get the hell out Hypervigilant escape: “Get the hell out

fast!”fast!”

inst 275 – administrative processes in government lecture 9 – leadership and decision making

Documents

political model

rational model

process model decisions

decision makers

consequences of alternatives

decision making slide

optimal outcome

policy decisions