institutional equity research itc limited (itc in) india...

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

ITC Limited (ITC IN)

All eyes on cigarette price hike in H2FY19

INDIA | FMCG | Quarterly Update

26 October 2018

Top takeaways from Q2FY19 ITC 2QFY19 results largely were in line with our estimates as cigarette volume probably

grew 7% yoy, higher than our expectation of 5-6%. However, cigarette EBIT margin declined c.100bps yoy to 71.3% due to – (1) higher salience of low-margin 64mm cigarettes, (2) damaged stock due to Kerala floods, and (3) ancillary costs relating to the new graphic warnings with effect from 1

st September 2018.

Cigarette EBIT growth (8.7%) was in line with our estimates, despite miss in margins due to higher-than-expected volume growth. For ITC’s stock, which has remained sideways since 4-5 years, to see meaningful appreciation, double digit EBIT growth is critical. For cigarette EBIT growth (which has been languishing in high single digits since the past few quarters) to move into low-teen territory, the following needs to fall in place: (1) cigarette-volume recovery (note that 2HFY19 also has a favourable base), and (2) pricing action (has not initiated a price hike for more than year) in 2HFY19, since pricing benefit has already got anniversaries from July 2018.

FMCG business continued its recovery (+13% yoy) driven by strong growth in branded packaged foods (staples and snacks segment) and the personal care portfolio (deodorants and liquids). This business, which has been volatile on the profitability front since inception due to continuous investment in new categories, is making significant strides (EBIT was up almost 2x in 2QFY19) based on enhanced scale, product-mix improvement, integrated manufacturing facilities, and cost-efficiency initiatives.

All ducks in a row for paper and hotels business

Hotels EBIT grew 267% yoy due to higher ARR, operating leverage, and F&B contribution. We expect strong 2HFY19 as: (1) peak season kicks in and (2) the company has got possession of Goa property (252 rooms) towards the end of September 2018.

Paperboard EBIT grew 13% yoy due to import pulp substitution, better product mix, and higher realisation.

Agri business EBIT fell 8% yoy due to lower trading opportunities in the high-margin leaf-tobacco segment.

Outlook and valuation: ITC’s stock has massively underperformed the benchmark/FMCG Index over the last few years due to steep increase in taxation and unfavourable regulatory changes in cigarettes, which lowered PAT CAGR to 6% over FY14-18. We expect a sharp re-rating in its valuation multiple based on: (1) most regulatory headwinds are behind us; we see low-teen EBIT growth for cigarettes over the next two years, (2) FMCG profitability to see gradual and consistent improvement, as integrated manufacturing facilities start, and economies of scale kick in, and (3) capex-intensive and cyclical (paper and hotel) business seeing an upturn.

We remain bullish on ITC and maintain our target at Rs 355 (30x Dec-20 EPS). Key risks: (1) adverse government regulations / steep increase in cigarettes taxation, and (2) faster stake sale by SUUTI to meet government fiscal deficit target.

BUY (Maintain) CMP RS 280 / TARGET RS 355 (+26%)

COMPANY DATA

O/S SHARES (MN) : 12241

MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 3522

MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 48.2

52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 323 / 250

LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 60

PAR VALUE (RS) : 1

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, %

Sep 18 Jun 18 Mar 18

FII / NRI : 17.4 17.5 18.0

FI / MF : 37.7 37.6 37.1

NON PRO : 2.7 2.6 2.5

PUBLIC & OTHERS : 42.2 42.3 42.4

Key Financials

Rs mn FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 4,41,878 4,85,353 5,32,789

EBIDTA 1,73,818 1,93,139 2,14,193

Net Profit 1,20,045 1,33,156 1,47,554

EPS, Rs 9.8 10.9 12.0

PER, x 28.6 25.8 23.2

EV/EBIDTA, x 18.9 16.9 15.1

ROE, % 6.3 5.9 5.5

Vishal Gutka (+ 9122 6246 4118) [email protected] Preeyam Tolia (+ 9122 6246 4129) [email protected]

(Rs mn) 2QFY19 2QFY18 yoy 1QFY19 qoq PC yoy growth estimates %

Comments

Volume growth est. (% yoy) 7.0 (7.0) 1.5 9.7

Net Sales 1,08,912 1,02,264 6.5 1,05,547 3.2 9.7

Staff costs 5,963 6,065 (1.7) 7,430 (19.7) 10.0

Other operating expenses 19,869 15,897 25.0 16,526 20.2 5.0

EBITDA 42,060 37,615 11.8 42,021 0.1 13.9

EBITDA margin (%) 38.6 36.8 184 bps 39.8 -119 bps 138 bps

PBT 43,691 39,443 10.8 42,999 1.6 12.7

Tax rate (%) 32.4 33.1 -70 bps 34.4 -207 bps 93 bps

Adj. PAT 29,547 26,398 11.9 28,187 4.8 11.1


ITC LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Cigarettes volume growth of 7%, higher thanstreet estimates of 5-6%

Higher-than-expected volume growth led to inline EBIT growth despite margin miss

FMCG revenue driven by strong growth in branded foods and personal care portfolio

2.0

5.0

-

3.0 2.0

(7.0)

(4.0) (3.0)

1.5

7.0

-8

-6

-4

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0

2

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8 Cigaratte Volume (%)

8.0 8.4

1.7

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7.8 7.6

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14 FMCG sales gr (%)



7th

consecutive qtr of positive Ebit margin in FMCG business

2QFY19 segment-wise results Segment sales Q2FY19 Q2FY18 YoY (%) Q1FY19 QoQ (%)

Cigarette 50,261 45,542 10.4% 51,276 -2.0% Other FMCG 31,604 28,041 12.7% 28,700 10.1% Hotel 3,626 3,002 20.8% 3,413 6.2% Agri Business 22,197 19,680 12.8% 31,513 -29.6% Paper Board 14,245 13,094 8.8% 13,558 5.1%

Segment EBIT Q2FY19 Q2FY18 YoY (%) Q1FY19 QoQ (%)

Cigarette 35,791 32,917 8.7% 35,584 0.6% Other FMCG 585 205 185.3% 501 16.6% Hotel 156 42 267.0% 132 17.7% Agri Business 2,361 2,562 -7.9% 1,945 21.4% Paper Board 3,109 2,742 13.4% 2,957 5.2%

EBIT Margins Q2FY19 Q2FY18 YoY (%) Q1FY19 QoQ (%)

Cigarette 71.2% 72.3% -100bps 69.4% 200bps Other FMCG 1.8% 0.7% 100bps 1.7% 0bps Hotel 4.3% 1.4% 300bps 3.9% 0bps Agri Business 10.6% 13.0% -200bps 6.2% 400bps Paper Board 21.8% 20.9% 100bps 21.8% 0bps

Source: Company. PhillipCapital India Research

(0.2) (0.1)

(0.8)

1.9

0.2

0.7

1.6

3.0

1.7 1.8

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5 FMCG EBIT margins (%)



Two-year forward P/E Band EV/EBITDA band

Source: Company. PhillipCapital India Research

8x

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Financials

Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net sales 4,02,547 4,41,878 4,85,353 5,32,789

Growth, % 2 10 10 10

Other income 3,729 5,779 6,357 6,993

Total income 4,06,275 4,47,658 4,91,710 5,39,782

Raw material expenses -1,57,900 -1,72,111 -1,89,323 -2,08,255

Employee expenses -24,875 -26,740 -28,746 -30,902

Other Operating expenses -68,091 -74,988 -80,503 -86,432

EBITDA (Core) 1,55,410 1,73,818 1,93,139 2,14,193

Growth, % 6.6 11.8 11.1 10.9

Margin, % 38.6 39.3 39.8 40.2

Depreciation -11,454 -12,836 -14,446 -16,055

EBIT 1,43,956 1,60,982 1,78,693 1,98,138

Growth, % 6.3 11.8 11.0 10.9

Margin, % 35.8 36.4 36.8 37.2

Interest paid -867 -693 -693 -693

Other Non-Operating Income 21,298 22,150 24,365 26,802

Pre-tax profit 4,129 0 0 0

Tax provided 1,68,517 1,82,439 2,02,365 2,24,247

Profit after tax -56,285 -62,394 -69,209 -76,692

Net Profit 1,12,233 1,20,045 1,33,156 1,47,554

Growth, % 0 0 0 0

Net Profit (adjusted) 1,08,104 1,20,045 1,33,156 1,47,554

Unadj. shares (m) 12,247 12,247 12,247 12,247

Wtd avg shares (m) 12,247 12,247 12,247 12,247

Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Cash & bank 25,949 39,741 60,283 88,889 Marketable securities at cost 99,035 99,035 99,035 99,035 Debtors 23,570 25,873 28,419 31,196 Inventory 72,372 79,443 87,259 95,787 Loans & advances 42 42 42 42 Other current assets 24,064 24,064 24,064 24,064 Total current assets 2,45,030 2,68,196 2,99,100 3,39,012 Investments 1,34,938 1,34,938 1,34,938 1,34,938 Gross fixed assets 1,86,901 2,11,901 2,36,901 2,61,901 Less: Depreciation -31,241 -44,077 -58,523 -74,578 Add: Capital WIP 50,256 50,256 50,256 50,256 Net fixed assets 2,05,916 2,18,079 2,28,634 2,37,579 Non-current assets 37,743 37,743 37,743 37,743 Total assets 6,23,813 6,59,143 7,00,601 7,49,458 Current liabilities 88,566 91,909 95,604 99,636 Provisions 1,219 1,338 1,470 1,614 Total current liabilities 89,785 93,247 97,074 1,01,250 Non-current liabilities 20,027 20,027 20,027 20,027 Total liabilities 1,09,812 1,13,275 1,17,101 1,21,277 Paid-up capital 12,204 12,204 12,204 12,204 Reserves & surplus 5,01,796 5,33,664 5,71,296 6,15,977 Shareholders’ equity 5,14,001 5,45,869 5,83,500 6,28,181 Total equity & liabilities 6,23,813 6,59,143 7,00,601 7,49,458

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

Cash Flow

FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Pre-tax profit 1,68,517 1,82,439 2,02,365 2,24,247 Depreciation 11,454 12,836 14,446 16,055 Chg in working capital 8,551 -5,912 -6,535 -7,130 Total tax paid -57,020 -62,394 -69,209 -76,692 Other operating activities -4,994 0 0 0 Cash flow from operating activities 1,26,509 1,26,969 1,41,067 1,56,479 Capital expenditure -33,204 -25,000 -25,000 -25,000 Chg in investments -50,083 0 0 0 Chg in marketable securities 1,963 0 0 0 Other investing activities 14,411 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing activities -66,912 -25,000 -25,000 -25,000 Free cash flow 59,596 1,01,969 1,16,067 1,31,479 Equity raised/(repaid) 16,447 0 0 0 Debt raised/(repaid) -69 0 0 0 Dividend (incl. tax) -68,803 -88,177 -95,525 -1,02,873 Cash flow from financing activities -52,424 -88,177 -95,525 -1,02,873 Net chg in cash 7,172 13,792 20,542 28,606

Valuation Ratios

FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Per Share data EPS (INR) 8.8 9.8 10.9 12.0

Growth, % 5.4 11.0 10.9 10.8 Book NAV/share (INR) 42.0 44.6 47.6 51.3 FDEPS (INR) 8.8 9.8 10.9 12.0 CEPS (INR) 9.4 10.9 12.1 13.4 CFPS (INR) 9.8 8.6 9.5 10.6 DPS (INR) 4.7 6.0 6.5 7.0 Return ratios

Return on assets (%) 19.4 18.8 19.7 20.4 Return on equity (%) 21.0 22.0 22.8 23.5 Return on capital employed (%) 22.4 21.9 22.8 23.6 Turnover ratios

Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 Sales/Total assets (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Sales/Net FA (x) 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 Working capital/Sales (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Receivable days 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 Inventory days 65.6 65.6 65.6 65.6 Payable days 49.2 49.5 49.9 50.2 Working capital days 28.5 31.0 33.2 35.2 Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 Quick ratio (x) 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 Interest cover (x) 166.1 232.2 257.8 285.8 Net debt/Equity (%) (5.0) (7.3) (10.3) (14.1) Valuation PER (x) 31.7 28.6 25.8 23.2 PEG (x) - y-o-y growth 5.9 2.6 2.4 2.1 Price/Book (x) 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.5 EV/Net sales (x) 8.2 7.4 6.7 6.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.3 18.9 16.9 15.1 EV/EBIT (x) 23.0 20.4 18.3 16.4



Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year.

Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL -15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than -15%

SELL <= -15% Target price is less than or equal to -15%.

S (TP 270) S (TP 270)

S (TP 270) B (TP 340)

B (TP 375)

B (TP 375)

B (TP 275) B (TP 300)

B (TP 300) B (TP 300)

B (TP 300)

B (TP 345) B (TP 345)

B (TP 310) B (TP 310)

B (TP 325)

B (TP 355)

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300

350

400

O-15 D-15 J-16 M-16 A-16 J-16 J-16 S-16 O-16 D-16 J-17 M-17 A-17 J-17 J-17 S-17 O-17 D-17 J-18 M-18 A-18 J-18 J-18 S-18



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