integrated climate observing and monitoring: a new paradigmintegrated climate observing and...

1Integrated Climate Observing and Monitoring: A New Paradigm

Global Monitoring Annual Conference

Earth System Research Laboratory

Integrated Climate Observing and Monitoring:

A New ParadigmThomas R. Karl

Interim Director, NOAA Climate ServiceDirector, NOAA National Climatic Data Center,

Asheville, North Carolina

May 19, 2010 -- Boulder, Colorado

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2Integrated Climate Observing and Monitoring: A New Paradigm 2Integrated Climate Observing and Monitoring: A New Paradigm

Traditional and Historic NOAA Practice

• Observing system justified on the basis of a requirement, but focused on a single observing method, e.g.,

– Satellite platform• Geostationary• Low earth orbiting

– In situ observations• Mobile• Fixed

– Monitoring• Entirely separate activity


New Paradigm for NOAA

• Consider multiple observing systems for specific Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)– For example – Sea Level:

• Tide gauges• Altimetry• Sub-surface ocean temperature• Glacier• Ice sheets


Characteristics of “Climate” Observing Systems

• Science-based

• Operations and maintenance are a high priority

• Measure 1 or more variables using a single approach

• Calibration is a high priority


Characteristics of Integrated “Climate” Observing System

• All of the previous slide• Measure a single or multiple variables using

multiple approaches– Independent observing

methods for the same variable


Characteristics of “End to End” Climate Monitoring

• Transformation of observations into a time series with known uncertainties related to time-dependent and random errors– Requires peer-reviewed, science based processing– Transparency and reproducibility– Expert analysis and interpretation– Open reviews– Public availability of all steps (barring classified information)

• Independent science teams to transform time series into homogeneous climate time series with known structural errors

• Communications – unmet need

7Integrated Climate Observing and Monitoring: A New Paradigmback cover front cover

BAMS State of the Climate in 2009:A mean to assess current paradigm


BAMS State of the Climate Report • 302 authors from 168 institutions in 47 nations• Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,

Colombia, Comoros, Costa Rica, Cuba, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Niger, Paraguay, Peru, Portugal, Russia, Seychelles, Solomon Islands, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe


Essential Climate Variable: Tropospheric Temperature

Baseline: mean of balloon-

borne global in-

situ datasets

OBSERVING

Satellite-borne (MSU, from multiple sources)

Balloon-borne (RATPAC)

Reanalysis Data


Independent Science Teams Analyzing the Same Essential Climate Variable

Baseline: mean of

three major global in-

situ datasets

Decadal-average anomalies of these datasets

Annual intercomparisonof anomalies from each data set. Establish how the different data sets perform vs. each other.

Global Surface Temperature


Essential Climate Variable:Global Precipitation

Precipitation data sets contain varying composition of satellite-derived and in-situ observed precipitation.

GHCN In SituGPCP (-GHCN) BlendGCPP (-GHCN) In Situ

12Integrated Climate Observing and Monitoring: A New Paradigm 12

Domain Essential Climate Variable 2007 2008 2009

Ocean surface Sea surface temperature Y Y YOcean surface Sea surface salinity Y Y YOcean surface Sea level Y Y YOcean surface Sea state N N NOcean surface Sea ice Y Y YOcean surface Current Y Y YOcean surface Ocean color (for biological activity) Y Y YOcean surface Carbon dioxide partial pressure P P P

Ocean subsurface Temperature Y Y YOcean subsurface Salinity N N NOcean subsurface Current P P POcean subsurface Nutrients N N NOcean subsurface Carbon Y P POcean subsurface Ocean tracers N N NOcean subsurface Phytoplankton N N N

Terestrial Soil moisture and wetness P P PTerestrial Surface ground temperature N N NTerestrial Subsurface temperature and moisture N N NTerestrial Snow and ice cover Y Y YTerrestrial Permafrost & Seasonally Frozen Ground P P PTerestrial Glaciers and ice sheets Y P P

Add'l Terrestrial River discharge P PAdd'l Terrestrial Water use N NAdd'l Terrestrial Ground water N NAdd'l Terrestrial Lake levels N PAdd'l Terrestrial Albedo N NAdd'l Terrestrial Land cover (including vegetation type) P N

Add'l TerrestrialFraction of absorbed photosyntheticallyactive radiation (fAPAR) Y Y

Add'l Terrestrial Leaf area index (LAI) N NAdd'l Terrestrial Biomass N PAdd'l Terrestrial Fire disturbance N P

Domain Essential Climate Variable 2007 2008 2009

Atmospheric Surface Air temperature Y Y YAtmospheric Surface Precipitation Y Y YAtmospheric Surface Air pressure N Y YAtmospheric Surface Surface radiation budget N N NAtmospheric Surface Wind speed and direction P P PAtmospheric Surface Water vapor N N N

Atmos Upper AirEarth radiation budget (including solar irradiance) P Y Y

Atmos Upper AirUpper-air temperature (including MSU radiances) Y Y Y

Atmos Upper Air Wind speed and direction N N NAtmos Upper Air Water vapor N Y YAtmos Upper Air Cloud properties P Y Y

Atmos Composition Carbon dioxide Y Y YAtmos Composition Methane Y Y YAtmos Composition Ozone Y Y Y

Atmos Composition [Other long-lived greenhouse gases]: N N PAtmos Composition Nitrous oxide Y Y YAtmos Composition Chlorofluorocarbons Y Y YAtmos Composition Hydrochlorofluorocarbons Y Y YAtmos Composition Hydrofluorocarbons Y Y YAtmos Composition Sulphur hexaflurorides Y Y YAtmos Composition Perfluorocarbons N N NAtmos Composition Aerosol properties. Y Y y

State of the Climate – Essential Climate Variables

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Essential Climate Variables (ECVs):Atmospheric Surface

ECV 2009 Variable SourceAir temperature Y Sfc Temp GHCN ERSST

Sfc Temp HadCrutSfc Temp GISS HadCRUT3 NCDC

Precipitation Y Precipitation RSS GHCNPrecip Anomalies GHCN GPCC GPCPPrecip (Ocean

Essential Climate Variables (ECVs):Atmospheric Upper-Air

ECV ‘09 Variable SourceEarth rad’n budget Y TOA ERB CERESUpper-air temperature Y Lower Strat RSS-MSU

Lower Strat HadAt2 RATPAC RICH UAH RSS ERAiLower Strat ERAi ERA-40Lower Trop ERAiLower Trop HadAt2 RATPAC RICH UAH RSS ERAiLower Trop ERAi ERA-40

Wind speed & direction NWater vapor Y Total Column WV SSM/I GPS

Total Column WV GPS SSM/I COSMICTotal Column WV SSM/I AMSR-E

Cloud properties Y Cloudiness PATMOS-xCloud anomaly PATMOS-xCloud anomaly ISCCP MODIS MISR PATMOS-x Sfc Obs

KEY Satellite-based In-situ Ground-BasedRemote Sensing Reanalysis14

Essential Climate Variables (ECVs):Atmospheric Composition

ECV ‘09 Variable SourceCarbon dioxide Y monthly CO2 ESRL observatoriesMethane YOzone Y Ozone GOME-2

Ozone GOME-1 GOME-2

Ozone GOME- spectrometer

Upr Strat O3 lidar micro spect. SBUV SAGE HALOEOther long-lived GHGs PNitrous oxide Y ESRL observatoriesChlorofluorocarbons Y ESRL observatoriesHydrochlorofluorocarbons Y ESRL observatoriesHydrofluorocarbons Y ESRL observatoriesSulphur hexaflurorides YPerfluorocarbons NAerosol properties. y


Essential Climate Variables (ECVs):Ocean Surface

ECV ‘09 Variable SourceSea surface temperature Y SST OISST

SST OISSTSST ERSST v3b

Sea surface salinity Y Salinity ArgoSea level Y SSH SSALto / Duacs UHawaii gauge

Global MSL TOPEX/Poseidion JasonGlobal MSL Argo GRACESea level Variability Tide gauges

Sea state NSea ice Y Sea Ice Extent NSIDCCurrent Y Zonal anomalies OSCAR

Zonal anomalies OSCAROcean color Y Chlorophyll SeaWIFS

SeaWIFSCO2 partial pressure P Air-sea flux Park et al


Essential Climate Variables (ECVs):Ocean Sub-Surface

ECV ‘09 Variable SourceTemperature Y Upper OHCA Hadley NODC PMEL

Upper OHCA various XBTSalinity NCurrent P MOC Components MOCHA UK-NERCNutrients NCarbon P dissolved inorganic CO2 CLIVAROcean tracers NPhytoplankton N

KEY Satellite-based In-situ Ground-BasedRemote Sensing Reanalysis

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Essential Climate Variables (ECVs):Terrestrial

ECV ‘09 Variable SourceSoil moisture and wetness PSurface ground temperature NSubsurface temperature and moisture NSnow and ice cover Y Snow Cover Extent GOESPermafrost PGlaciers and ice sheets P Glacier mass observationsRiver discharge P River Discharge Gauge dataWater use NGround water NLake levels Y Lake Levels JASONAlbedo NLand cover (including veg. type) NFraction of absorbed photosynthetically active rad’n Y fAPAR SeaWIFSLeaf area index (LAI) NBiomass P Biomass Burning GEMS/MACCFire disturbance P Biomass Burning (proxy) GEMS/MACC



Conclusions

• NOAA would do well to use a new paradigm in its strategy for observing and monitoring initiatives

• Integrated “Climate” Observing– Multiple platform long-term

monitoring requests

– End-to-end observing andmonitoring

– Communication

Slide Number 1Traditional and Historic NOAA PracticeNew Paradigm for NOAACharacteristics of �“Climate” Observing SystemsCharacteristics of �Integrated “Climate” Observing SystemCharacteristics of �“End to End” Climate MonitoringBAMS State of the Climate in 2009:�A mean to assess current paradigm BAMS State of the Climate Report Essential Climate Variable: �Tropospheric TemperatureIndependent Science Teams Analyzing the Same Essential Climate VariableEssential Climate Variable:�Global PrecipitationState of the Climate – Essential Climate VariablesEssential Climate Variables (ECVs):�Atmospheric SurfaceEssential Climate Variables (ECVs):�Atmospheric Upper-AirEssential Climate Variables (ECVs):�Atmospheric CompositionEssential Climate Variables (ECVs):�Ocean SurfaceEssential Climate Variables (ECVs):�Ocean Sub-SurfaceEssential Climate Variables (ECVs):�TerrestrialConclusions

integrated climate observing and monitoring: a new paradigmintegrated climate observing and...

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