observing climate variability and change thomas r. karl
DESCRIPTION
Observing Climate Variability and Change Thomas R. Karl National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service National Climatic Data Center Asheville, NC 28801-5001, USA. 1) How has the climate changed or varied?. PHYSICAL. PROCESS. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Observing ClimateVariability and Change
Thomas R. Karl
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service
National Climatic Data Center
Asheville, NC 28801-5001, USA
PHYSICAL
PROCESS
BIOLOGICALPROCESSES
CLIMATE CHANGE FORCINGS
}$IMPACTS C
ROP
FOREST MIGRATION
YIELD
COASTAL
HABITAT
$
1) How has the climate changed or varied?
2) How well do we understand the climate system ?
3) What are the causes of climate change and variability?
4) How can we characterize the impacts of climate change?
}
How significant are the uncertainties?
State and Forcings Variables
Few have quantitative confidence intervals (CIs) (including time-dependent biases) e.g., global surface temperature, CO2
Most CIs do not include time-dependent biases
For many, CIs are uncertain or unknown
Why?
Adhering to climate observing principles and guidelines still does not have a high prioritySmoothed annual anomalies of global combined
land-surface air and sea surface temperatures (oC).
Adoption of ten principles for climate monitoring
More comprehensive global observations--- Prioritization concept
Improved global telecommunications
Better use of data… more products
Critical need for system monitoring and oversight responsibility --- Examples
The Climate Observing System: What is needed?
The Climate Observing System: What is needed?
Adherence to Ten Principles for both space- and surface-based observations
1. Management of Network Change
2. Parallel Testing
3. Metadata
4. Data Quality and Continuity
5. Environmental Assessments
The international framework for sharing data is vital.
6. Historical Significance
7. Complementary Data
8. Climate Requirements
9. Continuity of Purpose
10. Data and Metadata Access
Definition of Terms
Time to Pay-Off – the time required for an impact to be realized, i.e., upgrading an existing system or implementing a new system
Feasibility – readiness to implement the observing system considering technical aspects and resource requirements
Impact – potential for reducing uncertainties
A Global Network of Reference Quality Radiosonde Sites
Example: Demonstrating Prioritization Concept
Temperature Indicators “Climate Impacts”
Temperature Indicators “Climate Understanding”
Hydrological Indicators “Climate Impacts”
Hydrologic Indicators “Climate Understanding”
What are the causes of climate change and variability
The Climate Observing System: What is needed?
Observing Systems Oversight and System Monitoring Capability
Establish climate requirements for observing systems (atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, cryosphere), such as
weather services do today
Includes instruments on satellites
Spatial and temporal sampling, etc.
Reprocessing and reanalysis
Tracks the performance of the observations, the gathering of the data, and the processing systems
Resources and influence to fix problems
Real-time Network Performance Monitoring
U.S. Climate Reference Network
Five different research teams using independent methods to identify time-dependent biases in the tropospheric temperature records
Teams:NOAA – GFDL
– NCDCUniv. of AlabamaUK Meteorological OfficeTexas A & M University)
Observing and Data System Deficiencies
Courtesy: Free et al(in review BAMS)
Percent of Teams Identifying Biases
Adoption of ten principles for climate monitoring
More comprehensive global observations
Improved global telecommunications
Better use of data… more products
Critical need for system monitoring and oversight responsibility
The Climate Observing System: What is needed?
Some Variables are Effectively Monitored for Trend
Scripps Institute of Oceanography
NOAA
Impact of Satellite Orbital Drift Will be fixed on US NPOESS (2009)
Ascending minus descending temperatures MSU2 JJA 1989-91 from NOAA 11
Observing and Data System Deficiencies
Diurnal corrections required for each satellite.
Changes in orbits and equator crossing times of satellites are aliased onto the diurnal cycle, requiring corrections
MSU channel 2 temperatures over land, from Wentz (black lower)and Christy-Spencer (red lower) and difference (top).
Effect of Calibration Target Correction on MSU Channel 2
Observing and Data System Deficiencies
Courtesy F. Wentz