integrated modelling, scenario assessment & decision...
TRANSCRIPT
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Integrated Modelling, Scenario Assessment & Decision Support
Final Project Workshop INTECRAL, March 2017
University of Jena Annika KünneSven KralischJuliana Santos
codematix GmbH Jena Carsten BuschChristian Schwartze
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• Pressures on River Basins– Overexploitation & pollution
(population growth, deforestation, intenseagricultue)
– Climate Change(increasing dry periods, more extreme events)
• Impacts– Degradation of land and water resources
(e.g. soil, wetlands) and hydrologicalecosystem services
– Floods, droughts, water scarcity, waterpollution, soil erosion, landslides, …
Challenges
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…to provide knowledge-based support for integrated land and water resources management
Overall Objectives
1. Understand processes and their interactions
2. Create computer models of integrated eco-hydrological systems
3. Evaluate scenarios and assess their impacts using computer models
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Final Project Workshop INTECRAL, March 2017
From Environmental Observations and Measurements…
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…to Abstraction and Generalization…
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…to a Conceptual Model…
Driving data: P, T, …
ET
Interception Snow
Soilwater
Groundwater
Upper zone
Lower zone
Additional data: Radiation …
Runoff
Surface RO
Interflow 1
Interflow 2
Baseflow
Infiltration DPS
MPS LPS
MPS LPS
MPS LPS
HRU 1
HRU 4
HRU 2 HRU 3
HRU 5
HRU 6
Reach 1 Reach 3
Reach 2
SVNQ
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Study Area
Guapi-Macacu river basin: 1265 km² Dois Rios river basin: 3120 km²Muriaé river basin: 8165 km²
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Spatial Data Time Series Data
Eco-hydrological System Analysis
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Example Results: Remote Sensing
Land Use
Classification
Muriaé River Basin
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Example Results: Hydrological Modelling Rio Dois Rios
Efficiency CriteriaR²: 0.84 , Nash Sutcliffe: 0.65, logNash Sutcliffe: 0.81, PBIAS: 21.58
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12/25/2003 5/8/2005 9/20/2006 2/2/2008 6/16/2009
Pre
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Ru
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m³/
s]
Precipitation Observed J2K / PM
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Example Results: Modelling
Simulated base flow, interflow and surfacerunoff [l/m²] withinthe Dois Rios Basin(2006 – 2013)
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Example Results: Modelling (2)
Simulated surfacerunoff [l/m²] withinthe Dois Rios Basin(2006 – 2013)
Efficiency criteria:NS: 0.81logNS: 0.85R²: 0.82PBIAS: -4.49
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Example Results: Climate Scenarios
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10/10/2006 7/6/2009 4/1/2012 12/27/2014 9/22/2017 6/18/2020 3/15/2023
Simulated Runoff
Past FutureToday
?
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Climate Input Data for Modelling from Cordex
EC-Earth RCP 4.5 vs. EC-Earth RCP 8.5
Example Results: Hydrological Modelling of Climate Scenarios for Rio Dois Rios
RCP 4.5: ΔT = 1.8°C
RCP 8.5: ΔT = 3.1°C
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EC-Earth Precipitation1976 - 2005
EC-Earth RCP 8.52011 - 2040
EC-Earth RCP 8.52041 - 2070
EC-Earth RCP 8.52071 - 2100
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
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EC-Earth Total Runoff1976 - 2005
EC-Earth RCP 8.52011 - 2040
EC-Earth RCP 8.52041 - 2070
EC-Earth RCP 8.52071 - 2100
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
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Main Differences – Runoff from 1975 until 2100
Dry season –becomes dryer
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Main Differences – Runoff from 1975 until 2100
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Historic Runoff 1976 - 2005 Future Trend 2071 - 2100
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High Flows and Floods from 1975 until 2100
1975 - 2005 2011 – 2040 2041 – 2070 2071 - 2100
Small FloodsLarge Floods
More floods during wet season
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Irrigation demand = soil water deficit
Options: 1. Drip irrigation
2. Flood irrigation
3. Sprinkler irrigation
Where: Barracão dos Mendes
Scenario: Irrigation Simulation
(Pictures © Wikimedia Commons)
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Increasing environmental data availability, growing computer hardware performance and improving eco-hydrological process understanding
… generate new challenges:
• Information management
• Model/data integration
• Making data and processingworkflows easily usable
• Communication of results
Technical Challenges
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Technical Solution
Integrated Land Management
System
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• Eco-hydrological modelling• need for land-use and land-cover information (model parametrization)
expert knowledge: in hydrological modelling and remote sensing
• On-demand, browser- and wizard-driven, workflow-based• HRUweb: delineation of modelling entities
• webIMX: remote sensing image classification
Data Processing for Eco-Hydrological Modelling
parameter / maps
…parameter / maps
HRUs
landuse classification
…
central workflow management
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Putting it all together…
webIMX
e.g.:
• densitynormalizationmode
• minimum cellsize
• training sites
• minimumobject size
• …
HRUweb
e.g.:
• physiographicdata inputs• DEM• soils• landuse
• reclass rules
• minimumsubbasins size
• minimum HRU size
• …
webIMXworkflow = Taverna Models
HydrologicalModel
(e.g. Jams/J2000)
e.g.:
• modelparameters
• HRUs
• …
…
…
HRUwebworkflow = Taverna Models
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Technical SolutionG
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• data inputs – via upload or Google Drive / Dropbox
• data processing with ILMSimage(server-side image processing library)
– image preparation
– image segmentation
– automatic classification
– training (class references)
– supervised classification
– data export
webIMX – what it does…
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• intermediate data and results• available for download in
result browser
• classification results (GeoTiff/Shape)
• segmentation results / cells
• optional vector smoothing
webIMX Results
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Technical SolutionR
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Integrated Land Management
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• data inputs – via upload or individual data
catalog
• data processing with open-source GRASS-GIS– data preparation
– watershed basin analysis
– data reclassification
– GIS overlay analysis and generalization
– subbasin-by-subbasin approaches
– flow routing based topologies (HRUs/reaches)
– collecting statistics (per HRU)
– data provision using established GIS formats
HRUweb – what it does…
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HRUweb – wizard steps and maps (selection)
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• intermediate data• available at
any time via result browser
• particularlyraster maps, shapefiles
• final GIS dataset containing• HRU geodataset
• HRU parameter table
• stream network
• reach routing information
• subbasins / watersheds
HRUweb Results
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Technical SolutionR
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Integrated Land Management
System
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Data Management
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• INTECRAL River Basin Information System (RBIS)
– Data management, sharing, analysis and visualization
– Web-based, open-source
– Full read/write access to all data
– Standard interfaces to external apps
• Data collected
– 200+ time-series of climate, rain, water quality & quantity
– 80+ geospatial datasets
– …
http://intecral.uni-jena.de/rbis
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INTECRAL-RBIS Data Types
Time series• measured and simulated
time series
• data source description
Time series• measured and simulated
time series
• data source description
Geodata• interactive maps• data exploration• web-map services
Geodata• interactive maps• data exploration• web-map services
Observations• Study sites• Field measurements
• Soil• Vegetation
Observations• Study sites• Field measurements
• Soil• Vegetation
Metadata based on ISO standardsMetadata based on ISO standards
Documents• text documents• pictures/movies• raw/binary files
Documents• text documents• pictures/movies• raw/binary files
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Technical SolutionR
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Library Model
JAMS Modelling System
Design
Prepare data
Parameterize
Run
Calibrate
Analyze
Design
Prepare data
Parameterize
Run
Calibrate
Analyze
Design
Prepare data
Parameterize
Run
Calibrate
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• Automated modelling workflow
1. Build model locally
2. Upload model data to server
3. Start simulation on server
4. Download results from server
Web-based Modelling
WWW
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Summary
• Collected data and developed models allow forhydrological modelling and scenario impactassessment in the whole state ofRio de Janeiro
• Web-based tools ensure easy andflexible processing of requiredinput data
• Models can be adaptedto future requirements
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Training course– Hydrological
Modelling withJAMS / J2KJune 2015,
Nova Friburgo
Training course –Geo-Hydrological Tools for River Basin Management, November 2016, Niterói
Upcoming course: Next week (March 20th - 24th) in Niterói
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Funded by
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Ritter, Michael E. The Physical Environment: an Introduction to Physical Geography.20160912. http://www.earthonlinemedia.com/ebooks/tpe_3e/title_page.html
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• Initial model setup Rio Dois Rios (2006 –2013)
Modeling Results Dois Rios (preliminary)
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R² Nash-Sutcliffe Log Nash-Sutcliffe Pbias
0.76 0.56 0.55 9.74
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Spatial Modeling Results Dois Rios
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Simulated spatialbase flow, interflowand surface runoff[l/m²] within theDois Rios watershedat station Dois Rios from 2006 – 2013.
Final Project Workshop INTECRAL, March 2017
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44Final Project Workshop INTECRAL, March 2017
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45Final Project Workshop INTECRAL, March 2017
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Environmental Modelling
• Data preprocessing
– Data analysis (proof of homogeneity)
– Data correction
– Trend detection
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Mann-Kenndall Test for Station Campos (mean annualtemperature andrelative humidity1961 – 2013).
Data Acquisition
Data Management
ModellingIDSS Development
Final Project Workshop INTECRAL, March 2017