Integrating Climate Change into

Oconto County Hazard Mitigation Planning

Julia NoordykNOAA Coastal Storms Program

Outreach Coordinator

UW Sea Grant

Sea Grant, really? In Wisconsin?

NOAA’s National Sea Grant College Program is a network of 33 programs in EVERY coastal and Great Lakes state.

Applying science-based knowledge to solving urgent, coastal problems.

Sea Grant: Who & Where We Are

Focus areas:

• Coastal engineering

• Water quality

• Habitat restoration

• Coastal resiliency

• Fisheries

• Aquaculture

• Mapping/GIS

• Education

• Aquatic invasive

species

NOAA Great Lakes

Coastal Storms Program

Fostering Community Resilience to Coastal Hazards

1) Reduce the negative impacts of stormwater & promote BMPs

2) Prevent the loss of life due to dangerous currents and waves

3) Enhance shoreline mapping, visualization and management

4) Promote hazard mitigation and community resilience

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate

Change Impacts (WICCI)

Downscaled modeling:Global projections on a scale relevant Wisconsin

Statistical range of probable climate change

National Climate Assessment

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest#intro-section

Source: NCA 2014

Temperatures are Rising in the Midwest

Wisconsin’s Climate is Changing…

Observed Change

in Annual

Temperature (°F)

1950 - 2006

Wisconsin’s Climate Will Continue Changing…

Projected Change

in Annual

Temperature (°F)

1980 - 2055

Significant warming

trend is projected

Change in annual average

precipitation (inches)

Wisconsin’s Precipitation 1950-2006

Increase in 2” rainfalls (days/decade)

(1 AM CDT 19 June 2012 - 1 PM CDT 20 June 2012)

Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Hazards

NOAA National Weather Service

June 17th, 2012

NOAA National Weather Service

June 24th, 2012

NOAA National Weather Service

Question…

What do these changes mean for our

communities when for decades we

have been planning and making

decisions, and building infrastructure

based on a relatively stable climate?

Mitigation AdaptationPolicies and measures to reduce climate change at its cause (i.e. reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, etc.)

Taking steps to become more resilient (less vulnerable) to the changes if and when they occur

Source: John Pastor

Adapt Locally: Minimize & Manage Impacts

Emergency Response

Public Health

Infrastructure

Ecosystems

Education

Planning for a Changing Climate

What is an Adaptation Plan?

Identifies and

assesses impacts

that are likely to

affect the planning

area.

Develops goals and

actions to minimize

the impacts.

Establishes a process

to implement those

actions.

Oconto County HMPNATURAL HAZARDS & CLIMATE CHANGE

Integrating Climate Change Into Hazard Mitigation Planning

1) Evaluate how climate change impacts hazards

2) A Self‐Assessment to Address Climate Change Readiness in Great Lakes Region

3) Recommendations for mitigation and adaptation

How will projected climate changes impact Oconto County Hazards?

1) Winter Storms

2) Tornado and Strong Wind

3) Extreme Cold

4) Wildland Fires

5) Flooding

6) Drought

7) Pest Outbreaks

8) Extreme Heat

9) Dense Fog

10) Hail

11) Thunder/Lightning

12) Coastal Hazards

More Hot Days

Projected Change

in Frequency of

≥90°F Days

1980 - 2055

Extreme

Heat

Warmer Winters

Projected Change

in Winter Average

Temperatures (°F)

1980 - 2055

Pest

Outbreaks

Changing Precipitation Patterns

Projected Change in

Annual Average

Precipitation (inches)

1980 - 2055

Modest Increases in

Total Precipitation

More Large Storm Events

Projected Change in

Frequency of

≥ 2” Precip Events

1980 - 2055

Flooding

Severe Storms

2-3 days

more per decade

Drier Summers

Change in Annual

Summer

Precipitation

1950 - 2006

Drought

Wildfire

Coastal Hazards…TBD

Changing

Lake Levels

Bluff Erosion

Increasing

Wind Strengths

Lake Michigan-Huron

1974 - 2016

Source: GLREL

Great Lakes Hydro-

Climate Dashboard

Categories: Critical infrastructure flooding

readiness

Critical facilities flooding readiness

Build environment and

Infrastructure

Operations and Maintenance

Water Resources

Ecosystems and habitats

Tourism and Recreation

Business Plans and Equipment

Community Plans

A Self‐Assessment to Address Climate

Change Readiness in Great Lakes Region

Snapshot of Self-Assessment

Critical Infrastructure Flooding ReadinessInfrastructure Scenario Scenario Scenario

Located in the

Floodplain1?

Flooding expected

due to 100-year, 24-

hour storm2?

Flooding expected due

to storm event 50%

greater than column 23

Sewage Treatment System X X X

Power grid X X X

Drinking Water System X*Turbidity Concerns

X*Turbidity Concerns

Roadways/ evacuation

routes

X X

Railways/evacuation

routes

X X

Petroleum/chemical

storage facilities

X

Total Check Marks

(infrastructure)

3 5 5

Snapshot of Self-Assessment

Water Resources

Water Resources Yes No

Does the area have invasive species management issues in protected

habitat areas?

X

Do you have water resources that could be threatened or impacted from

the result of a wildfire (i.e. increased erosion and sedimentation)?

X

Are there beneficial uses1 for designated waterbodies in the area that

cannot always be met today due to water quality issues?

X

Does your community wastewater treatment plant discharge untreated

sewage during rain events?

X

Is shoreline erosion above and beyond natural occurrences currently

being observed in your area?

X

Total Number of Yes and No answers 3 4

Snapshot of Self-Assessment

Categories 3-8

Total Yes

answers

(shaded box of

given table above)

Translate Total Answers

from Column 1 of this

table to a Readiness Index

Readiness

IndexComments

Category 3: Built Environment &

Infrastructure7

0 to 2 (HIGH)

3 to 5 (MEDIUM)

6 to 8 (LOW)

LOW

Category 4: Operations and

Maintenance2

0 to 1 (HIGH)

2 to 4 (MEDIUM)

5 to 6 (LOW)

MEDIUM

Category 5: Water Resources 30 to 2 (HIGH)

3 to 5 (MEDIUM)

6 to 7 (LOW)

MEDIUM

Category 6: Ecosystems & Habitats 80 to 2 (HIGH)

3 to 6 (MEDIUM)

7 to 9 (LOW)

LOW

Category 7: Tourism and Recreation 40 to 1 (HIGH)

2 (MEDIUM)

3 to 4 (LOW)

LOW

Category 8: Business Plans &

Equipment1

4 (HIGH)

2 to 3 (MEDIUM)

0 to 1 (LOW)

LOW

Category 9: Community Plans 26 to 8 (HIGH)

3 to 5 (MEDIUM)

1 to 2 (LOW)

LOW

Operations & Maintenance

(high vulnerability)

Oconto Co already experiencing a need for additional infrastructure,

operations and maintenance associated with extreme weather events

Solutions/Adaptations

• Review evacuation routes,

plowing guidelines, emergency

routes

• Revise weight limits for winter

road use

• EMB tree inventory and

replacement plan

• Increase energy efficiency in

government owned buildings and

facilities

Impacts

• Increased risk of accidents, injury,

and death

• Increased frequency in travel

disruption and road closures

• Delayed construction activities

• Weakened or washed out stream

banks and culverts

• Loss of county forest

• Limited or lost tourism opportunities

• Increase in local air pollution

• Increased wildfire risk

Built Environment & Infrastructure

(moderate vulnerability)

Municipal infrastructure is designed using standards based on

rainfall data from the latter half of the 20th century

Solutions/Adaptations

• Use a risk approach to evaluate

and modify existing infrastructure

• Implement development

setbacks based

• Relocate structures that are

threatened by flooding or erosion

• Education for developers,

bankers, and insurance agents

• Participate in NFIP Community

Rating System (CRS)

Impacts

• Increased risk of property damage

or death, particularly for vulnerable

populations

• Longer recovery period resulting in

economic losses

• Conveyance systems filled beyond

capacity

• Roadways and bridges wash-out or

become impassable

• Stormwater systems overwhelmed

by heavy rains and flooding

Water Resources

(low vulnerability)

Water Resources are critical to the economic health

and quality of life for Oconto County residents.

Solutions/Adaptations

• Integrated water management

planning

• Enhance infiltration near

headwaters, watershed divides,

and low groundwater

• Protect and restore floodplains,

and wetlands

• Implement green infrastructure

• Incorporate BMPs into farm

nutrient management plans

Impacts

• Taxed local water supplies

• Low lake levels

• Increased in septic system

failures

• Increased agricultural runoff

• Contaminated rural residential

wellheads

• Increased impoundments and

stormwater detention pond

failures

Tourism & Recreation

(high vulnerability)

Climate contributes to the suitability and seasonality

of locations for many tourist activities

Solutions/Adaptations

• Conduct land and water

vulnerability and risk assessment

• Adopt adaptive plant selections for

forestry, stream buffers and urban

trees

• Restore riparian and floodplain

forests to help shade and cool

streams

• Enhance and restore shoreline

habitat lake level variations

Impacts

• Loss of suitable trout habitat

• Increased variability in weather

conditions

• Elevated levels of bacteria that

reduces beach health

• Decreased nearshore health

affecting Green Bay fisheries

• Increased evapotranspiration

affecting lake levels and wetlands

• Reduced forest health and

increased risk for wildfire

Adaptation & Vulnerability

Assessment Resources

CREAT (Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool)

● http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/creat.cfm● http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/upload/epa817f12011.pdf

Nature Serve Vista ● http://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/natureserve-vista

C-CAP Land Cover Atlas ● http://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/lca

National LID Atlas ● http://lidmap.uconn.edu/

NIACS (Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science Climate Change Response Framework) ● http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/climate/framework/● http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/climate/northwoods/

United States Forest Service (Co-operative programs for non-national forests.)● Urban and Community Forestry Program (http://www.fs.fed.us/ucf/) ● Forest Stewardship Program (http://www.fs.fed.us/spf/coop/programs/loa/fsp.shtml) ● Forests on the Edge (http://www.fs.fed.us/openspace/fote/index.html)● Forest Legacy Program (http://www.fs.fed.us/spf/coop/programs/loa/flp.shtml)

Lessons Learned

• Climate adaptation planning is a good fit for

HMPs

• Assessment tool helped start the conversation

• Work with the committee to come up with

solutions and adaptations relevant to the impacts

identified

Great Lakes Region by 2100

Thank you!

Julia NoordykUniversity of Wisconsin Sea Grant920-465-2795noordykj@uwgb.edu