integrating risk management and performance management- by bassam samman - icompetences ppm2013
TRANSCRIPT
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AboutthePresenter
BassamSamman,PMP,PSP,EVP,GPMholdsaBachelor’sDegreeinCivilEngineeringfrom
KuwaitUniversityandaMastersDegreeinEngineeringandAdministraonfromGeorge
WashingtonUniversity.Heiscurrently
pursuingaPhDattheUniversityofSalford,
UK.HeisacerfiedProjectManagement
Professional(PMP),acerfiedPlanningand
SchedulingProfessional(PSP),EarnedValue
Professional(EVP)andGreenProject
Management(GPM).HeisthoroughlyexperiencedincompleteProjectManagement
includingprojectmanagementcontrol
systems,computerizedPCSSoOware,riskanalysis,sitemanagement,claimsanalysisand
prevenonandalternavedisputeresoluon.
Bassamhas30yearsexperienceinProject
ManagementConsultancy.
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IntegrangRiskManagementandEarnedValuePerformance
Management
§ HowTheEarnedValue’sEsmateToCompletecalculaonsprovideanexcellentprojectperformancetool
§ HowtheMonteCarlosimulaoncanprovidethepredictedesmatetocompleteatdifferent
confidencelevels.
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HowTheEarnedValue’sEsmateToCompletecalculaonsprovideanexcellentprojectperformancetool
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ManagingPerformanceWithEarnedValue
Performancemanagement involvesapplying controls that ensure the project stayswithin theagreeduponbudget.
Theearnedvaluetechniqueisusedtoimplementperformancemeasurement.
The earned value technique compares the cumulave value of the budgeted cost of workperformed (EV) at the original allocated budget amount to both the budgeted cost of workscheduled(PV)andtotheactualcostofworkperformed(AC).
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BudgetatCompleon(BAC)
Thesumtotaloftheme-phasedbudget.AlsoknownasProjectPlannedBudget
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PlannedValue(PV)
Isthebudgetcostfortheworkscheduledtobecompletedforanacvityuptoagivenpointinme.
Used to be known as Budget Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) or Budget Quanty of Work
Scheduled(BQWS)
PlannedValueCostisthecostoftheworkthatshouldhavebeenaccomplishedasofthe
datadate,iftheprojecthadproceededaccordingtothebaselineplan.
PlannedValueCost=BudgetatComple?onxSchedule%Complete.
Answerstheques?on:Howmuchworkshouldbedone
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PerformanceManagementBaseline(PMB)
© 2009 CMCS FZCO
Project Performance
0
5,000
10,00015,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00060,000
65,000
70,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A E D
Planned
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ManagementReserve(MR)
Timeorcostaddedtotheprojecttodealwithunknownunknownrisks.Thatisrisksthathavenotbeenidenfied.
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TotalAllocatedBudget(TAB)
TotalAllocatedBudget
ManagementReserve
BudgetAtComple?on
DistributedBudget
ControlAccounts
DiscreteWorkPackages
Appor?onedWorkPackages
LevelofEffortWorkPackages
SummaryPP
PlanningPackages
PlanningPackages
PlanningPackages
UndistributedBudget
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ControlAccount
Amanagementcontrolpointwheretheintegraonofscope,budget,actualcost,andscheduletakesplace,andwherethemeasurementofperformancewilloccur.
Controlaccountsareplacedatselectedmanagementpointsoftheworkbreakdownstructure.Eachcontrolaccountmayincludeoneormoreworkpackages,buteachworkpackagemaybeassociatedwithonlyonecontrolaccount.
Each control account is associated with a specific single organizaonal component in theorganizaonalbreakdownstructure(BS).
AControlAccountisamajormanagementcontrolpointfor:
§ CostSummarizaon§ VarianceAnalysisandReporng§ ResponsibilityAssignment§ ScopeDescripon§ CorrecveAconPlanning
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ControlAccountMatrix
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ControlAccountDetails–BeforeUpdate
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ProjectAuthorizedBudget/TotalAllocatedBudget
© 2009 CMCS FZCO
Project Performance
0
5,000
10,00015,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00060,000
65,000
70,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 N ov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A E D
Planned
Management Reserve
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EarnedValue(EV)
Isthebudgetedamountoftheworkactuallycompletedonthescheduleacvityduringagivenmeperiod.
UsedtobeknownasBudgetCostofWorkPerformed(BCWP)orBudgetQuantyofWork
Performed(BQWP)
EarnedValueCostisthemonetaryvalueoftheworkperformedbyaresourceasofthe
datadate.
EarnedValueCost=BudgetatComple?onxPerformance%Complete
Answerstheques?on:Howmuchworkisdone
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
EarnedValue
Project Performance
0
5,000
10,00015,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00060,000
65,000
70,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A E D
Planned Ear ned
Management Reserve
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ActualCost(AC)
Is the total cost incurred in accomplishingwork on the schedule acvityduring a givenmeperiod.
Used to be known as Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) or Actual Quanty of Work
Performed(AQWP)
ActualCostistheactualtotalcostincurredfortheworkaccomplishedasofthedatadate.
ActualCost=ActualLaborCost+ActualNonlaborCost+ActualExpenseCost+Actual
MaterialCost
Answerstheques?on:Howmuchdidthecompletedworkcost
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
ActualCost(AC)
Project Performance
0
5,000
10,00015,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00060,000
65,000
70,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A E
D
Planned Earned Actual
Management Reserve
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ControlAccountDetails–AOerUpdate
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PerformanceHistogram
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PerformanceManagementBaseline(PMB)
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PerformanceBarchart
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ScheduleVariance(SV)
Thedifferencebetweenthebudgetedcostofworkperformedand thebudgetedcostofworkscheduledatanypointinme.
SV=EV-PV
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
ScheduleVariance
Project Performance
0
5,000
10,00015,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00060,000
65,000
70,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A E
D
Planned Earned Actual
Management Reserve
SV = EV-PV
SV = 22,500 – 31, 500 = -9,000
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
ScheduleVariance(SV)
Variances
-10,000
-9,000
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A E D
SV
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SchedulePerformanceIndex(SPI)
Rao of work accomplished versus work planned, for a specified me period. The SPI is anefficiencyrangforworkaccomplishment,comparingworkaccomplishedtowhatshouldhave
beenaccomplished
SPI=EV/PV
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SchedulePerformanceIndex(SPI)
© 2009 CMCS FZCO
Project Performance
0
5,000
10,00015,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00060,000
65,000
70,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A E
D
Planned Earned Actual
Management Reserve
SPI = EV/PV
SPI = 22,500 / 31, 500 = 0.71
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SchedulePerformanceIndex(SPI)
© 2009 CMCS FZCO
Indices
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Jan- 07 Feb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
I n d
e x
SPI
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CostVariance(CV)
Thedifferencebetweentheearnedvalueandtheactualcost.
CV=EV-AC
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
CostVariance(CV)
Variances
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A E D
SV CV
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
CostPerformanceIndex(CPI)
Raoofworkaccomplishedversusworkcostincurredforaspecifiedmeperiod.TheCPIisan
efficiencyrangforworkaccomplishedforresourcesexpended.
CPI=EV/AC
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
CostPerformanceIndex(CPI)
Indices
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Jan- 07 Feb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun-07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
I n
d e x
SPI CPI
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PerformanceIndex
© 2009 CMCS FZCO
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
EVMeasuresandIndices
SV > 0 & SPI > 1.0 SV = 0 & SPI = 1.0 SV < 0 & SPI < 1.0
CV > 0 &
CPI > 1.0
Ahead of Schedule
Under Budget
On Schedule Under
Budget
Behind Schedule
Under Budget
CV = 0 &
CPI = 1.0
Ahead of Schedule
On Budget
On Schedule On
Budget
Behind Schedule On
Budget
CV < 0 &
CPI < 1.0
Ahead of Schedule
Over Budget
On Schedule Over
Budget
Behind Schedule
Over Budget
SchedulePerformance
Measures
Cost
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EsmateToComplete(ETC)
Theesmatetocompletetheremainingworkforanacvity,workpackageorcontrolaccount.
ETC=BAC-EV
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
EsmateToComplete(ETC)
Project Performance
0
5,000
10,00015,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00060,000
65,000
70,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A
E D
Planned Earned Actual
Management Reserve
ETC = BAC – EVETC = 65,000 – 22,500
ETC = 42,500
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FuturePerformance
Future performance may be
different to current
performance
Proactive measures are
taken to recover variances
Nature of future work isdifferent to completed
work
Completed work includes
learning that will not applyto future work
Future activities are easier or
more difficult than completed
activities
Completed work includes
non-recurring elements
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
HowToReflectFuturePerformanceUsingETCCalculaon
ETCwillnotbeinfluencedbypastprojectperformance-pmisc
§ ETC=(BAC-EV)
ETCwillbeinfluencedbyfactorsofpastcostperformance–MostLikely
§ ETC=(BAC-EV)/CPI
ETCwillbeinfluencedbypastcostandscheduleperformance-Pessimisc
§ ETC=(BAC-EV)/(CPIXSPI)
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
EsmateAtCompleon(EAC)
Thecostoftheamountofworktocompletescheduleacvies.Itisaforecastofthemostlikely
totalvaluebasedonprojectperformanceandriskquanficaon.
EAC=AC+ETC
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
EsmateAtCompleon(EAC)
Project Performance
0
5,000
10,00015,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00060,000
65,000
70,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A
E D
Planned Earned Actual
Management Reserve
EAC = AC + ETCEAC =18,000 – 42,500
EAC = 60,500
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
VarianceAtCompleon(VAC)
Thevariancebetweenbudgetandesmateatcompleon.
VAC=BAC–EAC
AlsoknownasVariance(VAR)
( )
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© 2009 CMCS FZCO
VarianceAtCompleon(VAC)
Project Performance
0
5,000
10,00015,000
20,000
25,000
30,00035,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,00060,000
65,000
70,000
Jan- 07 F eb- 07 Mar -07 Apr -07 May -07 Jun- 07 Jul- 07 Aug- 07 Sep- 07 Oct- 07 Nov -07 Dec- 07
Time
A
E D
Planned Earned Actual
Management Reserve
VAC = BAC - EACVAC =65,000 – 60,500
VAC = 4,500
E d V l P f Hi
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EarnedValuePerformanceHistogram
©2009CMCSFZCO
Planned
Actual
I n $ 1 , 0
0 0 ’ s
BudgetatCompleon(BAC)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Months
T a r g e t C o m p l e o n
D a t e
C u r r e n t C o m p l e o n
D a t e
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
11
1300
Planned=$500K:DataDate
Actual=$400K
200
400
600
800
1000
12001300
ProbableScheduleDelay=4weeks
Probable
Cost
verrun
=$300K
EsmateatCompleon(EAC)
CostVariance-$100K
Schedule
Variance(Time)
-4wks
ScheduleVariance($)
-$200K
Earned
Earned=$300K
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HowtheMonteCarlosimulaoncanprovidethepredicted
esmatetocompleteatdifferentconfidencelevels
© 2009 CMCS FZCO
E port Control Acco nt Details To XLS Template
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ExportControlAccountDetailsToXLSTemplate
Project Risk Categories
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ProjectRiskCategories
© 2009 CMCS FZCO
Risk
Technical
Higherperformance
goalsTechnologyshis
PlaormchangesNewindustrystandards
Complextechnology
Unproventechnology
ProjectManagement
Schedule Budget
Quality Scope
Resources Projectteam
Communica?on
Organiza?onal
Weakinfrastructure
Unclearorganiza?onalobjec?ves
Intra-organiza?onal
resourceconflicts
Shiingfundingavailability
External
Legalchallenges
Shiingcustomergoals
Naturaldisasters
Legalshis
Impact f Risk n Project bjecves
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ImpactfRisknProjectbjecves
RISK ITEM
CONTRACTOR
PROVIDES
DEFECTIVE
SERVICE
IMPACT
ON
SAFETY
IMPACT
ON
TEAM
WORKING
IMPACT
ON
QUALITY
IMPACT
ON
COST
IMPACT
ONTIME
© 2009 CMCS FZCO
Risk Impact Scales n Four Major Project bjecves
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RiskImpactScalesnFourMajorProjectbjecves
How Does Monte Carlo Simulaon Works?
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© 2007 CMCS FZCO 48
HowDoesMonteCarloSimulaonWorks?
Import Control Account With ETC Value To Risk Simulaon SoOware
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ImportControlAccountWithETCValueToRiskSimulaonSoOware
The imported values in Acumen Risk with Uncertainty
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TheimportedvaluesinAcumenRiskwithUncertainty
MonteCarloSimulaon
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Monte Carlo Simulaon
80%confidencechartforEAC
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Thetornadoandotherriskcharts
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Thetornadoandotherriskchartsforeachcontrolaccount
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Thetornadoandotherriskcharts
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