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Annual Meeting
December 8‐10, 2019
Washington, DC
The International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium gratefully acknowledges the continuing support of Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada, the USDA Economic Research Service, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, and the USDA Office of the Chief Economist. Additional financial support was generously provided by the Andersons Program in International Trade at Ohio State University and by Virginia Tech.
Program Agenda Theme Day Topic:
Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibruim Modeling: Relevance
and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis
International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium Annual Meeting, December 8-10, 2019
The IATRC extends heartfelt appreciation to Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University), Jason Grant (Virginia Tech), and Kari Heerman (U.S. Trade Representative) for their time and effort as Theme Day Organizers. Thank you also to Jonathan Coleman (U.S. International Trade Commission) who served
as Executive Committee Liaison and Non-Theme Day Organizer, and to Missy Sullivan, IATRC Administrative Director from the University of Minnesota, for arranging meeting details.
For information about future IATRC meetings or IATRC publications, visit the web site: www.iatrc.org
Internet access in the meeting spaces Select: Hilton Honors
Scroll to “I have a promotional code” Conference / Promotional Code: UMN2019
IATRC ANNUAL MEETING AGENDA SUNDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2019
7:30-8:30 BREAKFAST (SOLARIUM)
8:00-8:45 PICK UP NAMETAGS AND PROGRAMS (L’ENFANT BALLROOM FOYER)
8:45-9:00 WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION (L’ENFANT BALLROOM C & D) IAN SHELDON (OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY) AND JASON GRANT (VIRGINIA TECH) 9:00-10:00 Retrospective Discussion of AGE Models Timothy Kehoe (University of Minnesota) Moderator: Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University) Discussant: Munisamy Gopinath (University of Georgia) 10:00-11:00 Recent Application of AGE Models to Agricultural and Other Trade Settings Edward Balistreri (Iowa State University) Moderator: Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University) Discussant: Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (Purdue University)
11:00-11:15 COFFEE BREAK (L’ENFANT BALLROOM FOYER) 11:15-12:15 Measuring Trade Elasticities Michael Waugh (New York University) Moderator: Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University) Discussant: Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist)
12:15-1:30 LUNCH (SOLARIUM)
1:30-2:00 POST-LUNCH BREAK 2:00-3:00 Taking AGE Models to the Data Yoto Yotov (Drexel University) Moderator: Jason Grant (Virginia Tech) Discussant: Nelson Villoria (Kansas State University)
3:00-3:15 COFFEE BREAK (L’ENFANT BALLROOM FOYER) 3:15-4:15 Critical Assessment of Recent AGE Models Katheryn Russ (University of California Davis) Moderator: Jason Grant (Virginia Tech) Discussant: Jeff Reimer (Oregon State University) 4:15-5:15 Panel Discussion: Reflections on the Current State of GE Modeling Amanda Countryman (Colorado State University), Tom Hertel (Purdue University), Will Martin (IFPRI), and William Powers (U.S. International Trade Commission) Panel Chair: Kari Heerman (Office of U.S. Trade Representative)
5:30-7:00 RECEPTION (L’ENFANT BALLROOM FOYER)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2019
7:00-8:00 BREAKFAST (SOLARIUM)
8:00-10:00 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 01, 02, AND 03 Session 01: Climate Change and Trade (L’ENFANT BALLROOM C & D) Moderator: Rick Barichello (University of British Columbia)
1) Climate Shocks and Trade Openness: How Do Trade Policies Affect the Impact of Climate Shocks on Maize Prices? Kathy Baylis and Tess Lallemant (University of Illinois)
2) The Role of International Trade in Climate Change Angel Aguiar (Purdue University)
3) On the Impact of Climate Change on Global Agri-Food Trade Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia), Martina Bozzola (Queens University, Belfast), and Emilia Lamonaca (University of Foggia)
4) Assessing Options for Addressing the Triple Challenge Facing the Agricultural Sector Marcel Adenäuer and Jonathan Brooks (OECD)
Session 02: Analysis of U.S.-China Trade Tension (POTOMAC ROOM) Moderator: Sharon Sydow (USDA Office of Chief Economist)
1) The Impact of China’s Tariffs on U.S. Soybeans Taking into Account North-South Production Patterns Byung Min Soon, Patrick Westhoff, and Wyatt Thompson (University of Missouri)
2) Global and Regional Impacts of Trade Tensions on Global Value Chains Erwin Corong (Purdue University), Maria Pereira, Maryla Maliszewska (World Bank), and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (Purdue University)
3) The Impact of U.S.-China Trade War on Soybean Prices Harry de Gorter (Cornell University) and Thanos Triantafyllou (University of Essex, UK)
4) U.S. Agricultural Export Growth in ASEAN Member States: Does FDI Stock Matter? Kayode Ajewole (USDA Economic Research Service)
Session 03: Price Relationships in Agricultural Markets (McPHERSON ROOM) Moderator: William Powers (U.S. International Trade Commission)
1) Anomalous Weather, Prices and the ‘Missing Middle’ Han Lin (University of Exeter, UK), Tim Lloyd (University of Bournemouth, UK), and Steve McCorriston (University of Exeter, UK)
2) Analyzing Intraday Liquidity Spillovers in Commodity Futures Markets Thom de Boer (University of Amsterdam), Koos Gardebroek (University of Wageningen), Andres Trujillo-Barrera (University of Idaho), and Joost Pennings (University of Wageningen)
3) Effects of China’s Trade Policies on U.S. Distillers’ Dried Grains Lia Nogueira (University of Nebraska), Vanessa De Oliveira (Washington State University), and Kate Brooks (University of Nebraska)
4) An Examination of the Effects of an Increase in Rail Tariffs on U.S. Grain Exports Joann Peterson and Justin Choe (U.S. International Trade Commission)
10:00-10:30 COFFEE BREAK (L’ENFANT BALLROOM FOYER)
10:30-12:30 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 04, 05, AND 06 Session 04: Effects of Market and Regional Integration on Trade (L’ENFANT BALLROOM C & D) Moderator: Dragan Miljkovic (North Dakota State University)
1) Intra Industry Trade of Selected Agri-Food Commodities between Canada and the United States: Did NAFTA Make a Difference? Rakhal Sarker (University of Guelph)
2) Trading Agricultural Goods Across the African Continent – GLOBIOM Scenario Analysis Charlotte Janssens, Miet Meartens, Nicole Van Lipzig (KU Leuven, Belgium), Petr Havlik, and Aline Mosnier (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria)
3) The Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions Chi Zhang, Ivan Kandilov, and Mark Walker (North Carolina State University)
Session 05: Application of Partial Equilibrium Models to Trade Policy Analysis (POTOMAC ROOM) Moderator: Lia Nogueira (University of Nebraska)
1) Impacts of Trade Liberalization in Canada’s Supply Managed Dairy Industry Scott Biden, Alan P. Ker (University of Guelph), and Stephen Duff (OMAFRA)
2) Trade in CRISPR Wheat: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis Prince Fosu, Thomas Wahl, and Frayne Olson (North Dakota State University)
3) Year-Round E15: Could a Policy to Expand E15 Use Become a Disincentive Unto Itself? Jarrett Whistance, Seth Meyer, Wyatt Thompson (University of Missouri), and Deepayan Debnath (University of Illinois)
4) Modeling the Impact of Trade Shocks on Exports of U.S. Corn, Lentils, and Frozen French Fries Meagan Martin and Steven LeGrand (U.S. International Trade Commission)
5) The Effects of Feed Costs and Increased Energy Needs on Broiler Farm Productivity: A Dynamic Programming Approach Samantha Padilla (USDA Economic Research Service), Sawada Liverpool-Tasie, and Robert Myers (Michigan State University)
Session 06: Current Developments in Trade-Related SPS Issues: Questions Policymakers are Asking and Ways to Answer Them (McPHERSON ROOM) Organizer: Joanna Bonarriva (U.S. International Trade Commission)
1) Current SPS Developments at the WTO and Codex Julia Doherty (U.S. Trade Representative, Office of Agricultural Affairs)
2) Global Economic Impacts of Missing and Low Pesticide Maximum Residue Levels Dylan Carlson (U.S. International Trade Commission)
3) Estimating the Ad Valorem Equivalent of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Trade MeasuresL Evidence from Specific Trade Concerns Jason Grant (Virginia Tech)
12:30-1:15 LUNCH (SOLARIUM)
1:15-1:30 TRIBUTE TO TIM JOSLING (SOLARIUM) 1:30-2:00 POST-LUNCH BREAK
2:00-3:45 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 07, 08, AND 09 Session 07: Effects of Policy Intervention on Trade (POTOMAC ROOM) Moderator: Erwin Corong (Purdue University)
1) Some Short-Run Effects of an Import Duty on the U.S. Economy Paul W. Gallagher (Iowa State University)
2) Assessing the Poverty and Distributional Impact of Alternative Rice Policies in the Philippines Caesar Cororaton (Virginia Tech) and Krista Danielle Yu (De La Salle University)
3) The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates Jisang Yu, Nelson Villoria, and Nathan Hendricks (Kansas State University)
4) Innovation and Export Behaviour: A Within-Farms Analysis on French Dairy Farms Kevin Randy, Chemo Dzukou, Sabine Duvaleix-Treguer, and Karine Latouche (INRA, France)
Session 08: Economic Impacts of the 2018/19 Trade War – A One Year Ex-Post Assessment (POTOMAC ROOM) Organizers: Jason Grant (Virginia Tech) and Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist) Moderator: Rob Johansson (USDA Office of Chief Economist) Discussant: Lee Ann Jackson (WTO)
1) Trade Destruction and Deflection: An Assessment of the 2018-19 Trade War on U.S. and Global Agricultural Commodity Exports Jason Grant, Charlotte Emlinger (Virginia Tech), Robert Johansson, and Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist)
2) The Costs to Agriculture from Recent Trade Disputes Gopinath Munisamy and Jeffrey Dorfman (University of Georgia)
3) Trade Wars and Trade Assistance: An Evaluation of MFP and Implications for WTO Commitments Joseph Glauber (IFPRI)
Session 09: Domestic and Trade Policy in Agriculture (McPHERSON ROOM) Moderator: Bernard Cantin (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)
1) Product-Specific, Non-Product-Specific or In-Between: Practices and Consequences under the Agreement on Agriculture Lars Brink (Independent Advisor)
2) The Role of Information in Support for Agricultural Trade Policies: A Customized Survey Experiment Ryan Cardwell and Chad Lawley (University of Manitoba)
3) Tracking the Evolution of Export Restrictions on Grains and Soybeans: the AMIS Policy Database Annelies Deuss (OECD, Paris)
4) Ways to Overcome the Non-Adoption of Voluntary Agricultural GHG Mitigation Measures in Ireland Lucie Adenäuer, Anne Hayden, and James Breen (University College Dublin)
3:45-4:15 COFFEE BREAK (L’ENFANT BALLROOM FOYER)
4:15-5:15 IATRC MEMBERS’ BUSINESS MEETING (L’ENFANT BALLROOM C & D)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2019
7:00-8:00 BREAKFAST (SOLARIUM)
8:00-10:00 SESSION 10 (L’ENFANT BALLROOM C & D) Session 10: IATRC Commissioned Papers – Results and Findings Organizer and Moderator: Andrew Muhammad (University of Tennessee)
1) The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on the Duration and Hazard Rate of Exporting: Lessons from Agricultural Trade Jason Grant and Everett Peterson (Virginia Tech)
2) On the Role of SPS in RTAs: Trade Effects, Inspection Regimes and Standards Equivalency Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia)
3) Taking Stock and Looking Forward on Domestic Support in Agriculture Lars Brink (Independent Advisor) and David Orden (Virginia Tech)
4) Global Database on Nominal Rate of Protection in Agriculture: 1955-2017 David LaBorde and Abdullah Mamun (IFPRI)
10:00-10:30 COFFEE BREAK (L’ENFANT BALLROOM FOYER)
10:30-12:30 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 11, 12, AND 13 Session 11: International Trade in Disarray: A Watershed Moment? (L’ENFANT BALLROOM C & D) Organizer: William H. Meyers (University of Missouri) Moderator: Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist) Discussant: Seth Meyer (University of Missouri)
1) East Asia: Frustrations with China and Multiculturalism Fred Gale (USDA Economic Research Service)
2) From NAFTA to USMCA – A Better Deal for the U.S.? Luis Ribera (Texas A&M University)
3) Brexit and a Potential UK Trade Agreement – Implications for U.S. Agricutlure Andrew Muhammad (University of Tennessee)
4) The WTO: Is it Really at Risk? Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University)
Session 12: GE Model Application to Agricultural Trade and Policy Analysis (POTOMAC ROOM) Moderator: Ivan Duric (IAMO, Germany)
1) GE Analysis of the Effects of U.S. Market Facilitation Payments on the U.S. Farm Sector Lesley Ahmed, Caroline Peters, and Marinos Tsigas (U.S. International Trade Commission)
2) Canada-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement: Implications for Canadian Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector Using Metro Model Hared Digale (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)
3) Disaggregating Vegetables, Fruits and Nuts Sector to the Tariff Line in the GTAP-HS Framework Maksym Chepeliev, Alla Golub, Thomas Hertel, Wajiha Saeed (Purdue University), and Jayson Beckman (USDA Economic Research Service)
Session 13: Machine Learning in Agricultural Trade and Policy Settings (McPHERSON ROOM) Organizers: Munisamy Gopinath (University of Georgia), Kathy Baylis (University of Illinois), and Thomas Heckelei (University of Bonn) Moderator: Cynthia Nickerson (USDA Economic Research Service) Discussant: Mateusz Filipski (University of Georgia)
1) Can Machine Learning Help Predict Agricultural Trade Patterns? Munisamy Gopinath (University of Georgia), Feras Batarseh (Georgetown University), and Jayson Beckman (USDA Economic Research Service)
2) Predicting Food Security with Machine Learning Yujun Zhou and Kathy Baylis (University of Illinois)
3) Using Neural Networks in Agricultural Economics – An Application to Modeling Costs of the Federal Crop Insurance Program
Joe Cooper (USDA Office of Chief Economist) and Andrew Crane-Droesch (USDA Economic Research Service)
12:30-1:30 LUNCH (SOLARIUM)
1:30-3:30 CONCURRENT SESSIONS 14, 15, AND 16 Session 14: Digital Platforms to Forecast and Facilitate International Markets and Trade (L’ENFANT BALLROOM C & D) Organizer and Moderator: William H. Meyers (University of Missouri) Discussant: Joe Glauber (IFPRI)
1) Identifying Areas to Apply Technology to Reduce Uncertainty and Improve Market Function for Both Governments and the Private Sector Seth Meyer (University of Missouri) and Joe Glauber (IFPRI)
2) The Expanding Role of Remote Sensing Technology in Agricultural Production and Trade Estefania Puricelli and Brian Barker (NASA Harvest, University of Maryland)
3) Digital Platforms Along the Grain Value Chain of the Black Sea Region Ivan Duric and Taras Gagalyuk (IAMO, Germany)
Session 15: Effects of Non-Tariff Measures on Trade (L’ENFANT BALLROOM C & D) Moderator: Karine Latouche (INRA, France)
1) Importance of Technical Barriers to Agri-Food Trade: Evidence from TBT Specific Trade Concerns Raised at the WTO David Orden, Khadija Rouchd, and Caesar Cororaton (Virginia Tech)
2) VIP Pass to Markets: What Customs Certification Tell Us About NTB’s Restrictiveness Charlotte Emlinger (Virgina Tech) and Jean Foure (CEPII, France)
3) Almond and Aflatoxin: Investigating the Extent of Impact on California Exports Mina Hejazi (California State University - Chico) and Jeta Rudi Polloshkab (California Polytechnic State University)
4) Impact of SPS Regulations on International Trade in Fruits Daae Choic and Hanho Kim (Seoul National University)
Session 16: Analysis of Agricultural Consumption and Trade (McPHERSON ROOM) Moderator: Silvia de Miranda (University of São Paulo)
1) Consumption Pattern and Trade Ties Anupa Sharma (North Dakota State University)
2) Assessing U.S. Beer Consumption and Health Attitudes Thomas Wahl (North Dakota State University) and James Seale, Jr. (University of Florida)
3) China’s Import Demand for Agricultural Products Robert Feenstra (University of California Davis) and Chang Hong (USDA Economic Research Service)
4) Effects on Chinese Whey Demand from African Swine Fever Losses, a Partial Equilibrium Lesley Ahmed, Justin Choe, Brad Gehrke, and Samantha Schreiber (U.S. International Trade Commission)
5) U.S. Competition for Southeast Asia Dairy Imports Christopher Davis and Jerry Cessna (USDA Economic Research Service)
3:30 ADJOURN
Name Institution Country
1 Abbyad, Nabil U.S. International Trade Commission United States
2 Adenäuer, Marcel OECD France
3 Aguiar, Angel Purdue University United States
4 Ahsan, Saquib USDA Foreign Agricultural Service United States
5 Ajewole, Kayode USDA Economic Research Service United States
6 Arita, Shawn USDA Office of Chief Economist United States
7 Awokuse, Titus Michigan State University United States
8 Balistreri, Edward Iowa State University United States
9 Barichello, Richard University of British Columbia Canada
10 Barker, Brian University of Maryland United States
11 Baylis, Kathy University of Illinois United States
12 Beckman, Alexander USDA Foreign Agricultural Service United States
13 Beckman, Jayson USDA Economic Research Service United States
14 Bethmann, Erika U.S. International Trade Commission United States
15 Biden, Scott University of Guelph Canada
16 Bonarriva, Joanna U.S. International Trade Commission United States
17 Breen, James University College Dublin Ireland
18 Brink, Lars Independent Canada
19 Cantin, Bernard Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada Canada
20 Cardwell, Ryan University of Manitoba Canada
21 Carlson, Dylan U.S. International Trade Commission United States
22 Cessna, Jerry USDA Economic Research Service United States
23 Chepeliev, Maksym Purdue University United States
24 Choe, Justin U.S. International Trade Commission United States
25 Coleman, Jonathan U.S. International Trade Commission United States
26 Cooper, Joseph USDA Office of Chief Economist United States
27 Corong, Erwin Purdue University United States
28 Cororaton, Caesar Virginia Tech United States
29 Countryman, Amanda Colorado State University United States
30 Davis, Christopher USDA Economic Research Service United States
31 Deuss, Annelies OECD France
32 Digale, Hared Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada Canada
33 Duford, Corey Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada Canada
34 Duric, Ivan IAMO Germany
35 Effland, Anne USDA Office of Chief Economist United States
36 Emlinger, Charlotte Virginia Tech United States
37 Filipski, Mateusz University of Georgia United States
38 Fry, John U.S. International Trade Commission United States
39 Gagalyuk, Taras IAMO Germany
40 Gale, Fred USDA Economic Research Service United States
41 Gallagher, Paul Iowa State University United States
42 Gardebroek, Cornelis Wageningen University The Netherlands
43 Gehrke, Brad U.S. International Trade Commission United States
44 Glauber, Joseph International Food Policy Research Institute United States
45 Gopinath, Munisamy University of Georgia United States
46 Grant, Jason Virginia Tech United States
IATRC ANNUAL MEETING PARTICIPANT LIST ‐ DECEMBER 2019
47 Hansen, James USDA Economic Research Service United States
48 Heckelei, Thomas University of Bonn Germany
49 Heerman, Kari U.S. Trade Representative United States
50 Hejazi, Mina California State University, Chico United States
51 Hertel, Thomas Purdue University United States
52 Hong, Chang U.S. Customs and Border Protection United States
53 Ivanic, Maros USDA Economic Research Service United States
54 Jackson, Lee Ann World Trade Organization United States
55 Janssens, Charlotte University of Leuven Belgium
56 Johansson, Robert USDA Office of Chief Economist United States
57 Jones, Keithly USDA Foreign Agricultural Service United States
58 Kandilov, Ivan North Carolina State University United States
59 Kehoe, Timothy University of Minnesota United States
60 Kennedy, Lynn Louisiana State University United States
61 Ker, Alan University of Guelph Canada
62 Kim, Dan U.S. International Trade Commission United States
63 Kim, Hanho Seoul National University South Korea
64 Lallemant, Tess University of Illinois United States
65 Latouche, Karine INRA France
66 LeGrand, Steven U.S. International Trade Commission United States
67 Martin, Meagan U.S. International Trade Commission United States
68 Martin, Will International Food Policy Research Institute United States
69 McCorriston, Steve University of Exeter United Kingdom
70 Meyer, Seth University of Missouri United States
71 Meyers, William University of Missouri United States
72 Miljkovic, Dragan North Dakota State University United States
73 de Miranda, Silvia University of Sao Paulo Brazil
74 Montgomery, Christopher U.S. International Trade Commission United States
75 Muhammad, Andrew University of Tennessee United States
76 Neff, Steve USDA Foreign Agricultural Service United States
77 Nickerson, Cindy USDA Economic Research Service United States
78 Ning, Xin Virginia Tech United States
79 Nogueira, Lia University of Nebraska United States
80 Nti, Frank USDA Foreign Agricultural Service United States
81 Orden, David Virginia Tech United States
82 Padilla, Samantha USDA Economic Research Service United States
83 Payan, Carlos U.S. International Trade Commission United States
84 Peters, Caroline U.S. International Trade Commission United States
85 Peterson, Everett Virginia Tech United States
86 Powers, William U.S. International Trade Commission United States
87 Pugliese, Jessica U.S. International Trade Commission United States
88 Ramsey, Ford Virginia Tech United States
89 Rasmussen, Chris U.S. Department of Commerce United States
90 Rastegari Henneberry, Shida Oklahoma State University United States
91 Regmi, Anita U.S. Library of Congress United States
92 Reimer, Jeff Oregon State University United States
93 Ribera, Luis Texas A&M University United States
94 Russ, Katheryn University of California‐Davis and NBER United States
95 Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano University of Foggia Italy
96 Sarker, Rakhal University of Guelph Canada
97 Schmitz, Andrew University of Florida United States
98 Schreiber, Samantha U.S. International Trade Commission United States
99 Seale, James University of Florida United States
100 Sharma, Anupa North Dakota State University United States
101 Sheldon, Ian Ohio State University United States
102 Shister, Amelia U.S. International Trade Commission United States
103 Smith, Vince Montana State University United States
104 Soon, Byung Min Korea Rural Economic Institute South Korea
105 Soroka, Natalie U.S. Department of Commerce United States
106 Sydow, Sharon USDA Office of Chief Economist United States
107 Tafti, Alissa U.S. International Trade Commission United States
108 Thome, Karen USDA Foreign Agricultural Service United States
109 Thompson, Robert University of Illinois United States
110 Thompson, Wyatt University of Missouri United States
111 Valdes, Constanza USDA Economic Research Service United States
112 van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Purdue University United States
113 Villoria, Nelson Kansas State University United States
114 Wahl, Tom North Dakota State University United States
115 Waugh, Michael New York University United States
116 Weaver, Marin U.S. International Trade Commission United States
117 Whistance, Jarrett University of Missouri United States
118 Wickramarachi, Heather U.S. International Trade Commission United States
119 Xu, Yingying U.S. Department of Commerce United States
120 Yotov, Yoto Drexel University United States
121 Yu, Jisang Kansas State University United States
122 Zahniser, Steven USDA Economic Research Service United States
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