international collaborative research for innovative ... · 2015/7/30 1 1 international...
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2015/7/30
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International Collaborative Research for Innovative Modelling and Monitoring
for Low Carbon Society and Eco-Citiesin Indonesia
Professor FUJITA, Tsuyoshi, [email protected]
Director of Social Research Center
Associate Professor FUJII, Minoru
National Institute for Environmental Studies, JAPAN
ISAP(International Forum for Sustainable Asia and the Pacific) 2015
Smart Recycle Center
Renewableenergy
Smart Symbiosis Initiatives for Eco City Innovation Initiatives
methaneincineration
発電・熱量
Energy demand information
substitutive
Operation information
Energy and consumption demand control system
for urban sectors
Demand
Smart industrial complex supported by synergetic information network
among industries
Urban and Regional symbiosis
Waste and material Energy
Local symbiosis
Smart community
Local energy supply and demand
Smart ICT network will promote and complement synergetic network functions among stakeholders
Information support for optimizing local and regional material and energy circularization
Power plant
Steel
Cement
Chemical
Climate information
発電量予測
By‐product information
Energy demand response
Local Data Collection Center
Urban Waste
High value
Smart industrial complex
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1. Innovative monitoring and regional evaluation system research
2. Integrative modelling research for low carbon society
3. Urban and regional eco‐city design model and simulation research
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1. Innovative monitoring and regional evaluation system research
Under Indonesia‐Japan comprehensive collaboration,
Innovative social monitoring system will be developed
smart monitoring system for eco‐city districts and
eco‐ industrial parks
Academic and policy outcome for integrative research challenges will be identified
‐ strategic technology assessment
‐ coordination for sustainable low carbon society strategy planning
‐ innovative monitoring system for the systematic project design
and carbon credit certification
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FUJITSU CONFIDENTIAL 5
DistributionPanel
IPB Darmaga CampusMain Administration Office
IPB Baranangsian CampusCCROM Office
DistributionPanel
IPB Convention Hotel
DistributionPanel
Café Taman Koleksi IPB
DistributionPanel
Residential Unit
DistributionPanel
Bogor City
Bogor City Measurement Point
Possibility of implementing low carbon lifestyle
Actual Data at CCROM Officeat February 6 Friday
Case 1 If new Japanese electric appliances were implemented (Assume),
Case 2If more active lifestyle was implemented (Assume),
LEDAirConditioning
Replacement with ceiling fan
Server
Cut peak power usage by 20%
Cut peak power usage by 13%
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Data utilization for action: Touch Point
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Eco Guide, Applying Japanese Eco Products, Lifestyle Innovation, Evaluate Production Process etc.
Eco Campus /Eco‐Friendly Model City
Expanding the Areas from Point to Area
Bogor City’s future
Commercial Residential Indutrial Commercial Area Residential Area Industrial Area
Low Carbon Energy Supply and Demand in Bogor City’s Area
Visualizing Energy TrendIn Bogor City’s Facility
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1. Innovative monitoring and regional evaluation system research
2. Integrative modelling research for low carbon society
3. Urban and regional eco‐city design model and simulation research
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Assessment of mitigation technologies and financial policies for low carbon development
‐ Particularly focusing in the fields of agriculture,
forestry, and land use sectors in Indonesia
‐ Scenario development of Indonesia using ExSS and
AFOLU
‐ Policy assessment based on AIM/Enduse model and
AIM/CGE model
‐Mitigation actions in Indonesia (RAN‐GRK), and their
economic impacts
2. Integrative modelling research for low carbon society
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Data, Model, Scenarios and Policies
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Data• Demography and Economy • Transport and Land‐use • Agriculture and Forestry• Waste management• Energy demand and supply
Scenario input• Future population growth• Projections and goals of economy• Transport and land‐use plans• Agriculture policies• Current environmental initiative of the
(local) government• Energy technologies suitable to local
conditions• GHG reduction goals
Models• Localization of the models
Quantitative LCS scenarios
• Socio‐economic development• Expected low‐carbon
options/technologies• Co‐benefits
Actions and candidates of Policy Programs toward Low‐carbon development
The models project quantitative and consistent visions in the future society, with input of historical data, intended future goals in the region of the government, and technology information. With the result, the Actions can be established for the regions.
Data Information in Bogor
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750000
800000
850000
900000
950000
1000000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
cassava
Sweet potato
Peanut
Mungbean
Maize
Paddy
Crop production
Population
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Trillion Rp.
Other Services
Finance, Real estate & Business Services
Transport & Communication
Trade, Hotel & Restaurant
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
Construction
Manufacturing Industry
Mining and Quarrying
Agriculture
GDP by Industries (Current price)
• Most of the essential data was already obtained,except for energy demand.
• Some of the data has seemingly unrealistic jump. Further investigation is thus necessary.
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GHG emissions by sectors and contribution by LC measures
• Result of the sample scenario shows GHG emissions in Bogor City will be 2.3 times greater in 2030 BaU compared to 2013 level.
• The examples of low‐carbon measures can reduce the emission by 25% in LCS scenario.
• The model can also shows contribution of the low‐carbon measures in different sectors.
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2013 2030BaU
2030LCS
Waste
Land‐use change
Agriculture
EN Transport
EN Industry
EN Commercial
EN Residential
Monitoring24%
EE device29%
Modal shift21%
Biofuel 14%
Recycling12%
x 2.3
25% reductions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1995年
2000年
2005年
2010年
2015年
2020年
2025年
2030年
2035年
2040年
2045年
2050年
CO
2Em
ission[kt‐CO
2]
Energy Consumption[TJ
] 太陽熱
地域熱(発電所排熱)
地域熱(熱電併給)
地産電力(熱電併給)
地産電力(太陽光)
系統電力
バイオマス
都市ガス
LPガス
石油
石炭
CO2
Solar HeatDistrict HeatingCogenerationRegional PowerSolar PowerPower LinkBiomassTown GasGas Cylinder(LP)PetroleumCoalCO2
Macro Scope Technology Assessment for Local Government
Assessment for Suitable Technology Assessment for the Low Carbon Future (80% Reduction in 2050 from 1990) in Shinchi Town of Fukushima
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Planning System for Fukushima Recovery System through Eco‐innovationFukushima Shinchi
Township National Institute for Env. Studies
Simulation for recovery roadmap
復興まちづくりのシミュレーション
Simulation for recovery roadmap
復興まちづくりのシミュレーション
Planning for Sustainable Future
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Energy Assist
Community Information Assist
Life Assist
Community Assist Tablet Network
LocalNeedsLocalNeeds
RegionalEnvironmentInformation
RegionalEnvironmentInformation
Urban SpatialAnalysisLocal
environment diagnosis
Integrated Modelling
Future scenarioassessment
Tech. and policy inventory
-low carbon tech-circulation tech-industrial symbiosis-policy / regulation-land use control
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1. Innovative monitoring and regional evaluation system research
2. Integrative modelling research for low carbon society
3. Urban and regional eco‐city design model and simulation research
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3. Urban and regional eco city design model and simulation research
Development of regional scale integrated assessment model for designing low carbon society in Indonesia
‐ energy sectors and non‐energy sectors such as
forest management and material recycling system
By establishing environmental database consisting of urban scale statistical data; monitoring network data as well as spatial GIS and satellite information, strategic district design and urban design will be identified for low carbon society and eco cities.(TBR)
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Low Carbon District Design Models
Spatial Policy/ Tech. Process Packages
Development of Regional Integrated Models (Regional AIM) andSpatial Planning Model to design sustainable regions and cities
Design of Vision and Road Map for National Scale
Low Carbon Industrial System
Local Heat/Energy Management
National End Use Model
*CGE model National Targets
Analysis for Province Scale
EndUse
Model
Fukushima
CGEModel
Fukushima
TargetsLow Carbon Urban Design Model
Planning for Local ScaleKabupaten Cota
Kecamatan Kelurahan
Snap Shot
Models
Policy Support Tools
Local Targets
Strategic Spatial Zoning System
Social Monitoring System & Project Data Buildings Industries Life Style
Regional Parame‐ters
*Computational General Equilibrium
Integrated Model (AIM)
Fukushima
R. Maps
National Road Maps
Forestry Eco System Service Model
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Multi Stage Approach for Eco‐City and EIP Planning
③Project Design
②Spatial‐scope
Land use zoning /network design
・ land use distribution patterns
・ local energy network・location of core developments
①Macro‐scope・ population, industries
・ core developments
・ energy locality
Alternative future vision
▪ zoning and regulation
▪ district planning
▪ key industries
Core projects for revitalization
( )
なりゆきシナリオ
LNG立地シナリオ
産業振興シナリオ
環境産業共生シナリオ
Feasibility Study
Future frame
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LNG Power Plant
LNG base
Soma city
Newly located
industries
Plant factories
Mega solar
Energy management
BaU scenario for Fukushima in 2030
Komagamine
To Natori
New town
around Station
Electricity
HeatCoolGas(LNG)
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x
Food industries
Data center
LNG Power Plant
LNG base
Soma city
Newly located
industries
Newly located industries
Plant factories
To Natori
Energy management
Electricity
HeatCoolGas(LNG)
Proposal of Smart Energy System for Fukushima in 2030
Komagamine
Mega solar
Plant factories
New town
around Station
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0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
Estimation of Alternative Future Recovery Scenarios
Urban
Industry
野菜工場
[Mt‐CO2/年
]
50%
減
Quantification of Impacts and Costs
Effects of Lo
cal Energy
Managem
ent
Alternative Spatial Scenario
Estimation of CO2 Emission
Urban Agri‐cuilt.
+Green
Growth
BA
U+C
ompact C
ity
Green growth can double the Carbon Efficiency
Industry
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1. Innovative monitoring and regional evaluation system research
2. Integrative modelling research for low carbon society
3. Urban and regional eco‐city design model and simulation research
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Innovative Monitoring and Reporting, Verification System in Asian Countries
Heat supply facility
Thermal power plantLNG terminal
Factories
Solar thermal
CO2 and heat
Plant factory
Service performance
GPS
①District energy behavior support network project
②Aging community living support network project
Housing reconstruction, etc.
information of power saving
Data accumulation
Energy plan to utilize local industry stock being deployed
in the future
Public transportation system operation plan responding to the super-aging society
Two way information network using the internet
The actual situation of the
use
・Energy consumption monitoring system・Two way communication tablet・Installation in 50 to 100 homes
Housing reconstruction, etc.
Public facility
Energy consumption data
Housing reconstruction, etc.
School
Production of
electricity from solar
panel
You are the ○ in the district in the power saving
rankings
We accomplished energy conservation equivalent
to CO2 ○ amount.
Let's tell friends how to do this.
We
conserved a
lot of power
today.
Mass transit system
Solar panels of the existing
③Local transportation behavior support network project
Utilize basic information for creating the future town
Information of welfare
Let's go to the library since I have 5 fellows waiting to play Go.
④Smart hybrid center project
Greenhouse gas Observing SATellite
GOSATGround Monitoring System of GHG
Smart Monitoring Network System for Eco Cities
International Financial System for Low Carbon City Development
Joint carbon Credit Mechanism Projects
Validation
Verification
Eco-city Evaluation and Validation26
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Research Project of Local CO2 Future Tech-A; 2014-
- Integrative Assessment
to identify technology effects with policy system implementation focusing
CO2 and other socio-environmental effects
- Inter-temporal Assessment
to identify the suitability of technology and policy packages based on the
future targets and present situations
- Inter-Scale Assessmentto identify the suitability of technology and policy packages based on the
future targets and present situations
- Interactive Assessmentto apply methodology and tools into local planning and decision making
process for Fukushima Restoration plans after radio-active pollution
removal
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List or related publications
• Yong Geng, Fujita Tsuyoshi, Xudong Chen; Evaluation of Innovative Municipal Solid Waste Management through Urban Symbiosis: A Case Study of Kawasaki, Environmental Sci and Tech., 2009 (revised)
• Rene Van Berkel, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Shizuka Hashimoto, Minoru Fujii;Quantitative Assessment of Urban and Industrial Symbiosis in Kawasaki, Japan, Environmental Science & Technology , Vol.43, No.5, 2009 ,pp.1271-1281,0129.2009
• Rene van Berkel, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Shizuka Hashimoto, Yong Geng;Industrial and Urban Symbiosis in Japan : Analysis of the Eco-Town Program 1997-2006;Journal of Environmental Management, vol.90,pp.1544-1556,2009
• Shizuka Hashimoto, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Yong Geng, Emiri Nagasawa; Achieving CO2 Emission Reduction through Industrial Symbiosis: A Case of Kawasaki , Journal of Environmental Management, 2008 (submitted)
• Yong Geng,Qinghua Zhu, Brent Doberstein,Tsuyoshi Fujita; Implementing China’s Circular Economy Concept at the Regional Level: a review of progress in Dalian, China, Journal of Waste Management, vol.29,pp996-1002,2009
• Yong Geng, Rene Van Berkel , Tsuyoshi Fujita ;Regional Initiatives on Promoting Cleaner Production in China: A Case of Liaoning, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2008 (submitted)
• Zhu Qinghua, Yong Geng, Tsuyoshi Fujita , Shizuka Hashimoto ;Green supply chain management in leading manufacturers: Case studies in Japanese large companies, International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 2008 (submitted)
• Yong Geng, Pang Zhang, Raymond P. Cote, Tsuyoshi Fujita;Assessment of the National Eco-industrial Park Standards for Promoting Industrial Symbiosis in China, J. of Industrial Ecology, Vol.13, No.1, pp.15-26, 2008
• Looi-Fang Wong, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Kaiquin Xu; Evaluation of regional bio-energy recovery by local methane fermentation thermal recycling systems, Journal of Waste Management,vol.28, pp.2259-2270, 2008
Thank you for your Attention