international finance - international monetary system 21-28

8
Free Floating Value of the currency is determined by market demand for and supply of the currency. Trade flows and capital flows are the main factors affecting the exchange rate. There is no pre-determined official target for the exchange rate and the monetary authorities can set interest rates as target variable for monetary policy objective. In the long-run macroeconomic factors, like performance of the economy, technological development, productivity and competitiveness etc. drives the value of the currency. It is rare for pure free floating exchange rates to exist - most governments at one time or another seek to "manage" the value of their currency through changes in interest rates and other controls.

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Page 1: International FInance - International Monetary System 21-28

Fre

e F

loa

tin

g

•V

alu

e o

f th

e c

urr

en

cy i

s d

ete

rmin

ed

by

ma

rke

t d

em

an

d f

or

an

d s

up

ply

of

the

cu

rre

ncy

. Tr

ad

e f

low

s a

nd

ca

pit

al

flo

ws

are

th

e m

ain

fa

cto

rs a

ffe

ctin

g t

he

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

.

•T

he

re i

s n

o p

re-d

ete

rmin

ed

off

icia

l ta

rge

t fo

r th

e e

xch

an

ge

ra

te a

nd

th

e m

on

eta

ry a

uth

ori

tie

s ca

n s

et

inte

rest

ra

tes

as

targ

et

vari

ab

le f

or

mo

ne

tary

po

licy

ob

ject

ive

.

•In

th

e l

on

g-r

un

ma

cro

eco

no

mic

fa

cto

rs,

like

pe

rfo

rma

nce

of

the

eco

no

my,

te

chn

olo

gic

al

de

velo

pm

en

t, p

rod

uct

ivit

y a

nd

co

mp

eti

tive

ne

ss e

tc.

dri

ves

the

va

lue

of

the

cu

rre

ncy

.

•It

is

rare

fo

r p

ure

fre

e f

loa

tin

g e

xch

an

ge

ra

tes

to e

xist

-m

ost

g

ove

rnm

en

ts a

t o

ne

tim

e o

r a

no

the

r se

ek

to

"m

an

ag

e"

the

va

lue

of

the

ir c

urr

en

cy t

hro

ug

h c

ha

ng

es

in i

nte

rest

ra

tes

an

d o

the

r co

ntr

ols

.

Page 2: International FInance - International Monetary System 21-28

Ma

na

ge

d F

loa

tin

g

•U

nd

er

the

ma

na

ge

d f

loa

tin

g r

eg

ime

, th

ou

gh

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

is

de

term

ine

d b

y m

ark

et

forc

es

of

de

ma

nd

an

d s

up

ply

, th

e

cen

tra

l b

an

ks o

r th

e g

ove

rnm

en

ts s

et

som

e k

ind

ta

rge

t e

xch

an

ge

ra

te t

o p

rote

ct t

he

ir e

xpo

rts/

imp

ort

. T

he

ce

ntr

al

ba

nks

th

us

reg

ula

rly

in

terv

en

e i

n t

he

fo

reig

n e

xch

an

ge

m

ark

et

to p

reve

nt

an

y k

ind

of

exc

ess

ive

vo

lati

lity

or

div

erg

en

ce f

rom

th

e t

arg

et

rate

.

•C

urr

en

cy c

an

mo

ve b

etw

ee

n p

erm

itte

d b

an

ds

of

flu

ctu

ati

on

. E

xch

an

ge

ra

te i

s d

om

ina

nt

targ

et

of

eco

no

mic

p

oli

cy-m

ak

ing

•In

tere

st r

ate

, m

on

ey

su

pp

ly a

nd

th

e F

II/F

DI

po

licy

are

als

o

set

to m

ee

t th

e t

arg

et

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

.

Page 3: International FInance - International Monetary System 21-28

Ad

van

tag

es

of

flo

ati

ng

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

s

•F

luct

ua

tio

ns

in t

he

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

ca

n p

rov

ide

an

au

tom

ati

c a

dju

stm

en

t fo

r co

un

trie

s w

ith

a l

arg

e b

ala

nce

of

pa

ym

en

ts d

efi

cit.

If

an

eco

no

my

ha

s a

la

rge

de

fici

t, t

he

re i

s a

ne

t o

utf

low

of

curr

en

cy

fro

m t

he

co

un

try.

Th

is p

uts

do

wn

wa

rd p

ress

ure

on

th

e e

xch

an

ge

ra

te a

nd

if

a d

ep

reci

ati

on

occ

urs

, th

e r

ela

tive

pri

ce o

f e

xpo

rts

in

ove

rse

as

ma

rke

ts f

all

s w

hil

e t

he

re

lati

ve p

rice

of

imp

ort

s in

th

e

ho

me

ma

rke

ts g

oe

s u

p.

Th

is l

ea

ds

to r

ed

uce

th

e o

vera

ll d

efi

cit

in

the

ba

lan

ce o

f tr

ad

e p

rov

ide

d t

ha

t th

e p

rice

ela

stic

ity

of

de

ma

nd

fo

r e

xpo

rts

an

d t

he

pri

ce e

last

icit

y o

f d

em

an

d f

or

imp

ort

s is

su

ffic

ien

tly

h

igh

.

•F

loa

tin

g e

xch

an

ge

ra

tes

giv

es

the

go

vern

me

nt

/ m

on

eta

ry

au

tho

riti

es’

fle

xib

ilit

y i

n d

ete

rmin

ing

in

tere

st r

ate

s. T

his

is

be

cau

se

inte

rest

ra

tes

do

no

t h

ave

to

be

se

t to

ke

ep

th

e v

alu

e o

f th

e

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

wit

hin

pre

-de

term

ine

d b

an

ds.

Page 4: International FInance - International Monetary System 21-28

Co

ntd

.

•B

ala

nce

of

Pa

ym

en

ts o

n c

urr

en

t a

cco

un

t d

ise

qu

ilib

riu

m c

an

a

uto

ma

tica

lly

be

re

sto

red

to

eq

uil

ibri

um

flo

ati

ng

exc

ha

ng

e

rate

re

gim

e a

nd

th

e s

carc

ity

or

surp

lus

of

an

y c

urr

en

cy i

s e

lim

ina

ted

un

de

r fl

oa

tin

g e

xch

an

ge

ra

te r

eg

ime

. B

ala

nce

of

pa

ym

en

t a

dju

stm

en

t is

sm

oo

the

r a

nd

pa

inle

ss u

nd

er

flo

ati

ng

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

re

gim

e c

om

pa

red

to

fix

ed

exc

ha

ng

e

rate

sys

tem

.

•A

uto

no

my

of

mo

ne

tary

au

tho

riti

es

pre

serv

e u

nd

er

flo

ati

ng

e

xch

an

ge

ra

te s

yste

m a

s th

ere

is

no

ta

rge

t e

xch

an

ge

ra

te t

o

ma

inta

in.

Th

e f

un

da

me

nta

l a

rgu

me

nt

in f

avo

ur

flo

ati

ng

e

xch

an

ge

ra

te s

yste

m i

s th

at

it a

llo

ws

cou

ntr

ies

au

ton

om

y

wit

h r

esp

ect

to

th

eir

use

of

mo

ne

tary

, fi

sca

l a

nd

oth

er

po

licy

in

stru

me

nts

an

d a

t th

e s

am

e t

ime

ext

ern

al

eq

uil

ibri

um

is

en

sure

d b

eca

use

of

fle

xib

le e

xch

an

ge

ra

te.

Page 5: International FInance - International Monetary System 21-28

Arg

um

en

t a

ga

inst

flo

ati

ng

exc

ha

ng

e

rate

s•

Ma

rke

t fo

rce

s m

ay

fa

il t

o d

ete

rmin

e t

he

ap

pro

pri

ate

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

an

d

he

nce

flo

ati

ng

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

re

gim

e m

ay

no

t p

rovid

e t

he

de

sire

d r

esu

lts

an

d m

ay

als

o l

ea

d t

o m

isa

llo

cati

on

of

reso

urc

es.

•It

is

imp

oss

ible

to

ha

ve a

n e

xch

an

ge

ra

te s

yste

m w

ith

ou

t o

ffic

ial

inte

rve

nti

on

. G

ove

rnm

en

t m

ay

no

t in

terv

en

e,

ho

we

ver

do

me

stic

m

on

eta

ry p

oli

cy a

nd

fis

cal

po

licy

wo

uld

de

fin

ite

ly i

nfl

ue

nce

th

e e

xch

an

ge

ra

te.

•A

wil

dly

flu

ctu

ati

ng

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

at

the

me

rcy

of

na

tio

na

l a

nd

in

tern

ati

on

al

curr

en

cy s

pe

cula

tors

. V

ola

tile

exc

ha

ng

e r

ate

in

tro

du

ces

con

sid

era

ble

un

cert

ain

ty i

n e

xpo

rt a

nd

im

po

rt p

rice

s a

nd

co

nse

qu

en

tly

to

e

con

om

ic d

eve

lop

me

nt.

At

the

sa

me

tim

e,

ab

oli

tio

n o

f e

xch

an

ge

co

ntr

ols

ca

use

s ca

pit

al

flig

ht.

•A

de

pre

cia

tin

g c

urr

en

cy w

ill

he

lp a

co

un

try

's e

xpo

rtin

g s

ect

or.

Ho

we

ver,

th

e c

ost

of

imp

ort

s w

ill

inva

ria

bly

ris

e l

ea

din

g t

o c

ost

pu

sh in

fla

tio

na

ry

pre

ssu

res.

Th

ose

pe

op

le w

ho

se liv

eli

ho

od

s re

ly o

n t

he

co

nsu

mp

tio

n o

f g

oo

ds

wit

h h

igh

imp

ort

co

nte

nt

wil

l e

xpe

rie

nce

ha

rdsh

ip.

Page 6: International FInance - International Monetary System 21-28

Cu

rre

ncy

Bo

ard

Sys

tem

•U

nd

er

a C

urr

en

cy B

oa

rd r

eg

ime

th

e d

om

est

ic c

urr

en

cy is

ba

cke

d (

ge

ne

rall

y

mo

re t

ha

n 5

0%

) w

ith

fo

reig

n c

urr

en

cy r

ese

rve

s a

nd

th

e B

oa

rd is

ma

nd

ate

d

to c

on

vert

do

me

stic

cu

rre

ncy

into

fo

reig

n c

urr

en

cy o

n d

em

an

d a

t a

fix

ed

p

rice

.

•A

cu

rre

ncy

bo

ard

ma

inta

ins

ab

solu

te,

un

lim

ite

d c

on

vert

ibil

ity

be

twe

en

its

n

ote

s a

nd

co

ins

an

d t

he

cu

rre

ncy

ag

ain

st w

hic

h t

he

y a

re p

eg

ge

d,

at

a f

ixe

d

rate

of

exc

ha

ng

e,

wit

h n

o r

est

rict

ion

s o

n c

urr

en

t-a

cco

un

t o

r ca

pit

al

acc

ou

nt

tra

nsa

ctio

ns.

•C

urr

en

cy B

oa

rd r

eg

ime

is

ge

ne

rall

y c

on

sid

ere

d a

s G

old

Sta

nd

ard

wit

ho

ut

Go

ld.

•U

nd

er

curr

en

cy b

oa

rd G

ove

rnm

en

ts c

an

no

t p

rin

t m

on

ey

wit

ho

ut

ba

ckin

g

fore

ign

cu

rre

ncy

ass

ets

an

d h

en

ce it

can

on

ly t

ax

or

bo

rro

w t

o m

ee

t th

eir

sp

en

din

g c

om

mit

me

nts

.

•U

nd

er

curr

en

cy b

oa

rd G

ove

rnm

en

ts c

an

no

t p

rin

t m

on

ey

wit

ho

ut

ba

ckin

g

fore

ign

cu

rre

ncy

ass

ets

an

d h

en

ce it

can

on

ly t

ax

or

bo

rro

w t

o m

ee

t th

eir

sp

en

din

g c

om

mit

me

nts

. (i

nte

rest

ca

n n

ot

be

ch

an

ge

d b

y g

ove

rnm

en

ts)

Page 7: International FInance - International Monetary System 21-28

Ad

van

tag

es

an

d D

isa

dva

nta

ge

s

•C

urr

en

cy B

oa

rds

are

sa

id t

o s

ub

stit

ute

a d

isci

pli

ne

d m

on

eta

ry p

oli

cy r

ule

fo

r u

nd

isci

pli

ne

d d

iscr

eti

on

ary

mo

ne

tary

po

licy

, th

ere

by

eli

min

ati

ng

th

e

infl

ati

on

bia

s o

f th

e l

ate

r.

•T

he

vir

tue

of

this

sys

tem

is

tha

t q

ue

stio

ns

of

curr

en

cy s

tab

ilit

y n

o lo

ng

er

ap

ply

.

•T

he

dra

wb

ack

s a

re t

ha

t th

e c

ou

ntr

y n

o lo

ng

er

ha

s th

e a

bil

ity

to

se

t m

on

eta

ry p

oli

cy a

cco

rdin

g t

o o

the

r d

om

est

ic c

on

sid

era

tio

ns,

an

d t

ha

t th

e

fixe

d e

xch

an

ge

ra

te w

ill,

to

a l

arg

e e

xte

nt,

als

o f

ix a

co

un

try

's t

erm

s o

f tr

ad

e,

irre

spe

ctiv

e o

f e

con

om

ic d

iffe

ren

ces

be

twe

en

it

an

d its

tra

din

g

pa

rtn

ers

.

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

, B

ulg

ari

a,

Lith

ua

nia

, E

sto

nia

an

d m

an

y s

ma

ll e

con

om

ies

ha

ve b

ee

n

pra

ctic

ing

cu

rre

ncy

bo

ard

sys

tem

. A

rge

nti

na

ab

an

do

ne

d it

s cu

rre

ncy

bo

ard

in

Jan

ua

ry 2

00

2 a

fte

r a

se

vere

re

cess

ion

. Ty

pic

all

y, c

urr

en

cy b

oa

rds

ha

ve

ad

van

tag

es

for

sma

ll o

pe

n e

con

om

ies

wh

ich

wo

uld

fin

d in

de

pe

nd

en

t m

on

eta

ry p

oli

cy d

iffi

cult

to

su

sta

in.

Th

ey

ca

n a

lso

fo

rm a

cre

dib

le

com

mit

me

nt

to lo

w i

nfl

ati

on

.

Page 8: International FInance - International Monetary System 21-28

Cu

rre

ncy

Ba

ske

t Sys

tem

A c

urr

en

cy b

ask

et

con

tain

s n

um

be

r o

f cu

rre

nci

es

wit

h d

iffe

ren

t w

eig

ht.

Fo

r

exa

mp

le,

on

e m

ay

co

nst

ruct

a c

urr

en

cy b

ask

et

wit

h 2

5%

Ero

s, 4

0%

U.S

. d

oll

ars

,

an

d 3

5%

Bri

tish

po

un

ds.

Th

e w

eig

ht

an

d t

he

va

lue

of

the

dif

fere

nt

curr

en

cie

s

de

term

ine

th

e C

urr

en

cy B

ask

et

valu

e.

•C

urr

en

cy b

ask

et

pro

vid

es

an

id

ea

l m

eth

od

to

pe

g a

cu

rre

ncy

wit

ho

ut

ove

rexp

osi

ng

it

to t

he

flu

ctu

ati

on

s o

f a

sin

gle

cu

rre

ncy

.

•C

urr

en

cy B

ask

et

is g

en

era

lly

use

d m

eth

od

fo

r st

ab

iliz

ing

th

e v

alu

e o

f a

na

tio

na

l

curr

en

cy a

ga

inst

mu

ltip

le f

ree

ly-t

rad

ed

oth

er

curr

en

cie

s.

•S

om

e c

ou

ntr

ies

ha

ve v

ery

lit

tle

in

tere

st i

n f

loa

tin

g t

he

ir n

ati

on

al

curr

en

cie

s o

n

the

op

en

ma

rke

t, o

fte

n b

eca

use

of

hig

h i

nfl

ati

on

in

th

eir

pa

st.

•O

ne

me

tho

d o

f co

ntr

oll

ing

th

is is

to t

ie t

he

va

lue

of

you

r n

ati

on

al

curr

en

cy t

o

an

oth

er

cou

ntr

y's

str

on

g c

urr

en

cy,

as

wa

s se

en

re

cen

tly

in

Arg

en

tin

a w

ith

th

e

pe

so's

va

lue

tie

d t

o t

he

U.S

. d

oll

ar.

•H

ow

eve

r, t

his

ca

n c

au

se p

rob

lem

s .

Arg

en

tin

ian

exp

ort

s b

eca

me

un

com

pe

titi

ve b

eca

use

th

ey

ha

d t

o b

e p

aid

fo

r in

US

D a

s th

e d

oll

ar

kep

t ri

sin

g

aga

inst

oth

er

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