international seminar kester unwto 2030 .pdf
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UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Tourism 2020 Vision revisited … a road map for Tourism Towards 2030
John G.C. KesterChief of Market Trends, Competitiveness Section
World Tourism Organization www.unwto.org
ETC / UNWTO Joint International Seminar on Tourism Forecasting and Strategic Planning12 September 2008, MODUL University Vienna, Austria
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Long-term trends and forecastsUNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision revisited
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
WTO Tourism 2020 VisionWhat is it?A program of research and forecasting as a continuation of WTO’s work in the area of tourism forecasts initiated in 1990 (The Global Tourism Forecasts to the Year 2000 and Beyond set of reports).
Objectives?• to identify the key trends in tourism supply and demand
worldwide and by region; and• their impact on the various sectors of the tourism trades;
together with• implications for policy making and relevant strategies.
Where are the quantitative estimates based on?• past performance in tourism development• assessment by experts of future growth trends
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
UNWTO Tourism 2020 VisionSeries of 7 Reports:- Global Forecast and Profiles of Market Segments- 6 regional volumes
See: www.unwto.org/infoshop
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Short-term forecastFocus on current situation and cyclical trends
political and economic climate (‘coyuntura’)Use: operational / tactical, i.e.:
marketing and promotion activitiescapacity management, pricing, etc.
Long-term forecastFocus on structural, underlying trends
demographic, social, political, economic and technological developments
Use: strategic, i.e.:planning of infrastructure, product development, legislation, competitive frameworkmaster plans, strategic marketing planning, HR
Tourism Prospects
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
International Tourist Arrivals, 1950-2020Current situation and forecasts UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2007 2010 2020
milli
on
Middle East
Africa
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Europe
Actual Forecasts
903 mn
1 bn
1.6 b
536 mn
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
1995 2010 20201995-2020
Base Year Forecasts Average annual growth rate (%)
Africa
Americas
East Asia and the Pacific
Europe
Middle East
South Asia
World
20
110
81
336
14
4
565
47
190
195
527
36
11
1006
77
282
397
717
69
19
1561
5.5
3.8
6.5
3.1
6.7
6.2
4.1
Forecasts by Receiving RegionInternational Tourist Arrivals, 1995-2020
(Million) 1995 2020
Market share (%)
3.6
19.3
14.4
59.8
2.2
0.7
100
5.0
18.1
25.4
45.9
4.4
1.2
100
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
International Tourist Arrivals
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
milli
on
Tourism 2020 Vision forecastActual 1995-2007
1.0 bn
903 mn
1.6 bn
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecastWorld
536 mn
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
International Tourist Arrivals
4.1
6.5
3.9
5.5
7.1
4.4
7.0
2.3
6.8
10.9
3.03.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
World Europe Asia & Pacific Americas Africa Middle East
Aver
age a
nnua
l gro
wth
rate
(%)
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2007
174831
6-3094447diff.44142184484903actual38172175440856proj.
(2007, mn)
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecastWorld
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
International Tourist Arrivals
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
milli
on
Tourism 2020 Vision forecastActual 1995-2007
527 mn484 mn
717 mn
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecastEurope
311 mn
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
International Tourist Arrivals
3.01.9
4.22.8
3.82.7
3.94.63.8 4.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Europe Northern Western Central / Eastern Southern /Mediterranean
Aver
age
annu
al gr
owth
rate
(%)
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2007
32-415244diff.1769615558484actual14410014056440proj.
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecastEurope
(2007, mn)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
4%
20%15%
58%
3%
EuropeEuropeAsia and the PacificAsia and the PacificAmericasAmericasAfricaAfricaMiddle EastMiddle East
5%
16%20%
54%
5%
Market Share (%) Market Share (%) -- 19951995
Market Share (%) Market Share (%) -- 20072007
International Tourist Arrivals by region of destination
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
International Tourist Arrivals
7.8
3.52.6
2.1
3.4 3.6
6.8 7.1
3.6
8.6
1.5
4.8
2.63.2
0.5
7.3 7.2
0.7
2.3 2.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
China
France
United S
tates
Spain Italy
United K
ingdom
Mexico
Russian
Federati
onHong
Kong (C
hina)
Canada
Aver
age a
nnua
l gro
wth
rate
(%)
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2006
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecastWorld’s Top destinations 2020
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
International Tourist Arrivals
1.2
5.5 5.05.9
4.93.1
8.0 7.46.6 6.9
4.3
9.38.1
6.98.8
4.35.9
10.5 11.2 11.38.4
17.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Germany
Croatia
Turkey
Malaysi
a
India
Morocco
Tunisia
South A
frica
Egypt
Un. Arab
Emirates
Bahrain
Aver
age
annu
al g
rowt
h ra
te (%
)
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2006
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecastRising stars (destinations > 5 mn)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Inbound Tourism, 1995-2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1995 2000 2005 2007*
International Tourism Receipts (US$ billion)- from US$ 405 billion in 1995 to 856 billion in 2007
International Tourist Arrivals (million)- from 536 million in 1995 to 903 million in 2006- average growth of 4.4% a year
International Tourism Receipts (euro/ecu billion)- from euro 310 billion in 1995 to 625 billion in 2007
International tourism volume and receipts:growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
96/95 97/96 98/97 99/98 '00/'99 '01/'00 '02/'01 '03/'02 '04/'03 '05/'04 '06/'05 '07*/'06
% c
hang
e ov
er p
revi
ous
year
international tourist arrivalsinternational tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)
International tourism volume and receipts:growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals
Asian financial and economic crisis:expenditure grew slower
11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Growth of International Tourism 1995-2007growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals
4.43.8
7.0
2.3
6.8
10.9
3.63.1
5.8
1.8
10.0
7.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
World Europe Asia and thePacific
Americas Africa Middle East
Ave
rage
ann
ual g
row
th ra
te (%
)
international tourist arrivalsinternational tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
International Tourist Arrivals
4.1
6.4
3.1
6.2 5.8
4.2
6.1
2.5
6.1
9.0
3.4 3.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
World Europe Asia & Pacific Americas Africa Middle East
Aver
age a
nnua
l gro
wth
rate
(%)
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2006
72518
0-10-62324diff.24142167474846actual25152172451821proj.
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecastOutbound tourism
(2006, mn)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
International Tourist Arrivals
3.84.1
5.44.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
from same region from other regions
Aver
age a
nnua
l gro
wth
rate
(%)
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2006
-1118diff.163669actual174651proj.
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecastOutbound tourism
International tourist arrivals
97 mn 163 mn
431 mn 669 mn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2006*
shar
e (%
)
from sameregion
Origin notspecified
from otherregions
(2006, mn)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Where were we right?• overall world forecast, both direction and volume (aag +4.1%) • strong growth for emerging destinations and source markets• strong growth for Asia and the Pacific and for Africa• more moderate growth for Europe• increase of share of Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and
Africa, and decrease of Europe and the Americas• emergence of China as a major inbound and outbound market• demography: aging population, increased VFR, changing
households• change from ‘service’ to ‘experience’
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Where have we missed …?• underestimation of the potential of the Middle East• overestimation of the growth of North America• various country estimates• overestimation of interregional growth• underestimation of the impact of new technologies, in particular of
the internet, in terms of:– information, promotion and marketing– distribution, sales, pricing, management and service– more transparency and power to consumer
• explosion of low cost airlines in Europe, Asia and the Middle East• unexpected events not catered for• border facilitation (+/-)• socio-environmental awareness (+/-)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Tourism 2020 Vision: Conclusions• strong resilience and capacity of recovery against adverse
conditions (economic downturns, terrorism, health threats, natural disasters, etc.)
• strong underlying demand, with still huge potential for growth:– both from increase of participation and increased frequency: more often
but shorter stays– from current travellers but above all from new emerging middle classes– sizable populations in developing countries currently still only take part in
international tourism very limitedly– many emerging economies show rapid economic growth resulting in
increasing disposable incomes, a relative big share of this increase will be spent on tourism (domestic as well as international)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Worldwide Participation in TourismInternational Arrivals generated per 100 population per year
1.02.3
4.56.4
8.7
11.5
21
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
UNWTO Forecast Tourism 2020 Vision
Real values 1950-2000• in 1950 less than one international trip per 100 population, versus 11.5 in 2000• tourism participation expected still almost to have doubled in 2020
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Participation in Outbound TourismArrivals generated per 100 population per year
6
20
101
6 2 0,2
11
46
16
5 72 0,5
21
81
2317 13
61,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
World Europe Americas East Asia andthe Pacific
Middle East Africa South Asia
198020002020
• Real values 1980-2000, Forecast 2020• There is a considerable variation between regions: Europe has currently 46 trips per 100 population and South Asia only one• The fastest growth will be recorded in EAP (in 2020 will have reached a level comparable with Europe in 1980s) and in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia (from a lower base)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Long-term trends and forecastsUNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map for an
updated long-term forecast
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road mapElements:• Quantitative forecast for the world and by (sub)region• Qualitative assessment for the world, by region and country• Sectors, products and market segments• ThemesPrinciples:• Extend scope:
– explore relationship tourism development and economic growth– analyse trend by means of transport– analyse trend by purpose of visit (leisure, business, VFR, etc.)– analyse trend in the use of accommodation– international vs. domestic tourism
• Introduce scenario approach
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road mapWorld, (sub)regions and countries• Quantitative forecast
– inbound tourism worldwide and by (sub)regions– inbound tourism by region of origin– outbound tourism by (sub)region of destination– inbound tourism by means of transport– inbound tourism by purpose of visit– use of accommodation
• How– extrapolation of actual time series with use of econometric model– contrast results with expert knowledge (Delphi)– introduce margin, with forecast within an interval with lower and upper variant– introduce variants based on differing conditions (scenarios)
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Regions and countries• Qualitative information
– stocktaking through country survey about:• past evolution• future prospects• available master plans, development plans, investment plans, etc.• forecasts developed by the country• targets set
– active participation requested of NTA’s and NTO’s
– opening of web resource
UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Sectors, products and segments:Exploration of future trends with regard to:• destinations• transport• accommodation & catering• travel distribution, tour operators, travel agencies• products: sun and beach, city trips, wellness, adventure,
meetings industry, special interest, etc.• segments: family, youth, single, senior, VFR, FIT, etc.
UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
Themes: Authoritative contributions on various subjects relevant for future
development, such as:• sustainability
– Climate change– Congestion management
• new technologies• changing demographics (aging, family composition, immigration)• developing countries and poverty alleviation• human resources - decent work• safety, security and emergency response• competitiveness• legal framework and facilitation• marketing and promotion
UNWTO Tourism 2030: a road map
UNWTO Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
John KesterMarket Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section
email: [email protected]
Thank you very much for your attention!
World Tourism Organization
www.unwto.org