International Shipping and Climate Change

Michael SuttonA/g Executive Director

Infrastructure and Surface Transport Policy

Outline

• UNFCCC framework, role of ICAO and IMO

• Emissions from fuel used for international transport

• International shipping and reduction measures

• IMO work on GHG policy framework

International transport emissions

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

CO

2 em

issi

on

s (M

t) Maritime

Aviation

52.9%

42.5%

Source: International Energy Agency

International process

• National targets under UNFCCC

• Address International bunkers

through ICAO and IMO

• Post Kyoto congruent process

towards end 2009 agreement

• CO2 principal greenhouse gas in

relation to transport

Estimates of global shipping emissions

Study Fuel Consumption MMT

CO2

MMT

IMO 2000 138 (120-147) 419.3

Endresen et. al. 2003 158 501.0

Corbett & Koehler 2003 289 912.0

Eyring et. al. 2005 280 812.63

IMO 2007 study - Informal Cross Government/Industry/scientific group of experts

369 1120

Shipping sector

• World GDP grew by 4.0% while volume of world trade grew by 8.0%

• 60,000 ships in world trade as at January 2007 • Estimated to grow by11% by 2020• Big ships to grow by around 60% over the period• Estimated fuel consumption nearly 500 million tons in 2020,

a one quarter increase in fuel consumption from 2007 figures.

Reduction measures

Three broad categories

– Technical: fuel efficiency measures or alternate fuel and energy source

– Operational: ship/port operational changes for improved efficiency and

fuel savings

– Market based: economic instrument to encourage behavioural change

Technical measures

• Short term energy savings achievable through application of

current technologies

• Potential of technical measures to reduce CO2 emissions

estimated as 5-30% in new ships and 4-20% in existing ships

• HFO quality poor and approaching acceptable critical

specification both environmentally and for engine performance

Operational measures

• Potential of operational measures estimated as 1-40%

• Speed selection alone results in highest reduction of CO2

• 25% reduction in turn around time reduces CO2 by 1-4%

• Reduction in turn around time with speed selection can reduce

CO2 by 14-17%

Market based measures

• Can drive technical and operational changes

• Ship emissions outside national control

• Policy instrument needs to be comprehensive and global

in scope

IMO 2009 GHG study

• Update to GHG 2000 study to inform IMO deliberations on a

global agreement by end 2009

• Phase I to inform on current inventories, future scenarios and

climate impact from CO2 emissions

• MEPC 58 in October to discuss Phase I of the report

• Phase 2 to fully inform on current inventories, future scenarios,

climate impact and reduction potential

GHG: IMO fundamental principles

• Effective in contributing to reduction of total global GHG emissions• Binding and equally applicable to all flag states• Cost effective• Able to limit or effectively minimise competitive distortion• Should not penalise global trade and growth• Goal based approach and not prescribe specific methods• Support technical innovation and R&D in shipping• Accommodate leading technologies in energy efficiency• Practical, transparent, fraud free and easy to administer

IMO timeline• Keep one step ahead of the UNFCCC process

PossibleCO2 Index Science Based Report

Possible Technical and Operational Measures

Jul-09

Possible GHG Reduction Strategy

Nov-09Mar-08 Oct-08 Mar-09Jun-08 Dec-08

GHG Study Phase ICO2 emission inventory

Future emission scenarios

UNFCCCCOP 151-12 Dec 2009

Intersessional MEPC WGConsider GHG Study

MEPC 58Possible Agreement on:- CO2 index

- Technical and operational best practices

Discuss Market Based options

Intersessional MEPC WGCO2 Design and Operational Index

Market Based Measures

Technical and operational Best Practices

MEPC 57Agreement on: - Sulphur content in fuel

- Fundemental principles for GHG regulations

- Timeline to 2009

GHG Study Phase IIGHG other than CO2

Technical, operational and market based options

Intersessional CGDetailed proposals on measures identified

Interim report MEPC 58

Final Report MEPC 59

Intersessional CGInterim report to MEPC 58

MEPC 59Formulation of Market Based Measure/s

Short term deliverable plan and long term work plan

Intersessional CGFinal report to MEPC 59

IMO AssemblyAgreement on GHG reduction strategy

Conclusion

• No easy answers

• Establish baseline, allocate emissions, design CO2 ship index,

develop technical and operational best practices and

formulate market based policy instrument

• Global solution

• Simple, practical and effective

• Does not penalise global trade and growth in shipping industry