international strategy and management. international growth strategy global, international,...
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International growth strategyGlobal, international, multidomestic
Entering foreign marketsMarket selection, timing, operational decisions
Entry modesExporting, licensing, franchising, joint ventures, strategic alliances,
Global marketing strategyGlobal manufacturing strategy
Core Topics
GlobalizationDrivers, consequences, success factors
Global ethicsImpact on business
CultureDeterminants, impact on business
Foreign exchangeInternational human resource management
Additional Topics
Global Business TodayCharles W.L. Hill; Irwin
Textbooks
Mastering Global MarketsCzinkota, Ronkainen, and Donath; Thompson
Total Global StrategyGeorge S. Yip; Prentice Hall
Lecture / DiscussionSlides on web (before, complete)
ExercisesHill – GlobalEDGE
Case studiesSimulation: Country Manager
Interpretive Software
Pedagogy
The way it was….Self-contained national economies, isolation, differences in govt., culture, and business systems
The way it is…Reduced barriers (GATT, tariffs), shrinking distance (technology, transportation, culture), interdependent economies• Sample slides
Globalization
Average Tariff Rates(Manufactured Products as % of Value)
1913 1950 1990 2000
France 21 18 5.9 3.9
Germany 20 26 5.9 3.9
Italy 18 25 5.9 3.9
Japan 30 5.3 3.9
Holland 5 11 5.9 3.9
Sweden 20 9 4.4 3.9
Britain 23 5.9 3.9
U.S. 44 14 4.8 3.9
Growth – World Trade & Output
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Trade
Output(GDP)
National Composition of MNCs
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Rest of World
Latin America
W.Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
1973 1990 1997 2000
U.S.A. 48.5% 31.5% 32.4% 26%
Japan 3.5 12 15.7 17
U.K. 18.8 6.8 6.6 8
France 7.3 10.4 9.8 13
Germany 8.1 .9 12.7 12
The Changing World Order
The fall of Communism in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.Czechoslovakia has divided itself into two states.Yugoslavia has divided into 5 (often warring) successor states.Pro-democracy movement (suppressed) in China.Latin America has seen both democracy and free market reforms.
Driving to work: The typical “American” experience
Your carYour gasolineYour investmentsYour entertainmentYour morning snackYour news
Globalization
“Has Globalization Gone Too Far?”
Rodrik - California Management Review, Vol. 39, No. 3, Spring 1997
What are the tensions between social stability and globalization?
Globalization
The Impact of Globalization
Jobs and income
Firms move jobs to low cost countries
Countries specialize in efficiently
produced goods and import those
they can not efficiently produce
Increases income in less developed
countries
May lead to income inequality
Labor policies and the environment
Firms move to countries with weak laws
Economic progress leads to stronger laws
By creating wealth and incentives for
technology improvements, world will be
better
Tie strong laws to international
agreements
The Impact of Globalization
What makes a company global?
“What Makes a Company Global”Kogut - HBR Reprint 99106
Multinational / MultidomesticProducts differ greatly among country markets; high transportation costs, no scale economies
GlobalBenefit from worldwide volume; larger production plants (MES), larger production runs, more efficient logistics networks, higher volume distribution networks
Global Success Factors
Industry potentialTimingEntry barriersFirst mover advantage
Preempting leading positions in NICsCreate switching costsBlock access to supply chain
Arbitrage – exploiting differencesCulture, administration, geography, economics“The Forgotten Strategy”
• Ghemawat - HBR Reprint R0311E
Globalization - Exercise
globalEDGE ExerciseglobalEDGE Diagnostic ToolsGLOBE: Globalization Benchmark
Guiding Principles
Three Guiding PrinciplesRespect for core human values, which determine the absolute moral threshold for all business activities.Respect for local traditions.The belief that context matters when deciding what is right and what is wrong.
“Values in Tension: Ethics Away From Home”Donaldson – HBR Reprint 96502
Global Ethical Perspective
Treat corporate values and formal standards as absolutes.Design and implement conditions of engagement for suppliers and customers.Allow foreign business units to help formulate ethical standards and interpret ethical issues.In host countries, support efforts to decrease institutional corruption.Exercise moral imagination.
Global Ethics
Incentives to be ethicalAvoid legal penalties, bad PR, employee satisfaction
Ethics and corruptionForeign Corrupt Practices Act 1977
Example
Ethics and human rightChina & Tibet
Alien Tort Statute 1789 – Unocal in Myanmar
Ethics and Corruption
After graduating, your first assignment lands you in Asia as the local director of a U.S. pharmaceutical firm. It was a small operation, but you have big plans. You hope to segment your customers, empower your workers, implement just-in-time production, and use the balanced scorecard to keep score. You figure to double your business in the first year.
But right now, you’re thinking it might have been a better idea to take that consulting offer instead.
The first million-dollar shipment of your company’s new HIV-fighting drug has just been removed from the refrigerated C-130 cargo plane. It sits on the steaming tarmac, not 30 feet away, practically melting in the midday heat. Another twenty minutes, and it’s ruined. Unfortunately, you can’t seem to clear it through customs. There is some question as to the approval process that a new product has to go through to enter the country. You’re not sure you can wait.
The friendly local customs official cruising around the airport looks from you to the metal container, trying to decide which of you is sweating more profusely. Leaning against the counter, he reviews your bills of lading and other customs documents. “Your papers look to be in order, but I am just not sure about the proper approval process,” he says. You despair. Re-opening the approval process will take time you don’t have. What should you do?!?
Fortunately, you remember the $1000 traveler’s check in your back pocket that’s supposed to pay for your apartment deposit. You walk over to the official, grab the manifest, stuff the check into the stack of papers, and hand it back to him. A smile spreads across his face. He decides that his insecurity about the approval process has lessened. “You are so thoughtful to understand. I look forward to conducting further business with you. Your cargo is cleared through customs.”
Global Ethics - Case
Hitting the Wall: Nike and International Labor Practices – HBS 9-700-047 Managing a multinational firm involves managing and exploiting differences among countries. In the case of workplace standards and environmental protection, managers have to understand the underlying tradeoffs and balance exploitation of differences with global ethics.
Hitting the Wall: Nike and International Labor Practices – HBS 9-700-047 Managing a multinational firm involves managing and exploiting differences among countries. In the case of workplace standards and environmental protection, managers have to understand the underlying tradeoffs and balance exploitation of differences with global ethics.
Culture
Culture is a system of values and norms shared among a group of people and, when taken together, constitute a design for living.
NormsSocial rules and guidelines that prescribe appropriate behavior in particular situationsFolkways:• Routine conventions of
everyday lifeMores:• Central to functioning
of society and its social life
NormsSocial rules and guidelines that prescribe appropriate behavior in particular situationsFolkways:• Routine conventions of
everyday lifeMores:• Central to functioning
of society and its social life
ValuesAbstract ideas about what a group believes to be good, right, and desirableThe bedrock of cultureHave emotional significance.• Freedom
ValuesAbstract ideas about what a group believes to be good, right, and desirableThe bedrock of cultureHave emotional significance.• Freedom
What are “American Values?”
Achievement
and success
Individualism
Freedom
Progress
Democracy
Equality
Achievement
and success
Individualism
Freedom
Progress
Democracy
Equality
Views of Another Culture
American culture
How the Americans see the French:-arrogant-flamboyant-hierarchical-emotional
How the French see the Americans:-naive-aggressive-unprincipled-workaholic
Norms and Values
French culture
Theory and empirical foundation is used in a general way to look at differences between cultures.5 dimensions
Power distanceIndividualism vs. collectivismUncertainty avoidanceMasculinity vs. femininityST vs. LT orientation
ButDon’t assume everyone in a country has the same norms and values
Hofstede’s Work-Related Values
U.S.
China
Determinants of Culture
Education
Economic Philosophy
PoliticalPhilosophy
Religion
Language
SocialStructure
Culture:Norms and
Value Systems
Culture:Norms and
Value Systems
Religion Distribution
4%5%
20%
18%
43%
10%
Christian(1.2 Billion)
Islam(1 Billion)
Hindu(500 Million)
Buddhist(250 Million)
Confucian(150 Million)
Other/Nonreligious
Impact of Religion on Business
BuddhismLittle emphasis on entrepreneurial behavior
Christianity“Protestant Work Ethic” and “The Spirit of Capitalism”
ConfucianismLoyalty, reciprocal obligations, and honesty in dealings
HinduismAsceticism may have an impact (spiritual achievements)
Caste system plays a role
IslamFavors market-based systems (free enterprise)No payment or receipt of interest
LanguageAllows people to communicateStructures the way the world is perceivedDirects attention to certain features of the world rather than others Helps define cultureCreates separatist tendencies?
Canada, Belgium, Spain, Cyprus
Non-verbal (93% of communication)Eyebrows, fingers/thumbs, hand gestures, feet, personal space, body gestures (ok, thumbs up)
Allows people to communicateStructures the way the world is perceivedDirects attention to certain features of the world rather than others Helps define cultureCreates separatist tendencies?
Canada, Belgium, Spain, Cyprus
Non-verbal (93% of communication)Eyebrows, fingers/thumbs, hand gestures, feet, personal space, body gestures (ok, thumbs up)
Education
Formal education supplements family role
in teaching valuesand norms
Focus on facts of socialand political nature
of society
Obligations ofcitizenship
For int’l business, it is adeterminant of nationalcompetitive advantage
(post-war Japan)
Medium to learnlanguage, conceptual,
and math skills
Value of personalachievement and
competition
Democracy and TotalitarianismDemocracy and Totalitarianism
DemocracyGovernment by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.
DemocracyGovernment by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.
TotalitarianismGovernment in which one person or political party exercises absolute control over all spheres of human life and opposing political parties are prohibited.
TotalitarianismGovernment in which one person or political party exercises absolute control over all spheres of human life and opposing political parties are prohibited.
Political Philosophy (System)
Economic Philosophy (System)
Market EconomyAll productive activities are privately owned
Command EconomyGoods and services produced, their quantity, and prices are determined by the government
Mixed EconomyParts of the economy are left to private ownership and free market mechanisms while other sectors are state-owned and have government planning
State-Directed EconomyThe state plays a significant role through its “industrial policy” and setting national goals
Market EconomyAll productive activities are privately owned
Command EconomyGoods and services produced, their quantity, and prices are determined by the government
Mixed EconomyParts of the economy are left to private ownership and free market mechanisms while other sectors are state-owned and have government planning
State-Directed EconomyThe state plays a significant role through its “industrial policy” and setting national goals
Social Structure
Individuals vs. GroupsShared sense of identificationDegree to which group is viewed as the primary means of social organizationCooperation – MIT Study
Social StratificationSocial strataSocial mobilityClass system
Individuals vs. GroupsShared sense of identificationDegree to which group is viewed as the primary means of social organizationCooperation – MIT Study
Social StratificationSocial strataSocial mobilityClass system
Cultural Change
Americanization/Westernization
Global brands
• McDonald’s in China
• Levi’s in India
• Sony Walkman in South Africa
• MTV everywhere
Countertrends• Quebec, Russia, Islamic
fundamentalism
Americanization/Westernization
Global brands
• McDonald’s in China
• Levi’s in India
• Sony Walkman in South Africa
• MTV everywhere
Countertrends• Quebec, Russia, Islamic
fundamentalism
Culture - Case
Euro Disney: The First 100 Days” – HBS 9-693-013
Planning processThe role of culture• Differences in culture vs. attitude about
culture
Adapting versus adopting – what is core?
Euro Disney: The First 100 Days” – HBS 9-693-013
Planning processThe role of culture• Differences in culture vs. attitude about
culture
Adapting versus adopting – what is core?
Foreign Exchange & Strategy
“Note on Operating Exposure to Exchange-Rate Changes”
Luehrman – HBS 9-288-018
Example: Losses at JAL Airlines (Hill)Case: Japan’s Automakers Face Endaka – HBS 9-796-030
Impact on business model - What they sell, how they sell, where they manufacture, manufacturing processJapanese response vs. U.S. response
“Note on Operating Exposure to Exchange-Rate Changes”
Luehrman – HBS 9-288-018
Example: Losses at JAL Airlines (Hill)Case: Japan’s Automakers Face Endaka – HBS 9-796-030
Impact on business model - What they sell, how they sell, where they manufacture, manufacturing processJapanese response vs. U.S. response
Foreign Exchange Markets
The FOREX market provides the physical and institutional structure through which the money of one country is exchanged for that of another countryA foreign exchange transaction is an agreement between a buyer and a seller that a fixed amount of one currency will be delivered for some other currency at a specified rate
The FOREX market provides the physical and institutional structure through which the money of one country is exchanged for that of another countryA foreign exchange transaction is an agreement between a buyer and a seller that a fixed amount of one currency will be delivered for some other currency at a specified rate
There are six main characteristics of the FOREX markets which will be discussed
The geographic extentThe three main functionsThe market’s participantsIts daily transaction volumeTypes of transactions including spot, forward and swapsMethods of stating exchange rates, quotations, and changes in exchange rates
There are six main characteristics of the FOREX markets which will be discussed
The geographic extentThe three main functionsThe market’s participantsIts daily transaction volumeTypes of transactions including spot, forward and swapsMethods of stating exchange rates, quotations, and changes in exchange rates
Foreign Exchange Markets
Geographically, the FOREX market spans the globe with prices moving and currencies trading on a 24 hour basisMajor exchanges are located in Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo in the EastThen it moves to Bahrain, and London for the European areaAnd on to New York, San Francisco and Sydney
Geographically, the FOREX market spans the globe with prices moving and currencies trading on a 24 hour basisMajor exchanges are located in Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo in the EastThen it moves to Bahrain, and London for the European areaAnd on to New York, San Francisco and Sydney
FOREX Market Geography
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Measuring FOREX Market Activity: Average Electronic Conversations Per HourMeasuring FOREX Market Activity: Average Electronic Conversations Per Hour
Greenwich Mean Time
Tokyoopens
Asiaclosing
10 AMIn Tokyo
Afternoonin America
Londonclosing
6 pmIn NY
Americasopen
Europeopening
LunchIn Tokyo
FOREX Market Geography
The FOREX market is the mechanism by which participants transfer purchasing power between countries, obtains or provides credit for international trade, and minimizes exposure to exchange rate risk
Transferring of purchasing power is necessary because international trade and capital transactions normally involve parties in countries with different currencies yet each party wishes to transact in their own currency
FOREX Market Functions
Because the movement of goods between countries takes time, inventory in transit must be financed. The FOREX market provides a source of credit via specialized instruments such as letters of creditThe FOREX market provides “hedging” facilities for transferring foreign exchange risk to someone else more willing to carry that risk
Because the movement of goods between countries takes time, inventory in transit must be financed. The FOREX market provides a source of credit via specialized instruments such as letters of creditThe FOREX market provides “hedging” facilities for transferring foreign exchange risk to someone else more willing to carry that risk
FOREX Market Functions
The FOREX market consists of two tiers, the interbank or wholesale market, and the client or retail marketFive broad categories of participants operate within these two tiers
Bank and non bank foreign exchange dealersIndividuals and firms conducting commercial or investment transactionsSpeculators and arbitragersCentral banks and treasuriesForeign exchange brokers
The FOREX market consists of two tiers, the interbank or wholesale market, and the client or retail marketFive broad categories of participants operate within these two tiers
Bank and non bank foreign exchange dealersIndividuals and firms conducting commercial or investment transactionsSpeculators and arbitragersCentral banks and treasuriesForeign exchange brokers
FOREX Market Participants
These participants profit from buying currencies at a bid price and then reselling them at an offer or ask priceCompetition among dealers narrows the spread between the bid and offer rate contributing to the market’s efficiencyDealers on behalf of large international banks often act as market makers, often willing to stand in and buy or sell these currencies without having a counterpart with which to unload the “inventory”
These participants profit from buying currencies at a bid price and then reselling them at an offer or ask priceCompetition among dealers narrows the spread between the bid and offer rate contributing to the market’s efficiencyDealers on behalf of large international banks often act as market makers, often willing to stand in and buy or sell these currencies without having a counterpart with which to unload the “inventory”
Bid price: The price a buyer is willing to pay.Offer (Ask price): the price a seller is willing to receive.Bid-Ask spread: The amount that the ask price exceeds the bid.Market maker: A broker-dealer willing to accept the risk of holding a particular currency in order to facilitate trading in that currency.
Bid price: The price a buyer is willing to pay.Offer (Ask price): the price a seller is willing to receive.Bid-Ask spread: The amount that the ask price exceeds the bid.Market maker: A broker-dealer willing to accept the risk of holding a particular currency in order to facilitate trading in that currency.
Bank/Non-Bank Dealers
They trade amongst other banks and dealers in order to keep their inventory levels at manageable levelsCurrency trading is profitable and often contributes between 10% - 20% of a banks’ average net incomeSmall- to medium-sized banks rarely act as market makers yet still participate in the interbank market
They trade amongst other banks and dealers in order to keep their inventory levels at manageable levelsCurrency trading is profitable and often contributes between 10% - 20% of a banks’ average net incomeSmall- to medium-sized banks rarely act as market makers yet still participate in the interbank market
Bank/Non-Bank Dealers
Importers, exporters, portfolio investors, MNEs, tourists and others use the FOREX market to facilitate execution of commercial or investment transactionsSome of these participants use the market to hedge foreign exchange rate risk
Importers, exporters, portfolio investors, MNEs, tourists and others use the FOREX market to facilitate execution of commercial or investment transactionsSome of these participants use the market to hedge foreign exchange rate risk
Commercial Investment
Speculators and arbitragers seek to profit from trading in the market itselfThey operate for their own interest, without need or obligation to serve clients or ensure a continuous marketSpeculators seek all their profit from exchange rate changesArbitragers try to profit from simultaneous differences in exchange rates in different marketsA large proportion of speculation and arbitrage is conducted on behalf of major banks by traders employed by those banks
Speculators and arbitragers seek to profit from trading in the market itselfThey operate for their own interest, without need or obligation to serve clients or ensure a continuous marketSpeculators seek all their profit from exchange rate changesArbitragers try to profit from simultaneous differences in exchange rates in different marketsA large proportion of speculation and arbitrage is conducted on behalf of major banks by traders employed by those banks
Speculators & Arbitragers
Central banks and treasuries use the market to acquire or spend their country’s currency reserves as well as to influence the price at which their own currency tradesThey may act to support the value of their currency because of their government’s policies or obligations or because of commitments entered through joint float agreements such as the European Monetary System (EMS)Consequently their motive is not to profit but rather influence the foreign exchange value of their currency in a manner that will benefit their interests
Central banks and treasuries use the market to acquire or spend their country’s currency reserves as well as to influence the price at which their own currency tradesThey may act to support the value of their currency because of their government’s policies or obligations or because of commitments entered through joint float agreements such as the European Monetary System (EMS)Consequently their motive is not to profit but rather influence the foreign exchange value of their currency in a manner that will benefit their interests
Central Banks & Treasuries
Foreign exchange brokers are agents who facilitate trading between dealers without themselves becoming principals in the transactionFor this service they charge a small commissionThey maintain instant access to hundreds of dealers worldwide via open lines and at times may maintain such lines with several banks, with separate lines for differing currencies, spot and forward rates
Foreign exchange brokers are agents who facilitate trading between dealers without themselves becoming principals in the transactionFor this service they charge a small commissionThey maintain instant access to hundreds of dealers worldwide via open lines and at times may maintain such lines with several banks, with separate lines for differing currencies, spot and forward rates
Foreign Exchange Brokers
Transactions within this market can be executed on a spot, forward, or swap basis
A spot transaction requires almost immediate delivery of foreign exchangeA forward transaction requires delivery of foreign exchange at some future dateA swap transaction is the simultaneous exchange of one foreign currency for another
Transactions within this market can be executed on a spot, forward, or swap basis
A spot transaction requires almost immediate delivery of foreign exchangeA forward transaction requires delivery of foreign exchange at some future dateA swap transaction is the simultaneous exchange of one foreign currency for another
Inter-Bank Market Transactions
A spot transaction in the interbank market is the purchase of foreign exchange, with delivery and payment between banks to take place, normally, on the second following business day
The settlement date is often referred to as the value dateThis is the date when most dollar transactions are settled through the computerized Clearing House Interbank Payment Systems (CHIPS) in New York
A spot transaction in the interbank market is the purchase of foreign exchange, with delivery and payment between banks to take place, normally, on the second following business day
The settlement date is often referred to as the value dateThis is the date when most dollar transactions are settled through the computerized Clearing House Interbank Payment Systems (CHIPS) in New York
Spot Transactions
This transaction requires delivery at a future value date of a specified amount of one currency for anotherThe exchange rate is agreed upon at the time of the transaction, but payment and delivery are delayedForward rates are contracts quoted for value dates of one, two, three, six, nine and twelve months
Terminology typically used is buying or selling forwardA contract to deliver dollars for euros in six months is both buying euros forward for dollars and selling dollars forward for euros
This transaction requires delivery at a future value date of a specified amount of one currency for anotherThe exchange rate is agreed upon at the time of the transaction, but payment and delivery are delayedForward rates are contracts quoted for value dates of one, two, three, six, nine and twelve months
Terminology typically used is buying or selling forwardA contract to deliver dollars for euros in six months is both buying euros forward for dollars and selling dollars forward for euros
Outright Forward Transactions
A swap transaction in the interbank market is the simultaneous purchase and sale of a given amount of foreign exchange for two different value datesBoth purchase and sale are conducted with the same counterpartA common type of swap is a spot against forward
The dealer buys a currency in the spot market and simultaneously sells the same amount back to the same bank in the forward marketSince this transaction occurs at the same time and with the same counterpart, the dealer incurs no exchange rate exposure
A swap transaction in the interbank market is the simultaneous purchase and sale of a given amount of foreign exchange for two different value datesBoth purchase and sale are conducted with the same counterpartA common type of swap is a spot against forward
The dealer buys a currency in the spot market and simultaneously sells the same amount back to the same bank in the forward marketSince this transaction occurs at the same time and with the same counterpart, the dealer incurs no exchange rate exposure
Swap Transactions
Forward-forward swaps – A dealer sells £20,000 forward for dollars for delivery in two months at $1.6870/£ and simultaneously buys £20,000 forward for delivery in three months at $1.6820/£
The difference between the buying and selling price is equivalent to the interest rate differentialThus a swap can be viewed as a technique for borrowing another currency on a fully collateralized basis
Forward-forward swaps – A dealer sells £20,000 forward for dollars for delivery in two months at $1.6870/£ and simultaneously buys £20,000 forward for delivery in three months at $1.6820/£
The difference between the buying and selling price is equivalent to the interest rate differentialThus a swap can be viewed as a technique for borrowing another currency on a fully collateralized basis
Swap Transactions
Non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) – NDFs possess the same characteristics as traditional forward contracts except that they are settled only in US dollars and the foreign currency being sold or bought forward is not delivered
The dollar-settlement feature reflects the fact that NDFs are contracted offshore and are beyond the reach and regulatory frameworks of the home country governmentsPricing of NDFs reflects basic interest rate differentials
Non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) – NDFs possess the same characteristics as traditional forward contracts except that they are settled only in US dollars and the foreign currency being sold or bought forward is not delivered
The dollar-settlement feature reflects the fact that NDFs are contracted offshore and are beyond the reach and regulatory frameworks of the home country governmentsPricing of NDFs reflects basic interest rate differentials
Swap Transactions
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimates that daily global net turnover in traditional FOREX market activity to be US$1,210 billion in April 2001
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimates that daily global net turnover in traditional FOREX market activity to be US$1,210 billion in April 2001
FOREX Market Size
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Spot
Forwards
Swaps
Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (daily averages in April, billions of US dollars)Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (daily averages in April, billions of US dollars)
Source: Bank for International Settlements, “Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in April 2001,” October 2001, www.bis.org. Next survey planned for April 2004.
FOREX Market Size
Two of the three categories fell between 1998 and 2001 with spot market daily turnover falling the most, from $568 billion in 1998 to $387 billion in 2001Forward transactions increased slightly from $128 billion in 1998 to $131 billion in 2001Swaps fell to $656 billion in 2001 from $734 billion in 1998
BIS attributes the introduction of the Euro, the growing share of electronic broking in the spot market and consolidation in banking as explanations for the reduction
Two of the three categories fell between 1998 and 2001 with spot market daily turnover falling the most, from $568 billion in 1998 to $387 billion in 2001Forward transactions increased slightly from $128 billion in 1998 to $131 billion in 2001Swaps fell to $656 billion in 2001 from $734 billion in 1998
BIS attributes the introduction of the Euro, the growing share of electronic broking in the spot market and consolidation in banking as explanations for the reduction
FOREX Market Size
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Singapore
Germany
Geographic Distribution of Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (daily averages in April, billions of US dollars)Geographic Distribution of Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (daily averages in April, billions of US dollars)
Source: Bank for International Settlements, “Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in April 2001,” October 2001, www.bis.org. Next survey planned for April 2004.
FOREX Market Size
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
US dollar
euro
Deutshemark
French franc
EMS currencies
Japanese yen
Pound sterling
Swiss franc
Currency Distribution of Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (percentage shares of average daily turnover in April)Currency Distribution of Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (percentage shares of average daily turnover in April)
Source: Bank for International Settlements, “Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in April 2001,” October 2001, www.bis.org. Next survey planned for April 2004.
FOREX Market Size
A foreign exchange quote is a statement of willingness to buy or sell at an announced rate
In the retail market (newspapers and exchange booths), quotes are often given as the home currency price of the foreign currency
Interbank quotes – professionals state forex quotes in one of two ways
The foreign currency price of one dollar• Sfr1.6000/$, read as 1.600 Swiss francs per
dollar• European quote
The dollar price of a unit of foreign currency
• $0.6250/Sfr, read as 0.625 dollars per Swiss franc
• American quote
A foreign exchange quote is a statement of willingness to buy or sell at an announced rate
In the retail market (newspapers and exchange booths), quotes are often given as the home currency price of the foreign currency
Interbank quotes – professionals state forex quotes in one of two ways
The foreign currency price of one dollar• Sfr1.6000/$, read as 1.600 Swiss francs per
dollar• European quote
The dollar price of a unit of foreign currency
• $0.6250/Sfr, read as 0.625 dollars per Swiss franc
• American quote
FOREX Rates & Quotes
The former quote is considered the “European quote” and the latter is the “American quote”Almost all European currencies, except two, are quoted the European way
The Pound Sterling and the Euro are the exceptionsAdditionally, Australian and New Zealand dollars are also quoted in American terms
The former quote is considered the “European quote” and the latter is the “American quote”Almost all European currencies, except two, are quoted the European way
The Pound Sterling and the Euro are the exceptionsAdditionally, Australian and New Zealand dollars are also quoted in American terms
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Bid and Ask QuotationsInterbank quotes are given as a bid and ask
• The bid is the price at which a dealer will buy another currency
• The ask or offer is the price at which a dealer will sell another currency
– Example: ¥118.27 - ¥118.37/$ is the bid/ask for Japanese yen
– The bank will buy yen at ¥118.27 per dollar and sell yen at ¥118.37 per dollar making profit on the spread
Bid and Ask QuotationsInterbank quotes are given as a bid and ask
• The bid is the price at which a dealer will buy another currency
• The ask or offer is the price at which a dealer will sell another currency
– Example: ¥118.27 - ¥118.37/$ is the bid/ask for Japanese yen
– The bank will buy yen at ¥118.27 per dollar and sell yen at ¥118.37 per dollar making profit on the spread
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Expressing Forward Quotations on a Points Basis
The previously mentioned rates for yen were considered outright quotesForward quotes are different and typically quoted in terms of pointsA point is the last digit of a quotation, with convention dictating the number of digits to the right of the decimal
• Hence a point is equal to 0.0001 of most currencies
Expressing Forward Quotations on a Points Basis
The previously mentioned rates for yen were considered outright quotesForward quotes are different and typically quoted in terms of pointsA point is the last digit of a quotation, with convention dictating the number of digits to the right of the decimal
• Hence a point is equal to 0.0001 of most currencies
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Expressing Forward Quotations on a Points Basis
The yen is quoted only to two decimal pointsA forward quotation is not a foreign exchange rate, rather the difference between the spot and forward ratesExample:
Expressing Forward Quotations on a Points Basis
The yen is quoted only to two decimal pointsA forward quotation is not a foreign exchange rate, rather the difference between the spot and forward ratesExample: Bid Ask
Outright spot: ¥118.27 ¥118.37
Outright forward: ¥116.84 ¥116.97
Plus points (3 months) -1.43 -1.40
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Forward Quotations in Percentage Terms
Forward quotations may also be expressed as the percent-per-annum deviation from the spot rate
• This is similar to the forward discount or premium calculated earlier
The important thing to remember is which currency is being used as the home or base currency
• For indirect quotes (i.e. quote expressed in foreign currency terms), the formula is
Forward Quotations in Percentage Terms
Forward quotations may also be expressed as the percent-per-annum deviation from the spot rate
• This is similar to the forward discount or premium calculated earlier
The important thing to remember is which currency is being used as the home or base currency
• For indirect quotes (i.e. quote expressed in foreign currency terms), the formula is
100 x days
360 x
Foward
Foward -Spot f FC
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Forward Quotations in Percentage Terms• For direct quotes (i.e. quote expressed in home
currency terms), the formula is
Forward Quotations in Percentage Terms• For direct quotes (i.e. quote expressed in home
currency terms), the formula is
100 x days
360 x
Spot
Spot - Forward f H
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Forward Quotations in Percentage TermsExample: Indirect quote
Example: Direct quote
Forward Quotations in Percentage TermsExample: Indirect quote
Example: Direct quote
p.a. 2.32% 100 x 90
360 x
105.04
105.04 - 105.65 f ¥
p.a. 2.32% 100 x 90
360 x
50.00946521
50.00946521-30.00952018 f $
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Direct and Indirect QuotesA direct quote is a home currency price of a unit of a foreign currency
• Sfr1.6000/$ is a direct quote in Switzerland
• $0.625/Sfr is a direct quote in the US
An indirect quote is a foreign currency price in a unit of the home currency
• Sfr1.600/$ is an indirect quote in the US, • $0.625/Sfr is a direct quote in the US and
an indirect quote in Switzerland
Direct and Indirect QuotesA direct quote is a home currency price of a unit of a foreign currency
• Sfr1.6000/$ is a direct quote in Switzerland
• $0.625/Sfr is a direct quote in the US
An indirect quote is a foreign currency price in a unit of the home currency
• Sfr1.600/$ is an indirect quote in the US, • $0.625/Sfr is a direct quote in the US and
an indirect quote in Switzerland
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Cross RatesMany currencies pairs are inactively traded, so their exchange rate is determined through their relationship to a widely traded third currencyExample: A Mexican importer needs Japanese yen to pay for purchases in Tokyo. Both the Mexican peso (Ps) and Japanese yen (¥) are quoted in US dollars
• Assume the following quotes:
Cross RatesMany currencies pairs are inactively traded, so their exchange rate is determined through their relationship to a widely traded third currencyExample: A Mexican importer needs Japanese yen to pay for purchases in Tokyo. Both the Mexican peso (Ps) and Japanese yen (¥) are quoted in US dollars
• Assume the following quotes:
Japanese yen ¥121.13/$
Mexican peso Ps9.190/$
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Cross RatesThe Mexican importer can buy one US dollar for Ps9.190 and with that dollar buy ¥121.13; the cross rate would be
Cross RatesThe Mexican importer can buy one US dollar for Ps9.190 and with that dollar buy ¥121.13; the cross rate would be
SS
P/1806.13 $/190.9P
121.13/$
dollar pesos/USMexican
dollar yen/US Japanes
¥¥
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Intermarket ArbitrageCross rates can be used to check on opportunities for intermarket arbitrageExample: Assume the following exchange rates are quoted
Intermarket ArbitrageCross rates can be used to check on opportunities for intermarket arbitrageExample: Assume the following exchange rates are quoted
Citibank $0.9045/€
Barclays Bank $1.4443/£
Dresdner Bank €1.6200/£
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Intermarket ArbitrageThe cross rate between Citibank and Barclays is
• This cross rate is not the same as Dresdner’s rate quote of €1.5800/£, so an opportunity exists for risk-less profit
Intermarket ArbitrageThe cross rate between Citibank and Barclays is
• This cross rate is not the same as Dresdner’s rate quote of €1.5800/£, so an opportunity exists for risk-less profit
1.5968/ $0.9045/
$1.4443/ £
£ €
€
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Citibank
Dresdner Bank Barclays Bank
End with $1,014,533 Start with $1,000,000
(3) Sell £692,377 to Dresdner Bank at €1.6200/£(4) Receive €1,121,651
(1) Sell $1,000,000 to Barclays Bank at $1.4443/£
(2) Receive £692,377(5) Sell €1,121,651 to Citibank at $0.9045/€
(6) Receive $1,014,533
FOREX Rates & Quotes
Managing Global Expansion
“Managing Global Expansion: A Conceptual Framework”
Gupta & Govindarajan – Business Horizons, March/April 2000, 45-54 (Reprint BH043) Globalization imperativesDegree of local adaptationLearning potentialEntry barriersCompetitive intensity
ExportingShip to another country for sale or exchangeAdvantages:
Avoid cost of establishing manufacturing operationsHelp achieve experience curve and location economies
Sony TVs, Matsushita VCRs
Disadvantages:May compete with low-cost location manufacturersPossible high transportation costsTariff barriersPossible lack of control over marketing reps
Example: Heineken Beer (Hill)
Improving Export Performance
Information fromgovernment sources
Export ManagementCompanies
Exportstrategies
Export specialists who act as the export management department or international department for client firms
Bundesregierung.deMiti.go.jpExim.govIta.doc.gov
Top management commitmentStart smallEnter to learn, add to growBuild relationshipsHire locals
An Interesting Fact
Although the U.S. is the largest single market, exporting does not seem to come naturally to U.S. companies. In the U.S., exports account for 5.4% of GNP compared to 26% in Germany, 25% in Canada, and 10.5% in Japan (not most recent statistics).
Advanced Biomedical Devices, Inc.Assessment of Readiness to Export
Team In-Class Exercise (50 points)•Your team has been “hired” to evaluate ABD’s readiness to export. •Drawing on information from the case, your knowledge of factors
affecting global expansion, and what you learn from the CORE
diagnostic tool, prepare a two-page (double-spaced) memo with
your team’s assessment and recommendations. •You may structure the memo however you see fit. •Attach the CORE output as supporting documentation.•The memo is due in two hours. The break-out rooms are available.
globalEDGE – Core Exercise
Licensing
Licensor grants rights to intangible property to another entity for a specified period of time in returnAdvantages:
Reduces development costs and risks of establishing foreign enterprise
• Lack capital for venture; Unfamiliar/volatile market
Overcomes restrictive investment barriersOthers can develop business applications of intangible property
Disadvantages:Lack of controlCross-border licensing may be difficultCreating a competitor
Euro-Disney Japan
Franchising
A franchiser sells intangible property and provides guidelines for operating the business.Advantages:
Reduces costs and risk of establishing enterprise
Disadvantages:May prohibit movement of profits from one country to support operations in another countryQuality control
Joint Ventures
Advantages:Benefit from local partner’s knowledgeShared costs/risks with partnerReduced political risk
Disadvantages:Risk giving control of technology to partnerMay not realize experience curve or location economiesShared ownership can lead to conflict
Strategic Alliances
“Collaborate with your Competitors & Win”
Hamel, Doz & Prahalad – HBR Reprint 89104 Learning
Pro:Quick to executePreempt competitorsPossibly less risky
Con:Often produce disappointing results
• Overpay for firm• Too optimistic about
value creation (hubris)• Culture clash• Problems with
proposed synergies
Establishing a Wholly Owned Subsidiary
Pro:Can build subsidiary it wantsEasy to establish operating routines
Con:Slow to establishRiskyPreemption by aggressive competitors
Acquisition Greenfield
Selecting an Entry Mode
TechnologicalKnow-How
ManagementKnow-How
Wholly owned subsidiary unless1. Venture is structured to reduce risk of loss of technology2. Technology advantage transitory
Then licensing or joint venture OK Franchising, subsidiaries (wholly owned or joint venture)
Pressure forCost
Reduction
Combination of exporting and wholly owned subsidiary
Entry ModeBasis for Competition
Which Foreign Markets?
Market potentialMarket size (e.g., China vs. Taiwan)DemandCosts: Customer acquisition, infrastructureDistance:•Cultural, administrative,
geographic, economic (Comparisons – Wal-Mart in Mexico)
Learning potentialSophisticated/demanding customers?Pace of technology?
Wal-Mart de Mexico
Sam’s Club, Mexico City, 1991Per capita income $2,000
Monterrey 1993 (Laredo)Distribution problems (no NAFTA yet)Ice skates, riding mowers, leaf blowers, fishing
1994 (post NAFTA)Labels on 80,000 productsDecember: Peso crisis, 40% depreciation
By mid-1997, 373 of 1000 non-US storesDistribution centerLocal sourcing (Sony Wega $1600,$600); scaleJoint venture w/ Cifra (WalMex)
Timing of Entry
First-mover advantage.Preempt rivals and capture demandBuild sales volumeMove down experience curve before rivals and achieve cost advantageCreate switching costs
Disadvantages:First mover disadvantage - pioneering costsChanges in government policy
Costs early entrant bears that later
entrant can avoid.
Global Expansion - Cases
Citibank: Launching the Credit Card in Asia Pacific (A) - HBS 9-595-026
Preempting rivals and capturing demand, Market entry analysis, market evaluation, target market selection, product positioning issues
Xerox and Fuji Xerox – HBS 9-391-156
Importance of structural flexibility, autonomy/integration tradeoff, drivers of collaboration, multi-market contact
Where to manufacture?
“How to Integrate Work and Deepen Expertise”
Leonard-Barton, Bowen, Clark, Holloway, & Wheelwright – HBR Reprint 94502
Key factorsCountry: Factor costs, CAGE, location externalities, infrastructureTechnological: Economies of scale, MES, manufacturing flexibilityProduct: Value to weight ratio, universality of needs
Technological Factors
Flexible manufacturing technology Available Not Available
Minimum efficient scale High LowFixed costs High Low
Product Factors
Serves universal needs Yes NoValue-to-weight ratio High Low
Country Factors
Differences in factor costs Substantial Few
Substantial Few
Trade barriers Few Many
Differences in political economyDifferences in culture Substantial Few
Concentrated Decentralized
Favored Manufactured Strategy
Location Strategy
The Acer Group’s China Manufacturing Decision – HBS 99M009
Decentralized structure
Role of core competencies
Key considerations• Costs, market presence, infrastructure,
materials management, expats (safety, desire), labor laws, time frame, environment
PEST framework - environment
The Acer Group’s China Manufacturing Decision – HBS 99M009
Decentralized structure
Role of core competencies
Key considerations• Costs, market presence, infrastructure,
materials management, expats (safety, desire), labor laws, time frame, environment
PEST framework - environment
Manufacturing Location - Case
“The Lure of Global Branding”
Aaker and Joachimsthaler – HBR Reprint 99601
AdvantagesDisadvantagesWhen is it possible?Developing a global brandManaging a global brand
Global Branding
EMDICO (A) – HBS 9-597-029
Re-launching a global brand in an emerging market
Challenges faced by a late entrant
Impact of cultural and religious considerations on market demand and marketing strategy
Marketing program calculations
Global Branding - Case
“The Right Way to Manage Expats”
Black & Gregersen – HBR Reprint 99201
Benefits: Enhance management
experience, knowledge transfer, best
allocation of people, reducing turnover
Constraints: willingness to travel/live
abroad, costs, achieving equity (pay,
taxes, cost of living), impact on career
Developing an Expatriate Policy
Expatriate Policy - Case
Colgate-Palmolive: Managing International Careers – HBS 9-394-184
Leader in attention and carePre-departure, moving, financialNeeds of expat AND familyCompare C-P’s policy to your company’s policyContinuous improvementPre-departure concerns, spouse assistanceSurveys to review and reviseEffective but costlyFocus on selection