International Study for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience

-towards integrating disaster risk reduction and sustainable development-

Toshio Koike Professor, The University of Tokyo

Director, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)

Sustainable Development

Management of Disaster & Environmental Risks Preventing Future Risk

Reducing Current Risk

Building Resilience

Population Increase, Decrease, Aging

Economy Poverty, Inequity, Globalization

Pollution

Destabilized Governance

Disorganized Urbanization

Human-induced Issues

Land Use Deforestation, Desertification

Climate Change Biodiversity

Food

Energy Health

Water Security

Science and Technology

Disaster

Damage

Development

Inherent Risk to Development

Hazard

inter-disciplinary & trans-disciplinary

UN-ISDR

Scientific and Technical Advisory Group (STAG) Engagement Research and Development

UN Agencies

Donors

HFA Monitor (Indices)

strengthen the evidence base in support of the implementation and

monitoring of this framework

promote scientific research into risk patterns and trends and the causes and effects of disaster risk in society

use post-disaster reviews as opportunities to learn and

enhance public policy

strengthen a coordination function among existing

international organizations, networks, or research

frameworks

ICSU

ISSC IRDR

(Program) Post Disaster

Reviews Global Assessment

Report (GAR)

National and Regional Institutions

National Disaster Reduction Body ( National Platform / National Disaster Management Organization)

Engineers Geo-physicists

Socio-Economists

Health specialists

Politicians Administrators

Academia, NGOs

Private sectors

New Approach to Empower National Platforms and their Decision-making on DRR

Global Platform for DRR

Thematic Platforms GEM, GFMC, GRF Davos, GDN, GRIP, IFI, ICL, IPRED,

IRP, PEDRR, Knowledge & Education, UN-SPIDER

System for Inter-linkage Data Opportunity

inter-disciplinary & trans-disciplinary

UN-ISDR

Scientific and Technical Advisory Group (STAG) Engagement Research and Development

UN Agencies

Donors

HFA Monitor (Indices)

strengthen the evidence base in support of the implementation and

monitoring of this framework

promote scientific research into risk patterns and trends and the causes and effects of disaster risk in society

use post-disaster reviews as opportunities to learn and

enhance public policy

strengthen a coordination function among existing

international organizations, networks, or research

frameworks

ICSU

ISSC IRDR

(Program) Post Disaster

Reviews Global Assessment

Report (GAR)

National and Regional Institutions

National Disaster Reduction Body ( National Platform / National Disaster Management Organization)

Engineers Geo-physicists

Socio-Economists

Health specialists

Politicians Administrators

Academia, NGOs

Private sectors

New Approach to Empower National Platforms and their Decision-making on DRR

Global Platform for DRR

Thematic Platforms GEM, GFMC, GRF Davos, GDN, GRIP, IFI, ICL, IPRED,

IRP, PEDRR, Knowledge & Education, UN-SPIDER

System for Inter-linkage Data Opportunity

inter-disciplinary & trans-disciplinary

5

DB

DB

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

A1:高度成長社会

A2：多元化型

B1:持続発展型

B2：地域共存型

DB

DB

DB

DB

DB 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

A1:高度成長社会

A2：多元化型

B1:持続発展型

B2：地域共存型

DB

DB 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

A1:高度成長社会

A2：多元化型

B1:持続発展型

B2：地域共存型

DB

DB

DB

Meteorology

Ecosystem

Agriculture

Hydrology

Land Use

Climatology

Health

农业

เกษตรกรร

ม

농업

Where is data? How to access?

Technical Terms among

Different Disciplines

Quality? Reliability?

10

10

10

10

10

10

9

10

11

12

13

14

10

10

15

16

1010 10 10 1010 10 10

Dat

a Si

ze, By

tes

2001

TeraFLOPSGigaFLOPS PetaFLOPS

109 1410 11 12 13 15 16 17 18

ExaFLOPS

Real Demonstrated Performance doing useful Science

10Compute Speed, FLOPS

2020

Computational Modeling in Two Stages;Computational Modeling in Two Stages;Driving Evolution & Enabling RevolutionDriving Evolution & Enabling Revolution

EvolutionaryEvolutionary

RevolutionaryRevolutionary

2010

2°x 2° resolution;synoptic scale s

2005

.25°x .25° resolution;hurricanes, storm front s

.25°x .25° resolution;add cloud, chemistry,& radiation effects

Fully intera ctive (biol ogy,chemistry, physic s)ensemble simulations inan operational mode

2015

Nanotechnology

InformationPower Grid

HeterogeneousCluster

HomogeneousCluster

Interact ivephysics, biology,chemistry;assimilat ion ofsatelli te data

6

Data Integration and Analysis System

To create knowledge enabling us to reduce disaster risk, solve the Earth environment problems, and generate socio- economic benefits.

a legacy for Japan's contributions to GEOSS

UN-ISDR

Scientific and Technical Advisory Group (STAG) Engagement Research and Development

UN Agencies

Donors

HFA Monitor (Indices)

strengthen the evidence base in support of the implementation and

monitoring of this framework

promote scientific research into risk patterns and trends and the causes and effects of disaster risk in society

use post-disaster reviews as opportunities to learn and

enhance public policy

strengthen a coordination function among existing

international organizations, networks, or research

frameworks

ICSU

ISSC IRDR

(Program) Post Disaster

Reviews Global Assessment

Report (GAR)

National and Regional Institutions

National Disaster Reduction Body ( National Platform / National Disaster Management Organization)

Engineers Geo-physicists

Socio-Economists

Health specialists

Politicians Administrators

Academia, NGOs

Private sectors

New Approach to Empower National Platforms and their Decision-making on DRR

Global Platform for DRR

Thematic Platforms GEM, GFMC, GRF Davos, GDN, GRIP, IFI, ICL, IPRED,

IRP, PEDRR, Knowledge & Education, UN-SPIDER

System for Inter-linkage Data Opportunity

inter-disciplinary & trans-disciplinary

Water is a Key bridging between climate processes and societal benefits.

(Richard H. Moss, et al., Nature, 2010)

Weather Prediction

Models

Water Cycle Integrator

In-situ Data

Rainfall River Flow

Soil Moisture

Satellite

MW

Vis. IR

Gravity

Ground Water

Seasonal Prediction Climate

Prediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction

Water Quality

Evapo- transpiration

Soil Moisture

Ground Water

IWRM

Climate Change Adaptation

Val.

Data Assimilation

Snow Water Cycle

Model

Rain fall

River Flow

Weather Prediction

Models

Water Cycle Integrator

In-situ Data

Rainfall River Flow

Soil Moisture

Satellite

MW

Vis. IR

Gravity

Ground Water

Seasonal Prediction Climate

Prediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction

Water Quality

Evapo- transpiration

Soil Moisture

Ground Water

IWRM

Climate Change Adaptation

Val.

Data Assimilation

Snow Water Cycle

Model

Rain fall

River Flow

River Basin Management Index

Organism

Agriculture Support

Urban Environment Conservation

Loading Unit

Agricultural Info.

Famer’s Needs

Biodiversity Data

In-situ Data

Ground Elevation

Sewage

Crop Model

Urban Water Model

socio-economic & recognition information

Weather Prediction

Models

Water Cycle Integrator

In-situ Data

Rainfall River Flow

Soil Moisture

Satellite

MW

Vis. IR

Gravity

Ground Water

Seasonal Prediction Climate

Prediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction

Water Quality

Evapo- transpiration

Soil Moisture

Ground Water

IWRM

Climate Change Adaptation

Val.

Data Assimilation

Snow Water Cycle

Model

Rain fall

River Flow

River Basin Management Index

Organism

Agriculture Support

Urban Environment Conservation

Loading Unit

Agricultural Info.

Famer’s Needs

Biodiversity Data

In-situ Data

Ground Elevation

Sewage

Crop Model

Urban Water Model

socio-economic & recognition information

0

100

200

300

400

500

00.20.40.60.8

11.2

9/17 9/17 9/18

Wat

er d

epth

*(m

)

EC (μS/cm)

0:00 12:00 0:00

Water depth

EC

Integration of River-Sewage-Public Health in Hue, Viet Nam

risks of infection from exposure to pathogens

inundation affected by river flood and sea tide.

water quality: stagnant or diluted by river water.

Stakeholder Meeting for Co-design

Weather Prediction

Models

Water Cycle Integrator

In-situ Data

Rainfall River Flow

Soil Moisture

Satellite

MW

Vis. IR

Gravity

Ground Water

Seasonal Prediction Climate

Prediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction

Water Quality

Evapo- transpiration

Soil Moisture

Ground Water

IWRM

Climate Change Adaptation

Val.

Data Assimilation

Snow Water Cycle

Model

Rain fall

River Flow

River Basin Management Index

Organism

Agriculture Support

Urban Environment Conservation

Loading Unit

Agricultural Info.

Famer’s Needs

Biodiversity Data

In-situ Data

Ground Elevation

Sewage

Crop Model

Urban Water Model

socio-economic & recognition information

Water-Climate-Agriculture Workbench in Cambodia

Real-time Rain Gauge Satellite Data Correction Wide Data Dissemination Stakeholder Meeting

Holistic View of Water-Climate-Agriculture Problems

Nation-wide Daily Soil Moisture from Satellite

Famers’ Needs & Experiences

OJT for Local Practitioners

Water Cycle-Rice Production Coupled Model

Rice Production Monitoring Local Information Climate Change Analysis Tools

Weather Prediction

Models

Water Cycle Integrator

In-situ Data

Rainfall River Flow

Soil Moisture

Satellite

MW

Vis. IR

Gravity

Ground Water

Seasonal Prediction Climate

Prediction

Evaluation & Bias Correction

Water Quality

Evapo- transpiration

Soil Moisture

Ground Water

IWRM

Climate Change Adaptation

Val.

Data Assimilation

Snow Water Cycle

Model

Rain fall

River Flow

River Basin Management Index

Organism

Agriculture Support

Urban Environment Conservation

Loading Unit

Agricultural Info.

Famer’s Needs

Biodiversity Data

In-situ Data

Ground Elevation

Sewage

Crop Model

Urban Water Model

socio-economic & recognition information

4. Develop economic models to reproduce actual economic parameters.

Economic simulation

1. Develop of flood models to reproduce actual flood damage.

2. Demonstrate counter measure effects for reducing damage.

Flood simulation

3. Translate flood model outputs into economic model inputs

5. Simulate effect of the counter measures on economy and society with several scenarios.

How much investment for disaster damage reduction?

(Catchment-based Macro scale Floodplain model, Yamazaki, 2012)

(Disaster Risk Reduction investment Accounts for Development, Yokomatsu, 2013)

middle lower

Impact on Economic Growth (GDP)

Effects of Construction of LEVEE as Disaster Prevention on Economy and Society

MD: more GDP growth MD: increase equality

Impact on Social Equality (Gini Coefficient)

UN-ISDR

Scientific and Technical Advisory Group (STAG) Engagement Research and Development

UN Agencies

Donors

HFA Monitor (Indices)

strengthen the evidence base in support of the implementation and

monitoring of this framework

promote scientific research into risk patterns and trends and the causes and effects of disaster risk in society

use post-disaster reviews as opportunities to learn and

enhance public policy

strengthen a coordination function among existing

international organizations, networks, or research

frameworks

ICSU

ISSC IRDR

(Program) Post Disaster

Reviews Global Assessment

Report (GAR)

National and Regional Institutions

National Disaster Reduction Body ( National Platform / National Disaster Management Organization)

Engineers Geo-physicists

Socio-Economists

Health specialists

Politicians Administrators

Academia, NGOs

Private sectors

New Approach to Empower National Platforms and their Decision-making on DRR

Global Platform for DRR

Thematic Platforms GEM, GFMC, GRF Davos, GDN, GRIP, IFI, ICL, IPRED,

IRP, PEDRR, Knowledge & Education, UN-SPIDER

System for Inter-linkage Data Opportunity

inter-disciplinary & trans-disciplinary

Sustainable Development

Management of Disaster & Environmental Risks Preventing Future Risk

Reducing Current Risk

Building Resilience

Population Increase, Decrease, Aging

Economy Poverty, Inequity, Globalization

Pollution

Destabilized Governance

Disorganized Urbanization

Human-induced Issues

Land Use Deforestation, Desertification

Climate Change Biodiversity

Food

Energy Health

Water Security

Science and Technology

Disaster

Damage

Development

Inherent Risk to Development

Hazard

inter-disciplinary & trans-disciplinary