internet industry presented by: melinda ratzlaff scott runyan maggie norman aimee halbachwinter...
TRANSCRIPT
INTERNET INDUSTRY
Presented By:
Melinda Ratzlaff Scott RunyanMaggie Norman
Aimee Halbach Winter Thielen
Christine Hiller
T-Bill Rate1.735%
The internet is cyclical. Largest
boom was in 1990, but the bubble has burst since then.
BUSINESS
CYCLE
GDP $11,735 Billion
George W.
Bush
Republican Whitehouse
UNEMPLOYMENT
5.2%Consumer SentimentIndividual Consumers Have
Become Key Customers For The PC Industry.
There Is Recent Talk About Implementing A
Consumption Tax.
T
A
X
E
S
United States Deficit$445,000,000,000
THE CYCLICAL THE CYCLICAL INTERNETINTERNET
THE CYCLICAL THE CYCLICAL INTERNETINTERNET
““An Industry Which Is Sensitive An Industry Which Is Sensitive To Business Cycles And Whose To Business Cycles And Whose
Performance Is Tied To The Performance Is Tied To The Overall Economy”Overall Economy”
THE TECHNOLOGY AGETHE TECHNOLOGY AGE
TREND TREND2000-2002
36% IN 2004
Two Primary Factors:Two Primary Factors:
• Improving Company FundamentalsImproving Company Fundamentals
• More Favorable Macroeconomic More Favorable Macroeconomic ConditionsConditions
IT’S AN INTERNATIONAL IT’S AN INTERNATIONAL THINGTHING
United United KingdomKingdom
16,948,986 16,948,986 UsersUsers
Germany Germany 20,930,295 20,930,295
UsersUsersU.S.U.S.
119,260,663 119,260,663 UsersUsers
JapanJapan 25,091,707 25,091,707
UsersUsers
ItalyItaly 16,948,628 16,948,628
UsersUsers
HOW’S BUSINESS?HOW’S BUSINESS?
VALUE LINE RANKINGVALUE LINE RANKING
11/9811/98
NEW KIDS IN TOWNNEW KIDS IN TOWN
World Wide World Wide Search Search EnginesEngines
Yahoo’s YisouYahoo’s Yisou
Google’s BaiduGoogle’s Baidu
6 RULES OF CYBER-SPACE6 RULES OF CYBER-SPACE1. Internet Tax Non-Discrimination Act1. Internet Tax Non-Discrimination Act2. Identity Theft Penalty Enhancement 2. Identity Theft Penalty Enhancement
ActAct3. Cyber-Security Research And 3. Cyber-Security Research And
Development ActDevelopment Act
4. Can-Spam Act of 20034. Can-Spam Act of 2003
5. Electronic Signatures in Global And 5. Electronic Signatures in Global And National Commerce ActNational Commerce Act
6. Internet Tax Freedom Act Of 19986. Internet Tax Freedom Act Of 1998
1-800-1-800-FLOWERSFLOWERS.com.com
1-800-1-800-FLOWERSFLOWERS.com.com1-800-FLOWERS.com Does
More Than Just Peddle Petunias Online
1600 Stewart Avenue
Westburry, NJ. 11590
516-237-6000
www.1800flowers.com
20-CENTURY FLOWER SHOP20-CENTURY FLOWER SHOP
We Sell We Sell Flowers Flowers
And And Specialty Specialty
GiftsGifts
In Stores, In Stores, Telephone, Or Telephone, Or
Via The Via The InternetInternet
Ticker: Ticker: FLWSFLWS
Exchange: Exchange: NASDAQNASDAQ
THE HEAD FLORISTTHE HEAD FLORIST
Jim McCannJim McCann
Chief Executive Chief Executive OfficerOfficer
Been Arranging Been Arranging Flowers Since 1986Flowers Since 1986
To Build A Reliable Brand Name That People Would Learn To Love
MONEY MONEY MONEYMONEY MONEY MONEY
McCannMcCann SoenenSoenenCEO Of FTDCEO Of FTD
$975,000
$256,731
FLOWER DISTRICTFLOWER DISTRICT
FTDFTD
Roll Roll InternationaInternationa
ll
Bear Creek Bear Creek CorporationCorporation
FROM THE EXPERTFROM THE EXPERT
Price Projection High $14.00Price Projection High $14.00
Price Projection Low $9.00Price Projection Low $9.00
Financial Strength BFinancial Strength B
RELATIONSHIPSRELATIONSHIPS
THIS IS A SEASONAL THIS IS A SEASONAL BUSINESS TO BE INBUSINESS TO BE IN
Profits Are Profits Are Higher In Higher In The 2/4 The 2/4
Quarters Quarters And Tend And Tend To Drop In To Drop In
The 1/3 The 1/3 QuartersQuarters
REUTERSREUTERS
Analysts Recommend The Stock Will Analysts Recommend The Stock Will Outperform, But There Are Still A Number Of Outperform, But There Are Still A Number Of
Them That Also Recommend To HoldThem That Also Recommend To Hold
MSN MONEYMSN MONEY
Analysts Recommend 1-800-Analysts Recommend 1-800-FLOWERS.com As A Moderate FLOWERS.com As A Moderate Buy. They Also Have Quite A Buy. They Also Have Quite A
Few Analysts Who Recommend Few Analysts Who Recommend Hold.Hold.
TO BUY OR TO SELLTO BUY OR TO SELL
Buy $7.00 - $7.30Buy $7.00 - $7.30
Sell $8.00 - $8.50Sell $8.00 - $8.50
Current Current Price $7.03Price $7.03
High Intrinsic High Intrinsic Value $12.50Value $12.50
Low Intrinsic Low Intrinsic Value $8.04Value $8.04
BUYBUY
For The Low Risk InvestorFor The Low Risk Investor
INT
RIN
SIC
VA
LU
EIN
TR
INS
IC V
AL
UEBUYBUY BUYBUY
AMAZONAMAZON
1200 12th Avenue1200 12th Avenue
“Earth’s Most Customer Centric
Seattle, WA 98144Seattle, WA 98144
1-206-266-10001-206-266-1000
www.amazon.comwww.amazon.com
Company”
AMAZON, AS IN JUNGLE?AMAZON, AS IN JUNGLE?
• Offers New, Used, Refurbished And Collectable Items
• Syndicated Stores Program
• Amazon Marketplace And Merchants Program
Ticker: AMZNTicker: AMZN Exchange: NASDAQExchange: NASDAQ
GUESS WHOGUESS WHO
Person Of The Year, Time Magazine, 1999
#3 On Fortune Magazine’s “40 Under
40” Richest People 2003
Graduated Summa Cum Laude From Princeton
University
Name: Jeffrey P. Bezos
Position: CEO
Appointed: 1994
“….to build a place where people can come to find and discover
anything they might want to buy online.”
GUESS WHOGUESS WHO
THE COMPENSATION WINNER IS…THE COMPENSATION WINNER IS…
eBayMargaret Whitman
$2,908,231
AOLRichard Parson
$13,245,165YahooTerry Semel
$601,980
Runner Up!
Mr. Bezos with Mr. Bezos with $81,840$81,840
IT’S A JUNGLE OUT THERE!IT’S A JUNGLE OUT THERE!
THE MACDTHE MACD
Possible Return: 51%-53%
GIVE ME A “V”GIVE ME A “V”
Financial Strength: B
Timeliness: 2
Technical: 5
Safety: 4
Beta: 2.49
NO BOUNDARIESNO BOUNDARIES
FranceGermanyJapanCanadaGreat Britain
WA
CA
NV
KS
ND
TN
VA
KY
PA
DE
RETURNING THE FAVORRETURNING THE FAVOR
Outperformed the S&P 500 Technology Index Outperformed the S&P 500 Technology Index since August of 2002since August of 2002
ALL ABOUT THE PROFITSALL ABOUT THE PROFITS
A Dollar A Dollar Made Is A Made Is A
Dollar Dollar EarnedEarned
REUTERSREUTERS
Strong Signal To SellStrong Signal To Sell High Mean RatingHigh Mean Rating
BLOOMBERGBLOOMBERG
Strong Signal To Sell!Strong Signal To Sell!
MAGGIE’S RECOMMENDATIONMAGGIE’S RECOMMENDATION
BUY: $35-$36 SELL: $53-$55BUY: $35-$36 SELL: $53-$55
Current PriceCurrent Price$33.29$33.29
High Intrinsic ValueHigh Intrinsic Value$63.06$63.06
Low Intrinsic ValueLow Intrinsic Value$40.54$40.54
UNDERVALUEDUNDERVALUEDBUY BUY For Long-TermFor Long-Term
VerisignVerisignIntelligent Infrastructure ServicesIntelligent Infrastructure Services
487 East Middle Road
Mountain View, CA. 94043
650-961-7500
www.Verisign.com
COME AGAIN?COME AGAIN?
Ticker: Ticker: VRSNVRSN
Exchange: Exchange: NASDAQNASDAQ
Internet Services Group
Provider Of Critical
Infrastructure Services
Communications Service Group
THE MAN BEHIND THE THE MAN BEHIND THE BUSINESSBUSINESS
Stratton Stratton SclavosSclavos
CEO & DirectorCEO & Director
July July 19951995
Honored For Leadership Success By…Forbes Forbes MagazineMagazine
Morgan Morgan StanleyStanley
Computer WorldComputer World
““We want everyone to We want everyone to reap the benefits of reap the benefits of
the ongoing the ongoing revolution in digital revolution in digital
commerce and commerce and communications.”communications.”
THE OFFICERSTHE OFFICERS
$862,058$862,058
SclavosSclavos ConnerConner
ThompsonThompson CovielloCoviello
$1,262,308$1,262,308
$2,714,447$2,714,447 $684,000$684,000
BATTLING IT OUTBATTLING IT OUT
SYMANTESYMANTECC
ENTRUSTENTRUST
RSARSA
MACDMACD
Possible Return of 17.86% -- Possible Return of 17.86% -- 46.11%46.11%
BUYBUYSELL
WHAT’S IT WORTHWHAT’S IT WORTH
TimelinesTimelinesss
2/52/5
SafetySafety
4/54/5
TechnicalTechnical
2/52/5
HOW CAN I SERVE HOW CAN I SERVE YOUYOU
•Helps With Helps With Internet Related Internet Related ProblemsProblems
•Email Security Email Security SolutionsSolutions
•Billing And Billing And Payment Payment ServicesServices
•Expansion Into Expansion Into New CountriesNew Countries
STAGE FRIGHTSTAGE FRIGHT
Has Not Outperformed The S&P Has Not Outperformed The S&P In 4 YearsIn 4 Years
A NET PROBLEMA NET PROBLEM
Verisign Verisign Needs To Needs To
Continue To Continue To Outperform Outperform the S&P In the S&P In Net Profit Net Profit Margin To Margin To Bring Up Bring Up
Their 5 Year Their 5 Year Average.Average.
REUTERSREUTERS
Hold Is Hold Is WinninWinnin
g By g By Only 4 Only 4 VotesVotes
Very Diversified In Their RecommendationsVery Diversified In Their Recommendations
BLOOMBERGBLOOMBERG
Again, Analyst’s Again, Analyst’s Recommendations Are Pretty Recommendations Are Pretty
Spread Out.Spread Out.
IN RESULT…IN RESULT…
Current Price Current Price $25.33$25.33
High Intrinsic Value High Intrinsic Value $48.57$48.57
Low Intrinsic Value Low Intrinsic Value $29.14$29.14
This Stock Is Only For Risky This Stock Is Only For Risky InvestorsInvestors
UNDERVALUEUNDERVALUEDD
SELLSELL
Buy $15-Buy $15-$17$17
Sell $32-Sell $32-$34$34
YAHOOYAHOOInternet Communication Global Internet Communication Global
LeaderLeader
701 First Avenue701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089Sunnyvale, CA 94089
Phone: (404) 349-3300Phone: (404) 349-3300
www.yahoo.comwww.yahoo.com
SEARCHING AN ENGINESEARCHING AN ENGINE
Ticker: YHOOTicker: YHOO Exchange: NASDAQExchange: NASDAQ
•Provides Users Provides Users With Everything With Everything From A-ZFrom A-Z
•74% Of Revenues 74% Of Revenues Comes From Online Comes From Online AdvertisingAdvertising
GLOBAL LEADERGLOBAL LEADER
Name: Terry SemelName: Terry SemelPosition: Chairman Position: Chairman
& CEO& CEOAppointed: May 2001Appointed: May 2001
The More We The More We Invest In Our Invest In Our
Users The More Users The More They Will Invest They Will Invest
In UsIn Us
Restored A Stagnating Restored A Stagnating $8.11 Stock Price to $8.11 Stock Price to
$32.00$32.00
Restored Profitability For Restored Profitability For The First Time In 7 The First Time In 7
Consecutive QuartersConsecutive Quarters
THE GOLDEN RULETHE GOLDEN RULE
AOL – Parsons $13,245,165AOL – Parsons $13,245,165
eBay – Whitman $2,908,231eBay – Whitman $2,908,231
Yahoo – Semel $601,980Yahoo – Semel $601,980
Google – Schmidt $554,450Google – Schmidt $554,450
THE BATTLE FOR MARKET THE BATTLE FOR MARKET SHARESHARE
MACDMACD
Sell at $36-$38
Buy at $30-$33
Possible Return of 15%-20%Possible Return of 15%-20%
LINE ‘EM UP!LINE ‘EM UP!
Financial Strength B+Financial Strength B+
Timeliness 1Timeliness 1
Technical 4Technical 4
Safety 3Safety 3
THE ANALYSISTHE ANALYSISS
T R
E N
G T
HS
T R
E N
G T
H
Brand Brand RecognitionRecognition
W e
a k
n e
s s
W e
a k
n e
s s vulnerabilityvulnerability
THE ANALYSISTHE ANALYSIS
Recent Recent AcquisitionsAcquisitions
T h
r e a
t sT h
r e a
t s
Increased Increased CompetitionCompetition
O p
p o
r t u n
I t yO
p p
o r t u
n I t y
How am I doing?How am I doing?
Underperformed the s&pUnderperformed the s&p
RISING UP TO THE CHALLENGERISING UP TO THE CHALLENGE
Out performing the S&P In All Out performing the S&P In All Categories!Categories!
reutersreuters
•Low Risk RatingLow Risk Rating
•Mean Rating of 2 Mean Rating of 2 on a 1-5 scaleon a 1-5 scale
bloombergbloomberg
Analysts Are Expecting a Analysts Are Expecting a Higher Q1 Earnings Growth Higher Q1 Earnings Growth ReportReport
BB
UU
yy
What to doWhat to do
Current Price $34.94Current Price $34.94High Intrinsic Value High Intrinsic Value
$31.55$31.55Low Intrinsic Value Low Intrinsic Value
$19.72$19.72OVERVALUED
Moderate to Moderate to short-term short-term
investor with investor with holding period holding period
of 1-3 yearsof 1-3 years
BUY: $28-BUY: $28-$34$34
SELL: $36-SELL: $36-$40$40
BUYBUY
Vignette Vignette CorporationCorporation
1301 SOUTH MOPAC EXPRESSWAY
AUSTIN, TX 78746
1-512-743-4300
WWW.VIGNETTE.COM
The Efficiency Experts
Ticker: VIGN
•Founded in 1995 in Austin, TX
•Produces Content Management Software
•Went Public in 1999
Exchange: Nasdaq
W H A T I S I T T H A T Y O U D O ?
THE MAN BEHIND THE BUSINESS
•Thomas E. Hogan
•President & CEO
•Appointed in 2002
•Thomas E. Hogan
•President & CEO
•Appointed in 2002
THE MAN BEHIND THE BUSINESS
“Our goal is to build on our progress and
momentum in 2003.”
HOW DOES HOGAN ADD UP?
$10 M
$6 M
$2 M
Hog
an
(Vig
nett
e)
Tu
cci
(EM
C)
Palm
isan
o(I
BM
)
Rob
ert
s(F
ileN
et)
Total Compensation
Options
PUT ‘EM UP!
Management Software
Information Technology
Organization Software
M A C D
SELLBUY
Possible Return of
34%-41%
THE VALUE IN VIGNETTE
Financia
l Stre
ngth
B+
Earn
ings
Pre
dic
tabili
ty25
Price Growth Persistence5
Stock’s Price Stability5
G R O W I N G P A I N S
60
50
40
30
20
10
Sales vs. Qtr.
1yr. Ago
Sales vs. TTM
1yr. Ago
Sales – 5yr.
Growth
VignetteTechnologyS&P 500
COMPARING APPLES TO APPLES
Has Not Outperformed The Industry Or The S&P
500 For The Last Five Years.
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE BENJAMINS
-50 0 50 100
Gross Margin
G.M. - 5 years
Operating Margin
O.M. - 5 years
Net Profit Margin
N.P.M. - 5 years
VignetteTechnology
S&P 500
BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg Says To Hold
The 40-60% Can Change In The Near Future
REUTERS
HOLD
The high mean rating means
that the company could be in serious trouble.
Says ToHOLD
Says To
M Y R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
S
E
L
L
ValuEngine
Risk Adverse
Good Concepts
Current Price Current Price $1.29$1.29
Intrinsic: High $1.36 Low $1.15
BUY: $1.00-BUY: $1.00-$1.29$1.29
SELL: $1.52-SELL: $1.52-$1.58$1.58
eBayeBay““I Got It On eBay!”I Got It On eBay!”
eBayeBay
2145 Hamilton Avenue2145 Hamilton Avenue
San Jose, CA. 95125San Jose, CA. 95125
1-408-376-74001-408-376-7400
www.eBay.comwww.eBay.com
““I Got It On eBay!”I Got It On eBay!”
WHAT A CONCEPT!WHAT A CONCEPT!
Ticker: EBAYTicker: EBAY Exchange: NASDAQExchange: NASDAQ
* Lead Trading * Lead Trading Forum On the Forum On the
InternetInternet
* Over 27,000 * Over 27,000 Categories to Categories to Choose FromChoose From
* Uses Paypal for * Uses Paypal for Safe and Easy Safe and Easy TransactionsTransactions
The power of a womanThe power of a woman
Margaret (Meg) Whitman
President, CEO, & Director
Appointed in 1998
eBay desires to create eBay desires to create an efficient, honest an efficient, honest
market where everyone market where everyone has to play by the same has to play by the same
rulesrules
Margaret (meg) Whitman
Show me the moneyShow me the money
AOL: $13,245,165AOL: $13,245,165
Yahoo: $601,980Yahoo: $601,980
Google: $554,450Google: $554,450
eBay: $2,908,231eBay: $2,908,231
Amazon: $81,840Amazon: $81,840
Entry-Level Marketer: $30,000Entry-Level Marketer: $30,000
The head honchos!The head honchos!
eBay’s Main Competitor!eBay’s Main Competitor!
AOLAOLyahooyahoo googlegoogle
macdmacd
Possible Return: 61%-62%
What’s in a name?What’s in a name?
Financial Strength A+Timeliness 2Beta
2.06Technical 3Safety 3
Tickets to the gun showTickets to the gun show
•Brand and Market Leadership
•Double-Digit Growth
•Innovative Developments
Is that a threat?Is that a threat?
•Results of litigation proceedings
•competition
•Exchange rates
Head of the classHead of the class
Has Outperformed the S&P Since October Has Outperformed the S&P Since October 20022002
optimismoptimism
Analysts are optimistic about Analysts are optimistic about
eBay’s core businesses and eBay’s core businesses and
emerging growth vehiclesemerging growth vehicles
paypalpaypal Marketing abroadMarketing abroad
•Makes online transactions Makes online transactions easyeasy
•Customers feel confident Customers feel confident about putting their about putting their information onlineinformation online
•30% of revenues come 30% of revenues come from foreign countriesfrom foreign countries
•Major playerMajor player
•Untapped diversified Untapped diversified marketsmarkets
reutersreuters
Leaning towards a buy for ebay’s Leaning towards a buy for ebay’s stockstock
bloombergbloomberg
Buy!Buy!Buy!Buy! Buy!Buy!
What would scott do?What would scott do?
undervaluedundervalued
Current price
$31.97
High intrinsic
$76.58
Low intrinsic
$49.55
So…So…
Buy!Buy!
Buying at $31.97 +Buying at $31.97 +Selling at $60.00 =Selling at $60.00 =
gain of 87.7%gain of 87.7%
Buy: $36-$37Buy: $36-$37 Sell: $58-$60Sell: $58-$60
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME
The Internet Group