introducing the scottish longitudinal study (sls): from data … · 2015. 12. 15. ·...

Introducing the

Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS):

from data sources, data governance to

an example project of SLS in action

Prof Chris Dibben

Director of the SLS

What is the SLS? What is the SLS? What is the SLS? What is the SLS?

The Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLSSLSSLSSLS) is a large-scale, anonymised linkage anonymised linkage anonymised linkage anonymised linkage studystudystudystudy created

using data from current Scottish administrative and statistical sources.

The SLS is designed to capture 5.5%* of the Scottish population

The SLS sample is selected using 20 semi- random birthdates

It is a joint project between National Records of Scotland (NRSNRSNRSNRS) & University of Edinburgh

Sample size much larger than most surveys Sample size much larger than most surveys Sample size much larger than most surveys Sample size much larger than most surveys

±270,000 traced SLS members and ±505,000 household members

Representative of the Scottish Representative of the Scottish Representative of the Scottish Representative of the Scottish populationpopulationpopulationpopulation

No age limits (babies-oldest old) & includes communal establishments

Covers Covers Covers Covers many areas of interestmany areas of interestmany areas of interestmany areas of interest

Demography, economic and social issues, health, housing, mortality, migration, fertility etc

Can be linked with detailed geographical Can be linked with detailed geographical Can be linked with detailed geographical Can be linked with detailed geographical informationinformationinformationinformation

Users can provide look-up tables relevant to their research projects

What data are What data are What data are What data are included in the included in the included in the included in the

SLS record linkage study?SLS record linkage study?SLS record linkage study?SLS record linkage study?

The main data included are:

Census data (1991, 2001 & 2011)

Vital Events data: births, deaths and marriages (from 1991 onwards)

Migration information (from GP registration data)

School education information (from 2007 onwards)

Weather and pollution data for each part of Scotland

Measures of how populated/rural an area is

Measures of area-level deprivation (SIMD, Carstairs, etc)

Health data from Information Services Division (ISDISDISDISD) - part of NHS

Scotland -may also be linked into the SLS, however further approvals are

required to access NHS health data.

Can add in NHS data…

1991199119911991

Original sample: 270,385

selected from 1991 Census

Plus members of household

2001200120012001

265,104

sample members found at 2001 Census


Events 1991-2011 Births to sample mothers 52,260

Births to sample fathers 48,363

Widow(er)hoods of sample members 20,154

Marriages of sample members 42,436

Exits 1991-2011 Deaths 56,961 Embarkations* 30,369

Entries 1991-2011 Births 63,181 Immigrations 46,092

SLS Study structure

5.3% - based on 20 birthdays

2011201120112011

270,947



1991199119911991

Original sample: 270,385

selected from 1991 Census


2001200120012001

265,104



Events 1991-2011 Births to sample mothers 52,260

Births to sample fathers 48,363

Widow(er)hoods of sample members 20,154

Marriages of sample members 42,436

Exits 1991-2011 Deaths 56,961 Embarkations* 30,369

Entries 1991-2011 Births 63,181 Immigrations 46,092

SLS Study structure

5.3% - based on 20 birthdays

193,735 193,735 193,735 193,735 members members members members

found at found at found at found at bothbothbothboth1991 and 20011991 and 20011991 and 20011991 and 2001

2011201120112011

270,947



196,702 196,702 196,702 196,702 members members members members found found found found at at at at bothbothbothboth 2001 2001 2001 2001 and and and and 2011201120112011

151,910151,910151,910151,910 members found at members found at members found at members found at 1991, 2001 and 20111991, 2001 and 20111991, 2001 and 20111991, 2001 and 2011

SLS Governance

SLS Steering CommitteeSLS Steering CommitteeSLS Steering CommitteeSLS Steering Committee

……is the body responsible to the Data Providers

for ensuring maximum public benefit is

achieved from the study and the interests of the

study members are protected.

SLS Research BoardSLS Research BoardSLS Research BoardSLS Research Board

The use The use The use The use of SLS data is of SLS data is of SLS data is of SLS data is controlled by several parts of legislation, including; controlled by several parts of legislation, including; controlled by several parts of legislation, including; controlled by several parts of legislation, including;

• UK Statistics Authority Code of Practice & the Protocol on Data Access & Confidentiality

• Census Act 1920

• Population (Statistics) Act 1960

• Data Protection Act 1998

• Freedom of Information Act 2000

Membership of both groups include a representative of each data provider.

The 5 safes of secure

access to confidential

dataSafe People

Safe Projects

Safe Settings

Safe Outputs

====

Safe Data

++++

++++++++

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your research your research your research your research

questionquestionquestionquestion

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a training a training a training a training

sessionsessionsessionsession

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Contact Contact Contact Contact

the SLS the SLS the SLS the SLS

helpdeskhelpdeskhelpdeskhelpdesk

5555. Gain approval . Gain approval . Gain approval . Gain approval

from the SLS from the SLS from the SLS from the SLS

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SLS undertaking SLS undertaking SLS undertaking SLS undertaking

formformformform

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& presenting & presenting & presenting & presenting

resultsresultsresultsresults

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clearance & clearance & clearance & clearance &

disclosure disclosure disclosure disclosure

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8888. . . . AnalysisAnalysisAnalysisAnalysis

StepStepStepStep----bybybyby----step guide to accessing step guide to accessing step guide to accessing step guide to accessing

SLS dataSLS dataSLS dataSLS data

Numbers by council area?

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

28,000

SLS members by council area - 2011 Census

Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) in Scotland

Proportion of NEETs in Scotland

2004-2013

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pro

portio

n (%)

Pro

portio

n (%)

Pro

portio

n (%)

Pro

portio

n (%)

YearYearYearYear

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, Claimant count, ONS

Research Research Research Research questionsquestionsquestionsquestions

To what extent does NEET status affect

outcomes in later life?

What individual, family, educational and

geographical factors are related to risks

of becoming NEET?

Are there geographic patterns of NEETs?

And, have these patterns changed over

time?

Research questionsResearch questionsResearch questionsResearch questions

To what extent does NEET status affect

outcomes in later life?


geographical factors are related to risks

of becoming NEET?

Are there geographic patterns of NEETs?

And, have these patterns changed over

time?

To what extent does NEET status

affect outcomes in later life?

Cohort 1:

Aged 16-19

2001Aged 26-29 2011

Aged 26-29

2001Aged 36-39 2011Aged 16-19 1991

Cohort 2:

non-NEET 2001

NEET 2001NEET 2001NEET 2001NEET 2001Outcome

Non-NEET 1991 – active 2001

Non-NEET 1991 – inactive 2001

NEET 1991 – active 2001

NEET 1991 – inactive 2001

Outcome

Economic activity in 2011 by

2001 and 1991 NEET status NEET NEET NEET NEET status status status status

2001200120012001

% % % % EconomicallyEconomicallyEconomicallyEconomically

activeactiveactiveactive% Not active% Not active% Not active% Not active TotalTotalTotalTotal

NonNonNonNon----NEETNEETNEETNEET 89 11 7,945

NEETNEETNEETNEET 57 43 996

NEET NEET NEET NEET statusstatusstatusstatus

1991199119911991

% Economically

active% Not active Total

nonnonnonnon----NEETNEETNEETNEET 90 10 8,980

NEETNEETNEETNEET 72 28 1,265

Source: SLS

Economic activity in 2001 and

2011 by 1991 NEET status

Economic Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity

2001, 20112001, 20112001, 20112001, 2011

% non% non% non% non----NEET 1991NEET 1991NEET 1991NEET 1991 % NEET 1991% NEET 1991% NEET 1991% NEET 1991

Active both 2001 Active both 2001 Active both 2001 Active both 2001

and 2011and 2011and 2011and 2011

79 44

Active 2001, not Active 2001, not Active 2001, not Active 2001, not

active 2011active 2011active 2011active 2011

7 10

Not Active 2001, Not Active 2001, Not Active 2001, Not Active 2001,

active 2011active 2011active 2011active 2011

8 17

Inactive both 2001 Inactive both 2001 Inactive both 2001 Inactive both 2001

and 2011and 2011and 2011and 2011

6 29

TotalTotalTotalTotal 7306 958SourceSourceSourceSource:::: SLS SLS SLS SLS

29% of NEETs in 1991 remained not in employment and education in

the 20 years follow-up, compared with 6% of non-NEETs in 1991

2011 NS-SEC categories by

2001 and 1991 NEET status

NSNSNSNS----SEC SEC SEC SEC 20112011201120112001 cohort (Cohort 1)2001 cohort (Cohort 1)2001 cohort (Cohort 1)2001 cohort (Cohort 1) 1991 cohort (Cohort 2)1991 cohort (Cohort 2)1991 cohort (Cohort 2)1991 cohort (Cohort 2)

non-NEET

(%)NEET (%)

non-NEET

(%)NEET (%)

HigherHigherHigherHigher ProfessionalProfessionalProfessionalProfessional 13 3 15 5

LowerLowerLowerLower ProfessionalProfessionalProfessionalProfessional 31 17 31 19

IntermediateIntermediateIntermediateIntermediate 20 12 16 13

OwnOwnOwnOwn----accountaccountaccountaccount

WorkersWorkersWorkersWorkers5 6 9 9

LowerLowerLowerLower----TechTechTechTech 10 12 9 9

SemiSemiSemiSemi----RoutineRoutineRoutineRoutine 13131313 32323232 11111111 25252525

RoutineRoutineRoutineRoutine 9999 19191919 8888 19191919

NNNN 6,647 519 7,640 732

Source: SLS

Limiting long term illness

Outcome: Limiting long term illness vs no limiting

long term illness, 2011

Question on limiting long term illness 2011

Limiting long-term illness in

2011 by 2001 and 1991 NEET

status

NEET NEET NEET NEET status status status status

2001200120012001% no LLTI% no LLTI% no LLTI% no LLTI % with LLTI% with LLTI% with LLTI% with LLTI TotalTotalTotalTotal


NEETNEETNEETNEET 82 18 996


1991199119911991% no LLTI % with LLTI Total

nonnonnonnon----NEETNEETNEETNEET 91 9 8,980


Source: SLS

Depression and anxiety

Outcome: Prescribed with anti-depressant and/or anti-anxiety

medication between 2009 and 2012 vs not prescribed with

the medication

• ISD (Information Service Department)

• Prescribing information system

• 2009 -2012

• BNF (British National Formulary codes):

• 4.2 (antipsychotics)

• 4.3 (anti-depressants)

• 4.1.2 (anxiolytics)

Prescription of antidepressant and

antianxiety drugs between 2009 and

2012 by 2001 and 1991 NEET status

NEET status, NEET status, NEET status, NEET status,

2001200120012001% no% no% no% no % yes% yes% yes% yes TotalTotalTotalTotal




1991199119911991% no % yes Total



Source: SLS

Conclusions -

consequences

The analyses followed young people for 10 and

20 years (two cohorts: 2001 & 1991), providing

new evidence on long-term impact of NEET

experiences

We found that NEET status is associated with

higher risks of:

Economic inactivity

Working in low status occupations

Limiting long-term illness

Depression and anxiety


geographical factors are related to risks of

becoming NEET?

Cohort 3:

Aged 6-9

1991

Aged 16-

19 2001

Parents’ social

position or

labour market

status;

Type of Family;

Health status of

family

members and

self;

Local area

deprivation

Teenage

pregnancy

Age 19 &

under

Outcome:

NEET statusQualification

s

Local area

labour

market

Urban\rural

What factors predicts the risk of

becoming NEET?

Cohort 4:

Born 92-

95

Aged 6-9

2001

Aged 16-

19 2011

Birth weight

Parents’

social

position or

labour

market status

Change in

Parents’ social

position or

labour market

status;

Migration;

Family

disruption;

Health status of

family

members and

self

School

census,

attendance,

SQA

Free school

meal;

exclusion;

truancy;

attainment

Aged 13-

18 2007-

2010

Outcome:

NEET status

Qualification

s

Family

Labour

market

Teenage

pregnancy

MalesMalesMalesMales

Highest educational

qualification

Local NEET rate

Tenure of childhood home

(renting)

Number of siblings

Household type other than

‘married couple’

Number of adults employed in

childhood home

Teenage birth before end 2001

FemalesFemalesFemalesFemales

Teenage birth before end 2001

Highest educational

qualification

Number of siblings

Being a carer for >19 hours per

week

Local NEET rate

Number of adults employed in

childhood home

Tenure of childhood home

(renting)

Cohort 3 – Most

significant factors

MalesMalesMalesMales

Number of passes at SCQF

level 5 or higher (Standard

Credit, Intermediate 2,

Highers, Advanced Highers)

by school stage S4

Proportion of time absent

from school

Number of exclusions

Local NEET rate

Registered for School Meals

FemalesFemalesFemalesFemales

Teenage birth before 2010

Number of passes at SCQF

level 5 or higher (Standard

Credit, Intermediate 2, Highers,

Advanced Highers) by school

stage S4

Proportion of time absent from

school

Number of exclusions

Local NEET rate

Registered for School Meals

Cohort 4 – Most

significant factors

Conclusions – risk factors

Consistency of results between cohorts

Consistency of results between genders (exception:

teenage pregnancy)

Consistency of results between Cohort 2: School Census

& School Census plus 2011 Census

Factors measured closer to NEET age group are more

significant: School Census, local NEET rate, teenage

pregnancy

Local NEET rate may affect individuals in different ways:

competition for employment, insufficient resources in an

area, being NEET seen as inevitable outcome, peers all

being NEET, local area not recovering from loss of local

industry/employer

Acknowledgements

Research team: Kevin Ralston, Dawn Everington, Gillian Raab, Elspeth

Graham, Chris Dibben

The help provided by staff of the Longitudinal Studies Centre - Scotland

(LSCS) is acknowledged.

The LSCS is supported by the ESRC/JISC, the Scottish Funding Council, the

Chief Scientist's Office and the Scottish Government. The authors are

responsible for the interpretation of the data. Census output is Crown

copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO

and the Queen's Printer for Scotland

Thank support from the Employability, Skills and Lifelong Learning analysis

research team of the Scottish Government

Full version of research report:

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/10/2258

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/10/6731

introducing the scottish longitudinal study (sls): from data … · 2015. 12. 15. ·...

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