introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · recommended reading: general •...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Introduction to climate modeling
ECOLMAS Course 1-4 April 2008
![Page 2: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Course description
• Goal: To equipe you with a comfortable basic knowledge in the trade of climate modeling
• Course web site: http://www.geo.uni-bremen.de/~apau/ecolmas_modeling2
![Page 3: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Recommended reading:General
• Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994.
• Ruddiman, William F.: Earth‘s Climate. Past and Future. Freeman, 2001.
![Page 4: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Recommended reading:Modeling
• Trenberth, Kevin E. (ed.): Climate System Modeling, Cambridge University Press, 1992.
• McGuffie, K. and A. Henderson-Sellers: Forty years of numerical climate modeling, International Journal of Climatology 21, 1067-1109 (2001).
• Washington, Warren M. and Parkinson, Claire L.: An Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling. 2nd edition. University Science Books, Sausalito, California, 2005.
![Page 5: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What is climate?
Climate‘s what we expect, but weather‘s what we get.
(Larry Riddle)
![Page 6: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What is climate?
• Climate is about the expected values of the meteorological elements (“climatic elements“) at a location during a certain month or season– temperature, precipitation, wind, pressure,
cloudiness, humidity usually at the surface of the Earth
– annual means, distribution through the year as well as interannual variability
![Page 7: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
What is the climate system?
![Page 8: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Vegetation
Atmosphere
Ice
Ocean
Landsurface
From Apollo 17 flight, 7 December 1972
![Page 9: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Conceptual model of the climate system
Figure 1-5 (bottom) from Ruddiman (2001)
![Page 10: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Conceptual model of the climate system
• Complexity of real climate system can be organized and simplified in a conceptual model
Engineer’s point of view: the climate system running as a machine
But what are the connections between the various components it is made of?
![Page 11: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Interactions between climate system components
Energy exchange in different forms:
• Sensible heat flux
• Latent heat flux– Related to evaporation/precipitation and water flux in
the atmosphere, salt transport in the ocean
• Momentum flux– E.g. associated with wind energy
![Page 12: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
What is a model?Models are• smaller than reality (finite number of processes, reduced size of
“phase space”)• simpler than reality
(description of processes is idealized)• closed, whereas reality is open (infinite number of external, unpredictable forcing factors
is reduced to a few specified factors)(Hans von Storch)
![Page 13: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
• Examples of models– models build to scale (houses, cars, …)– map, sketch or drawing– numerical model
• conceptual• quasi-realistic, surrogate of reality
• Models put numbers on ideas (W. F. Ruddiman)
![Page 14: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
http://www.miniatur-wunderland.de/
![Page 15: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Why use climate models?
• To formulate and test hypothesis• To have an independent way to test whether a
particular theory can explain the (proxy-) data• To understand past climates
– response to climate forcings– couplings and feedbacks between climate system
components
• To relate present climate to human activities• To make predictions for the future
![Page 16: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Types of models
• Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)
• Ocean general circulation models (OGCMs)• Sea-ice and land ice models • Vegetation models• Biogeochemical models• Marine ecosystem models
![Page 17: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
First numerical model
• First description of a method for constructing a weather forecast by means of numerical calculation was published by Richardson (1922)
![Page 18: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Basics of numerical models
1. State variables
2. Fundamental equations
3. Parameterization
4. Discretization
5. Numerical solution
![Page 19: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
State variables
• Many variables can be thought of as a “concentration“ or “property per unit volume“.
• Fluxes then have dimensions of “property per unit time and area”.
![Page 20: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Examples of state variables
• Ocean– Temperature
– Salinity
– Pressure
– Current velocity
• Atmosphere– Temperature
– Density
– Humidity
– Cloud water content
– Pressure
– Wind velocity
![Page 21: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Fundamental equations• Conservation of momentum
(horizontal) velocity (winds, currents)• Conservation of mass (“principle of continuity”)
vertical velocity, humidity, salinity• Conservation of energy (“first law of
thermodynamics”)temperature
• Equation of statedensity (air, sea water)
![Page 22: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Parameterization in climate models
• Sub-gridscale processes, or processes that cannot be derived from „first principles“, must be parameterized– e.g. thundercloud formation, soil moisture
transfer in the atmosphere, eddies and convection in the ocean
![Page 23: Introduction to climate modeling - uni-bremen.deapau/ecolmas... · Recommended reading: General • Hartmann, Dennis L.: Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, 1994. • Ruddiman,](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042218/5ec370f6ab7f91270018e534/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Discretization
Most common in ocean models:
• “Finite difference” method in time
• “Finite difference” or “finite volume” method in space