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Page 1: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Introduction to Aggreko

Page 2: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

The global leader in temporary power and temperature control

• A specialist energy services business, offering temporary power and

temperature control on a global basis

– Services are mission-critical, asset-intensive, often involve significant engineering

input, and are frequently in response to emergencies

• Two business models, which share resources

– Local business rents power and temperature control equipment, mainly in

developed economies, to commercial, industrial, utility and government users

– International Power Projects sells electricity, supplying and operating utility power

plants, mainly in emerging markets to utility and government users

• Global scale

– Providing services in around 100 countries; >8,000 MW of power fleet; >4,600

permanent employees

• FTSE-100, market capitalisation ~ £6.0bn

– 2011: Revenues £1,396m, Operating Profit £345m(1), Return on Capital Employed

28%(1)

2 (1) Before amortisation of intangible assets arising from business combinations

Page 3: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

The global leader in temporary power and temperature control

• Total Shareholder Return over last five years: 394%

– Five year Compound Annual Growth Rate:

– Revenues: 21%

– Basic EPS(1): 34%;

– Dividend: 25%;

– Extremely strong cash generation: over £1bn invested in new fleet in last six years

financed entirely from operating cashflow

• Investment Case

– The global leader in two fast-growing markets

– Growth driven by long-term structural drivers in energy sector

– Proven strategy, delivering outstanding growth, with plenty of runway ahead

– Diversified exposure to both rapidly-growing emerging markets and mature

markets

– Valuable and sustainable competitive advantages

3 (1) 2011 Basic EPS is pre-amortisation of intangible assets arising from business combinations and pre-exceptional tax credits

Page 4: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

4

2011 Results Pre-Exceptional Tax Credit

2011 2010 Movement

£m £m As reported Underlying

Revenue 1,396 1,230 14% 22%

Revenue excl. pass-through fuel 1,288 1,156 11%

Trading profit 341 314 8% 26%

Operating profit 345 317 9%

Net interest expense (18) (11) (85)%

Profit before tax 327 306 6%

Taxation (93) (92) (1)%

Profit after tax 234 214 9%

Dividends per share (declared) 20.79p 18.90p 10%

Diluted Earnings Per Share 87.72 79.69 10%

(1) All numbers are pre-amortisation of intangible assets arising from business combinations and pre-exceptional tax credits.

Note: Post amortisation and exceptional items: 2011 PBT £324m, PAT £260m, D-EPS 97.49p; 2010 PBT £304m, PAT

£213m, D-EPS 78.98p

Page 5: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

5

2011 Results Post-Exceptional Tax Credit

2011 2010 Movement

£m £m As reported Underlying

Revenue 1,396 1,230 14% 22%

Revenue excl. pass-through fuel 1,288 1,156 11%

Trading profit 341 314 8% 26%

Operating profit 345 317 9%

Net interest expense (18) (11) (85)%

Profit before tax 327 306 6%

Taxation (64) (92) 31%

Profit after tax 263 214 23%

Dividends per share (declared) 20.79p 18.90p 10%

Diluted Earnings Per Share 98.83 79.69 24%

(1) All numbers are pre-amortisation of intangible assets arising from business combinations

Note: Post amortisation and exceptional items: 2011 PBT £324m, PAT £260m, D-EPS 97.49p; 2010 PBT £304m, PAT

£213m, D-EPS 78.98p

Page 6: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

2011: Revenues of £1,396m from three product families

6

Power

(inc ancillaries)

Temperature

Control

Oil-free Air

Rental £1,042m (75% of

total revenues)

£899m / 86%

£116m / 11%

£27m / 3%

Gross Rental Assets

£2,013m

£1,732m / 86%

£214m / 11%

£67m / 3%

Equipment Gas & diesel

Generators 5kw-2Mw,

transformers up to

120Kv, cable,

distribution, fuelling

systems

Chillers, heaters, air

conditioners, air

handlers, de-

humidification,

cooling towers

Electric and diesel

oil-free air

compressors

Why Power & Temperature Control?

Mission critical: availability, service and reliability more important than price => strong margins

Fleet fungible between sector and geography => can operate as a global business

Rental product is different to purchase product => differentiated offering

Long life of equipment => 10-year old equipment can get same rate as new

Page 7: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Underlying segmental performance*

REVENUE TRADING PROFIT

2011

£m

2010

£m

Underlying

%

2011

£m

2010

£m

Underlying

%

Local Business 728 604 21% 120 104 15%

Trading Margin: 16.6% 17.2%

Rolling 12-month ROCE: 18.8% 20.6%

Int’nl Power Projects 554 444 25% 215 161 33%

excl pass-through fuel Trading Margin: 38.8% 36.5%

Rolling 12-month ROCE: 39.8% 40.1%

Total 1,282 1,048 22% 335 265 26%

Trading Margin: 26.2% 25.4%

Rolling 12-month ROCE: 28.3% 29.2%

* Pre-amortisation and excluding the net book value of intangible assets arising from business combinations. Also excluding revenue, trading profit and

operating assets from Vancouver Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, Asian Games, London Olympics, pass-through fuel and currency.

7

Page 8: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Our work is mission critical: some recent projects

• Utility support

– 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas) Bangladesh, 100MW Tanzania, 60MW Kenya, Brazil 47MW

• Commercial / Industrial / Utility

– Spent-fuel cooling for nuclear power plant; power for oil refinery during shut-down; power for utility customers during network repair

• Emergency response to natural disasters

– Tsunami in Japan

– Hurricane Protection Plans in North America

• Military Support

– US Army in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kuwait & Iraq

• Major Events

– Asian Games, Glastonbury, US Superbowl & Pan-American Games

– London 2012

8

Page 9: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Customer base well diversified: revenue by customer type

9

IPP Local Business Full Year 2011

Excl. pass through fuel

Events 9%

Construction 8%

Contracting 8%

Services 7%

Quarrying and mining

6%

Oil and gas 16%

Petrochemical and refining

13%

Manufacturing 9%

Shipping 4%

Utilities 11%

Military 1%

Other 8%

Quarrying and mining

4% Oil and gas 3%

Manufacturing 1%

Utilities 80%

Military 12%

Page 10: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Customer base well diversified : revenue by geography

10

Full Year 2011

Excl. pass through fuel

North America 20%

Europe 15%

Middle East 15%

Africa 12%

Asia and Australasia

22%

South & Central America

16%

Page 11: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Competitor segmentation

11

Thousands of local small businesses

Hundreds of national

10-15 regional

2

multi-

national

Aggreko, CAT

Speedy Hire,

Power Electrics

Aggreko, CAT,

APR Energy

Three competitors in

International Power Projects

Four types of competitor

in the Local Business

Hertz, URI,

Bredenoord, RSS

Page 12: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Two Business Models

The Local Business

Page 13: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Local business: 57% of revenues(1), £734m in 2011 • Vital Statistics

– Contract value - £1k - £1m, average £10k, duration 1 day -12 months

– Customers: all sectors

– Application: all types – 25% emergency response

– Equipment: all types

– In-service lead-time: 3 hours - 4 weeks

– MW in power fleet: >3,500

• Organisation

– 165 Service Centres in 39 countries: Europe & Middle East: 57, North America: 54,

International: 54

• Keys to competitive advantage

– Experienced people and a broad range of equipment able to deploy quickly

– A low-cost operating model

– Local reputation and brand

• Financial performance

– Since our first strategy review in 2003, revenues and trading profit have increased

at a compound annual growth rate of 14% and 21% respectively.

– 2011 Trading Margin 17%(2); ROCE 19%(2)

13

(1) Excluding pass through fuel (2) Pre-amortisation of intangible assets arising from business combinations

Page 14: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

14

Industrial

Page 15: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

15

Major Events

Major Events

Page 16: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

16

Commercial

Page 17: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Shipping

Page 18: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

18

Utilities

Page 19: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Local business revenues grow at healthy premium to GDP

19

• Aggreko’s experience over the period 2003-2008

– At nominal GDP-growth of under 5%, our businesses tend to grow at 2-3pp above GDP

– At nominal GDP-growth of over 5%, our businesses grow much faster

GDP ++ GDP +++

Aggreko Revenue CAGR 03-08 vs "Aggreko" Nominal GDP

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

France UK

Germany

Irelan

d

Belgium

Netherl

ands US

Spain

Australia

Middle East

Aggreko GDP Aggreko Revenue

Aggreko Local business

revenue CAGR 03-08 = 18%

Aggreko Revenues

Aggreko GDP

GDP ++ GDP +++

Source: Oxford Economics, Aggreko management accounts

Page 20: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

The strategy for the Local business

• In regions where GDP growth is likely to be low:-

– Build concentration and expand footprint in existing markets

• New service centres opened in the last 5 years include: Indianapolis, Long Island,

Gillette, Metz, Padova, Rome, Warsaw, Wollongong, Newman,

• Acquire businesses: GE Energy Rentals, New Zealand Generator Hire, Northland

Power, Power Plus

– Use efficiencies of scale to increase market share

– Go after under-exploited opportunities and manage product offerings

• Gas Projects; Temperature Control in Middle East & Latin America; Oil & Gas

sector penetration in North America; Mining sector in Australia.

• In regions where we expect high rates of GDP growth:-

– Enter new countries: Colombia, Peru, Panama, Russia, India

– Establish Local service centres: Delhi, Guangzhou, Durban, Belo Horizonte, Bogota,

Camacari, Copiapo, Lima, Porto Alegre

– Acquire business that give us a head start: Cummins India 20

Page 21: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Two Business Models

International Power Projects

Page 22: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

International Power Projects: 43% of revenues(1), 64% of profits

• Vital Statistics

– Contract value - £1m - £60m pa (average: £4m), average duration 6-12 months

– Customers: utilities, military, mining, petrochemical

– Application: base-load & peak-shaving power

– In-service lead-time: 10-12 weeks

– 2011: 136 contracts in 46 countries

– MW in fleet: >4,400, containerised 1 MW units, gas & diesel fuelled

• Organisation

– Headquarters: Dubai

– Hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Panama

• Keys to competitive advantage

– The ability to deploy large fleet capacity quickly anywhere in the world

– Easily-transportable, standardised, purpose-built equipment of the highest reliability

– Expert people in engineering, commercial, tax, logistics, risk management

• Financial performance

– Since our first strategy review in 2003, revenues and trading profit have increased

at a compound annual growth rate of 31% and 40% respectively(1).

– 2011 Trading Margin 39%(2); ROCE 40%(2)

22 (1) Excluding pass through fuel (2) Excluding pass through fuel and pre-amortisation of intangible assets arising from business combinations

Page 23: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Uganda: 30 MW diesel power plant

Page 24: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

24

Bangladesh: 70 MW gas power plant on-line in 90 days

Page 25: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Kenya: 100 MW

Page 26: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Drivers of Demand in International Power Projects

• Demand for power is growing very rapidly in developing countries

– 6% CAGR in electricity consumption

• Chronic under-investment in new and replacement power

infrastructure in many developing countries

– Frequent breakdowns; power utilisation factors reaching critical

points => more frequent and damaging power cuts

• Capital markets unwilling to support long-term infrastructure

projects in many developing countries

– Too many bad experiences; plenty of opportunities where political

risk is low

• De-carbonisation and ageing power fleet => developed countries

need to invest billions on power generation & transmission

– Poorer countries are being “crowded out” from equipment supply

and financing

26

Page 27: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Aggreko has a compelling solution

• Immediate solution to today’s problems; instant result, immediately felt

by industry and consumers

• No need to raise capital for purchase; pay as you go

• Distributed generation means that power can go where it is most

needed

• Low risk, proven solution, used by many countries

• Technically extremely helpful to network operators

– helps stabilise grid and supports other assets

• No long-term commitment – send it away when you don’t need it

27

Page 28: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

International Power Projects Strategy

• Invest heavily in fleet => capture economies of scale => be the

largest & most efficient operator

• Operating on a global scale means we can:

– Serve demand wherever it may be

– Deliver premium standards of service: fleet availability; speed of

deployment; safety; service quality

– Diversify and manage risk

– Build recognition of brand and proposition

– Gain easy access to low-cost financing

• Focus on capturing operating efficiencies

– Control of design, manufacture and supply chain => low average capital

cost / MW

– Re-builds => multiple lives for engines => low average capital cost / MW

– Sharing fleet and people with Local business

– Investment in local staff; leverage overheads 28

Page 29: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Drivers of Demand:

Demand for electricity is growing faster

than supply

Page 30: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Drivers of Demand:

Demand Side

Page 31: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

|31

From hut to house ... Demand for power grows very fast in developing countries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Lightin

g +

Fan TV

Fridge A

C

Wat

er h

eate

r

Sound s

yste

m

Hous

e Li

ghtin

g

Com

puter

Po

we

r D

em

an

d (

kw

)

Item Load

Base load

CAGR: 25 years = 18%, 50 years = 9%

ILLUSTRATIVE

Page 32: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Electricity consumption growing fast in non-OECD countries

32 Source: IEA, Oxford Economics

Non-OECD

7.4%

World

3.8%

OECD

1.0%

Page 33: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

We forecast 4% CAGR in electricity demand to 2015

33 Source: IEA, Oxford Economics

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Rolling 3-average Growth in Electricity Demand 2007-2015

OE Proj World OE Proj OECD OE Proj Non-OECD

Non-OECD

6.2%

World

4.0%

OECD

1.6%

Page 34: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Comparative kwh consumption per head and growth rates

Kwh/head consumption

08

CAGR in kwh/head

consumption 03-08

USA 12,800 0%

UK 5,700 0%

Brazil 2,134 4%

China 2,230 14%

Vietnam 780 13%

Angola 177 12%

Yemen 150 7%

2008 2008 2008-2015

Number of

countries

Population,

millions

Average Kwh

per capita

Consumption

CAGR

Poorer than China 60 2936 426 7.1%

China 1 1339 2230 9.1%

Richer than China 92 2227 5800 2.0%

Totals 153 6501 2638 3.9%

34 Source: Oxford Economics

Page 35: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

>5 billion people growing electricity consumption faster than GDP by 2012

35 Source: Oxford Economics

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Population with Electricity Consumption Growing faster than GDP (billion)

Popula

tion b

n

Page 36: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Drivers of Demand:

De-carbonisation + replacement cycle in OECD countries

Huge demands for infrastructure financing in low-risk countries

Higher risk countries get crowded out

Page 37: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Drivers of Demand:

Supply Side

Page 38: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Recent capacity growth driven almost entirely by China

38

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

197

9

198

1

198

3

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

200

9

New MW of Permanent Power Installed 1979-2009

World China World Ex China

Source: Platts

Page 39: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Outside China, plant is ageing rapidly, investment inadequate

39 Source: Platts

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

New MW Installed 1979-2009 vs Plant >40 years old

World Installed by Year Plant >40 years excl China Installed excl China

Plant > 40 years old

Page 40: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

A replacement cycle is about to start in OECD countries

40 Source: Platts

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2000 2005 2010 2015

N AMERICA

MIDEAST

LATIN AMERICA

EUROPE

CIS

CHINA

ASIA

ANZ-OCEANIA

AFRICA

~ 25% of global generating capacity will be >40 years old by 2015

MW

Page 41: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

£200 billion required in UK alone in next 10 years

“The decline in our indigenous gas supplies and the need to make

demanding cuts in carbon emission levels, represent unprecedented

challenges, which will grow over the next two decades.

Large parts of our ageing energy infrastructure will need

replacement and, at the same time, we must make rapid progress

towards the substantial decarbonisation of our economy. We estimate

that up to £200 billion of investment might be required by 2020 alone, in

the face of huge global demand for investment in energy infrastructure;

volatile commodities prices; and the ongoing effects of the financial

crisis.”

OFGEM (UK Gas & Electricity markets regulator) February 2010

41

Page 42: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

A growing number of countries cannot finance new infrastructure

| 42

EU / USA Brazil India UNBANKABLE

ILLUSTRATIVE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

IRR

%

Project IRR's vs Country Risk

Page 43: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

We now forecast a supply/demand gap of ~ 600 GW by 2015

43 Source: IEA, Oxford Economics, Aggreko

Demand CAGR 2004 - 2015

556 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.75% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00%

3.10% (22) (165) (311) (461) (614) (772) (933) (1,098) (1,267)

Net 3.20% 35 (108) (255) (404) (558) (715) (876) (1,041) (1,211)

Additional 3.50% 207 64 (82) (232) (385) (543) (704) (869) (1,038)

Capacity 3.75% 355 212 66 (84) (238) (395) (556) (721) (890)

CAGR 4.00% 506 363 217 67 (86) (244) (405) (570) (739)

2004 4.25% 661 518 372 222 69 (89) (250) (415) (584)

=>2015 4.50% 820 677 531 381 227 70 (91) (256) (425)

4.75% 983 840 693 543 390 233 71 (94) (263)

5.00% 1,149 1,006 860 710 556 399 238 73 (96)

Capacity deficit increasing annually by about 1% of global capacity / 50,000 MW

09

4.0% 07

4.9%

08

5.1%

Page 44: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Summary

Page 45: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)

Summary

45

• Strategies for both Local & International Power Projects are working

well

• Local business: geographic expansion in developing markets and

drive for growth in mature markets

• International Power Projects: capture as much of the ~50,000 MW

per year of additional capacity shortfall as we can; drive for scale &

operational efficiencies; build brand recognition and long-term

relationships with utilities

• As the only supplier with global reach, and having invested heavily to

capture economies of scale, Aggreko has sustainable competitive

advantage

• Aggreko has plenty of runway ahead it

Page 46: Introduction to Aggrekoir.aggreko.com/.../respres/2011/introduction-aggreko-2012.pdf · Introduction to Aggreko . ... – 200MW Japan, 190MW Argentina, 160MW Indonesia, 145MW (Gas)