Introduction to Risk AssessmentIntroduction to Risk Assessment

Training/workshop on Training/workshop on ““Earthquake Vulnerability and MultiEarthquake Vulnerability and Multi--Hazard Risk Assessment: Hazard Risk Assessment:

Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction EffortGeospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort””

Samjwal Ratna BajracharyaInternational Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)

Material prepared from Lorena Montoya, Paul Hofste, and Cess van Western, ITC

13 - 31 March 2006, Islamabad, Pakistan

Associated Institute of the

Learning objectivesLearning objectives

Basic components of risk assessmentBasic components of risk assessment

GIS based risk assessment procedureGIS based risk assessment procedure

Spatial data requirements for risk assessmentSpatial data requirements for risk assessment

Quantify the disaster losses based on databasesQuantify the disaster losses based on databases

ComponentsComponentsDisaster statisticsDisaster statisticsReasons for increaseReasons for increaseComponents of disaster risk managementComponents of disaster risk managementBasic formula of riskBasic formula of riskDefinitions of risk, hazards, vulnerabilityDefinitions of risk, hazards, vulnerabilitySpatial aspect of risk, hazards and vulnerabilitySpatial aspect of risk, hazards and vulnerability

Disasters, one after the otherDisasters, one after the other……

Earthquake Pakistan / India

Hurricanes Central America

Hurricane Katrina

Flooding Central Europe

Tsunami Asia

Flooding India

Cyclone Vietnam

Avian Flu

Conflicts

DisasterDisasterA serious disruption of the functioning of a A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own community or society to cope using its own

resources.resources.

DisasterDisasterDisasters can be at different magnitude:Disasters can be at different magnitude:

When does a traffic accident become a disasterWhen does a traffic accident become a disaster

Disasters can be at different scalesDisasters can be at different scalesIndividualIndividual--familyfamily--communitycommunity--municipalitymunicipality……. . worldworld

Disasters can be fast or slowDisasters can be fast or slowIs desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a Is desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a disaster? disaster?

Disasters can be predictable or unexpectedDisasters can be predictable or unexpectedfirework explosion, caffirework explosion, caféé fire, airplane crash, fire, airplane crash, animal diseases, floodinganimal diseases, flooding

Disaster typesDisaster typesExtraterrestrial Extraterrestrial

asteroid impactasteroid impact

Internal GeoInternal Geo--dynamic processesdynamic processesEarthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruptionEarthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption

External geodynamic processesExternal geodynamic processesLandslide, soil erosion, land degradationLandslide, soil erosion, land degradation

HydrometeorologicalHydrometeorologicalFloods, Tropical storms, droughtFloods, Tropical storms, drought

Ecological / environmentalEcological / environmentalPollution, crop disease, Pollution, crop disease,

EpidemicsEpidemicsSARS, HIV / AIDS, Avian FluSARS, HIV / AIDS, Avian Flu

TechnologicalTechnological(Industrial) accidents(Industrial) accidents

ConflictsConflictsWar, land mines, terrorismWar, land mines, terrorism

Hazards are purely natural

Hazards are purely man-made

Disaster statisticsDisaster statistics

Disaster statisticsDisaster statistics

Increasing vulnerabilityIncreasing vulnerabilityongoingongoing trends trends

PopulationPopulation growthgrowthclimateclimate variabilityvariability and and climateclimate changechangeMigration of population to citiesMigration of population to citiesHigher vulnerability of industrialized societiesHigher vulnerability of industrialized societiesincreasedincreased environmentalenvironmental degradationdegradationDensely populated communitiesDensely populated communitiesMore people living on marginal landsMore people living on marginal landsGreater unplanned settlements due to land scarcityGreater unplanned settlements due to land scarcityHigh risk due to natural and manmade hazardsHigh risk due to natural and manmade hazards

Disaster risk managementDisaster management can be defined as the Disaster management can be defined as the effective organization, direction and utilization effective organization, direction and utilization of available counterof available counter--disaster resourcesdisaster resourcesThe modern view is that there must be preThe modern view is that there must be pre--disaster mitigation measures to avoid or disaster mitigation measures to avoid or reduce impact of disasters. Prereduce impact of disasters. Pre--disaster disaster measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are called called Risk ManagementRisk Management

Disaster management cycledisaster preventiondisaster preventiondisaster preparedness disaster preparedness disaster reliefdisaster reliefRehabilitationRehabilitationReconstructionReconstruction

Traditional approach. Is it really a cycle?

Key elements of Disaster ManagementKey elements of Disaster ManagementPre-disaster phases Post-disaster phases

Risk Identification

Mitigation Risk Transfer Preparedness Emergency response

Rehabilitation and Reconstruction

Hazard Assessment

Physical/structural mitigation works

Insurance/ reinsurance

Early warning systems. Communication systems

Humanitarian assistance / rescue

Rehabilitation/reconstruction of damaged critical infrastructure

Vulnerability assessment

Land-use planning and building codes

Financial market instruments

Monitoring and forecasting

Clean-up, temporary repairs and restoration of services

Macroeconomic and budget management

Risk Assessment

Economic incentives

Privatization of public services with safety regulations

Shelter facilities Emergency planning

Damage assessment

Revitalization of affected sectors (exports,tourism)

GIS mapping and scenario building

Education, training and awareness

Calamity funds

Contingency planning (utility companies / public services)

Mobilization of recovery resources

Incorporation of disaster mitigation components in reconstruction

•Sources: Worldbank, DMF & USAID

RiskRisk

RiskRisk is the likelihood or probability of a is the likelihood or probability of a hazard event of a certain magnitude hazard event of a certain magnitude occurring. Risks are measures of the threat of occurring. Risks are measures of the threat of hazards.hazards.

--ADPCADPC

• Risk is the actual exposure of something of human value to a hazard. Often regarded as the product of probability and loss..

-ADPC

RiskRisk

RiskRisk is the exposure or the chance of loss due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. It may be expressed mathematically as the probability that a hazard impact will occur multiplied by the consequences of that impact.

--ADPCADPC

• Note: Definitions of risk in the hazards literature vary from those that equate risk with probability to those that see risk as the product of a probability and a particular kind of impact occurring

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT

The most complicated simple formulaThe most complicated simple formula

HazardHazard = Probability of event with a certain magnitude= Probability of event with a certain magnitude•• Triggering mechanismTriggering mechanism•• Type of event Type of event •• Magnitude: Volume, domino effect, distance, duration, speed Magnitude: Volume, domino effect, distance, duration, speed

etcetc

VulnerabilityVulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of:= Degree of damage. Function of:•• magnitude of event, and magnitude of event, and •• type of elements at risktype of elements at risk

AmountAmount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g.= Quantification of the elements at risk e.g.•• Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.•• Loss of function or economic activitiesLoss of function or economic activities•• Number of peopleNumber of people

Hazard, Vulnerability and elements at riskHazard, Vulnerability and elements at risk

Natural hazard (H):Natural hazard (H): the probability of occurrence of a the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon within a specified period of potentially damaging phenomenon within a specified period of time and within a given area.time and within a given area.

Vulnerability (V):Vulnerability (V): the degree of loss to a given element or the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements at risk (see below) resulting from the set of elements at risk (see below) resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss).expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss).

Elements at risk Elements at risk the population, properties, economic activities, the population, properties, economic activities, including public services, etc. at risk in a given area.including public services, etc. at risk in a given area.

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNTRISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT

Hazard= Hazard= PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitudePROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude

Vulnerability = Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of:Degree of damage. Function of:•• magnitude of event, and magnitude of event, and •• type of elements at risktype of elements at risk

Amount = Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.gQuantification of the elements at risk e.g..•• Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.•• Loss of function or economic activitiesLoss of function or economic activities•• Number of peopleNumber of people

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITYCAPACITY

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

Capacity = Capacity = expresses the positive expresses the positive managerial and operational resources and managerial and operational resources and procedures for reducing risk factorsprocedures for reducing risk factors

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Example:Example:

10 years RP

US $ 50.000

Hazard = probability within a given period

= 0.1 / year

Risk = hazard * vulnerability * amount

= 0.1 * 1 *50.000 = 5.000 US $

V = 1

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Example:Example:

10 years RP

US $ 50.000

Risk = hazard * vulnerability * amount

= 0.1 * (

(0.5*200.000)+

(0.1*100.000)+

(1 * 50.000))

= 0.1 * 160.000 = 16.000 $

V = 1

V = 0.1

US $ 100.000US $ 200.000

V = 0.5

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

Example:Example:

2 years RP10 years RP

50 years RP

US $ 50.000

Hazard = 0.5 * 0.01 * 50.000 +

0.1 * 0.1 * 50.000 +

0.02 * 1 * 50.000 =

= 250 + 500 + 1000

= 1750 US $

V = 0.01

V = 0.1

V = 1

10000

0

1

0

0.020.1

0.5

1000

Risk curve

Elements at riskVulnerability

Consequence

Probabilityof failure

For allcrediblehazards

=N

iiii VEPRisk )()()(∑

In realityIn reality

Example:Example:

RP = ??

Price is ???

Risk = hazard * vulnerability * amount

= ? * ? * ? = unknown

What is needed:

hazard assessment , elements at risk mapping, vulnerability assessment, cost estimation.

V = ????

Depth = ????

Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Hazard, vulnerability and risk?Example:Example:

US $ 50.000

Risk = hazard * vulnerability * amount

= 0.1*((0.5*200.000)+(0.1*100.000)+(1*50.000))

= 0.1*160.000 = 16.000 $

V = 1

V = 0.1

US $ 100.000

US $ 200.000

V = 0.5

10 years RP

Landslide risk assessmentLandslide risk assessmentUS $ 50.000

V = 1

V = 0.1

US $ 100.000

US $ 200.000

V = 0.5

10 years RP

US $ 50.000

P=0.5 V = 0.01

P=0.1 V = 0.1

P=0.02 V = 1

Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability * AmountRisk = Hazard * Vulnerability * AmountVery complicated topicVery complicated topic

2 years RP10 years RP

50 years RP

US $ 50.000

V = 0.01

V = 0.1

V = 1

100000

1

0

0.020.1

0.5

1000

Risk curve

In practice this is very complicated:• Quantifying probability• Mapping all elements at risk• Quantifying vulnerability• Multi-hazard risk assessment

Risk is a spatial problemRisk is a spatial problemHazard:Hazard:How much water How much water when and where?when and where?Elements at risk:Elements at risk:Which elements Which elements where, and how where, and how many/much ?many/much ?Vulnerability:Vulnerability:How much water How much water where which where which elements at risk are?elements at risk are?

Risk is a multidisciplinary spatial problemRisk is a multidisciplinary spatial problem

Hazard assessment:Hazard assessment:done by earth scientists, done by earth scientists, hydrologists, hydrologists, volcanologistsvolcanologists, , seismologists etc. seismologists etc. Elements at risk:Elements at risk:done by geographers, urban done by geographers, urban planners, civil engineersplanners, civil engineersCost estimation:Cost estimation:done by economistsdone by economistsVulnerability:Vulnerability:done by structural engineers, civil done by structural engineers, civil engineersengineersRisk assessment:Risk assessment:Done by GIS expertsDone by GIS experts

Vulnerabilitymap

Risk map

Hazard map

Cost information

Elements at risk

Aerial photographs

Satellite images

GPS

Statistical tables

Risk assessment needs GIS

Risk assessment Risk assessment

Source: OAS , Steve Bender (2003) Source: OAS , Steve Bender (2003)

Risk assessment in basic formRisk assessment in basic formHazard footprint EaR footprint

Risk footprint

Characteristics:•Type of event•Magnitude•Speed

Characteristics:•Type of EaR•Vulnerability

Information requiredInformation requiredFor hazard assessmentFor hazard assessment

Scientific studies/maps, longScientific studies/maps, long--term monitoring, historicterm monitoring, historicreports on past incidence of hazards, in particular thereports on past incidence of hazards, in particular thelocation, frequency and severity of the eventslocation, frequency and severity of the eventsUnderstanding of factors influencing hazard occurrenceUnderstanding of factors influencing hazard occurrence

For vulnerability assessmentFor vulnerability assessmentHazard characteristics (from the hazard assessment)Hazard characteristics (from the hazard assessment)Characteristics of the element/system of interest:Characteristics of the element/system of interest:location/site, structural strength/quality, content exposurelocation/site, structural strength/quality, content exposureEnvironmental qualityEnvironmental quality

For risk assessmentFor risk assessmentSame as for vulnerability assessment, plus specific damageSame as for vulnerability assessment, plus specific damage/ loss frequency estimates for elements at risk/ loss frequency estimates for elements at riskSpecific hazard scenarioSpecific hazard scenario

Risk managementRisk management

Risk management

Risk controlRisk assessment

Risk evaluationRisk analysis

Risk estimationHazard identification

Consequence analysis

Frequency analysis

Risk calculation

Elements at risk

Vulnerability

TreatmentMitigationPlanningMeasuresMonitoring

Tolerable riskAcceptable riskClient decisionType

MagnitudeTravel distanceRate of movement

Risk concepts and definitionsRisk concepts and definitionsRisk estimation:Risk estimation: the process used to produce a measure of the level of health, the process used to produce a measure of the level of health, property, or environmental risks being analysed. Risk estimationproperty, or environmental risks being analysed. Risk estimation contains the contains the followings steps: frequency analysis, consequence analysis and tfollowings steps: frequency analysis, consequence analysis and their integration.heir integration.Risk analysis:Risk analysis: the use of available information to estimate the risk to indivithe use of available information to estimate the risk to individuals or duals or populations, property, or the environment, from hazards. Risk anpopulations, property, or the environment, from hazards. Risk analysis generally alysis generally contains the following steps: scope definition, hazard identificcontains the following steps: scope definition, hazard identification, and risk ation, and risk estimation.estimation.Risk evaluation:Risk evaluation: the stage at which values and judgements enter the decision the stage at which values and judgements enter the decision process, explicitly or implicitly, by including consideration ofprocess, explicitly or implicitly, by including consideration of the importance of the the importance of the estimated risks and the associated social, environmental, and ecestimated risks and the associated social, environmental, and economic onomic consequences, in order to identify a range of alternatives for mconsequences, in order to identify a range of alternatives for managing the risks.anaging the risks.Risk assessment:Risk assessment: the process of risk analysis and risks evaluation.the process of risk analysis and risks evaluation.Risk control or risk treatment:Risk control or risk treatment: the process of decision making for managing risks, the process of decision making for managing risks, and the implementation, or enforcement of risk mitigation measurand the implementation, or enforcement of risk mitigation measures and the rees and the re--evaluation of its effectiveness from time to time, using the resevaluation of its effectiveness from time to time, using the results of risk ults of risk assessment as one input.assessment as one input.Risk management:Risk management: the complete process of risk assessment and risk control (or the complete process of risk assessment and risk control (or risk treatment).risk treatment).

Risk analysisRisk analysisThe use of available information to estimate the risk to The use of available information to estimate the risk to individuals or populations, property or the environment, from individuals or populations, property or the environment, from hazards. hazards. Risk analyses generally contain the following steps: Risk analyses generally contain the following steps:

definition of scope, definition of scope, danger (threat) identification, danger (threat) identification, estimation of probability of occurrence to estimate hazard, estimation of probability of occurrence to estimate hazard, evaluation of the vulnerability of the element(s) at risk,evaluation of the vulnerability of the element(s) at risk,consequence identification, and consequence identification, and risk estimation. risk estimation.

Qualitative risk analysis:Qualitative risk analysis: An analysis which uses word form, An analysis which uses word form, descriptive or numeric rating scales to describe the magnitude descriptive or numeric rating scales to describe the magnitude of potential consequences and the likelihood that those of potential consequences and the likelihood that those consequences will occur.consequences will occur.Quantitative risk analysis:Quantitative risk analysis: An analysis based on numerical An analysis based on numerical values of the probability, vulnerability and consequences, and values of the probability, vulnerability and consequences, and resulting in a numerical value of the risk.resulting in a numerical value of the risk.

Risk typesRisk typesIndividual risk:Individual risk: the risk of fatality or injury to any identifiable (named) the risk of fatality or injury to any identifiable (named) individual who live within the zone impacted by the landslide; oindividual who live within the zone impacted by the landslide; or follows a r follows a particular pattern of life that might subject him or her to the particular pattern of life that might subject him or her to the consequences of the landslide.consequences of the landslide.Societal risk:Societal risk: the risk of multiple fatalities or injuries in society as a the risk of multiple fatalities or injuries in society as a whole: one where society would have to carry the burden of a lanwhole: one where society would have to carry the burden of a landslide dslide causing a number of deaths, injury, financial, environmental, ancausing a number of deaths, injury, financial, environmental, and other d other losses.losses.

Acceptable risk:Acceptable risk: a risk for which, for the purpose of life or work, we are a risk for which, for the purpose of life or work, we are prepared to accept as it is with no regard to its management. Soprepared to accept as it is with no regard to its management. Society ciety does not generally consider expenditure in further reducing suchdoes not generally consider expenditure in further reducing such risks risks justifiable.justifiable.Tolerable risk:Tolerable risk: a risk that society is willing to live with so as to secure a risk that society is willing to live with so as to secure certain net benefits in the confidence that it is being properlycertain net benefits in the confidence that it is being properly controlled, controlled, kept under review and further reduced as and when possible.kept under review and further reduced as and when possible.

E. C

astellanos, N

ov. 2004

MITIGABLEMITIGABLE

CONTROLLABLECONTROLLABLE

INCONTROLLABLEINCONTROLLABLE

ACCEPTED

ACCEPTED

RISKRISK

CATEGORIES OF RISKCATEGORIES OF RISK

HA

ZA

RD

HA

ZA

RD

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

Elements at riskElements at risk

VulnerabilityVulnerabilityVulnerability (V):Vulnerability (V): the degree of loss to a given element or the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements at risk resulting from the occurrence of a set of elements at risk resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is expressed on natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss).a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss).

Quantitative definitions of VulnerabilityQuantitative definitions of Vulnerability

““A communityA community’’s s probability probability of suffering human or of suffering human or material damage if exposed to a hazard, material damage if exposed to a hazard, according to the according to the degree of fragilitydegree of fragility of its elements of its elements (infrastructure, livelihood, production activities, (infrastructure, livelihood, production activities, organizational degree, early warning or alert organizational degree, early warning or alert systems, political and institutional development, systems, political and institutional development, etc.) (Caballeros et al., 2000).etc.) (Caballeros et al., 2000).

ProbaProba--bilitybility of of sufferinsufferin

g g damagdamag

ee

““level of gravenesslevel of graveness up to which a community, a up to which a community, a structure, a service or a geographic area can be structure, a service or a geographic area can be affected or disturbed by the impact of a certain affected or disturbed by the impact of a certain hazardhazard”” (Chardon and (Chardon and GonzGonzáálezlez, 2002)., 2002).

““the the degree of lossdegree of loss to a given element or set of to a given element or set of elements within the area affected by a hazard. It elements within the area affected by a hazard. It is expressed on a scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (total is expressed on a scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (total loss)loss)”” (UNDRO, 1979).(UNDRO, 1979).

Degree Degree of lossof loss

““the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and envthe conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors ironmental factors or processes, which increase the or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a communitysusceptibility of a community to the impact of hazardsto the impact of hazards””(UN/ISDR, 2004).(UN/ISDR, 2004).

““predisposition, susceptibilitypredisposition, susceptibility or physical, economical, political or social feasibility of a or physical, economical, political or social feasibility of a community to be affected or of suffering damages in case a destacommunity to be affected or of suffering damages in case a destabilizing phenomenon bilizing phenomenon of natural or human origin occurs (Cardona, 2001b).of natural or human origin occurs (Cardona, 2001b).

““how easilyhow easily the exposed people, physical objects and activities may be affethe exposed people, physical objects and activities may be affected in the cted in the short or long termshort or long term”” (Davidson, 1997).(Davidson, 1997).

““being prone tobeing prone to or susceptible to damage or injuryor susceptible to damage or injury”” and redefined it as and redefined it as ““the the characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazardresist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard”” ((BlaikieBlaikie et al., 1994).et al., 1994).

““propensitypropensity of things to be damaged by a hazardof things to be damaged by a hazard”” (Coburn, 1994).(Coburn, 1994).

””internal risk factor of a subject or exposed system to a hazard,internal risk factor of a subject or exposed system to a hazard, corresponds to its corresponds to its intrinsic predispositionintrinsic predisposition to be affected or susceptible of suffering a lossto be affected or susceptible of suffering a loss”” (Cardona, 1993).(Cardona, 1993).

““to be susceptibleto be susceptible of suffering damage and having difficulties recovering from it.of suffering damage and having difficulties recovering from it.Inflexibility or inability to adaptInflexibility or inability to adapt”” ((MaskreyMaskrey, 1993)., 1993).

““condition in which human settlements or buildings are in dangercondition in which human settlements or buildings are in danger due to the proximity of a due to the proximity of a hazard, the quality of the building materials or bothhazard, the quality of the building materials or both”” ((CunyCuny, 1983)., 1983).

InflexibilityInflexibility or inability to adaptor inability to adapt”” ((MaskreyMaskrey, 1993)., 1993).

““A communityA community’’s s inabilityinability to absorb, through autoto absorb, through auto--adjustment, the effects of a certain adjustment, the effects of a certain change in itschange in its’’ environment. Change inflexibility (environment. Change inflexibility (WilchesWilches--ChauxChaux, 1988)., 1988).

Qualitative definitions of VulnerabilityQualitative definitions of Vulnerability

LossesLosses

Disaster losses include the Disaster losses include the direct impactsdirect impacts like like the loss of life, housing and infrastructure as the loss of life, housing and infrastructure as well as well as indirect impactsindirect impacts on production in on production in utility services, transport, labor supplies, utility services, transport, labor supplies, suppliers and markets. Secondary losses suppliers and markets. Secondary losses include impacts on macroeconomic variables include impacts on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, balance of such as economic growth, balance of payments, public spending and inflation. The payments, public spending and inflation. The impacts are felt more by developing impacts are felt more by developing countries.countries.

Specific and total riskSpecific and total riskSpecific risk (Specific risk (RsRs):): the expected degree of loss due to the expected degree of loss due to a particular natural phenomenon. It may be a particular natural phenomenon. It may be expressed by the product of H, V and costs C.expressed by the product of H, V and costs C.

RsRs = H * V * C= H * V * C

Total risk (Total risk (RtRt):): the expected number of lives lost, the expected number of lives lost, persons injured, damage to property, or disruption of persons injured, damage to property, or disruption of economic activity due to a all natural phenomena. It economic activity due to a all natural phenomena. It is therefore the sum of the specific risks for all return is therefore the sum of the specific risks for all return periods and all types of events.periods and all types of events.

SUM( SUM( RsRs = H * V * C)= H * V * C)For all elements at riskFor all elements at risk

For all magnitudesFor all magnitudesFor all hazard typesFor all hazard types

Loss estimation methodsLoss estimation methodsFreely available applications:Freely available applications:

RADIUS: Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas RADIUS: Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters (against Seismic Disasters (GeoHazardsGeoHazards International, 1999)International, 1999)HAZUSHAZUS--MH (FEMA, 2003)MH (FEMA, 2003)Adaptations of HAZUS to particular countriesAdaptations of HAZUS to particular countries

e.g.Taiwane.g.Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES)Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES)AGSO Cities Project (Australia)AGSO Cities Project (Australia)

Commercial or nonCommercial or non--free applications:free applications:NHEMATIS (Canada)NHEMATIS (Canada)MRQuakeMRQuake, , MRStormMRStorm and and MRFloodMRFlood ((MunichReMunichRe))RiskLinkRiskLink--ALM, ALM, RiskLinkRiskLink--DLM, DLM, RiskBrowserRiskBrowser and RMSand RMS--DataWizardDataWizard (RMS)(RMS)CLASIC/2CLASIC/2, , CATRADERCATRADER, , CATMAP/2CATMAP/2, , AIRProfilerAIRProfiler, , ALERTALERT(AIR)(AIR)

HazusHazus MHMH

Risk & vulnerability indexesRisk & vulnerability indexes1) The World Bank Hotspots (hazard and vulnerability information1) The World Bank Hotspots (hazard and vulnerability information))2) UNDP Disaster Risk Index (DRI)2) UNDP Disaster Risk Index (DRI)

http://www.undp.org/bcpr/disred/rdr.htmhttp://www.undp.org/bcpr/disred/rdr.htm3) World Economic Forum Environmental Sustainability Indicators3) World Economic Forum Environmental Sustainability Indicators

http://http://www.weforumwww.weforum .org/ .org/ pdfpdf /Gcr/GCR_2003_2004/GCI_Chapter.pdf/Gcr/GCR_2003_2004/GCI_Chapter.pdf4) International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent So4) International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies cieties

(IFRC) World Disaster Report(IFRC) World Disaster Reporthttp://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2003/http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2003/

5) Asian Disaster Research Center Global Unique Disaster Identif5) Asian Disaster Research Center Global Unique Disaster Identifier ier Number (GLIDE)Number (GLIDE)http://http://glidenumber.netglidenumber.net//

6) Web6) Web--based VATA tool location information sponsored by the OAS, U.S. based VATA tool location information sponsored by the OAS, U.S. NOAA, and the Caribbean Development Bank (NOAA, and the Caribbean Development Bank (www.csc.noaa.govwww.csc.noaa.gov//vatavata))

7 ) CRED 7 ) CRED -- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of DisastersCentre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disastershttp://http://www.cred.bewww.cred.be//

The risk matrixThe risk matrix

Risk matrixRisk matrix

Risk matrixRisk matrix