introduction to technical analysis · 2021. 3. 22. · technical analysis is the study of market...
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Introduction to Technical Analysis
Frayne Olson, PhDCrop Economist/Marketing Specialist
Director – Burdick Center for [email protected] 701-231-7377 (o) 701-715-3673 (c)
NDSU Extension ServiceND Agricultural Experiment Station
Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics
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The Role of Futures Markets• The U.S. commodity futures markets are very
large, liquid and public markets.• “Large Market” means there are many buyers
and sellers.• “Liquid Market” means there is a large trading
volume, it is easy to enter and exit and the cost of using the market is low.
• “Public Market” means the information about prices and trading volumes are easy to access for a wide range of people.
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The Role of Futures Markets• “Price Discovery”
– What is the value of the commodity in the future?– The cash markets use the futures market as a
common starting point for price negotiation (bids and asks).
– Futures market prices are sometimes used as a proxy for a national average price.
• “Risk Transfer” or “Risk Shifting”– Hedgers: attempt to reduce price risk.– Speculators: attempt to profit from price
movements (accepting risk).
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What is a Futures Contract?• Futures markets trade predefined
standardized contracts for the delivery of grain in the future.
• The crop quantity, quality, delivery location and delivery time are all fixed and non-negotiable.
• PRICE is the only contract provision that is negotiable.
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What is a Futures Contract?• You can buy a contract or sell a contract
without owning any commodity. The contract is an agreement for delivery in the future.
• Contracts are rarely fully executed (physical delivery made), the are off-set.– “Physical delivery” is discouraged.– Futures contract is converted to a delivery
contract.
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What is a Futures Contract?• Every trading day, a price is “negotiated”
for the delivery of the specific commodity (Corn, Soybean, Spring Wheat, …) at different times in the future.
• The near-by futures month is the one closest to today’s date.
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Information in Futures Market
DTN Prophet X – 03-12-21 pm
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Futures Contract for Soybean• Traded on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)• One contract = 5,000 bu. (136.08 MT)• Delivery Months: September, November,
January, March, May, July and August• Daily Trading Limits:
– $ 0.70 / bu. (expanded to $ 1.05 / bu.)– Periodically adjusted based upon price levels
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Futures Contract for Corn• Traded on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)• One contract = 5,000 bu. (127.01 MT)• Delivery Months: September, December,
March, May and July• Daily Trading Limits:
– $ 0.25 / bu. (expanded to $ 0.40 / bu.)– Periodically adjusted based upon price levels
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Futures Contract for Soft Red Winter Wheat
• Traded on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)• One contract = 5,000 bu. (136.08 MT)• Delivery Months: September, December,
March, May and July• Daily Trading Limits:
– $ 0.40 / bu. (expanded to $ 0.60 / bu.)– Periodically adjusted based upon price levels
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Futures Contract for Hard Red Winter Wheat
• Traded on Chicago Board of Trade– The former Kansas City Board of Trade
• One contract = 5,000 bu. (136.08 MT)• Delivery Months: September, December,
March, May and July• Daily Trading Limits:
– $ 0.40 / bu. (expanded to $ 0.60)– Periodically adjusted based upon price levels
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Futures Contract for Hard Red Spring Wheat
• Traded on Minneapolis Grain Exchange• One contract = 5,000 bu. (136.08 MT)• Delivery Months: September, December,
March, May and July• Daily Trading Limits:
– $ 0.60 / bu. (expanded to $ 1.10 / bu.)– Periodically adjusted based upon price levels
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Technical or Chart Analysis• “Technical Analysis is the study of market
action, primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends. The term market action includes the principal source of information available to the technician – price, volume, and open interest.”
• Focus is on the Futures Market NOT the Cash Market.
John J. Murphy – “Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets
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Basic Charting – Daily Bar Charts
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Basic Charting – Daily Chart
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Basic Charting – Daily Chart
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
Price at openingof the trading
period.
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Basic Charting – Daily Chart
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
Highest price during the
trading period.
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Basic Charting – Daily Chart
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
Lowest price during the
trading period.
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Basic Charting – Daily Chart
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
Price at the close of the
trading period.
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Basic Charting – Daily Chart
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Trend Lines• Prices rarely continue to move only in one
direction for an extended period of time.
• Identifying general price trends is a valuable tool.
• Identifying changes in price trends can be extremely valuable, but also very difficult to predict consistently.
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Trend Lines• “An uptrend remains intact as long as each
successive intermediate high is higher than those proceeding it and each reaction stops at a higher point than earlier reactions.”
• “A downtrend prevails when each intermediate decline carries prices to a lower level while intervening rallies fall short of earlier rallies.”
Technical Analysis – NCR Pub. 217
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Basic Charting – Up Trend
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Basic Charting – Up Trend
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT May 2021 Wheat Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Basic Charting – Down Trend
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT May 2021 Wheat Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Support/Resistance Levels• Support/Resistance Levels – a price area
where a market has a history of meeting selling or buying pressure.
• A support area is formed when a price rally falters and falls to previous (old) highs.
• A resistance area is formed when a price decline reverses and rises to previous (old) lows.
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Basic Charting – Support Levels
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Basic Charting – Resistance Levels
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Basic Charting – Support & Resistance Levels
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Volume and Open Interest• Volume – the amount of trading activity
associated with a specific market. Commodity futures and options volume is based on the number of contracts exchanged.
• Open Interest – the number of options or futures contracts that have been opened and not yet closed out. Open interest gives a good indication of the contract’s liquidity.
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Basic Charting – Volume
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Basic Charting – Open Interest
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Stochastics
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Moving Averages• Simple Moving Average 5 Day = (Sum of closing prices for previous 5
trading days) ÷ 5
• Common Moving Average Time Periods: 5 Day, 10 Day, 20 Day, 50 Day, and 90 Day
• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) Most charting programs calculate EMA
automatically
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Moving Average Crossovers• A down turn in prices is indicated by a
“short term” moving average dropping below a “long term” moving average.
• An upturn in prices is indicated by a “short term” moving average rising above a “long term” moving average.
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Moving Average Crosses(5-10-15 day)
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Moving Average Crosses(20-40-90 Day)
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Other Indicators• Bollinger Bands
– Indicator of volatility and overbought/oversold• RSI – Relative Strength Indicator
– Indicator of “overbought” or “oversold”• MACD – Moving Average
Convergence/Divergence Indicator– Indicator of price “momentum” or rate of change
• Price Gaps• Others!
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Bollinger Bands• An indicator that measures volatility and
overbought/oversold market conditions• Calculation:− A simple moving average is calculated (ex. 20
days)− The Standard Deviation in prices is calculated
for this same period− A multiplier factor is chosen (ex. 2.0)− The standard deviation is multiplied by the factor
and then added to and subtracted from the moving average
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Bollinger Bands• This range becomes the basis for targeting
buying or selling opportunities.− If daily prices move above the upper band, a
price top is indicated.− If daily prices move below the lower band, a
price bottom is indicated.− If daily prices trade between the lower bands, a
down trend is indicated.− If daily prices trade between the upper bands, a
up trend is indicated.
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Bollinger Bands
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Relative Strength Index - RSI• Indicator of “overbought” or “oversold”
conditions• Calculation Steps:
– Choose time period (example: 14 days)– Sum all of the price increases during time
period and calculate average of increases.– Sum all the price decreases during time
period and calculate average of decreases.– RS = Avg. of Increases / Avg. of Decreases– RSI = 100 – {100/(1+RS)}
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Relative Strength Index - RSI
• When RSI reaches low levels (ex. 30), low is forming and tendency for prices to begin increasing.
• When RSE reaches high levels (ex. 70), high is forming and tendency for prices to begin decreasing
• If time frame is longer, the mid point (ex. 50) becomes the reference point.
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Relative Strength Index
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Moving Average Convergence/Divergence
MACD• Indicator of price “momentum” or rate of change• Calculation Steps:
– Exponential moving average of short time period
– Exponential moving average of longer time period
– Exponential moving average of difference between the two time periods
– Example: 12, 26, [10]
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Moving Average Convergence/Divergence
MACD• MACD graphic has two lines and one
histogram− First line is difference between short term and
long term exponential moving average (blue)− Second line is the exponential moving average
of the difference (red)− Histogram is difference between two lines
− When the two moving averages (histogram) converge, the trend may be coming to an end.
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Moving Average Convergence/Divergence
MACD• Used as a “trend filter” and/or as trading signal
− Trend filter – Using MACD and Moving Average to compare alternative indicator signals− When trends are consistent (bullish or bearish) trades
can be made with greater confidence− When trends are inconsistent (conflicting) may not want
to enter or exit trades− Trade Signal – Histogram can be used as indicator
of trend reversal− Should use in combination with other trend
indicators!
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MACD
DTN Prophet-X – CBOT Nov. 2021 Soybean Futures (03-12-21 pm)
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Questions?