introduction to the fire effects tradeoff model

Introduction to theIntroduction to theFire Effects Tradeoff ModelFire Effects Tradeoff Model

Mark D. SchaafMark D. SchaafAir Sciences Inc.Air Sciences Inc.Portland, OregonPortland, Oregon

OutlineOutline

• Overview of FETMOverview of FETM• CapabilitiesCapabilities• ““Tree Diagram” StructureTree Diagram” Structure• Example OutputsExample Outputs• Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

OverviewOverview• Landscape-scale disturbance modelLandscape-scale disturbance model• Designed to simulate the long-term Designed to simulate the long-term effectseffects of management activities and of management activities and natural disturbances on vegetation:natural disturbances on vegetation:

• Vegetation compositionVegetation composition• Wildland fire acres burnedWildland fire acres burned• Residue loading and consumptionResidue loading and consumption• Smoke productionSmoke production• Fire and fuel treatment costsFire and fuel treatment costs

• Also designed to demonstrate Also designed to demonstrate tradeoffstradeoffs between different types of disturbances between different types of disturbances (for example, prescribed fire vs. wildfire (for example, prescribed fire vs. wildfire acres and emissions)acres and emissions)

• Focus is on fire behavior and effects (by Focus is on fire behavior and effects (by vegetation class, and for the entire vegetation class, and for the entire landscape)landscape)

OverviewOverview

• Stochastic—Number of fire starts per Stochastic—Number of fire starts per year treated as random variableyear treated as random variable

• Dynamic—Deals with annual changes Dynamic—Deals with annual changes over any future time period, 1 to ~300 over any future time period, 1 to ~300 yearsyears

• Non spatial—Results are tracked by Non spatial—Results are tracked by vegetation class (FCC), without regard vegetation class (FCC), without regard to locationto location

OverviewOverview

• Public domain softwarePublic domain software• Designed for use by any organization Designed for use by any organization

(federal, state, private)(federal, state, private)

OverviewOverview

CapabilitiesCapabilities

• Incorporates use of multi-layer fuel Incorporates use of multi-layer fuel characteristic classes (FCC) to describe characteristic classes (FCC) to describe current/future vegetationcurrent/future vegetation

• Single or multiple disturbances:Single or multiple disturbances:Management activities (e.g., thinning)Management activities (e.g., thinning)Insects & diseaseInsects & diseaseFireFireSuccession (absence of disturbance)Succession (absence of disturbance)


• Comprehensive treatment of fireComprehensive treatment of fire• Incorporates state-of-the-science models:Incorporates state-of-the-science models:

CONSUMECONSUMENFDRS CalculationsNFDRS CalculationsFire type algorithm used in FARSITEFire type algorithm used in FARSITEPC Historical Analysis (PCHA) modelPC Historical Analysis (PCHA) modelInteragency Initial Attack Assessment Interagency Initial Attack Assessment

(IIAA) model(IIAA) model


• Allows management activities to be Allows management activities to be scheduled year-by-year.scheduled year-by-year.

• Links weather/surface loading/stand Links weather/surface loading/stand characteristics tocharacteristics to fire behavior and fire behavior and number of wildfire acresnumber of wildfire acres

• Allows user to look at single-sequence Allows user to look at single-sequence fire effects, and fire effects, and expectedexpected fire effects fire effects (average of multiple sequences)(average of multiple sequences)


• Easy to use (with good team selection)Easy to use (with good team selection)• Fast run timesFast run times• Produces multiple graphs and tablesProduces multiple graphs and tables• Capability to “cut and paste” results into Capability to “cut and paste” results into

documentsdocuments

• Windows-basedWindows-based• Expandable index tree format Expandable index tree format

on left-hand sideon left-hand side• Data input and output forms Data input and output forms

displayed on right-hand sidedisplayed on right-hand side

Tree Diagram StructureTree Diagram Structure

MethodologyMethodology

Collect DataCollect Data

Parameterize FETMParameterize FETM

Define ScenariosDefine Scenarios

Run ModelRun Model

Report ResultsReport Results

Current VegetationDescription

HistoricalFire Data

Historical Weather

Rx Fire Treatment Schedule





Run ModelRun Model


Define FCCs

Map FCCs to Fire Behavior

Models

Define Weather Classes

Calculate Crown

Loading

Populate Effects

Matrices

Calculate Fire Type

by Weather Class





Run ModelRun Model


Select Disturbances

Select Simulation

Period

Select Number of Iterations

SelectPollutants

Select FCCs

Select Economic

Assumptions





Run ModelRun Model


Example OutputsExample Outputs

Alternative 1: No Prescribed Fire

Northern Mixed Chaparral

Density 1Density 2Density 3Density 4Density 5


Alternative 2: 7,500 Chaparral Acres Per Year




Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

• State-of-the-science model that can be State-of-the-science model that can be used to predict future landscapes and used to predict future landscapes and effects under different management effects under different management strategies and fire protection policiesstrategies and fire protection policies

• Similar in capability to other landscape Similar in capability to other landscape models (e.g., SIMPPLLE, VDDT), but models (e.g., SIMPPLLE, VDDT), but addresses fire effects in a more addresses fire effects in a more comprehensive mannercomprehensive manner

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

• The model, users guide, and technical The model, users guide, and technical documentation are available from Jim documentation are available from Jim Russell, Region 6 Air Program Manager Russell, Region 6 Air Program Manager (([email protected]).

• By April, FETM will be available for By April, FETM will be available for download from a web page linked to the download from a web page linked to the Region 6 Air Quality web site.Region 6 Air Quality web site.

mailto:[email protected]

Introduction to the Introduction to the

Smoke Impact Spreadsheet Smoke Impact Spreadsheet (SIS) Model(SIS) Model

Mark D. SchaafMark D. SchaafAir Sciences Inc.Air Sciences Inc.Portland, OregonPortland, Oregon

OutlineOutline• OverviewOverview• CapabilitiesCapabilities• Example Screen ShotsExample Screen Shots• Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

Overview of SISOverview of SIS• Simple-to-use, screening level Simple-to-use, screening level

emissions and dispersion modeling emissions and dispersion modeling system.system.

• Development sponsored by USDA Development sponsored by USDA Forest Service Region 1 Air Quality Forest Service Region 1 Air Quality Program (Ann Acheson, Bob Hammer)Program (Ann Acheson, Bob Hammer)

Overview of SISOverview of SIS• Uses state-of-the-art modeling Uses state-of-the-art modeling

techniques (e.g., FOFEM5 emissions techniques (e.g., FOFEM5 emissions model, CALPUFF dispersion model). model, CALPUFF dispersion model).

• Goal to minimize development costs Goal to minimize development costs by using existing tools rather than by using existing tools rather than creating an entirely new application.creating an entirely new application.

Overview of SISOverview of SIS• Microsoft Excel provides user interfaceMicrosoft Excel provides user interface• First Order Fire Effects Model First Order Fire Effects Model

(FOFEM5) provides front-end (FOFEM5) provides front-end emissions calculatoremissions calculator

• CALPUFF performs plume rise and CALPUFF performs plume rise and downwind dispersion calculationsdownwind dispersion calculations

• CALPOST averages the CALPUFF CALPOST averages the CALPUFF outputsoutputs

CapabilitiesCapabilities• Computes 24-hour average PMComputes 24-hour average PM2.52.5

concentrations along line of downwind concentrations along line of downwind receptorsreceptors

• Up to 10 co-located burn units, each Up to 10 co-located burn units, each with different areas and ignition start with different areas and ignition start times.times.

CapabilitiesCapabilities• Flat or complex terrain (affects airflow Flat or complex terrain (affects airflow

and receptor locations)and receptor locations)• Uses single set of meteorological Uses single set of meteorological

conditions (wind speed, wind direction, conditions (wind speed, wind direction, ambient temperature, stability class, ambient temperature, stability class, mixing height). mixing height).

• ““Time and persistence” factor accounts Time and persistence” factor accounts for changing meteorological conditions for changing meteorological conditions over periods exceeding 8 hours.over periods exceeding 8 hours.

• Burn units modeled as co-locatedBurn units modeled as co-located buoyant, square, area sources. buoyant, square, area sources.

• Receptors placed at regular intervalsReceptors placed at regular intervals (0.1 miles) downwind of, and centered (0.1 miles) downwind of, and centered on, the area sources. on, the area sources.

Line of Receptors32

1

Co-Located Areas


• SIS interpolates receptor elevations SIS interpolates receptor elevations from a user-input terrain profile.from a user-input terrain profile.

• SIS uses the CALPUFF “plume path SIS uses the CALPUFF “plume path coefficient treatment” option to adjust coefficient treatment” option to adjust the plume height over complex terrain.the plume height over complex terrain.


Terrain profile pointReceptor

CapabilitiesCapabilities• Automatic or user adjustment of Automatic or user adjustment of

nighttime stability conditions.nighttime stability conditions.• Models wildfires, prescribed broadcast Models wildfires, prescribed broadcast

burns, or prescribed pile burns.burns, or prescribed pile burns.• Flaming and smoldering “puffs” are Flaming and smoldering “puffs” are

generated independently as the fire line generated independently as the fire line advances across the source area.advances across the source area.


• Output Tables:Output Tables:– Input parametersInput parameters– Hourly emissions and heat Hourly emissions and heat

productionproduction– Maximum 24-hour average PMMaximum 24-hour average PM2.52.5

concentration versus downwind concentration versus downwind distancedistance


• Output Graphs:Output Graphs:– Hourly PMHourly PM2.52.5 emissions emissions

– Maximum 24-hour average PMMaximum 24-hour average PM2.52.5 versus downwind distanceversus downwind distance

– Plume cross-section view for each Plume cross-section view for each hour of simulationhour of simulation

Example Screen ShotsExample Screen Shots

+ hour

+

-

- hour

Plume centerline

LimitationsCommentsComments• Simple-to-use, screening level emissions Simple-to-use, screening level emissions

and dispersion modeling system.and dispersion modeling system.• Currently linked only to the FOFEM5 Currently linked only to the FOFEM5

emissions model. May be linked to other emissions model. May be linked to other models in the future.models in the future.

• Suitable for modeling short-term fire events Suitable for modeling short-term fire events (one or two days maximum).(one or two days maximum).

LimitationsCommentsComments• Model is undergoing additional Model is undergoing additional

development.development.• Newest version will be available by March Newest version will be available by March

1 from Ann Acheson, Region 1 Air 1 from Ann Acheson, Region 1 Air Program Manager (Program Manager ([email protected]).

mailto:[email protected]

introduction to the fire effects tradeoff model

Documents

chaparral acres

acres burnedresidue

vegetation compositionwildland

vegetation class fcc

multiple disturbances

fuel treatment costsalso

natural disturbances

timesproduces multiple