intro&to&biogeochemical&modeling&...
TRANSCRIPT
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Intro to Biogeochemical Modeling Ocean & Coupled
Keith Lindsay, NCAR/NESL/CGD
NCAR is sponsored by the NaEonal Science FoundaEon
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Lecture Outline
1) Large Scale Ocean Biogeochemical Features 2) Techniques for Modeling Biological ProducEvity 3) Skill Assessment 4) Global Carbon Cycle 5) Summary
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NO3 (a nutrient), O2 (dissolved gas) Along Pacific Transect
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DIC (~CO2) Along Same Pacific Transect
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Takahashi Air-‐Sea CO2 Gas Flux
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Primary Processes Governing DistribuEon of Nutrients, O2, Carbon, etc.
• Biological ProducEvity in EuphoEc Zone – Consumes Nutrients & Inorganic Carbon – Produces Organic MaZer & O2
• Export of Organic MaZer out of EuphoEc Zone – Sinking ParEcles (e.g. detritus, CaCO3 shells, …) – CirculaEon of Suspended MaZer
• RemineralizaEon of Organic MaZer – ‘reverse’ of producEvity, consumes O2
• General CirculaEon – AdvecEve Transport – Lateral & VerEcal Mixing
• Temperature Dependent Air-‐Sea Gas Exchange
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Other Processes, Smaller Global Impact, Locally Significant
• Atmospheric Nutrient DeposiEon – Fe, N, P, …
• Sedimentary Burial • Riverine Inputs
• Nitrogen FixaEon – Conversion of dissolved N2 gas into NH4
• DenitrificaEon – ConsumpEon of NO3 during remineralizaEon
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Large Scale Ocean Carbon Cycle
DIC Diss. Inorganic C DOC Diss. Organic C PIC Part. Inorganic C POC Part. Organic C Figure courtesy PMEL
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What is an NPZD model?
N Nutrient nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, silicate, iron, etc.
P Phytoplankton photosynthesizers
Z Zooplankton grazers
D Detritus Canonical Example Fasham, Ducklow, McKelvie, Journal of Marine Research, Vol. 48, pp. 591-‐639, 1990. Many more variaEons are used…
Fasham model diagram from www.gotm.net
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How do you esEmate parameters and funcEonal forms?
• Laboratory & field incubaEons – P-‐I curves – Nutrient uptake curves
• Tune/OpEmize against field data • Previous Models
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Plankton FuncEonal Types (PFTs)
• Categorize plankton species by how they funcEon and use representaEve types/groups
• Example definiEon from Le Quéré et al., Global Change Biology, Vol. 11, pp. 2016-‐2040, 2005. – Explicit biogeochemical role – Biomass and producEvity controlled by disEnct physiological, environmental, or nutrient requirements
– Behavior has disEnct effect on other PFTs – QuanEtaEve importance in some region of the ocean
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Skill & Portability in 12 Different NPZD models Friedrichs et al., JGR-‐Oceans, 2007.
(b) Simple models do just as well as more complex models when tuned for specific sites. (c) More complex models do beZer at mulEple sites with single parameter sets. (d) More complex models perform beZer at different sites when tuned for one site.
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Doney et al. (J. Mar. Systems, 2009)
CCSM BEC model
Moore, Doney, Lindsay, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2004.
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Primary Features of CESM1 BEC Model
• Nutrients: N, P, Si, Fe • 4 Plankton FuncEonal Groups – 3 Autotrophs, 1 Grazer – Implicit coccolithophores – 24 tracers in CESM 1.0, 1.1 – 27 tracers in CESM 1.2
• Fixed C:N:P raEos in plankton • Variable Fe:C, Si:C, Chl:C raEos
• Numerous enhancements introduced in CESM 1.2 – Reduce excessively large OMZ bias
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Known Gaps in Ocean BGC in CESM1-‐(BGC)
• CalcificaEon & CaCO3 remineralizaEon rates are independent of CO3 saturaEon state
• No riverine inputs of BGC tracers – Prescribed datasets introduced in 1.2
• No sediment model – Loss to sediments introduced in 1.2
• No treatment of BGC in sea-‐ice
• Focus in on lower trophic levels
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Model ValidaEon: Examples of Data Sets
• Macronutrients (PO4, NO3, SiO3) and O2 from World Ocean Atlas
• DIC, ALK from GLODAP Analysis • pCO2 and CO2 Flux assembled by Takahashi • Surface Chl measured by satellite • ProducEvity esEmated from satellite • JGOFS study sites • HOTS & BATS Emeseries
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Air-‐sea CO2 Flux
Doney et al. (Deep-‐Sea Res. II, 2009)
model
observaEons
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Satellite Ocean Color Comparison
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Known Challenges
• OpEmize BGC model parameters – FuncEonal group approach increases uncertainty of parameters (i.e. mulEple species, with different characterisEcs, are clumped together)
– Don’t want to overtune too much to compensate for biases in physical model
• Given BGC model parameters and physical circulaEon, generate balanced BGC state – Need to deal w/ diurnal to millenial Emescales – Using Newton-‐Krylov for this is a work in progress
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Large Scale Global Carbon Cycle
Figure courtesy PMEL
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Land & Ocean CO2 Fluxes from CESM1-‐BGC
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Same plot with Fixed ATM CO2
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CO2 Seasonal Cycle
Lindsay et al., 2012, J Climate, submiZed
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CO2 Response to ENSO
Mauna Loa, Hawaii Point Barrow, Alaska
Lindsay et al., 2012, J Climate, submiZed
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Land & Ocean Uptake of Fossil Fuel Emissions
Friedlingstein et al, J. Climate, 2006
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Impact of Climate Change on this Uptake
Friedlingstein et al, J. Climate, 2006
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Summary • Large scale ocean biogeochemical features are determined
by handful of processes • ‘Perfect’ ecosystem model doesn’t exist, many
simplificaEons need to be made. Improving models is ongoing research. ScienEfic quesEons guide this process.
• Atmospheric CO2 couples land and ocean carbon cycles, explaining some correlaEon. Climate variability does as well. Atmospheric CO2 observaEons are valuable constraint on models.
• Land & ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2, parEcularly sensiEvity to climate change is ongoing research. Modern models show considerable spread for land results.
• PracEcal Notes are available and will be presented in Land/BGC breakout