inv metals (tsx.inv) - goodmanschoolofmines.laurentian.ca · carolina las penas thesis i –...
TRANSCRIPT
INV Metals (TSX.INV)
Spencer McFarlane
Hari Muralidharan Ashar Subzwari Dalton Austin
FEBRUARY 7-9, 2019
Prepared By
▪ Projects: LomaLarga,TierrasColaradas,LasPenas,Carolina,LaRebuscada▪ Valuation: Wederivedoursharepricesingaweightedblendof80%NAVand
20%PrecedentsTransactions.▪ Ownership: Iamgold35.59%
TerryMacGibbon8.38% CandaceMacGibbon4.49%
• CSR:INVmaintainsastrongpresencewithinlocalcommunitiesthroughcommunityoutreachandeducation.
Executive Summary – INV Metals
CompanyHighlights ValuationMetrics
XXStockPerformance
Segmentation
RevenueProjectionsBasedonMetal % Gross(mm)(FY22e) Gold 86 $139 Silver 7 $11.3 Copper 7 $11.3
MarketCap $62.04 AvgTradingVolume 32.64kNetAssetValue $341M Revenue(FY22e) $162MP/NAV 0.14x EBITDA(FY22e) $104 MNAVPS NetFixedAssets $69MCash $7.34M TotalDebt $0
KeyValuationStatistics($mm)
HighLevelCorporateStrategy Targetpotentialjurisdictionswithqualityassets
Thoroughlyexploretheareaforpromisingdeposits
Developthetargetarea
Sellthedevelopmentforapremium,orgeneratecashflowsthroughproduction
*Asa%ofnetsales.
Thesis
M&APotential
Jurisdication
StrongBrass
1
2
3
INVmetalsjuniorgoldexplorationcompany. Wecametoablendedtargetpriceof$1.5/sharewhichisinlinewithanalystestimates.
Company Overview – Loma Larga
ResourceClassification
Tonnage(Mt)
Au(g/t)
ContainedAu(Moz)
Ag(g/t)
ContainedAg(Moz)
Cu(%)
ContainedCu(Mlb)
Grade(G/tAuEq)
ContainedGoldEquivalent(MozAuEq)
Proven+Probable
13.9 4.91 2.20 29.6 13.27 0.29 88.0 5.81 2.60
Measured+Indicated
19.8 4.25 2.71 27.8 17.7 0.25 109.5 5.01 3.2
Inferred 4.7 2.22 0.33 29.7 4.5 0.14 14.5 2.84 0.43
LifeofMine 12 Years AfterTaxIRR 24.7%
DevCapExEstimated $309.5 M SustainingCapital $72.7MProjectedRevenue $2.2B After-TaxCFEstimate $582M
Ramp-UpTonnes/Day 3,000 Tonnes/DayYr5+ 3,400Ramp-UpAnnualGEO 267,000 AnnualGEOYr5+ 206,000
• De-Risk:Nocommunitywaternearby.• Only80HectaresofDisturbance• Explorationpotentialonallsidesoftheproject.• PotentialPorphyry• Lotsofinformationfrombeingthere12years.
BeneficialQualities
KeyStatistics
LomaLargaisahigh-gradeGolddevelopmentassetwithshallowdepositsthatINVacquiredfromIAMGoldin2012.
Company Overview – Other Assets
INVtakesadvantageofEcuador’sunder-exploredminingindustrywithseveralkeyExplorationAssets.
TierrasColaradas• Indicatedhighgradegoldandsilvervaluesdetected
onthethreemainveinsontheproperty. • 484samplesrangeinvaluefrom0.005to240g/tof
gold,and<0.2–2,479.0g/tsilver.
LasPenas • Coversanareaof30,278hectars. • Approximately30kmnorthofLomaLarga. • Twohighgradeveins: LaCrestaVeinSystemrangingupto88g/tgoldGalletaVeinSystemrangingupto35.9g/tgold,3,507g/tsilver,and821ppmcopper.
Carolina• PotentialforPorphyry• 1kmawayfromSolGold‘sCascabelMine. • Samplingwascomprisedof147rockchipsamples.
Coppervalueswithin34samplesgradedgreaterthan200ppm,including10greaterthan300ppm,and2greaterthan800ppm
LaRebuscada• LocatedinthecentralpartofEcuador,intheprovince
ofCotopaxi,thissiteis3,205hectares. • Atotalof148sampleswerecollectedwith25values
greaterthan1.0g/tgold.
Tierras Colaradas La Rebuscada
Carolina Las Penas
Thesis I – Potential for M&A INV metals is ripe for acquisition for their quickly approaching development, high quality grade, scalability and proven management team.
M&A Activity in Mining Industry
Loma Larga Is Ripe Acquisition
Trends and highlights
§ Deal value in 2018 was $53.4, representing a 90% increase from prior year. M&A activity was largely driven by 3 high profile deals ( Barrick acquires Randgold, Newmont acquires Gold Corp.
§ On average, deal size was $160.5 million, a 113% growth over 2017. Robust growth despite geopolitical headwinds, namely trade ware and GDP slowdown in China.
§ Despite this, M&A activity remained strong on the back of improving gold prices and companies taking advantage of low valuations.
§ Analysts see the small to mid –tier sector of the mining industry as the sweet spot.
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Disclosed deal value Deal volume
Quickly approaching development
1
High Quality Asset 2
• Pre feasibility study completed, and project ready for financing
• Construction commencing as soon as 2020, meaning investors receive ROI relatively soon.
Proven Management team 3
• High grade mineral resource estimates, quality assets with exploration upside
• Saleable concentrate to help with financing and avoid EPS dilution through large equity financing
• Establishing development in now mining friendly environment
• History of acquiring quality assets and sale of business at high control premium.
0.12x 0.14x 0.23x 0.24x
0.33x 0.34x
0.48x 0.57x 0.61x
0.70x
0.00x 0.10x 0.20x 0.30x 0.40x 0.50x 0.60x 0.70x 0.80x
Thesis I – Potential Acquirers IAMGOLD appears to be the most logical acquirer of INV based on financial feasibility, strategic alignment, and risk profile.
Potential Acquirers of INV and brief description
§ IAMGOLD currently owns 36% of the company based on most recent share ownership. Decided to divest initial investment in Ecuador in 2012 based on unfavourable industry dynamics at the time ( Sold Quimsacocha to INV).
§ IAMGOLD currently has cash and cash equivalents and short term investments of 744.5 million as of September 30th, 2018.
§ Company has well established exploration properties and land positions throughout Brazil, Chile and Argentina. Geographies that are similar to Eucador.
§ Strategy is to build on this base through existing operating mine expansions, optimization initiatives, development of new mines and the advancement of exploration properties.
§ Cash and Cash equivalents on hand are $120.7 million of available cash and 685 million in credit. Guidance for 2018 Capital injection indicates 192 million will be utilized for expansion.
YAMANA GOLD IAMGOLD
Financial Feasibility
Strategic Alignment
Robust Risk Profile
Thesis II – Operational Mines in Ecuador
CurrentlythereareafewmineswithinEcuadorbutwiththereforms,moreplayersarelookingtoenterthescene
CurrentMinesinEcuador ConcessionsinEcuador
EcuadorEndangered&MiningFeeds
Thesis II– Ecuador “Mining Law”
FavorablechangestominingregulationandtaxpolicyhascementedEcuador’spositioninasakeygeographyforjuniorandseniorproducers. EcuadorMiningLawRegulationTimeLine
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018
Unfavourablemininglaw KinrossabandonsFrutaDelNorte
MajoroverhaulofminingregulationsWindfalltax
DeeperDive
2008
2013
2013
2018
▪ April2008,sawtherevokingof80%ofminingconcessionsandtheadditionofthe70%windfalltax.
▪ June2013KinrossAbandonsFrutaDelNorteafterfailuretonegotiateterms(mainlyduetowindfall
tax).
▪ June2013,sawamajoroverhaulinregulationsnamelytougherenforcementonillegalmining,implementationofcategoriesofmines,andstandardizedcalculationforwindfalltax.
▪ August2018sawthetotalremovalofwindfalltax,andcapitalgainstaxreductiononsharetransactionsfrom22%to8-10%.
Thesis II– Ecuador “Economics”
▪ Background:EcuadorandINVbothhaveavestedinterestinensuringthatthismineissuccessful,andshouldbetreatedasapartnership.
EcuadorisprimedtohaveaproductivepartnershipwithINVmetalsbasedontheoverrelianceontheoileconomyandmutualinterests.
Sources:TradingEconomics&CountryEconomy
CompanyProposaltoEcuador
EcuadorOilRents%ofGDP
GDPEcuador
EcuadorPublicDebt%ofGDP
WhatINVhastooffer WhattheEcuadorianGovernmentcanoffer JobCreation AccesstoQualityMiningsites TaxGeneration CreateValueforShareholders CommunitySupportSystems RiskDiversification
Thesis II– Macro Outlook
SupplyandDemand EquityMarkets
Debt-to-GDP
Supplyconstraints,Equitymarketsell-offs,Debt,andFinancialSafetyareallshort-termdriversforabullishGoldprice.
SafeHaven
• Debtasa%ofGDPthatisgreaterthen100%islikelytodecreasethevalueoftheUSD,andincreasesthevalueofgold.
• TheUSdebtleveliscurrentlyaround100%andprojectedtogrowat5%yoyassumingnorecession.Thisinitselfisnotsustainable,andwitharecessionthedebtlevelswillincreaseconsiderably.
• Estimatesoftotalglobaldebtare244trillion,whichisover318%ofglobalGDP.
PoliticalUncertaintyfromUK,EU,US,China Tradetensionswilllikelyhaveanimpacton: • Speculativeandmaterialpressuresoncommodityprices. • Actualdemandforcommodities. • Inflationarypressures. Recession • GSgivesa43%chanceofarecessioninthenext3years. • 75%ofJPM’sultrahighnetworthclientssaytheyexpectoneby2020. ReducedLiquidity • Adrivingfactorinthestrengthoftheequitymarketistheexcessliquidity
giventothemarketfromtheFED,whichallowsinvestorstotakemorerisks.
• Now,theFederalReserveisallowingUS$328Billionofbondstomature.
Wheneverthestockmarketdeclinessignificantly,oneofthefirstalternativeinvestmentsthatinvestorsconsidertransferringmoneyintoisgold.
• Supplychangesslowlyandisratherinelasticcomparedtodemand.Theconstraintbetweenwhat’savailableandwhat’sneededdrivestheprice.
• AccumulatingGold
inventoriesincreasescarcityanddriveuptheprice.
CandaceMacGibbon,CPACA–CEO/Director❑ Withover20yearsexperienceintheminingsector.❑ InstitutionalSalespersonRBCCapitalMarkets,2006-2008.Workedasaminingassociate
forBMOCM,2004-2006.❑ Hasbeenwiththecompanysince2008,andhasheldthetitlesof,VP,CFO,President,and
eventuallyCEOin2015.
BillShaver,P.Eng–COO❑ Mr.Shaverhasover40yearsofexpertiseinmineconstructionandoperations.Someofhis
careernotablesincludethefoundingofDynatec,workingastheCOOofFNXMining,andCEOofDMCMiningservices.
❑ Mr.ShaverservesasaConsultantofShaverEngineeringLimitedandminingcompaniesonaworldwidebasiswithemphasisonsafety,managementandtechnicalevaluationofoperatingminesandprojects.
SunnyLowe,CPA,CA–CFO❑ Hasalmost20yearsoffinanceexperiencespentmostlyintheminingsector.Has
developedskillsacrossdisciplinessuchasEnterpriseRiskManagement,GlobalTaxationandCompliance,andBusinessSystemsandControls.
❑ FromherexperiencesintheVPofFinanceroleatKinrossGoldCorp,andthroughotherpositions.
❑ MostrecentlyVPofFinanceatKinrossGoldCorporation.
Investment Thesis III – Management
Investment thesis III – Terry MacGibbon
TerryMacGibbon,amininghalloffamerthatincitesconfidenceinshareholderseverytimeheisinvolved. Attributes
Successfultrackrecord
AssetSelection ▪ All4companiesthatTerryhas
managedhavehadtransformativeassetsinopportunisticgeographies.
StrategicAcquisitions
SourceFinancing
CommunityCentered
▪ Historyofacquiringquality“noncore”propertiesintheSudburybasinfromINCOforthesuccessstorythatisFNX.
▪ Strongrelationshipswithfinancialsponsors,equityinvestorsandinvestmentbankstosecurefinancingforacquisitionsandoperations.
▪ Theabilitytopartnerwithcommunitymembersandestablishcommongroundtoavoidcommunityoutcryandprotest.
Morelosgoldproject-becamemidsizedgoldproducer,345kounces,fixedtensionswithresidentsonprojectsite,tailingspondwouldwashovervillage,relocated
villagersandbuiltabettervillageforthem.
FNXminingcompanymergedwithquadramininglimitedacquiredbyKGHMPOLSKA3billion–startedoutbyacquiring5minesinthefootwallofSudburythatwasnotattractiveforlargercompanies,butbyusinghistoricaldataandadvancedcomputersoftwareallowedthemtodiscoverore
relativelyquickly..
Tmacresources-turnedaroundhopebaygoldprojectafterNewmontfailedtomakeadevelopmentplan,acquiredthroughallstockdeal,completedasuccessfuldrillingathopebayandboostedmeasuredandindicatedby59%to4.4millionounces.Also
minimizedcoststo$785usdanounce.Didanipofor155millionandsecured
120millionindebtfromprivatelenders,miningipohasntbeendone
onthetsxsince2012
Invmetals-designedwithminimalenvironmentalimpact,10,000
tonesofmostlysilicausedtofillinthemineandrestwillbere
vegetated.
BothReunionandWallbridgehavestrengths,weultimatelydecidedtochooseINVbasedonourinvestmentthesis.
ReunionGoldCorp WallbridgeMiningCo
Positives❑ Accessibilitytolowercost
capitalthroughBarrickdeal.❑ Oneofthefewuntappedgold
sourcesintheworld,withno/limitedpoliticalstrife.
Positives❑ FavourablePermittingof16
months.❑ StrongManagementand
Ownership.
Drawbacks❑ Lowlevelofinfrastructurein
FrenchGuyana.❑ Sharedilutionthrough
frequentuseofEquityfinancing.
Drawbacks❑ UnattractivePrice❑ Pre-maturetobeingan
acquisitiontarget.
Competitor Analysis
Valuation – Net Asset Value
KeyAssumptions
NetAssetValuation
PlantInfrastructure ProjectedFiscalYearsEndingSeptember30th Scenarios 2020E 2021E Total BearCase (8,954) (15,800) (24,754) BaseCase (8,596) (15,168) (23,764) BullCase (7,163) (12,640) (19,803)
IndirectCosts ProjectedFiscalYearsEndingSeptember30th Scenarios 2020E 2021E Total BearCase (113,556) (23,450) (137,006) BaseCase (109,014) (22,512) (131,526) BullCase (90,845) (18,760) (109,605)
DevelopmentCapExAssumptions
Gold Price Development CapEx Discount Rate
Fair Value Per Share Base Case Bear Case Bull Case Bear Case Bull Case Bear Case Bull Case
PVofFreeCashFlowstoFirm(FCFF) $86,660 ($25,127) $198,448 $79,361 $115,858 $11,733 $202,947 EnterpriseValueoffirm 86,660 (25,127) 198,448 79,361 115,858 11,733 202,947-Debt - - - - - - -+CashandEquivalents 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000NetDebt (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000)EquityValueoffirm 93,660 (18,127) 205,448 86,361 122,858 18,733 209,947DilutedSharesoutstanding 93000 93000 93000 93000 93000 93000 93000
Impliedpricepershare 1.01 (0.19) 2.21 0.93 1.32 0.20 2.26
GoldPriceAssumptions
DiscountRateAssumptions
Valuation– Precedent Transactions Analysis 3 transactions were utilized to determine the control premium that would be applied if INV were to be acquired.
Precedents Transactions Analysis
AnnouncedDate TargetCompany Buyer/InvestorsTransactionValue($mm)
ImpliedTV/Revenue ImpliedTV/EBITDA ImpliedTV/EBIT
August5th2010 CorrienteResourcesChinaRailwayConstructionCorpLtd. 1188.48 0.6x 2.5x 2.2x
Jan23rd2018 BrioGold LeagoldMiningCorporation 323.8 1.2x 13.1x 0.0x
May15th2017LandfortheFrutaDelNortaProject LundinGold 240.8 2.0x N/A N/A
Max 2.0xMedian 1.2xMean 1.3xMin 0.6x
MedianImpliedTV/Revenue 2.0xFY2022ERevenue 161,660TransactionValue 193,992Less:Debt -Add:Cash 7,300TransactionValue 201,292 SharesOutstanding 92,587FairValuePerShare $3.57
Based on Precedent transactions we derived an intrinsic value of $3.57 reflecting a potential control premium on acquisition of 4.6x yesterday close. Given the nature of the transactions only a 20% weight was applied to this
methodology.
Criteria for choosing transactions
Precedent Transaction Criteria
Geography
Material
Size
Target Companies In Precedent Transactions
Corriente Resources Brio Gold Fruta Del Norta
Team – Thank You for listening!
HariMuralidharan AsharSubzwariDaltonAustin SpencerMcFarlane
Spencerisa3rdyearfinancestudentatRyersonUniversity.HehasinternshipexperienceintheMiningIndustryandSalesandTrading.HeisactivelyinvolvedwiththeRyersonInvestmentGroupwhereheservesasthePortfolioManagerfortheMetals&Miningsector.
Asharisa4thyearfinancestudentatRyersonUniversity.HeiscurrentlypursuingtheCFAdesignationandhasastronginterestininvestmentmanagement.Heisalsoactivelyinvolvedincasecompetitionsandstudentgroupwork.
Daltonisa1styearaccountingandfinancestudentatRyersonUniversity.HeisanactiveparticipantintheFinancialAdvisorSkillsTrainingprogram,amemberoftheRyersonCasePoolteam,andanAnalystfortheRyersonInvestmentGroupintheFinancialssector.
Hari is a fourth-year finance student at Ryerson University. He has internship experience as a Private Equity Analyst and as a Consultant. He is actively involved with the Ryerson Investment Group where he serves as the Portfolio Manager for the Technology, Telecom, and Media sector.