investing in rwanda – an overview november 2009
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Investing in Rwanda – An Overview November 2009. Rwanda – land of a thousand hills, home to a thousand opportunities. Reasons for investing in Rwanda. Sustained high growth. A clear vision for growth through private investment set out by President Kagame (Vision 2020) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Investing in Rwanda – An OverviewNovember 2009
Rwanda – land of a thousand hills, home to a thousand opportunities
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A clear vision for growth through private investment set out by President Kagame (Vision 2020)
Politically stable with well functioning institutions, rule of law and zero tolerance for corruption
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Reasons for investing in Rwanda
Source: RDB
Robust governance
8.8% average year-on-year GDP growth since 2004, stable inflation and exchange rate
GDP growth rate in 2008 of 11.2%, highest among East African countries
Sustained high growth
Potential opportunities for investment abound, particularly in the following sectors: Infrastructure: Opportunities in rail, air transportation to further develop Rwanda as an EAC hub Agriculture: Backbone of economy, potential for growth through productivity and value addition Energy: Power generation, off grid generation and significant methane gas opportunities Tourism: Unique assets creating booming sector; growth potential in birding and convention Information and Communication Technology: Priority sector for achieving Vision 2020
Other attractive sectors include Real estate and construction , Financial services, and Mining
Untapped investment
opportunities
Most densely populated country in Africa with ~10M people, majority below the age of 20
A hub for rapidly integrating East Africa: located centrally bordering 3 countries in East Africa which has an existing Customs Union and forming a Common Market in 2010 for 125M people
Access to markets
Fastest global reformer of business regulations based on World Bank Doing Business Survey
Simple taxation, development of industrial parks and free trade zone, and creation of stock exchange
Increasingly attractive destination for FDI – $103M in 2008 represents 10x increase from 2005
Rwanda Development Board, an independent agency, created as a ‘one-stop centre’ for investors
Investor friendly climate
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A country of sustained growth and opportunity
3Source: Rwanda MINECOFIN, 2009; % of GDP minus adjustments (import duties), IMF World Economic Outlook 2009 *Industry – Non Manufacturing is mostly construction with a little mining and electricity and gas
Sustained Real GDP growth Outperforming the region on Real GDP growth
8.8% annual growth
‘08 Share of total ‘04-’08 growth rate
7%
9%
36%
48%
RWF (billions)
7.6%
15.0%
5.1%
11.0%
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A favourable and stable macro- economic environment
* Constant exchange rateSource: 2004-2007 NISR, 2008 MINECOFIN Projection, BNR, RDB analysis
12.2%
9.1% 8.9% 9.1%
15.4%
9.6%
5.8% 5.0% 5.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Single digit inflation 5 years of stable exchange rate (RWF to 1 USD)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US
D B
illio
ns
*
Tax Non-tax revenue
Government revenues growing steadily
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650Global food and fuel price increase
caused temporary spike, now under
control
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A country which is safe, secure and an easy place to live
Source: World Bank ‘Governance Indicators’ 2007, UN, press search, RDB
A country rebuilt and on the rise
Rwanda has been rebuilt since the traumatic events of 1994 and is a thriving, safe country
Kigali representative of this turnaround
A clean and green city, with the lowest crime of any capital city in the region
Winner of UN Habitat Award (2008) the highest award for an urban area
More stable than most emerging markets
World Bank Governance Indicator: Political stability (Higher is better)
Republic with elected President, Parliament of two houses (with most members elected from local bodies)
The judiciary system includes Supreme, High, District as well as Commercial courts
Robust governance creates long term stability
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Strong leadership has created a pro-business, near zero corruption country
Source: World Bank Governance Indicators, Rwanda ‘Vision 2020’, RDB
President Kagame, recognized as a ‘CEO President’, understands the need for private sector investment
Advised by a team of international business leaders
A bastion of near zero corruption
World Bank Governance Indicator: Control of Corruption (Higher is better)
A country with a clear vision
Vision 2020: “The major aspiration of Vision 2020 is to transform Rwanda’s economy into a middle income country...this will not be achieved unless we transform from a subsistence agriculture economy to a knowledge-based society, with high levels of savings and private investment.”
A President who understands business
“A mecca for venture capitalists”- CNN Money: Business 2.0
“Rwanda is the most undervalued stock on the continent and maybe in the world”
- Fortune Magazine
Respected by the business community
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A government committed to making it easier to do business
Source: World Bank ‘Doing Business’ Rankings 2010
Fastest reforming country in World Bank’s Doing Business 2010 rankingsBusiness regulations now easier in Rwanda than the average economy in Eastern Europe, Asia,
Middle East, Latin America and Africa
Rose record 76 places in World Bank’s global survey
4 major commercial laws passed in 2009 in addition to administrative changes that make it easier to start a business, employ workers, register property, get credit and be protected as an investor
Rwanda #11 in world for ease of starting business
2 steps in less than 3 days to register a company
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As an EAC custom union member, Rwanda has:
Duty free importation for products produced within EAC
Common external tariff: 0% on Raw materials and Capital Equipment; 15% on intermediate goods; 25% on finished goods
Constitutionally protected free repatriation of capital and profits
100% write off of R&D costs
Additional fiscal incentives in strategic sectors
Continuing work to simplify the taxation system
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A taxation system and infrastructure projects supporting growth in FDI
Source: RDB, BNR and MINECOFIN
Simple business taxation for investorsSpecialized infrastructure for industry and
trade
Kigali Industrial Park and Free Trade Zone under construction (completion end ‘09): Sites to have reliable infrastructure and
commercial services Easy access to the planned new Bugesera
International Airport
As a result of all these factors, FDI investment growing fast
Building robust capital markets
Stock exchange established in January 2008 with OTC transactions in bonds and equities
Global and Pan-African investors include Actis, Aga Khan hotels, MTN S. Africa, Starbucks, TiGO, Dubai World, Contour Global, Ecobank
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The Rwanda Development Board is proof that Rwanda is open for business
Source: RDB
Investor focused
Independent and influential
Built with global expertise
One stop centre for all investors
Created by consolidating all key agencies in government responsible for business registration, investment promotion, environmental clearances, privatization and specialist agencies which support the priority sectors of ICT and tourism as well as SMEs and human capacity development
Reports directly to the President
Guided by a Board composed of all the key Ministers (e.g., finance, commerce, infrastructure, agriculture)
Modelled on international best practices such as Singapore EDB
Advisory and hands-on support from global entrepreneurs and experts from Singapore Development Board, World Bank, IFC and the Office of Tony Blair
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Country Population in Millions
Kenya 35.3
Tanzania 39.7
Uganda 32.0
Rwanda 9.6
Burundi 7.9
A hub for investors to access the rapidly integrating East African market
Source: Data from IMF World Economic Outlook 10
A large market
EAC comprised of 125 million people with a combined GDP of over USD 70 billion
EAC: Taking real strides towards integration
Established a Customs Union (2005)
Working towards a Common Market in 2010, a Monetary Union by 2012 and, ultimately, a Political Federation
Functioning political and legal organs
Regional infrastructure projects are being financed and implemented and regional trade has increased
Efforts to combine the East African Community, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, and the Southern Africa Development Community underway, putting 600M people into a single market.
Existing bilateral trade agreements with the US and initiatives with the European Union (EU) and others in advanced stages
Rwanda: A gateway to Africa and the world
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Opportunities for investment
Source: RDB
Priority investment sectors: Infrastructure Agriculture Energy Tourism Information and Communications Technology Real estate and construction Financial services Mining
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Sector profile: InfrastructureRail, air, logistics investment opportunities abound to develop Rwanda as an EAC hub
Roads
Roads represent 90% of transportation in the country
Over 14,000 km (8,700 miles) of roads, ~20% of which is paved
Regional hub for road transport as it connects important regional players, from the east coast of Africa to the west coast
Source: RDB
There are no railroad systems available, but a new railway line is in the pipeline:
2 branches of the railway line are:
Isaka-Kigali railway project to link to the port of Dar Es Salaam
Rwanda-Burundi via Congo to link the southern Africa Cape Gauge railway network
Cost of $4B and is currently fundraising
Rail
The Kigali International Airport has an annual capacity of 4.4M passengers
Rwandair is the national air carrier with flights to number of regional destinations (Arusha, Entebbe, Nairobi and Johannesburg)
Other international airlines include Kenya Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, China Postal Airlines, and African Star Airways
A new airport planned 40 km outside of Kigali, for estimated construction cost of $300M for Phase 1
Air
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Sector Profile: AgricultureWorld class exports but many opportunities for regional export expansion
Source: MINECOFIN, OCIR Cafe, RDB
Coffee – world class and winner of a number of international awards; main agricultural export with buyers including Starbucks and Sainsbury’s
Tea – relatively underdeveloped but high potential with 6% increase in volume creating 29% additional value to sector in 2008; buyers include Mark’s & Spencer’s in the UK
Many other opportunities – Dairy, fruits (many exotic varieties for juice), fresh cut flowers, silk and food crops for export to region
48%36%
16%
GDP Contribution, 2008
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Agriculture is the bedrock of the economy
Around 87% of the population is engaged in agricultural activities
Exports led by tea, coffee but many options
National strategy driving productivity, quality
Government and development partners have focused on improving quality through fertiliser distribution and farmer training programmes
This resulted in 15% growth in the agricultural sector in 2008 and rising prices for coffee
Privatization of tea plantations and factories has begun in 2009 and is ongoing
Further opportunities in coffee washing and roasting as the premium harvest grows
Also in distribution, markets and cold chain infrastructure for export products
Value addition is a major opportunity
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Sector profile: EnergyNew generation and methane gas can open access beyond Rwanda to neighbouring markets
Overview
Source: RDB, Ministry of Finance
80% of energy from wood combustion and electricity coverage levels low at 6%
Generation 60-69MW of electricity generation (50% hydro-
electric, 50% diesel) today
Recognising the strategic importance of the sector, the GoR has ambitious plans to more than double generation capacity to 130MW through methane gas, hydro (macro and micro) and 1 heavy fuel oil plant
For instance, in micro-hydro, 333 potential sites identified (50KW-1MW) by 2008, 2 constructed, 21 under construction and 10 scheduled
Methane Gas 50-55 billion m3 of methane gas in Lake Kivu:
1st Gas Concession and Power Purchase Agreement signed with Contour Global – 100MW KivuWatt power plant under construction expected to produce 4MW/hour for ~$324M
Further opportunities such as a 2nd concession at Lake Kivu and conversion of gas to liquid and gas to fertilizer
Power grid Power grid coverage is planned to expand to
67% of the region by 2012 through a $311M capital budget roll-out plan
Transmission and distribution networks to expand from 3,300km to 5,000km by 2012
Targeting 90% electricity from renewable source
246,000 ha of forests for carbon credit potential
Example: recent agreement with US/ UK based company funded by leading UK PE firm to produce biodiesel by planting 10,000 ha of Jatropha plants ($35M investment in 2 years) to address 15-20% of domestic diesel demand
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Renewable energy
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Visitor numbers have been booming
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Sector profile: TourismTourism sector booming, but significant opportunities remain
Source: ORTPN, KPS, RDB
Virunga National Park: natural habitat for 600 of the 800 rare mountain gorillas made famous by the work of Diane Fossey. Park includes a mountain lodge in the ‘Condé Nast Hot List’
The rainforests of Nyungwe National Park: home to rare chimpanzees, birds and elephants
Lake Kivu: surrounded by stunning beaches and dormant volcanoes covered by lush vegetation. A 4 star Serena resort is one of several hotels
Akagera National Park: offers the potential to be one of East Africa’s great safari destinations
Birding tourism: Rwanda has over 1/3 of Africa’s bird species, the highest concentration in Africa with 260 species in Nyungwe forest alone
In 2008, leisure visitors increased 50%
26% increase in business/conference visitors – a priority area of significant potential
There are 187 hotels and 4102 hotel rooms in Rwanda of which only 7 are upper range
The average room occupancy rate for upper range hotels was 70% in 2008 with foreign tourists accounting for 97% of bed nights sold
Rwanda has unique natural assets
In 2007, leisure tourists spent $209M, making the tourism industry the country’s largest foreign exchange earner
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Sector profile: ICTICT – Information and Communication Technology – top priority for 2020
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Overview of ICT
Attracted ~$500M in investment over the last three years by both private and public sector
The government has invested in building the ICT infrastructure through:
a 2,500km optic fiber that covers Kigali city and the entire country, with a total of 7 regional links to the neighboring countries
Kigali City Wireless Broadband due to be commissioned early next year
ICT park set up for investors in pilot phase
ICT in Rwanda currently encompasses, in varying degrees:
Wireline telephones
VoIP
Dial-up internet, ISDN based internet, broadband internet
Computer software use and development,
Computer hardware, assembly, and repair
Major players in telecom
Source: RDB
MTN Rwanda and Rwandatel are the dominant players ,offering fixed telephones, mobile telephones, and internet services. TiGO, the 3rd operator, is set to begin operation by end of ‘09
Between the two companies, there are approximately 2M mobile subscribers, representing 20% penetration
A sizeable private sector is growing around the networking and software development sectors, with Rwandan companies exporting services to Burundi and Eastern DRC
Rwanda is participating in a $24M World Bank project to connect its national backbone to submarine cable:
There are three optic Service Providers Seacom, Teams and Eassy, at the East Coast to link various African countries to the global network.
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Sector profile: Real estate & constructionGrowth creating boom in demand for commercial and residential real estate development
Source: RDB
Real estate is booming Residential real estate
In 2007, Rwanda’s development and public works sectors experienced a 10% growth creating a shortage of fully functional office space and residential housing
From 2003-2008,investment in the construction sector grew from $100M to $350M. In 2008, revenues from the general construction sector increased by 51% driven by:
Population growth of 2.8% combined with urban growth currently at 4% per annum
Growth of the middle class
Diaspora returning to Rwanda
As a result, there is also a shortage in construction material.
Rwanda imported $64.6M of construction materials in 2007 and $140M in 2008
This includes 100% of steel and a majority of other construction materials
GoR projects that by 2020 approximately 30% of the population will live in urban areas. To date, only about 5% of residents in Kigali own modern-style houses.
In Kigali alone, demand for housing is 8,000- 10,000 units per annum. The combined demand for housing countrywide is estimated to be ~25,000 units per annum
Commercial real estate
The recent increase in foreign investments has created a shortage of upper end office space with fully equipped telecommunications, utilities, and power. From 2003 to 2006 rent on these buildings increased between 50-200%
Type Rent price Construction cost
Residential $2500 - $4000 per unit
$200 – 215 per sq foot
Commercial $46 - $53 per sq foot $335 – 365 per sq foot
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Sector profile: Financial servicesThe banking sector remains relatively underpenetrated
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Overview
Source: RDB, Ministry of Finance
~ $200M of equity capital supporting ~$1B in total assets
Estimated 12% of the population had a bank account in 2007
20% sector growth rate in 5 years driven by:
GoR enforcement of banks meeting international banking standards
The “Financial Sector Development Program” which increased the minimum capital requirement from $2M to $8M and requires banks to prove they are qualified before receiving a charter
Policy, strategy and incentives in place to develop capital markets
The banking sector is comprised of eight commercial banks, one primary microfinance bank, one discount house, one development bank and one mortgage bank
Commercial banks represent 76% of the economy’s total financing while micro finance institutions serve 88% of depositors and 90% of borrowers
The microfinance sub sector consists of more than 50 relatively small institutions where ~ 11% of Rwandan assets and ~ 3.5% of the population hold accounts
The 3 largest local banks are:
Banque de Kigali (100% govt. owned)
BPR (98% private, including Actis)
BCR (80% private)
Ecobank, Access Bank and KCB are among the international banks with a presence in Rwanda
Key players
Interest rates in line with the region
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Sector profile: MiningUnexploited opportunities in ores, processing and diversification abound
Source: MINIRENA, RDB
Mineral exports have room for growth
Rwanda’s main mineral exports are ores processed to extract tin, coltan and tungsten
Only 25% of ~$ 200M potential output currently exploited
Significant opportunity to increase productivity through industrial mining
Work is being done to develop the sector
A national mining survey is being conducted to identify mineral deposits
A strong, investor friendly legal and policy framework being put in place
Opportunities in diversification and processing
Significant opportunities in processing ores
Diversification opportunities in quarries (for construction materials) and precious stones (gold, diamond, beryl, topaz, rubies, sapphires, gamets and other unexploited deposits have been identified
There are major peat deposits in the southwest of Rwanda which are only just being exploited and could be used for electricity generation or processed as an alternative to fire wood
Share of production volume by source, 2007
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Summary of selected potential investment opportunities
Source: GoR 20
Project/Company Sector Estimated investment Expected timing
Isaka Railway Infrastructure $4B Construction to start in 2014
Bugesera Airport Infrastructure $300M Construction to start in late 2010
Kigali Industrial Park (KIP) Infrastructure/Real estate $12M 2009
Convention Centre and Hotel Real estate/tourism $150M Construction to start in late 2009
ICT Park ICT/Real estate $115M TBC
Irrigation Project Agriculture $120M Construction to start in 2010
Fresh Food Market Agriculture $48M 2010
Flower Park Agriculture $21M As soon as funding is secured
Fruit Juice Concentrate Plant Agriculture $7M As soon as funding is secured
Milk Processing Plant Agriculture $7M As soon as funding is secured
Prodev Rwanda Agriculture $5M Implementation in Feb 2010
Planned Privatisations through the Capital Markets
Bralirwa Beverages 30% of the company 2009-10
BCR Banking 20% of the bank 2009-10
MTN ICT 50% of the company 2009-10
Planned Privatisations through trade sales
MATA Tea 60% of the company 2009-10
Shagasha Tea 60% of the company 2009-10
Gisakura Tea 60% of the company 2009-10
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www.rwandainvest.com
Bertha NIBATETE, Director of International Linkages and Initiatives [email protected] [email protected] +250 78875 8922
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Key contacts
Source: RDB