investor day – bologna, 13 th june 2003

37
NEW EUROPE DIVISION 2003-2006 STRATEGIC PLAN Roberto Nicastro Head of New Europe Division Investor Day – Bologna, 13 th June 2003

Upload: ula

Post on 01-Feb-2016

52 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

NEW EUROPE DIVISION 2003-2006 STRATEGIC PLAN Roberto Nicastro Head of New Europe Division. Investor Day – Bologna, 13 th June 2003. UCI’S NEW EUROPE CHALLENGE: THE KEY POINTS WE HOPE WILL COME ACROSS. By and large the New Europe region will allow good growth for the banking activity. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

NEW EUROPE DIVISION

2003-2006 STRATEGIC PLAN

Roberto Nicastro Head of New Europe Division

Investor Day – Bologna, 13th June 2003

Page 2: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

2

UCI’S NEW EUROPE CHALLENGE: THE KEY POINTS WE HOPE WILL COME ACROSS

By and large the New Europe region will allow good growth for the banking activity

Developing this opportunity requires to forge and implement one of the first examples of truly cross border retail banking - where we need to strike the right balance between “McDonald-banking” and tailor-made “Boutique banking”

Are we succeeding? We think so. “Industrial” progresses are evident, financial results are positive. Poland’s environment could be much better - but maybe there we’ve just hit the rock bottom …

Page 3: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

3

AGENDA

New Europe: Why and How

Recent Results

Strategy and Business Model

Three Year Plan: the Targets

Conclusions

Page 4: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

4

HIGHER GROWTH IN THE RECENT PAST AND IN THE NEAR FUTURE

* Excluding Turkey. NEC: Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Croatia, Romania, Hungary; Czech Republic; Slovenia, Turkey, 3 Baltic countries

Gap in GDP growth likely to persist for decades, as the experience of past EU enlargement processes shows (i.e. Ireland, Spain and Portugal)

A positive gap in terms of regional growth, compared to the EU market, both in the recent past and in the forthcoming period 5

Expected GDP catching up driven by: Internal demandFDIsExport, as a consequence

of further exploitation of comparative advantages

Structural funds

New Europe EU*

Real GDP growth %

2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004-06

Of which: Poland: 2.1% Other: 4.3%

Page 5: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

5

EU ACCESSION IS GETTING CLOSER FOR MOST OF OUR NEW EUROPE COUNTRIES IN A CONTEXT OF DECLINING RISKS AND GROWING STABILIZATION

Higher than 10% Romania, Turkey

Between 3 and 10% Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia

Lower than 3%2

Poland, Croatia, Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania

2002 INFLATION (avg)

Higher than 7% Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey

Between 3 and 7% Slovenia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland

Lower than 3% Bulgaria, Estonia3, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania

2002 PUBLIC DEFICIT (%GDP)

Higher than 60% Turkey

Lower than 60% Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Rep., Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia

2002 PUBLIC DEBT (%GDP)

2 The Maastricht criteria prescribes inflation to be no more than 1.5% above the average inflation rate of the lowest 3 inflation countries in the EU. The 3% threshold is thus indicative.

EU4 avg. 2.1

EU4 avg. 1.9

EU4 avg. 62.5

Countries with UCI presence

EU entry date

Moody’s Rating

Upgrade

April 02-April 03

2007B1/positive

+

20071 Baa3/stable

May 2004

A1/stable

+++

May 2004

A2/stable

++

2007B1/stable

+

May 2004

A3/stable

+++

Not defined

yet

B1/negative

-

BG

HR

CZ

PL

RO

SK

TK

1 Estimated 3 Estonia in surplus 4 EU 15 countries

Page 6: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

6

Total assets (Euro mln)

Market share both on loans and on dep.

Net income (Euro mln)

Branches

1,651(1)

2.4%

3.8(1)

29

Bulbank - Bulgaria

85.2% acquired in October 2000

End of 2002 data

Group Pekao - Poland53.2% acquired in May 1999

Total assets (Euro mln) Market share both on Loans and on Deposits

Net income (Euro mln) Branches

UniCredit – Romania 99.8% acquired in May 2002

Total assets (Euro mln)

Market share on Loans

Market share on Deposits

Net income (Euro mln)

Branches

Zagrebacka Group-Croatia Bosnia-Herzegovina 81.9% acquired in March 2002

7,190

22.6%

31.7%

103

180

UniBanka - Slovakia

Total assets (Euro mln)

Market share on Loans

Market share on Deposits

Net income (Euro mln)

Branches

847

6.1%

3.3%

5

66

76.3% acquired in October 2000

Total AuM in New Europe of Euro 1,7 bn (as at 31.03.03)

Pioneer

Koç Fin. Serv. - Turkey50% acquired in October 2002

Warsaw

Bratislava

Sofia

Zagreb

Bucarest

Prague

Istanbul

Zivnostenska Banka Czech Rep.95.04% acquired in February 2003

Other presences: Pekao Ukraina, Koc Azerbaijan

Total assets (Euro mln)Market share on LoansMarket share on DepositsNet income (Euro mln)Branches

15,75013.2%15.9%

195832

1051%2.915

Total assets (Euro mln)Market share on LoansMarket share on DepositsNet income (Euro mln)Branches

1,4068.8%

19.7%4091

Total assets (Euro mln)Market share on LoansMarket share on DepositsBranches(2)

approx. 4,7508.5%3.5%

115

(1) Source: IAS, audited data(2) Data related to Kocbank

UCI HAS ACQUIRED A WIDESPREAD PRESENCE IN NEW EUROPE, BEING AMONG THE TOP PLAYERS IN EACH MARKET

6.7%

49.1%

13.2%

3.2%

1.4%22.6%

Contribution to New Europe Total Revenues (only UCI’s portion as at 31.03.03 - pro-forma including the management account figures of Zivnostenska)

3.9%

Page 7: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

7(1) 100% of total assets and profit after tax for controlled Companies (stake > 50%) and share owned for non controlled companies (I.e. 50% Kfs)

Data as at Dec. 2002 (1)

Source: UCI Economic Research

(2) Including KFS and Zivnostenska(3) Including Nova Ljubljanska Banka

(4) After tax, before minority interest

UCI IS AMONG THE CLEAR LEADERS IN THE REGION

(5) HVB only pre-tax data available

UCI(2)

HVB/BA

SOC GEN

ERSTE

KBC(3)

CITIGROUP(6)

INTESA

RZB

Total Net Profit (mn Euro)(4)

Total Assets (bln Euro)

357

304 (5)

349

614

880

2911,221

1,332

N. of branches

2001,021

233

254

166

268

211

215 178

178419

155

10792524

17.6

22.1

29.8

25.4

31.8

14.1

12.5

11.8

Pro quota Controlled (1)

# of countries with banking presence

7

3

8

4

8

5

4

7

(6) Pro quota not available

Page 8: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

8

AGENDA

New Europe: Why and How

Recent Results

Strategy and Business Model

Three Year Plan: the Targets

Conclusions

Page 9: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

9

RECENT GROWTH SUBSTANTIAL BOTH BY SIZE AND BY VALUE CREATION

Capital Invested

CAGR +29.4%

At Current FX Perimeter for 1999: Group Pekao only; for 2000 and 2001: Group Pekao,

Bulbank, Unibanka and Splitska (sold in Apr. 02); for 2002: Group Pekao, Zagrebacka Banka, Bulbank, UniBanka, UniCredit Romania

(Euro mln)EVA(Euro mln)

ROE

Total Revenues

CAGR +28.5%

(Euro mln)

1999 2002

786

1,668

Operating Income

CAGR +51.2%

(Euro mln)

244

843

1999 2002

Cost/Income

-19.5 pp

1999 2002

69.0%

49.5%

1999 now

1,205

2,6081+10.7

pp

14.9%

4.2%

1999 2002

2002

-40

45.8

20002

1 Including KFS and Zivno (the impact of the tender offer is also included)

2 Including only Pekao

Page 10: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

10

KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FIRST PART OF THE YEAR

Divisional results negatively affected by the still not favourable macroeconomic environment (stagnant GDP, WIBOR from 10.3% to 5.7% in 12 months) and FX impact in Poland (Zloty devaluation -18.8% y/y, -9.0% on Dec02)

Volumes

Net customer loans (+4.9% y/y, +3.4% on Dec02 at unchanged FX) hit by decreased lending in Pekao more than counterbalanced by the other banks

Direct deposits (-2.4% y/y, -1.0% on Dec02 at unchanged FX) with a higher weight of securities (from 0.8% in 1Q02 to 2.1% in 1Q03) mainly driven by increased bonds in Pekao (in Poland market deposits are down)

Assets under Management: 2.3 bn in 1Q03, +33% y/y, +8.1% on Dec02

Increased net income of the division in the last quarter to 64 mln in 1Q03 (-7.7% y/y, +18.1% on Avg02 at unchanged FX) supported by an overall good cost control and a lower impact of Pekao’s provisioning

Revenues

Net interest income down by 10.9% y/y at unchanged FX as a result of a significant decrease at Bank Pekao – 20.7% y/y (3/4 spread on deposits, 1/4 spread on securities/free capital) and a good growth for the other banks

Growth in commissions +8.0% y/y at unchanged FX, despite drop in loan fees at Pekao thanks to buoyant Asset Management and Bancassurance and loan growth in the other banks

Page 11: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

11

KEY ACHIEVEMENTS IN THE FIRST PART OF THE YEAR

Securities under Custody +34% Cards +4.9% Letters of Credit +13.8%

KFS

Mortgages +17.7% Cards +6.4% AUM +11.5%

PEKAO

Investment Funds +40.2% Bancassurance at full speed (Euro 4.6

mln since March, 30% is new money) 50,000 accumulation plans sold in 4

months Staff decreasing 2.7% (-450 April on

Dec02)

ZABA

UNIBANKA

Mortgages from 0.56 to 1.62 mln Euro Packages +27.6% AUM +3.5%

+27% Italian Desk clients (400 in 10 months)

UCROMANIA

New Customer acquisition +3.9% Retail Loans up 17.6%

ZIVNOBULBANK

Corporate loans +13.1%

Page 12: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

12

ASSET QUALITY IN NEW EUROPE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY ECONOMIC SCENARIO IN POLAND, IMPROVEMENT IN ALL OTHER COUNTRIES

Net Doubtful Loans

Net NPLs and Doubtful Loans as % of Total Net Loans

80.3

2002 1Q03

80.3

63.5 62.5

Coverage ratios

On Gross Doubtful Loans

On Gross NPLs

Net NPLs

999 +7.7

+3.1396

Dec 02 % ch. (Euro mln)

1,076

408

Net Doubtful/Loans ratio up 0.4% on Dec02 impacted by a not favourable macroeconomic environment in Pekao nearly counterbalanced by an improvement in all other NE banks (Zaba -0.5pp, KFS –0.5 pp, Bulbank -0.7pp, Unibanka -0.4pp on Dec02)

Stable coverage ratio on gross NPLs loans, slight decrease on gross Doubtful due to a different mix (lower weight of NPLs)

1Q03

Net NPL/ Loans %

1Q03

Total NE +0.43.5

ch. on Dec02 (pp)

Net Doubtful/Loans %

1Q03

ch. on Dec02 (pp)

9.3-0.0

Net Loans +3.411,178 11,553

At unchanged FX

At unchanged FX

Zaba -0.52.5 4.9-0.4

Unibanka -0.44.1 4.9-0.2

Pekao +1.04.1 12.3+0.3

Bulbank 0.2 -0.72.5-0.1

KFS -0.54.0 8.6-0.7

Stable net NPLs/Net Loans ratio

Page 13: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

13

UCI’s NEW EUROPE INVESTMENTS ARE PAYING OFF

Pekao

Zaba

1,205

614

Investment (Euro mln)

9%

14%

2002 ROI1

Bulbank 242 14%

UniBanka

UCRomania

80

22

5%

13%

KFS 251 n.m.

Zivnostenska2 194 n.m.

Total 2,163 11%

Total Division 2,608 n.m.

1 Calculated on FY02 net income for the Group; FX as at 31.12.022 Including the impact of the tender offer

Page 14: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

14

AGENDA

New Europe: Why and How

Recent Results

Strategy and Business Model

Three Year Plan: the Targets

Conclusions

Page 15: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

15

Volumes growth (loans, deposits, services)

Decreasing risks

Sound industry structure

Taxation decreases

+

+++

+

+

Some margins pressure on domestic currency business with convergence

Basel II impact

(Limited) Devaluations

-

-

-

OVERALL OUTLOOK IN THE REGION MAINLY POSITIVE

Page 16: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

16

NEW EUROPE DIVISION: MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO

Overall positive part of the economic cycle

18-24 months favourable outlook, with positive GDP growth differential vs. EU. Given still slow EU recovery, internal demand continues to be the main engine of growth

Back to long term growth potential for Poland (3.6 - 4.4% growth in 2004 and 2005 respectively) and the Czech Republic (3.6 – 3.9% respectively), following recent slowdown

Continuation of positive growth dynamics in all other New Europe countries (with rates between 4% and 5%), with economic stabilisation and growth supported by EU convergence

Tax rates stabilization at current low level

EU enlargement process (first round of accessions in May 2004) and first convergence steps towards Monetary Union

Different lifecycle stages, 3 waves of entrants 2004 entrants: Poland, Slovak, Czech Republic 2007 entrants: Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia (to be confirmed) potential entrants or “close neighbours”: Turkey (Russia, Ukraina, …)

Macro stabilisation and operating environment convergence to best standards Lower level of risk Expected increase in labour cost

Page 17: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

17

NEW EUROPE DIVISION: BANKING SECTOR SCENARIO

Continuous growth of volumes in NE Countries (loans, deposits, AuM and services):

Pressure on local currency banking margins, due to convergence towards EU interest rate levels

NE Banks already operating in hard currency for a relevant part of their activities (45% at Division level)

Potential impact of Basel II Unclear impact on capital requirements Potential competitive advantage of local players not adopting advanced models Increase in relative attractiveness of retail lending

66%

224%

(Loans+Deposits)/ GDP 2002

NewEuropeEU

CAGR 13%

Lending growth

20062002

CAGR 10%

Deposit growth

20062002

Page 18: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

18

A NETWORK (NOT A PATCHWORK) OF SEVEN MULTIBUSINESS NATIONAL BANKS

STRATEGY

RISK SYSTEMS HR SYSTEMS & TRAININGPRODUCT SHELF

ORGANIZATION

IT SYSTEMSGOVERNANCE

Page 19: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

19

OUR VISION FOR NEW EUROPE CROSS BORDER BANKING ...

In 2006 the New Europe Division will be composed by a network (not a patchwork) of twin banks run by strong local management teams …

… driven by the same strategy, leveraging on the same business and organisation model, the same products and the same processes with strong central guidance …

… but also capable to adjust to the local differences (cultures, legacies, stages of lifecycle, regulations) …

… so as to become one of the first successful cross-border retail banks …

… striking the right balance between “McDonald banking” and “Boutique banking”

Page 20: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

20

… WITH A COMMON STRATEGY BY SEGMENT FOCUSED ON THE MOST ATTRACTIVE ONES …

2005 market revenue pool size = 500 Mln Euro

Source: UCI’s analysis at a constant exchange rate

Segment

Mass

Mid corporate

Private

Affluent/ Small Business

Selective development, fee-driven

Strategy

Cost focusCross selling (bancassurance, mortgage, credit cards)

Specialised service model

Highly differentiated service model

Specialised service modelMass

Affluent

Private

Small Business

Mid

Large

5%

10%

15%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%

Market revenues growth (CAGR ’01-’05, %)

2005 Net profitability (ROE , %)

STRATEGY

14

42

900

5,000

5

Number of customers (‘000), excluding dormant customers (KFS is included at 100%)

Large Corporate

2002 Total Numberof customers (‘000)

6,000

Page 21: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

21

UCR

BULBANK

PEKAO

ZABA

UNIBANKA

KFS ZIVNO

Economic Life Cycle (GDP per capita)

StartingPoint

(mkt share)Clear

Leaders

Rising Leaders

Early Markets

Advanced Markets

... AND WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LINKED, INTER ALIA, TO ECONOMIC LIFECYCLE OF COUNTRIES AND STARTING POSITION

STRATEGY

Page 22: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

22

COMMON GOVERNANCE: ROLES OF GOVERNANCE BODIES

Defines key strategic guidelines Approves budget and development plan Appoints Top Management Controls overall operations and

performance Decides on key issues proposed by

Management Board

Monitors/controls overall activity at Bank level

Steers integration process in its different phases

Ensures adequate knowledge transfer (from UCI Group, Division and other NE Banks)

Reviews or steers Bank’s strategic projects (100 in the 7 banks in 2003)Implementation progressResults achieved

Financial monthly monitoring of performance for overall Bank and by segments with quarterly monitoring of Credit TdB and Market Risk TdB

Commercial periodic performance review by segments and sub segments

Highlights performance gaps suggesting actions for improvement

Benchmark activities

MONITORING CYCLE

SUPERVISORY BOARD

AUDIT COMMITTEE

PROJECT COMMITTEE

GOVERNANCE

MANAGEMENT BOARD

Manages the bank deciding key issues, evaluating projects, strategies and

development plans

Page 23: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

23

COMMON ADVANCED PRODUCT SHELF AND JOINT FACTORIES

PRODUCT SHELF

RETAIL CORPORATEBanks that have full availability(1)

Banks that have full availability(1)

Mortgage 6

Package for Current Account 4

Bancassurance 5

Mutual Funds 6

Revolving Credit Card 3

Structured Products 3

SB Package 3

Pension Funds 4

Leasing 6

Factoring 5Advanced Derivatives (CorporateLab)

2

FX/Basic Derivatives 7

Cash Management/E-banking 7

NEW EUROPE FACTORIES Asset Management TradingLab Card Processing CorporateLab Leasing

(1) As of May, 31 2003

Page 24: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

24

BENCHMARK ORGANISATION AND SERVICE MODELS

ORGANISATION

Family Banking Division

SB/Affluent Division

Private Banking Division

Corporate Banking Division

CEOs/COOs Pekao UniBanka UCR

FULLY DIVISIONALIZED

Zaba KFS Bulbank Zivno

DIVISIONALISATION IN PROGRESS

Segment dedicated Corners/Points of Sale1

Specialised Account Managers/ Hunters/ Sales People

109

623 2,590

30

47

248

1,259

1 Excluding KFS and Zivno

1,012

TOTAL FRONTLINE: 18,500

Pekao: 12,000 UniBanka: 480 UCR: 175

Zaba: 2,900 Bulbank: 1,190

KFS: 1,470 Zivno: 310

1,718

Other2

2 KFS (100%), Zivnostenska and other non segment dedicated sales-force

Page 25: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

25

BENCHMARK ORGANISATION AND SERVICE MODELSORGANISATION

DIFFERENT STAGES OF COMPLETION IN KEY AREAS

OUTSOURCING Maintenance and building Security Cash handling Management of mailings …

MISSION OF TREASURY Limited proprietary portfolio Focus on commercial activities

on behalf of customers

KEY OPERATING PROCEDURES Credit underwriting Budgeting/strategic planning Antimoney laundering …

PURCHASING CENTRALIZATION

BRANCH MODEL BACK-OFFICE ORGANIZATION

BENCHMARKING

AND

IMPLEMENTATION

OF BEST PRACTICE

BUSINESS MODEL

Page 26: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

26

SAME TARGET IT SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS

IT SYSTEMS

IT POLICY IS BASED ON:

Development of homogeneous target systems for strategic application areas (Credit, MIS/CRM, Sales Force management, architecture, facility management), with tailored approach for language, regulations and legacies

Reliance on standardized/already tested IT solutions and applications (minimise proprietary development; decrease cost/elapsed time)

Reduce Operative Risks (Disaster recovery/Business continuity solution; anti money laundering)

Improve time to market through a centralized development approach

“CLONE” IT

SYSTEMS

“CLONE”

APPLICATIONS

IT STRATEGIC FOR:

Revenues boost

Cost of risk

Operating risk

Operating costs

Page 27: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

27

SAME TARGET RISK SYSTEMS AND PROCEDURE, BY THE END OF 2004 IN ALL BANKS

RISK SYSTEMS

WorkoutManagementUnderwriting

Corporate

Small Businesses

Retail

1. Electronic underwriting tool

2. Credit rating system

4. Credit management system

3. Application processing system

6. Workout Unit

5. Anomalies management system

7. Collection system

8. New credit corporate governance

9. Credit Tableau de Bord

10. Credit Academy (1,200 credit officers, 1,000 risk managers)

Cross-bank project

Page 28: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

28

Increase quality of first line managers

Develop second line talent pools, also via cross-border experiences

Develop the best performing commercial networks top quality of branch managers and relationship managers (assessment centres /

substitution) training to pivotal positions and to local trainers

Develop best risk manager skills in the region quality of credit officers and relationship managers training to credit officers and to local trainers

Rejuvenating staff turnover higher than “natural pace” to change mix and quality of resources strong focus in selecting junior with high potential and internally train/grow them

Creation of NE Banking Academy for local trainers, senior management and pivotal jobs

Creation of NE Banking MBA

COMMON HR SYSTEMS AND TRAININGS HR SYSTEMS AND TRAINING

Page 29: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

29

UCI’S NEW EUROPE STRATEGY BASED ON A CONSISTENT NEW EUROPE BUSINESS MODEL BOTH BY INTEGRATION OF ITS KEY COMPONENTS ...

STRATEGY GOVERNANCE

RISK SYSTEMS HR SYSTEMS & TRAININGPRODUCT SHELF

IT SYSTEMS

ORGANIZATION

Page 30: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

30

... AND BY APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENT OF THE NEW EUROPE BUSINESS MODEL TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENTS

Page 31: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

31

AGENDA

New Europe: Why and How

Recent Results

Strategy and Business Model

Three Year Plan: the Targets

Conclusions

Page 32: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

32

NEW EUROPE DIVISION: STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES 2003-2006

Different strategic focus with: “Leading Banks” in 3-4 countries: N.1 player in the market, focused on constant

improvement of bottom line while maintaining market shares and fulfilling their institutional role within local communities

“Emerging Leaders” in 3-4 countries: banks focused on growth through enlargement of Golden Customer’s base (customer acquisition program) with final goal of being in the “top 5” in the market

Clear N.1 Banking Group in New Europe for profitability, value creation, cost/income and for AUM (double digit market share)

Best risk manager in the New Europe region

Focus on building a long term sustainable franchise and on assuring higher customer loyalty, through a superior quality of services

Future growth driven mainly by organic growth (with some potential acquisitions)

Possible completion of geographic coverage in New Europe, also leveraging on “managerial hubs” (eg. Zaba, Pekao)

Page 33: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

33

OUR 2006 FINANCIAL TARGETS

EVA(Euro mln)

2002 2006

461

221

RARORAC %

2002 2006

4.92

12.1

ROAE %

2002 2006

13.44

20.7

Avg. Cost of Equity %

2002 2006

14.2 14.6

Avg. Allocated Capital

2002 2006

9363

1,832

ROAA %

2002 2006

1.25

2.0

Tier 1 Ratio %

2002 2006

17.214.2

(Euro mln)

1 Euro 14 mln including KFS and Zivno (2006 perimeter) 4 14.9% excluding KFS and Zivno (2002 historical perimeter)

3 Euro 1,168 mln including KFS and Zivno (2006 perimeter)

2 1.2% including KFS and Zivno (2006 perimeter) 5 1.4% excluding KFS and Zivno (2002 historical perimeter)

11.9

Forward CoE taking into account EU

convergence

Page 34: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

34

Front Office Staff/ Tot. Staff2

67%60%

2002 2006

Branches2

1,6281,3323

2002 2006

OUR 2006 COMMERCIAL PERFORMANCE TARGETS

Gross Loans/Deposits72.7%

58.4%1

2002 2006

VOLUMES (eop) CAGR 02-06

REVENUES

CAGR 02-06: +8.8%

REVENUES CAGR 02-06

Net Interest Income /Avg. Assets

3.9%3.6%

Active Customers2 (mln)7.0

6.0

2002 2006

15% 20% golden

other

2002 2006

2002 pro -forma, consistent with 2006 perimeter (including Zivno and KFS)At current FX

1 55.7% excluding KFS and Zivno (2002 historical perimeter)2 KFS is included at 100%

Gross Loans

14.8%

AuM

44.0%

Deposits

8.7%

Corporate

17.7%

Retail

11.3%

3 1,184 excluding KFS and Zivno (2002 historical perimeter)

Page 35: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

35

OUR 2006 COST TARGETS

Employees5

COST/INCOME

2002 2006

51.6%1

45.2%

28,18831,0064

2002 2006

3 Including deposits insurance and indirect taxes

2002 pro -forma, consistent with 2006 perimeter (including Zivno and KFS)

DECREASING COST OF RISK:

2002 2006

1892158

Net Provisions/Net Loans (bp)

2 335 bp including the impact of 2002 extraordinary provisions (Euro 168 mln)At current FX

4 26,531 excluding KFS and Zivno (2002 historical perimeter)

1 49.5% excluding KFS and Zivno (2002 historical perimeter)

Operating Costs

CAGR 02-06: 5.3%

Staff Costs

CAGR 02-06: 2.8%

Other costs3

CAGR 02-06: 6.1%

Depreciation

CAGR 02-06: 11.7%

5 KFS 100%

Page 36: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

36

AGENDA

New Europe: Why and How

Recent Results

Strategy and Business Model

Three Year Plan: the Targets

Conclusions

Page 37: Investor Day  – Bologna, 13 th  June 2003

37

UCI’S NEW EUROPE CHALLENGE: THE KEY POINTS WE HOPE WILL COME ACROSS

By and large the New Europe region will allow good growth for the banking activity

Developing this opportunity requires to forge and implement one of the first examples of truly cross border retail banking - where we need to strike the right balance between “McDonald-banking” and tailor-made “Boutique banking”

Are we succeeding? We think so. “Industrial” progresses are evident, financial results are positive. Poland’s environment could be much better - but maybe there we’ve just hit the rock bottom