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Page 1: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Investor Presentation Investor Relations

July 2018

Page 2: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

A strong and integrated value chain

2

EBITDA margin 1)

22.6% Industrial ROCE 2)

13%

Forestland

2.6m ha

Net growth

3.0m m3fo

Sales (SEKm)

16,664 EBITDA 1) (SEKm)

3,761

Forest Wood

Pulp Paper

Note: 1) Adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margin. 2) Adjusted ROCE for the industrial segments; Wood, Pulp

and Paper. ROCE adjusted for capex invested in the Östrand project.

Financial figures refer to 2017.

Renewable

energy

Page 3: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Europe’s largest private forest owner

Kraftliner mill

Paper mill

Pellet production

Pulp mill

Saw mill

Saw mill, partly-owned

6% of Sweden

Productive forestland

2.0m ha

Forestland

2.6m ha

Standing volume

232m m3fo

Munksund

Obbola

Rundvik

Gällö

Bollstabruk

Östrand

Ortviken

Tunadal

Härnösand

Stugun

3

Page 4: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Global trends favoring fiber based renewable materials

4

Growing

demand for

virgin fiber

E-commerce

Increased

demand for

renewable

materials

Eco-awareness

More packaged

goods

Page 5: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Cash flow funded growth opportunities

5

Time

ROCE Leverage Credit rating

Integrated

value chain

SEK 7.8bn investment

Production began in June

Further growth potential

Östrand expansion

20152018

Joint venture with St1 signed

Biofuel production

from crude tall oil

20192021

SEK 196m investment

+50kt white-top kraftliner

Increase share of

White-top Kraftliner

20182019

Pre-project to prepare for expansion at Obbola

Kraftliner expansion

20192021/22

Agreements signed for construction in 2018-2020

5.0 TWh wind

power on SCA land

2020

SEK 50m pilot plant

Environmental permit

Biorefinery

optionality

2025?

Valu

e

Page 6: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Profitable growth strategy

6

Renewable energy – the next value creator

Wood – moving forward in the value chain

Pulp – start-up of a SEK 7.8bn investment

Paper – Kraftliner expansion

Forest – the source for value creation 1

2

3

4

5

Growing

forest asset

Increased

value from

each tree

Page 7: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Forest – the source for value creation

Page 8: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

The forest is our source for value creation

8

Growth Harvesting Land value

Page 9: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

146

232

1950 2017

Profitable growth since 1950

9

Standing volume

million m3fo

+60%

Harvest plan

million m3sub

2.0

4.3

1950 2017

+120%

Land value 1)

SEK/m3fo (real value)

109

396

1950 2017

+260%

Note: 1) Average price Sweden, real price (2017 price level). Source Lantmäteriet.

Increasing

cash flow

Increasing

cash flow

Increasing

land value

Growing

asset base

Page 10: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Significant real growth of 3.5%

10 Note: 1) Corresponding to approximately 4.3m m3sub.

Gross growth of standing forest

Natural losses and pre-commercial thinning

Available growth of standing forest

Annual harvesting

Annual net increase of standing forest

9.5

-1.3

8.2

-5.2

3.0

Forest growth metrics (m m3fo)

(1) Current cash flow

New harvesting plan every 8-10 years

Harvesting increase to >7m m3fo in 2114

Future cash flow

Real growth rate of 3.5% (in relation to the standing

volume of 232m m3fo)

Page 11: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Forest – strategic direction

Increase sustainable harvesting level

Prevent further restrictions in ownership rights

Maximize growth

11

Secure biodiversity for future generations

Secure raw material supply

Page 12: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Paper – Kraftliner expansion

Page 13: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Kraftliner – strategic growth area

Munksund – grow the share of value-added

products: white-top, heavy duty and wet strength

Obbola – increase production capacity and

improve efficiency

Publication paper – maximize

cash flow

Positive cash-flow through operational excellence

and optimized product and market mix

13

Page 14: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Prepare for profitable growth in Kraftliner

14

1. Increase share of White-top in Munksund

SEK 196m investment

White-top Kraftliner capacity increased from 150k tonnes to 200k tonnes

Expected completion in May 2019

2. Transfer mid-grammage brown products from Munksund to Obbola

Investment enables contribution optimization of Obbola paper mill

Cost savings in addition to increased share of White-top at Munksund

3. Expand capacity and reduce costs of goods in Obbola

Environmental process initiated

Pre-project to prepare for Kraftliner expansion at Obbola initiated

Page 15: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Favorable long-term trends for Kraftliner

15

E-commerce – 20% growth CAGR

Increasing world trade

Shelf ready packaging

Substitution of plastics

Favorable long-term trends... ...driving demand for virgin fiber

Kraftliner demand Europe / Growth CAGR

k tonnes

Source: Numera.

Food safety 2012 2017 2022e 2026e

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2.7% ~2%

~2%

White

Unbleached

Page 16: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Operating rates (shipment-to-capacity)

Increased capacity needed to meet demand

16

Kraftliner growth limited by shortage of supply

Source: Numera.

Virgin

Recycled

+800kt

capacity

needed by

2026

Not enough supply to

satisfy demand

Page 17: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Opportunity for increased capacity

Infrastructure

Chemical pulp

Technical requirements

New ~800 kt paper machine

Expansion of existing pulp line

• Virgin fiber

• Recycled fiber

Potential investment decision

based on outcome of pre-project

Obbola one of few brown field

opportunities in Europe Pre-project to prepare Kraftliner expansion at Obbola initiated

450

Total capacity Obbola (ktonnes/year)

Present New capacity

17

Access to fresh fiber

700-800

Leading non-integrated

supplier

Page 18: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Pulp – start-up of a SEK 7.8bn investment

Page 19: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

World’s largest NBSK pulp line in operation

19

7.8 SEKbn

investment

Production began in June according to plan

• On budget and on time

Ramp-up period of 12-18 months

• 2018 – volumes in line with 2017

• 2020 – first full year at full capacity

Meeting long-term growth in

tissue and white packaging

World-class competitiveness

and cost position

Page 20: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

1mt pulp mill with enhanced competitiveness

20

World-class competitiveness

• Doubled NBSK capacity

• Fixed cost reduction of SEK 350 per tonnes compared to pre project level

• Improved energy balance – from a net consumer of 0.1 TWh to a net producer of 0.5 TWh

• Wood supply secured, but with potentially higher transportation cost

• Leading pulp quality for tissue products

100,000 100,000

430,000

900,000 NBSK

Present

Post completion

Total capacity (tonnes/year)

CTMP

Page 21: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

22

23

26

2007 2012 2017

…driving increased tissue demand

and shortage of virgin fiber Strong market growth…

26

34

0.1

24

Bleached Softwood Kraft Bleached Hardwood Kraft

Sulfite Unbleached Kraft

Mechanical pulp

Growing demand for pulp

21 Source: CEPI, RISI, PPPC, SCA.

Growing tissue demand,

shrinking supply of high

grade recycled fiber from

Printing & Writing

CAGR

+3.4%

Total: 66

Global market (m tonnes)

0.9%

CAGR Index (global market)

CAGR

-1.8%

Tissue production

Printing & Writing consumption

1.8%

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

BSK

BHK

Page 22: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Pulp – strategic direction

22

Ramp-up

Start-up

Quality

1

2

3

Page 23: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Renewable energy – the next value creator

Page 24: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Östrand investment enables biofuel potential

24

Doubled tall oil production Net energy producer 1) Energy and

production optimization

60,000

tonnes

Energy

surplus Synergies

Note: 1) Net energy producer at Östrand.

Page 25: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

SCA and St1 to start a joint venture for the production of biofuels from tall oil

25

Reduction of CO2 by blending biofuels

• Sweden: 21% diesel and 4.2% gasoline by 2020

• EU: 7% renewable energy in transport

The HVO market is growing rapidly due to

its compatibility with fossil diesel

Joint venture with St1 for the production of liquid biofuels

• Moving forward in the value chain

• SEK ~0.5bn investment by JV

• Annual production of ~100k tonnes HVO or biojet

• SCA to supply ~60k tonnes CTO out of ~170k tonnes

• Additional products include LPG, Naphtha, Turpentine

and Pitch bioenergy

Development of HVO volume in Sweden

Source: SPBI.

Note: HVO = Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Mo

nth

ly H

VO

vo

lum

e (k

m3)

HVO drop in

13% share

in Swedish

transport sector HVO

Page 26: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Biorefinery potential enabled through the Östrand investment

Environmental permit application for two full scale

biorefinery lines initiated

Renewable energy – the next segment?

SEK 50m invested in a pilot plant in Obbola for the

production of liquid biofuels from black liquor

Energy surplus and byproducts from pulp

production create opportunities in biorefinery

Long-term

potential

2025?

Investments enable debottlenecking of the

recovery boiler

26

Page 27: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Doubled wind power production by 2020

27

2.3

2.7 Land available through leasing

Land with excellent wind conditions 5.0 TWh

Target of 5.0 TWh by 2020 will be exceeded

EBITDA contribution of SEK 60-70m by 2020

Construction scheduled

to start in 2018-2020

Current wind power

on SCA land

Page 28: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Wood – moving forward in the value chain

Page 29: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

One of the largest and most efficient sawmill operations in Europe

29

From 11 to 5 highly automated and efficient sawmills

Average capacity/

mill: (m3/year) 160k 430k

1.8m m3

2.2m m3

2007 2017

11

sawmills

5

sawmills

SEK ~2.0bn invested since

2007

Rundvik

Munksund

Bollsta

Tunadal

Gällö

Jämtlamell

Rundvik

Munksund

Holmsund

Vilhelmina

Bollsta

Tunadal

Gällö

Tjärnvik

Boden

Graninge

2007 2017

Page 30: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Long-term profitable growth with focus on value added products

30

Wood sales (SEKbn)

1.1

4.7

6.0

1997 2007 2017

Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade

+9% p.a.

Profitable growth

Higher and more stable

margins over a business

cycle

Customized products

based on customer

insights

Page 31: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

31

Product innovation

Pine heartwood decking

Outdoor cladding with concealed fitting

Page 32: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Wood – strategic direction

32

Continued profitable growth through focus on:

• Building Materials Trade in Scandinavia, UK and France

• Industrial customers with high demand for customized products

Optimized production sites for world-class efficiency:

• Well invested large scale units

• Focus on automatization and optimization

Digitalization

• New tools and services for a growing e-commerce market

Page 33: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Q2 summary

Page 34: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

724

1,049 1,078

1,175

1,034

17%

25%

25% 27%22%

Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18

SCA’s performance Q2 2018

EBITDA development (SEKm)

Note: 1) ROCE for the industrial segments; Wood, Pulp and Paper (* Industrial ROCE adjusted for capex

invested in the Östrand project). ROCE calculated as LTM.

EBITDA margin

22.1%

Industrial ROCE 1)

13% / 19%*

Net debt/EBITDA

1.7x

EBITDA (SEKm)

1,034 43%

34

Excluding Pulp

Page 35: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

35

Contribution by segment and quarter Paper

Net sales (SEKm)

Pulp Forest Wood

295 338 325 364

316 358

304

371

23% 26% 25%

30% 25%

28% 23%

32%

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

1,2

61

1,2

96

1,3

12

1,2

10

1,2

61

1,2

87

1,2

98

1,1

62

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

1,8

59

1,9

98

2,0

46

2,0

72

2,0

96

2,2

20

2,3

83

2,4

26

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

1,3

20

1,3

61

1,3

64

1,6

37

1,5

67

1,4

26

1,5

03

1,8

46

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

668

668

641

585

644

672

589

485

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

143 161 145 154 187 184 172

230

11% 12% 11% 9% 12% 13% 11% 13%

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

160 102 104

71

158 149 178

-112

24%

15% 16% 12%

25% 22%

30%

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

293 271 268 291

439 481

586 618

16% 14% 13% 14%

21% 22% 25% 26%

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

EBITDA (SEKm) and EBITDA margin

Page 36: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

36

Forest Q2 2018 vs. Q2 2017

1,210 1,162

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

364 371

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

30.1% 31.9%

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

-4% 2%

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Stable wood supply to industries

Continued price increases, especially for imported

wood

Inventory build-up to meet Östrand’s increasing

pulpwood demand

Sales down 4%

• Lower volumes due to the expansion stop at Östrand

EBITDA up 2%

• Higher prices

80

90

100

110

120

Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18

Pulpwood Sawlogs

Price development – Pulpwood and Sawlogs

Page 37: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

37

Wood Q2 2018 vs. Q2 2017

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18

Price index SEK

1,637 1,846

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

154

230

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

9.4%

12.5%

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Price development – Solid Wood Products

13% Continued strong demand with increasing prices

Low inventory levels

Sales up 13%

• Higher prices

EBITDA up 49%

• Higher prices

• Positive currency effects

• Increased raw material costs

49%

Page 38: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

38

Pulp Q2 2018 vs. Q2 2017

585

485

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

71

-112

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

12.1%

-23.1%

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Price development – NBSK Pulp

Expanded Östrand pulp mill in operation • Expansion stop to complete the final

stage of the sequential start-up

• Limited production in the quarter

• Production began in June 2018 according to plan

• SEK 6.6bn invested up to Q2, out of SEK 7.8bn in total

Strong pulp market with further price increases

Sales down 17% • Lower deliveries due to the expansion stop

• Higher prices

Negative EBITDA • Planned costs related to the start-up

of the expanded pulp mill

95

105

115

125

135

145

Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18

Price index SEK

-17%

Page 39: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

39

Paper Q2 2018 vs. Q2 2017

80

100

120

140

160

Q2'16

Q2'17

Q2'18

Price index SEK

2,072

2,426

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

291

618

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

14.1%

25.5%

Q2 2017 Q2 2018

80

100

120

140

160

Q2'16

Q2'17

Q2'18

Price development –

Kraftliner

Price development –

Publication paper

17% 112%

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Continued strong Kraftliner market

Improved market for Publication paper

Sales up 17%

• Higher Kraftliner prices

EBITDA up 112%

• Higher Kraftliner and Publication paper prices

• Positive currency effects

• Stable cost development

Page 40: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

40

Balance sheet

SEKm Jun 30, 2018 Dec 31, 2017

Forest assets according to IAS 41 1) 31,693 31,386

Deferred tax relating to Forest assets -6,529 -6,905

Forest assets, net of deferred tax 25,164 24,481

Working capital 3,150 2,861

Working capital/Net sales 2) 17% 18%

Other capital employed 16,200 15,377

Total capital employed 44,514 42,719

Net debt 7,348 5,966

Net debt/EBITDA 3) 1.7x 1.6x

Equity 37,166 36,753

Net debt/Equity 20% 16%

Note: 1) Gross value before deferred taxes. 2) Calculated as an average of working capital for 13 months as

a percentage of 12-month rolling net sales. 3) 12-months EBITDA, up to end of each period.

Page 41: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

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Page 42: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

1929 SCA founded

SCA’s transformation journey

42

1975-2006 Acquisitions :

• Mölnlycke, Sweden

• PWA, tissue, Germany

• Georgia-Pacific, AfH tissue, USA

Divestments:

Packaging business

Two publication paper mills

2007-2016 Acquisitions:

• Vinda, tissue, China

• P&G, tissue, EU

• Georgia-P., tissue, EU

2017 split

Forest Products

1929

Forest Products

and Packaging 2006

Hygiene

Forest Products

Hygiene

2016

2017

Forest Products

Divestments:

• Packaging

• Two publication paper mills

Page 43: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

12/Jun 3/Jul 24/Jul 14/Aug 4/Sep 25/Sep 16/Oct 6/Nov 27/Nov 18/Dec 8/Jan 29/Jan 19/Feb 12/Mar 2/Apr 23/Apr 14/May 4/Jun 25/Jun 16/Jul

Vo

lum

e (th

ou

san

ds)

Sh

are

pri

ce

(S

EK

)

Volume (B-share Nasdaq Stockholm) SCA B OMX Stockholm 30 (rebased SCA B) Q-report

Share price development

43

June 12

Opening price

SCA B: 61.60

Closing price

SCA B: 62.60

Share price development since distribution of Essity

June 12

Opening price

SCA B: 61.60

Closing price

SCA B: 62.60

Q3

Current market cap

SEK 63billion

Source: FactSet.

Note: As of July 20, 2018.

+43%

-4%

Q4

Q2

Q1

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Shareholder structure

44 Source: Monitor.

# Shareholder Capital Votes

1 Industrivärden 9.5% 29.7%

2 Norges Bank 7.2% 9.6%

3 Handelsbanken Pensionsstiftelse 1.4% 3.4%

4 AMF Försäkring & Fonder 4.7% 3.0%

5 Swedbank Robur Fonder 4.0% 2.2%

6 BlackRock 3.5% 1.9%

7 Livförsäkringsbolaget Skandia 0.5% 1.4%

8 Pensionskassan SHB Försäkringsförening 0.7% 1.3%

9 Schroders 2.3% 1.3%

10 Vanguard 2.2% 1.2%

Top 10 36.0% 55.1%

Others 64.0% 44.9%

Total 100.0% 100.0%

SCAs largest shareholders as of June 30, 2018

Number of shareholders

~96,000

Swedish ownership

~47%

Number of shares

~702m

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Page 46: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Growing forest asset

Page 47: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Swedish forest transformation

47

Exploitative selective logging of the 1920’s 1) The forest landscape of today

Note: 1) Source SLU, Skogsbilder.

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Silviculture

Fertilization

Improved seedlings

Introduction of lodgepole pine

Improved practices has increased growth

48

Growth plan at different taxations (standing volume / hectare)

2

3

4

1

Source: SCA measurements and estimates.

Note: Taxation = forest inventorisation. Lodgepole pine = Pinus contorta.

2014

+14 m3fo/ha

Tax IX vs

Tax VI

1984

+7 m3fo/ha

Tax VI vs

Tax II

m3fo/ha

2017 232m m3fo

2.0m ha

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024

Tax II (1953-54) Tax VI (1983-84) Tax IX (2012-13)

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Young forests and lodgepole pine drive biological growth

49

High share of young forests currently in a strong growth phase

Age classification Standing volume, %

Strong growth phase

33% of volume

61% of growth

0-20

Lodgepole pine

9% of volume

18% of growth

Tree species Standing volume, %

Spruce

Deciduous 1%

33%

18%

48%

15%

9%

40%

36%

Pine

21-50

51-80

80+

Source: Tax IX (2013).

Note: Lodgepole pine = Pinus contorta.

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Planning, planning, planning

50

Planning key

to increase

growth

Fre

qu

en

cy

Calculation of sustainable yield – 100+ years

• Inventories, recalculations every 6-10 years

i

Ecological landscape plans – 100+ years • Set aside areas, areas for special management

ii

Stand selection for harvesting plans – 10 years

• Estimations of volumes and qualities

iii

Road construction – 5 years iv

Operational field planning for harvests – 1-3y

• Seasonal adaptions, consultations reindeer herding

v

Supply planning – month, week, day

• Balancing harvesting, wood transport and industry supply

vi

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Improved seedlings

51

The world’s largest forest tree nursery with

capacity to produce 100 million seedlings per year

Selective breeding bring seed with higher quality,

survival rate and growth

On site R&D to improve growth and protection

Innovative seedling systems

>25% faster

growth potential

than natural

regeneration

Page 52: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Global climate change

52 Source: Skogsstyrelsen.

Note: Based on base case which includes a significant decrease in emissions. Areas

furthest from the equator will receive the largest changes.

Increased growth in northern Sweden

3-4˚C increase

in temperature

by 2100

Global warming will have a significant

impact on the climate in northern Sweden Increased risk

Significant longer growth period –

earlier in spring, later in autumn

25-30% increased growth

by the end of the century

Increased risk for storms, fire,

infestation and snow damage

Damage to soils and water due to

shorter period of ground frost

×

×

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Increase in both standing volume and harvesting level

53

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Cutting plan Timber harvest

Harvesting from own forest (m m3sub) Standing timber volume (m m3fo)

Increasing cash flow

+165%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Growing asset base

Based on

current

practices

Note: Historic growth based on Tax I-VIII. Current growth and forecast based on Tax IX (2013)

and current practices.

+75%

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Nature conservation impacting current harvesting level

54

Age (y): <0 1-20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100 101-120 >120

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Forest holding by age class (by area – ha)

Harvestable age

Large share of the forest in harvestable age

is saved for nature conservation

High share of young forests currently in a

strong growth phase

• Harvesting will rise when the younger forests

reach harvestable age around 2035

Nature conservation

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Responsible forest management

55

Voluntary set-asides

Nature considerations during harvesting

operations

Alternative forms of forest management

Sum (over the rotation

period of the forest)

5-8%

10-15%

3-5%

~20%

% of productive

forest land Nature conservation areas

21% currently

excluded from

harvesting

≥5%

~5-10%

~10-15%

FSC

requirement

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Coaching and business development

4

Technological and organizational development drives productivity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

55 65 75 85 95 05 15

Productivity development (m3sub/ day’s work)

Storm felling

56

Technical development

1

Instruction, training and feedback

Ownership structure

2

3

Technical revolution

Organizational development

Page 57: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Efficient wood sourcing organization secures wood supply

57

Wood sourcing

to industries

10m m3sub

Europe’s largest

private forest owner

2.6m ha

Control of

infrastructure

8 terminals

Murjek

Luleå

Piteå Storuman

Hoting

Lycksele

Umeå

Rundvik

Bollsta

Östavall

Bensjö

Krokom

Töva Sundsvall

Kiruna

Härnösand

Terminal

Industry (pulp wood)

Industry (saw logs)

Forest district

Wood supply unit

Plant nursery

Train/truck boarder

Railway

SCA’s forest holding

timber

50% self

sufficiency

Östersund

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Attractive offering for local forest owners

58

Harvesting services – leading cost position

Silviculture and advisory services

Strong financial and industrial partner

SkogsvingeTM – a digital tool

i

ii

iii

iv

Relationship

with 14,000 forest owners

Page 59: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Paving the way for a renewable future

59

SCA’s growing forest binds ~4m tons CO2

annually and provide renewable materials

95% fossil free production

21% of the productive forest land is excluded

from harvesting to preserve biodiversity

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels

reduced by ~50% since 2010

Our forests will be as rich in timber,

biodiversity and nature experience

as today

Page 60: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Europe’s largest private forest owner

60

High productivity and efficient value chain

Securing timber and biodiversity for future generations

Stable and long-term increasing harvesting rate

Significant growth through young forest and active management

Sustainable forest management

Page 61: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Increased value from each tree

Page 62: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Capital allocation

62

Stable and

increasing

Supported

by strong

cash flow

Creating

Shareholder

Value Capital Structure

Investment

Grade Rating

Net Debt

to EBITDA

Integrated

value chain

High return

projects M&A

Real growth

of 3.5%

Strategic

Investments

Dividend

Forest Asset

Creating

Shareholder

Value

Page 63: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Value creation for the forest owner

63

Revenue

63% Volume

48% Price

~510 Revenue

37% Volume

52% Price

~280

Saw logs Pulp wood

Note: Price in SEK/m3sub.

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Integrated value chain creates significant value add from one tree

EBITDA margin 2)

22.6%

Wood raw material 1) (m m3sub)

~9

Note: 1) Excluding chips from own sawmills. 2) Adjusted EBITDA margin. 3) Adjusted ROCE for the

industrial segments; Wood, Pulp and Paper (adjusted for capex invested in the Östrand project).

4) Net sales and other income. Financial figures refer to 2017.

+ Wood products

+ Pulp

+ Publication paper

+ Kraftliner

+ Chips

+ Pellets

+ Wind power

+ District heating

+ Green electricity

+ Combined logistics

SCA 2,000+

Industrial ROCE 3)

13%

Income / m3sub 4)

Saw logs ~510

Pulp wood ~280

Forest owner ~390

x5

64

Growing

forest asset

Increased

value from

each tree

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65

Investment in value chain drives profitability

Time

Valu

e

20192021/22

SEK 7.8bn inv.

Production began in June

Östrand

expansion

20152018

Agreements signed for construction in 2018-2020

5.0 TWh wind

power on SCA land

2020

Joint venture with St1 signed

HVO production

from CTO

20192021

Pre-project to prepare for expansion at Obbola

Kraftliner

expansion

SEK 50m pilot plant

Environmental permit

Biorefinery

optionality

2025?

SEK 196m investment

+50kt white-top kraftliner

Increase share

of WT Kraftliner

20182019

Increase value from byproducts

Increase

value add

Utilization

of land

Growing

forest asset

Increased

value from

each tree

20192021/22

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312295

338325

364

316

358

304

371

25%

23%

26%25%

30%

25%

28%

23%

32%

Q2'16

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

Forest seasonality

66

Net sales (SEKm)

1,2

34

1,2

61

1,2

96

1,3

12

1,2

10

1,2

61

1,2

87

1,2

98

1,1

62

Q2'16

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

EBITDA (SEKm) Harvesting of own forest (k m3sub)

1,3

22

898

1,3

68

664

1,3

53

964

1,4

68

695

1,4

14

Q2'16

Q3'16

Q4'16

Q1'17

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

High level of harvesting from own

forest in Q2 and Q4

Revaluation of forest – lower revaluation

when harvesting from own forest is high

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<0 1-20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100 101-120 >120

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Thinning

Factors affecting relative profitability

67

Price to industry

• Market prices, externally sourced wood sold at cost

i

Harvesting efficiency

• Industry leading cost position

ii

Young forest currently in a strong growth phase

• Lower harvesting level

• Higher level of thinning and share of planted forest

iii

Gains from wood swaps

• Attributed to industry

iv

Capital gains on land swaps and land sale v

Nature conservation

Age (y):

Final harvesting

80+

Income / m3 Index

Price 100

Harvesting cost -25

Gross profit 75

~40 & ~60

Income / m3 Index

Price 80

Harvesting cost -40

Gross profit 40

Silviculture

Fertilization

~40 & ~70

Pre com. thinning

~10

Road construction

Inco

me

C

os

ts

Fo

res

t h

old

ing

by a

ge

Increased profitability as fast growing

young forest reaches harvestable age

Note: Forest holding by hectare.

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Internal market prices

68

m m3sub

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

SCA wood sourcing SCA wood usage

Own forest

Chips from

own sawmills Pulp and

paper

Sawmills

Locally

purchased

Central

suppliers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

SCA wood sourcing SCA wood usage

Wood sourcing 2017 Wood sourcing post Östrand

Own forest

Chips from

own sawmills

Pulp and

paper

Sawmills

Locally

purchased

Central

suppliers

Supplies industry segments with wood

Sold at market price

• Prices based on market prices in SCA’s

region

Price premium for certified forest

No EBITDA contribution from externally

sourced wood (sold at cost to industry)

• Östrand investment will increase Forest’s

sales but not EBITDA

Page 69: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Leading cost position

69

Economies of scale

• Europe’s largest private forest owner

• Relationship with 14,000 forest owners

Optimization and efficient

forest management

Industry leading cost position

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

85 90 95 00 05 10 15

Storm felling

SCA harvesting cost

Consumer price index

Harvesting cost (index)

1

2

3

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Forest portfolio optimization through buying and selling land

70

SCA’s land purchases 2014 2015 2016 2017

Volume (thousand m3fo) 1,655 185 123 261

Price (SEK/m3fo) 264 273 263 259

Value (SEKm) 437 50 32 68

SCA’s land divestments 2014 2015 2016 2017

Volume (thousand m3fo) 1,405 270 176 385

Price (SEK/m3fo) 322 310 274 270

Value (SEKm) 452 84 48 104

1

2

3

Stable price at

~270 SEK/m3fo

Move forest closer to the industry

1

Improve forest consolidation

Swap of land for nature reserves

Legal restrictions

• Prevailing law in Sweden prohibits legal

entities from the net purchase of forest land

from private individuals

2

3

×

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Improving forest consolidation

71

Forest land swaps Acquisition of land to create larger consolidated areas

Counterparty’s forest land

SCA’s forest land

SCA gains

SCA gives to counterpart

Forest ownership in Roggsjön 1955 Forest ownership in Roggsjön 2017

Page 72: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

Wood swaps drive both financial and environmental gains

72

Wood swaps totaling 1-1.5m m3sub annually

Cost saving from lower transportation costs

Reduced emissions

Collaboration with several large forest owners

SEK 60m

annual saving

Page 73: Investor Presentation - SCA › globalassets › sca › investerare › ... · 2018-07-25 · Wholesalers Wood Industry Building Materials Trade +9% p.a. Profitable growth Higher

IAS 41 valuation

73

300

350

400

450

500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Price assumption (nominal SEK/m3sub)

Harvest assumption (million m3sub/year)

Accounting valuation and regulations

Forest valuation is divided into two components • Actual land – IAS 16 Property, plant and equipment

− At acquisition cost (acquired long ago) and road investments

• Growing forest – IAS 41 Biological assets

IAS 41 principals • Calculation based on existing harvesting plans, growth

assessments and technology

• No global warming effects included

• Environmental restrictions taken into account

• Latest forest survey conducted in 2012-2013

• New assessment approximately every 8 years

Assumptions

• WACC 5.25%

• Price and cost based on 5 year averages

• 2% price and cost inflation

Harvesting plan

4.35.9 by 2114

CAGR

+2%

Price assumption 2017

432 SEK/m3sub

Book value

135 SEK/m3fo

+40%

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74

Market valuation of forest assets

Assumptions

• WACC / required return

• Price

Forecast harvesting plan

• Growth and harvesting

• Improved seedlings

• Silviculture and fertilization

• Technical development

• Climate change

Land value

• Land value not included in IAS 41

135

259 270 276

Book value SCApurchases

SCAdivestments

LRF northernSweden

Value of forest land (2017, SEK/m3fo)

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76

Clear focus on premium priced high quality products

Price

Quality

Wood containing

products

Wood free

products

Recycled based

products

Expanding high-

quality offering

– competing with

wood free products

Fast product renewal – 35% of current

products did not exist 5 years ago

Launch of SCA Frontier

• New paper category – Fine wood

containing paper

• Competing with wood free paper

• Cost effective paper

• Well received in the market

76

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This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current expectations and

are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could negatively affect our business. Please read SCA’s most recent

annual report for a better understanding of these risks and uncertainties.