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Investor Update November 2015

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Page 1: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Investor Update November 2015

Page 2: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Investor Update November 2015

Page 3: Investor update nov 2015 v5

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and

Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words

and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,”

“projects,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not

mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are

based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date

this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and

assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such

forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking

statements include fluctuations in NGL, crude oil and natural gas prices, and petrochemical and refining margins; unexpected changes in costs for

constructing, modifying or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or

disruptions in, adequate and reliable transportation for our NGL, crude oil, natural gas and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for

remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher

cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/or

regulatory factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is

under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise.

This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of

the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT Cautionary Statement

2

Page 4: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Strategy

3

Operating

Excellence

Growth

Returns

Distributions

High-Performing

Organization

Committed to safety, reliability and environmental stewardship while

protecting shareholder value

Reshaping our portfolio by capturing growth opportunities in Midstream

and Chemicals

Enhancing returns by maximizing earnings from existing assets and

investing capital efficiently

Committed to dividend growth, share repurchases and financial strength

Building capability, pursuing excellence and doing the right thing

Page 5: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Operating Excellence

4

Industry Average

Total Recordable Rates (Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked)

’12 ’13 ’14

1H

’15

Refining Environmental Metrics

Refining Capacity Utilization (%)

Operating Costs and SG&A ($B)

Phillips 66 CPChem DCP

See appendix for footnotes.

5.7 5.7 5.8 2.7

0.3

0.2

2012 2013 2014 1H 2015

Growth

430 317 300

154

2012 2013 2014 1H 2015

93% 93% 94% 87%

3% 3% 4% 9%

2012 2013 2014 1H 2015

Planned Maintenance & Turnarounds

Page 6: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Global Energy Landscape

5

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Global Oil Supply Global Oil DemandSource: International Energy Agency

Global Oil Supply and Demand (MMBD)

Abundant supply

Demand exceeding expectations

Energy efficiency increasing

Page 7: Investor update nov 2015 v5

U.S. Energy Landscape

6

0

3

6

9

12

15

2010 2012 2014 2016

Crude & Condensate NGLSource: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook , November 10, 2015

U.S. Liquids Production (MMBD)

NGL production remains resilient

Pace of infrastructure investment

contingent on production growth

Stronger fuels demand

Page 8: Investor update nov 2015 v5

U.S. Downstream Advantage

7

0

5

10

15

20

Ethane CrackerMargin, cpp

Natural Gas,$/MMBtu

Brent - WTI,$/bbl

Current

Historical

U.S. Advantage

Refiners and chemical

manufacturers remain advantaged

Low feedstock costs

Low energy costs

Scale and complexity

MLP structure supports midstream

investment

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 9: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Value of Integration

8

EV/EBITDA Multiples

Creating value across downstream

Accelerating growth

Leveraging existing portfolio

Allocating capital efficiently

Expanding multiple

See appendix for footnotes.

5.4x 6.7x 7.1x 14.5x

RefiningPeers

PSX ChemicalsPeers

MidstreamPeers

Page 10: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Midcontinent Integrated Growth

9

Midstream

$280 MM EBITDA growth

Palermo rail terminal/Sacagawea pipeline (PSXP)

Dakota Access/ETCO crude pipelines

Refining, Marketing & Specialties

$430 MM EBITDA growth

Ponca City

Yield improvement project

Tight oil processing flexibility

100% lease crude purchases

Wood River

Dilbit capacity increase

ULSD expansion

FCC modernization

Billings

Vacuum tower project

Marketing & Specialties

Grow branded fuels volumes

Enhance Phillips 66 brand

Marketing JVs and Alliances See appendix for footnotes.

Page 11: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Western Gulf Creating a World-Class Energy Complex

10

Midstream

$750 MM EBITDA growth

Sweeny Fractionator One

Freeport LPG export terminal

Cross-channel connector (PSXP)

Eagle Ford crude pipeline

Sweeny Fractionator Two

Refining, Marketing & Specialties

$70 MM EBITDA growth

Sweeny

FCC yield improvement

Marketing & Specialties

Grow unbranded fuels volumes

Focus on high-quality branded assets

Increase high-margin exports

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 12: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Eastern Gulf Refining Logistics and Midstream Growth

11

Midstream

$200 MM EBITDA growth

Beaumont terminal expansion: +7 MMBbls

Bayou Bridge pipeline

Alliance clean products dock

Refining, Marketing & Specialties

$150 MM EBITDA growth

Lake Charles

FCC yield improvement

Increase feedstock advantage

Alliance

Increase light crude runs

Marketing & Specialties

Grow unbranded fuels volumes

Leverage brand value through licensing

Increase high-margin exports

Grow performance lubricants and export sales See appendix for footnotes.

Page 13: Investor update nov 2015 v5

West Coast Enhancing Returns

Midstream

$60 MM EBITDA growth

Completed Ferndale rail rack 4Q 2014 (PSXP)

Los Angeles waterborne crude tank

Santa Maria rail rack

Refining, Marketing & Specialties

$60 MM EBITDA growth

San Francisco

Hydrocracker debottleneck

Yield improvements

Los Angeles

FCC energy reduction

Marketing & Specialties

Grow branded and unbranded fuels volumes

Enhance 76 brand

Increase high-margin exports

Grow export lubricant sales

12

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 14: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Atlantic Basin Enhancing Returns

Midstream

$50 MM EBITDA growth

Completed Bayway rail rack 3Q 2014 (PSXP)

Bayway LPG loading facility

Refining, Marketing & Specialties

$200 MM EBITDA growth

Bayway

FCC reactor modernization

Yield improvements

Marketing & Specialties

Grow JET and COOP brands in Europe

Increase unbranded volumes in the U.K. and U.S.

Expand brand licensing in the U.S.

13 See appendix for footnotes.

Page 15: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Midstream

14

DCP EBITDA excluded.

See appendix for additional footnotes.

0.3

1.1 0.7

0.9

0.4

1.2

2.3

PSXP 2Q2015 Run-

Rate EBITDA

PSXOperating

Assets

ProjectsUnder

Construction

Planned 2018E

EBITDA

in

PSXP

EBITDA

Remaining

at PSX

2015 2016 2017 2018

Sweeny Midstream Hub

Phase 1

Sweeny Midstream Hub Expansion

Eagle Ford Crude Pipeline

Beaumont Terminal Expansion

Bayou Bridge Pipeline

Bakken Expansion (PSXP)

EBITDA ($B)

More than $20 B backlog of projects

Page 16: Investor update nov 2015 v5

PSXP Value to PSX

0

5

10

15

2013 2014 1H2015

2018E

Cumulative DropdownProceeds

CumulativeDistributions

Cumulative Cash from PSXP ($B)

0

5

10

15

2013 2014 2015E 2018E

PSX Equity Value of PSXP

Distributions ($B)

Fee-based assets

Growth opportunities

Organic

Drop downs

Selective acquisitions

Funds Midstream growth

See appendix for footnotes.

15

Page 17: Investor update nov 2015 v5

$550 MM 2015 growth capital

$500 MM EBITDA growth by 2018

Placing current projects into service in 2015 Keathley Canyon

National Helium Plant expansion

Zia II Plant and Gathering

Lucerne 2 Plant and Gathering

Sand Hills Laterals

DJ Basin Grand Parkway

Increasing fee-based earnings

DCP Midstream

16

See appendix for footnotes.

New plant

G&P plant

Proposed Pipeline

Page 18: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Chemicals

17

Self-funded capital program

$6.5 – 7 B growth spending

36% U.S. O&P capacity growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 15 30 45 60 75

M.E.

Ethane

N.A. Ethane

N.A. LPG

M.E. LPG/Naphtha

W. Europe

Naphtha

N.A. Naphtha

W.

Europe

LPG

Asia

Naphtha Asia LPG

Cumulative Capacity MM Tons

June 2015 YTD Average Ethylene Production Cost Curve

($/ton)

Petrochemical demand driven

by global GDP growth

Cost-advantaged feedstocks

High capacity utilization

supports strong margins

Rest of World

China Coal

CPChem

Asia Import

price

~$1,200/ton

Source: Wood MacKenzie

Page 19: Investor update nov 2015 v5

CPChem Projects Update

18

$1.5 B EBITDA growth by 2018

Completed 1-hexene project and 10th Sweeny

furnace in 2014

NAO expansion

100 kMTA at Cedar Bayou, TX

Completed 2Q 2015

USGC Petrochemicals

1,500 kMTA (ethylene) at Cedar Bayou, TX

1,000 kMTA (polyethylene) at Old Ocean, TX

Planned start-up mid-2017

New cracker under consideration

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 20: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Refining Enhancing Returns

19

11% 12% 15%

2009 - 2014Avg

ConstantMargin

Improvements

2015EAdjusted

ConstantMargin FutureImprovements

2018E

Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)

Significant free cash flow generation

High-return projects creating

sustainable earnings increases

EBITDA growth: $850 MM

Increasing ROCE 4% by 2018

Expansive footprint provides

leverage for Midstream growth

2.5 1.6

0.9

CFO Sustaining Capex FCF

2009 – 2014 Average Annual Free Cash Flow ($B)

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 21: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Marketing & Specialties High-returning businesses

20

$250 MM EBITDA growth by 2018

33% ROCE

U.S. Marketing

Wholesale model

Enhancing fuels brands

Volume growth

International Marketing

Retail / wholesale model

Adding 100+ sites

Specialties

Grow Lubricants earnings and

international portfolio

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 22: Investor update nov 2015 v5

3.7

2.7

6.6 1.0 1.5

2.4

CFO SustainingCapex

FCF PSX Growth Est. PSXPContributions

2018EAvailable

Cash Flow

Phillips 66 Available Cash Flow

21

Annual Available Cash Flow ($B)

Diversified cash generation

Funding transformational growth

Growing distributions

Financial flexibility

Strong free cash flow yield

2009 – 2014 Average See appendix for footnotes.

Page 23: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Capital Allocation

22

Ensuring financial flexibility

Investment grade credit rating

Strong balance sheet

Funding growth

Cash from operations

PSXP proceeds

Returning capital to shareholders

Dividend growth

Ongoing share repurchases

Distributions Reinvestment

2014 – 2016E

Page 24: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Capital Budget

23

$2.6 B Growth capital

Legacy, scalable Midstream assets

Fee-based assets suitable for PSXP

dropdown

Quick payout Refining projects

$1.3 B Sustaining capital

Maintaining safe, reliable assets

Announced 2016 $3.9 B

Sustaining Refining Returns

M&S Growth Midstream Growth

PSXP Growth

Page 25: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Dividend Growth (Quarterly ¢/share)

Distributions

624 MM

590 MM

533 MM

$7.3 B

20

56

Share Count and Capital Returned

3Q2012 4Q2013 3Q2015

24

3Q2012 4Q2013 3Q2015

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 26: Investor update nov 2015 v5

6.4

9.3

2009 - 2014avg

MidstreamGrowth

ChemicalsGrowth

RefiningReturns

M&SGrowth

2018E

Refining Midstream Chemicals M&S

Delivering Value

25

Adjusted Constant Margin EBITDA ($B)

45% EBITDA growth

Growing Midstream and Chemicals

Enhancing returns in Refining

Realizing benefits of reinvestment

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 27: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Compelling Investment

26

Shareholder returns

Unique portfolio

EBITDA growth

Disciplined capital allocation

Multiple expansion

-20%

20%

60%

100%

140%

180%

May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15

PSX +181%

S&P 100 +58%

Page 28: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Institutional Investors Contact C.W. Mallon

Manager, Investor Relations

[email protected]

832-765-2297

Page 29: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Investor Update November 2015

NYSE: PSXP

www.phillips66partners.com

Page 30: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Cautionary Statement

29

This presentation contains forward-looking statements as defined under the federal securities laws, including projections, plans and

objectives. Although Phillips 66 Partners believes that expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no

assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition, these statements are subject to certain risks,

uncertainties and other assumptions that are difficult to predict and may be beyond Phillips 66 Partners’ control. If one or more of these

risks or uncertainties materialize, or if underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from what Phillips 66

Partners anticipated, estimated, projected or expected. The key risk factors that may have a direct bearing on the forward-looking

statements in the presentation are the accuracy of our assumptions used to estimate the benefits to be realized from Phillips 66

Partners’ acquisition of interests in certain joint ventures that own or control midstream pipeline assets (the “acquisition”), our ability to

successfully integrate the assets into our operations, the decisions made by Explorer Pipeline Company, DCP Sand Hills Pipeline, LLC,

and DCP Southern Hills Pipeline, LLC regarding distributions these entities make to us as an equity owner, and other factors as

described in the filings that Phillips 66 Partners makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of these risks,

uncertainties and assumptions, the events described in the forward-looking statements might not occur or might occur to a different

extent or at a different time than as described. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of the date hereof and

Phillips 66 Partners undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise. This presentation is not, and under no circumstance is to be construed to be, a prospectus,

offering memorandum, or advertisement and is not an offer to sell securities. The SEC and state securities regulators have not

reviewed or determined if this presentation is truthful or complete.

Non-GAAP Financial Measure Disclosure

Today’s presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under Regulation G of the Securities Exchange Act of

1934, as amended. A reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in the appendix to

this presentation.

Page 31: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Phillips 66 Partners Ownership Structure

30

Phillips 66 Partners GP LLC

(PSXP General Partner)

General Partner Units

IDRs

Operating Subsidiaries

PSXP Public

Unitholders

(NYSE: PSX)

(NYSE: PSXP)

100% ownership

interest

29% limited partner

interest

Joint Ventures

2% general

partner interest

69% limited partner

interest

Page 32: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Phillips 66 Partners

31

Strong alignment with Phillips 66

Highly integrated assets

Stable and predictable cash flows

Significant growth potential

Financial flexibility

Pecan Grove Marine Dock

Page 33: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Phillips 66 Partners Financial Highlights

32

Distributable cash flow

Adjusted EBITDA

$64.5 MM

$73.4 MM

0.2125 0.2248

0.2743 0.3017

0.3168 0.3400

0.3700 0.4000

0.4280

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015

*

(MQD)

Coverage

Ratio 1.13x 1.10x 1.10x 1.44x 1.32x 1.28x 1.14x 1.15x 1.40x

Distribution / LP Unit ($)

* Represents the minimum quarterly distribution for 3Q 2013, actual distribution of $0.1548 equal to MQD prorated

See appendix for footnotes.

3Q 2015

Page 34: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Q1 2015 Acquisition

33

Drop down assets 33.3% interest in Sand Hills NGL pipeline

33.3% interest in Southern Hills NGL pipeline

19.5% interest in Explorer refined products pipeline

$1.1 B acquisition Asset-level 2015E EBITDA of $115 million

Implied 9.5x purchase multiple on assets’ 2015E EBITDA

Assets supported by long-term, fee-based

agreements, primarily under take-or-pay terms

Additional organic growth opportunities through

identified expansion projects

Page 35: Investor update nov 2015 v5

34

$300 MM Announced 2016 Organic Growth Plan

Bayou Bridge Pipeline

Sacagawea Pipeline

• Transports crude from Nederland, TX to Lake Charles, LA, and St. James, LA

• Increases crude supply options for LA refineries

• Expected completion of Lake Charles leg in 1Q 2016

• Expected completion of St. James segment in 2017

• 76-mile Sacagawea Pipeline and central delivery facility for gathering systems

• Connection into 100 MBD Palermo crude oil rail-loading facility

• Provides increased logistics options for shippers in the Bakken region

• Expected terminal completion in 4Q 2015; pipeline completion in 2016

Sand Hills Pipeline • Adding lateral connections and increasing pumping capacity

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 36: Investor update nov 2015 v5

35

Highly Integrated Assets

Palermo Rail Terminal expected to be operational Q4 2015.

Page 37: Investor update nov 2015 v5

36

Fee-based, Long-term contracts provide stability

Asset Initial Term (years) Maximum Term with Options (years)

Clifton Ridge to Lake Charles 10 20

Sweeny to Pasadena 10 20

Hartford Connector 23 * 23

Gold Line 10 15

Sand Hills 15 15

Southern Hills 15 15

Explorer Various Various

Clifton Ridge terminal 5 20

Clifton Ridge / Pecan grove docks 5 20

Pasadena terminal 5 20

Pasadena and Hartford truck racks 5 20

Gold Line terminals 5 15

Medford Spheres 10 20

Bayway Rail Rack 10 20

Ferndale Rail Rack 10 20

* Includes PSX JV Wood River Refinery to Hartford and Hartford to Explorer pipelines. The term of the Hartford Connector throughput and deficiency agreement began in January 2008

Pip

elin

es

Te

rmin

als

/ S

tora

ge

Page 38: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Adjusted EBITDA and DCF

37

33.4 37.2

41.9

47.8

64.5

Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Distributable Cash Flow ($MM)

35.9

43.7 49.0

57.0

73.4

Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)

Page 39: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Balanced Debt Maturity Profile

38

2020 2025 2045

5-year notes

2.646% coupon

10-year notes

3.605% coupon

30-year notes

4.68% coupon

$1.1 B debt issuance February 2015

5-Year $300 MM notes

10-Year $500 MM notes

30-Year $300 MM notes

Average cost of 3.64%

BBB (stable) / Baa3 (stable)

$3

00

MM

$5

00

MM

$3

00

MM

Page 40: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Financial Flexibility

39

Investment grade credit rating

Target 3.5x debt / EBITDA

30% distribution CAGR through 2018

Target 1.1x annual coverage ratio

Support Phillips 66 Midstream growth

Page 41: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Closed 1st

acquisition -

$700 MM

Closed 2nd

acquisition -

$340 MM

40

Total Return Since IPO

PSXP 177%

Alerian MLP Index -18%

IPO

Closed 3rd

acquisition -

$1.1 B

Source: Bloomberg

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

150%

170%

190%

210%

230%

250%

Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15

Page 42: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Institutional Investors Contact

C.W. Mallon - Investor Relations [email protected] 832-765-2297

Page 43: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Appendix

Page 44: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Segment Strategy

43

Refining:

Enhance Returns Midstream: Growth Chemicals: Growth

Marketing and

Specialties:

Selective Growth

Execute Sweeny hub

Grow integrated

Transportation system

PSXP as a funding vehicle

Expand DCP G&P

Pursue organic and M&A

opportunities

Grow CPChem organically

Advance olefins and

polyolefins projects

Capitalize on domestic

feedstock advantage

Leverage proprietary

technology

Optimize crude slate

Expand export capability

Increase yields

Maintain cost discipline

Enhance portfolio

Expand European retail

marketing

Grow lubricants

Ensure domestic refinery

pull-through

Page 45: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Free Cash Flow 2013 – 1H 2015 Average

44

0.9 1.3

0.7 0.3

CFO & Drop Proceeds Sustaining Capex Available Cash Flow

1.2 1.0

0.2

CFO Sustaining Capex FCF

Midstream ($B) Chemicals ($B)

CFO excludes working capital.

Average from 2013 – 1H 2015

DCP Midstream, CPChem and WRB free cash flow calculated at the enterprise level

2.7 1.8

0.9

CFO Sustaining Capex FCF

1.0 0.9

0.1

CFO Sustaining Capex FCF

Refining ($B) Marketing & Specialties ($B)

PSXP Drop

Proceeds

Page 46: Investor update nov 2015 v5

33%

21%

21%

5%

M&S

Chemicals Refining

Midstream

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Average Capital Employed ($B)

Corporate

-7%

YTD 2015 Adjusted ROCE

45

P66 Total

15%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

Page 47: Investor update nov 2015 v5

22.0 21.6 23.2

6.2 8.7 7.9

5.0 5.2 4.7

22%

29%

25%

2013 2014 Q3 2015

Equity $B Debt $B Cash & Cash Equivalents $B Debt to Capital

Capital Structure

46

20- 30%

Excludes PSXP.

Page 48: Investor update nov 2015 v5

2015 Sensitivities – Phillips 66

47 Sensitivities shown above are independent and are only valid within a limited price range.

Annual Net Income $MM

Midstream - DCP (net to Phillips 66)

10¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 30

$1/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 25

$10/BBL Increase in WTI price 15

Chemicals - CPChem (net to Phillips 66)

1¢/Lb Increase in Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 35

Worldwide Refining

$1/BBL Increase in Gasoline Margin 220

$1/BBL Increase in Distillate Margin 200

$1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 50

$1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 40

$1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 15

$1/BBL Widening LLS / Medium Sour Differential (LLS less Medium Sour) 15

$1/BBL Widening ANS / WCS Differential (ANS less WCS) 10

10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (10)

Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators:

Page 49: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Phillips 66 2015 Capital Program

48

Sustaining Growth Total

Capital Expenditures and Investments

Consolidated

Midstream(1)

Transportation 148 1,084 1,232

NGL 19 1,912 1,931

167 2,996 3,163

Chemicals - - -

Refining(2) 813 299 1,112

Marketing and Specialties 78 92 170

Corporate(2) 155 - 155

1,213 3,387 4,600

Selected Equity Affiliates

DCP 125 275 400

CPChem 187 1,266 1,453

WRB 150 53 203

462 1,594 2,056

Capital Program(3)

Midstream

Transportation 148 1,084 1,232

DCP 125 275 400

NGL 19 1,912 1,931

292 3,271 3,563

Chemicals 187 1,266 1,453

Refining 963 352 1,315

Marketing and Specialties 78 92 170

Corporate 155 - 155

1,675 4,981 6,656

(1) Includes 100% of Phillips 66 Partners

Millions of Dollars

2015 Budget

(2) Includes non-cash capitalized leases of $11 million in Refining and $21 million in Corporate and Other

(3) Includes Phillips 66's share of capital spending by DCP, CPChem and WRB, which are expected to be self-

funded.

Page 50: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Phillips 66 2016 Capital Program

49

Page 51: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Footnotes

50

Slide 4

Injury statistics do not include major projects.

Industry Averages are from: Phillips 66 – American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) refining

data, CPChem – American Chemistry Council (ACC), DCP – Gas Processors Association (GPA).

Growth component of operating costs is estimated based on forecasted growth spending.

Slide 7

Current based on last 4 quarters: 3Q 2014 – 2Q 2015 average

History based on 2000 – 2013 average

Ethane Cracker Margin: Advantage is N.A. ethane margin (Spot) less N.E. Asia naphtha margin (Spot)

(source: I.H.S.)

Natural Gas: Advantage calculated as average of ICE NBP gas and Japan natural gas LNG import price

less Henry Hub (source: Morningstar)

Brent – WTI: Brent Dated less WTI at Cushing (source: Morningstar)

Page 52: Investor update nov 2015 v5

Footnotes

51

Slide 8

Average of company EV (daily EV 1/1/2015 – 8/31/2015) and 2016 consensus EBITDA as of 8/31/2015.

Refining Peers is average of: DK, HFC, MPC, PBF, TSO, VLO, WNR

Chemicals Peers is average of: CE, DOW, EMN, HUN, LYB, WLK

Midstream Peers is average of: EPD, ETE, OKE, TRGP

Source: Bloomberg

Slides 9 – 13

EBITDA growth is 2018 estimated run-rate EBITDA of projects completed second-half 2014 or later.

Slide 14

PSX Operating assets EBITDA includes Refining Logistics. Refining Logistics represents terminaling,

storage and other logistics assets currently embedded in the Refining segment. Amount represents an

estimate of the EBITDA potential of these assets if they were transferred to Midstream and market-based

fees for their use were charged to the Refining segment.

Projects under construction and planned EBITDA growth is 2018 estimated run-rate EBITDA of projects

completed second-half 2014 or later. PSXP EBITDA includes EBITDA attributable to Phillips 66

noncontrolling interests.

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52

Slide 15

PSXP is a consolidated subsidiary of PSX. Accordingly, quarterly cash distributions paid from PSXP to

PSX, and consideration paid by PSXP to PSX in a dropdown transaction, both eliminate in consolidation

and do not impact PSX’s consolidated cash balance, except to the extent PSXP funds consideration for a

dropdown transaction with public debt and equity offerings.

PSXP equity value based on LP distributions multiple of 20x and GP distributions multiple of 30x.

Slide 16

Amounts presented are on a DCP Midstream 100% basis, and include DPM (100%). EBITDA growth is

2018 estimated run-rate EBITDA of projects completed since 2014 based on normalized price and volume

assumptions.

Slide 18

EBITDA growth is 2018 estimated run-rate EBITDA of the following projects: 1-hexene, 10th Sweeny

furnace, NAO expansion project and USGC petrochemical project. $1.5 B estimated incremental EBITDA

based on 2012 industry margins.

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53

Slide 19

EBITDA growth is 2018 estimated run-rate EBITDA of projects completed second-half 2014 or later.

CFO excludes working capital. WRB free cash flow calculated at the enterprise level.

2015E ROCE includes project and operational improvements since 2014 on a constant margin basis.

Future improvements include estimated run-rate improvement of projects completed by 2018.

Slide 20

EBITDA growth is 2018 estimated run-rate EBITDA of projects completed second-half 2014 or later.

ROCE is YTD through Q3 2015 annualized.

Slide 21

CFO excludes working capital. Available Cash Flow growth is 2018 estimated run-rate Free Cash Flow of

projects completed primarily second-half 2014 or later. Assumes joint ventures distribute 100% of growth

EBITDA.

PSXP contributions to PSX include distributions and PSXP funding for organic growth capital and drop-

downs. See footnotes to slide 15 for an explanation of the impact of PSXP drop proceeds on Phillips 66’s

consolidated cash balance.

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54

Slide 24

Capital returned includes the 2014 PSPI share exchange and excludes dividend payments.

Slide 25

Corporate not included in bars on chart, but included in totals.

Midstream EBITDA excludes EBITDA attributable to Phillips 66 noncontrolling interests.

EBITDA growth is 2018 estimated run-rate EBITDA of projects completed primarily second-half 2014 or

later.

Slide 26

Chart reflects total shareholder return May 1, 2012 to November 2, 2015. Dividends assumed to be

reinvested in stock on payment date.

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Non-GAAP Reconciliations

55

Forecasted Available Cash Flow

Forecasted available cash flow estimates were primarily derived on a forecasted EBITDA basis, with

adjustments for estimated interest and tax payments and sustaining capital expenditures. Accordingly, all the

elements required for forecasted cash from operations are not available. Generally, the timing of working

capital impacts would be the primary difference between forecasted available cash flow and forecasted cash

from operations.

Forecasted EBITDA estimates were primarily derived on an EBITDA-only basis (revenue and cost projections).

Accordingly, all the elements required for forecasted net income, including income taxes, interest expense, and

depreciation and amortization, are not available. Together, these items generally result in a significant uplift in

EBITDA over net income. Run rate EBITDA reflects annualized forecasted EBITDA estimates of assets

immediately upon completion/acquisition.

Forecasted EBITDA

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56

Millions of Dollars

Average 2009-2014

Refining Free Cash Flow

Numerator

Cash From Operations GAAP 2,615$

Less: Change in Non-Cash Working Cap. 152

Cash From Operations (excluding WC) 2,463

Less: P66 Equity affiliate cash from ops 584

Add: Equity look through cash from ops 573

Adjusted FCF (excl WC) 2,452$

Total Capex GAAP 1,038$

Less: Growth Capex 287

Sustaining Capex 751

Less: P66 Equity affiliate sustaining capex -

Add: Equity look through sustaining capex 134

Adjusted Sustaining Capex 885$

Free Cash Flow 1,567$

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57

Refining

Marketing &

Specialties

ROCE

Numerator

Net Income 1,127 727

After-tax interest expense 0 0

GAAP ROCE earnings 1,127 727

Special Items 344 (34)

Adjusted ROCE earnings 1,471 693

Denominator

GAAP average capital employed* 13,377 2,743

Discontinued Operations - -

Adjusted average capital employed* 13,377 2,743

Average Adjusted ROCE (percent) 11% 25%

Average GAAP ROCE (percent) 8% 27%

*2014 Total equity plus debt.

Average 2009-2014

Millions of Dollars

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58

Millions of Dollars

Average 2009-2014

Phillips 66 Free Cash Flow

Numerator

Cash From Operations GAAP 3,650$

Less: Change in Non-Cash Working Cap. (128)

Cash From Operations (excluding WC) 3,737$

Total Capex GAAP 3,773$

Less: Growth Capex 2,788

Sustaining Capex 985$

Free Cash Flow* 2,752$

* Not adjusted for equity affiliates.

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59

Midstream Chemicals Refining

Marketing &

Specialties Corporate Phillips 66

Adjusted EBITDA by Segment Reconciliation

Net income attributable to Phillips 66 657$ 729 1,127 727 (292) 3,100

Less:

Income from discontinued operations - - - - 151

Plus:

Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 12 - - - 12

Provision for income taxes 241 292 687 409 (176) 1,452

Net interest expense - - (1) (19) 126 106

Depreciation and amortization 86 - 668 128 34 916

EBITDA 996$ 1,021 2,481 1,245 (308) 5,434

Adjustments (pretax):

EBITDA attributable to Phillips 66 noncontrolling interests (17) - - - - (17)

Proportional share of selected equity affiliates income taxes 3 76 2 - - 81

Proportional share of selected equity affiliates net interest 108 20 (119) - - 9

Proportional share of selected equity affiliates depreciation and amortization166 215 208 - - 589

Gain on asset dispositions (308) - (16) (78) - (401)

Gain on share issuance by equity affiliate (23) - - - - (23)

Impairments 100 22 456 12 4 594

Cancelled projects - - 25 - - 25

Severence accruals - - 9 - - 9

Exit of a business line - - - 9 - 9

Pending Claims and settlements (6) - 16 (11) - (1)

Premium on early debt retirement - 24 - - - 24

Repositioning Costs - - - - 14 14

Hurricane-related costs - - 9 - - 9

Tax law impacts - - (4) (1) - (5)

Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments - 1 7 - - 8

Adjusted EBITDA* 1,021$ 1,377 3,074 1,176 (289) 6,359

* Proportional share of selected equity affiliates is net of noncontrolling interests.

Millions of Dollars

Average 2009 - 2014

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60

Midstream Chemicals Refining

Marketing &

Specialties

FCF Yield

Numerator

Cash From Operations GAAP 750$ 597 2,557 1,177

Less: Change in Non-Cash Working Cap. 12 - (330) 168

Cash From Operations (excluding WC) 738 597 2,887 1,009

Less: P66 Equity affiliate cash from ops 200 597 749 -

Add: Equity look through cash from ops 372 1,170 564 -

Adjusted FCF (excl WC) 910$ 1,170 2,702 1,009

Total Capex GAAP 869 - 415 176

Less: Growth Capex 728 - (343) 120

Sustaining Capex 142 - 758 56

Less: P66 Equity affiliate sustaining capex - - - -

Add: Equity look through sustaining capex 133 200 109 -

Adjusted Sustaining Capex 275$ 200 867 56

Free Cash Flow 635$ 970 1,835 952

Millions of Dollars

Average 2013-1H 2015

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61

Phillips 66 Midstream Chemicals Refining

Marketing &

Specialties Corporate

ROCE

Numerator

Net Income 3,614$ 132 750 2,145 956 (369)

After-tax interest expense 153 - - - - 153

GAAP ROCE earnings 3,767 132 750 2,145 956 (216)

Special Items (94) 116 20 6 (236) -

Adjusted ROCE earnings 3,673$ 248 770 2,151 720 (216)

Denominator

GAAP average capital employed* 31,853$ 6,104 4,883 13,637 2,933 4,296

Discontinued Operations - - - - - -

Adjusted average capital employed* 31,853$ 6,104 4,883 13,637 2,933 4,296

*Total equity plus debt.

Annualized Adjusted ROCE (percent) 15% 5% 21% 21% 33% -7%

Annualized GAAP ROCE (percent) 16% 3% 20% 21% 43% -7%

*Total equity plus debt.

Millions of Dollars

YTD Q3 2015

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Non-GAAP Reconciliations

62

Adjusted

Phillips 66

Phillips 66

Partners

Phillips 66

Consolidated

Total Debt 6,155 - 6,155

Total Equity 21,983 409 22,392

Debt-to-capital ratio 22% 22%

Total Debt 8,666 18 8,684

Total Equity 21,622 415 22,037

Debt-to-capital ratio 29% 28%

Total Debt 7,851 1,100 8,951

Total Equity 23,227 805 24,032

Debt-to-capital ratio 25% 27%

YTD Q3 2015

Millions of Dollars

2013

2014

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63

Adjusted EBITDA forecasts were derived on an EBITDA-only basis. Accordingly, elements of net income including tax

and depreciation information are not available. Together, these items generally result in a significant uplift in EBITDA

over net income.

2018E Adjusted EBITDA/ EBITDA project backlog post 2018

Millions

of Dollars

Year ending February 29 2016

Reconciliation of PSXP Estimated EBITDA to Estimated Net Income*

Estimated net income 82$

Plus:

Depreciation 20

Interest expense 4

Income taxes 9

Estimated EBITDA 115$

*Amounts reflect the sum of EBITDA and net income forecasts within each joint venture, multiplied

by PSXP's expected ownership interest.

PSXP Run Rate EBITDA

PSXP 2014 and 2018 run rate EBITDA estimates were derived on an EBITDA-only basis. Accordingly, elements of net

income including tax and depreciation information are not available. Together, these items generally result in a

significant uplift in EBITDA over net income. Run rate EBITDA reflects annualized EBITDA projections of assets

immediately upon acquisition.

Page 65: Investor update nov 2015 v5

PSXP Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow

Reconciliation to Net Income

64

$ MM

3Q 2015 2Q 2015 1Q 2015 4Q 2014 3Q 2014

Net Income $ 52.3 $ 42.0 $ 35.4 $ 36.3 $ 30.0

Plus:

Depreciation 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.2

Net interest expense 9.1 9.5 5.8 2.1 1.4

Amortization of deferred rentals 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Provision for (benefit from) income taxes 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 0.2 0.1

EBITDA 67.3 56.8 46.6 43.2 35.8

Distributions in excess of equity earnings 4.6 0.2 0.7 - -

Expenses indemnified or prefunded by Phillips 66 1.1 - 0.3 0.1 0.7

Transaction costs associated with acquisitions 0.4 - 1.4 1.0 0.2

EBITDA attributable to predecessors - - - (0.6) (0.8)

Adjusted EBITDA 73.4 57.0 49.0 43.7 35.9

Plus:

Adjustments related to minimum volume commitments 2.4 2.2 1.1 (2.4) 1.4

Phillip 66 prefunded maintenance capital expenditures - - - 0.1 -

Less:

Net interest 9.1 9.5 6.5 1.4 1.7

Income taxes paid - 0.4 - - -

Maintenance capital expenditures 2.2 1.5 1.7 2.8 2.2

Distributable Cash Flow 64.5 47.8 41.9 37.2 33.4