ioos neg wave 1 - northwestern 2014

8/15/2019 IOOS Neg Wave 1 - Northwestern 2014

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Topicality


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Topicality 1NC- Oceans

A. Interpretation- the Earth’s Oceans are the 5 major oceans

NALMS 1 – North American Lake Management Society, “WATER WORDSGLOSSARY”, htt!""###$na%m&$org"home"'(%ication&"#ater)#or*&)g%o&&ary"O$cm&+OEANGenera%%y, the #ho%e (o*y o- &a%t #ater #hich co.er& near%y three -o'rth& o- the&'r-ace o- the g%o(e$ The a.erage *eth o- the ocean i& e&timate* to (e a(o't/0,111 -eet 20,341 meter&56 the greate&t reorte* *eth i& 07,8/9 -eet 2/1,701meter&5, north o- Min*anao in the We&tern :aci;c Ocean$ The ocean (ottom i& agenera%%y %e.e% or gent%y 'n*'%ating %ain, co.ere* #ith a ;ne re* or gray c%ay, or, incertain region&, #ith oo)/4 ercent, ca%ci'm &a%t&7 ercent, #ith &ma%%er amo'nt& o- .ario'& other &'(&tance&$ The *en&ity o- ocean

#ater i& a(o't /$184 2re%ati.e to *i&ti%%e* #ater, or 're ?8O5$ The ocean& are*i.i*e* into the At%antic, :aci;c, @n*ian, Arctic, an* Antarctic Ocean&$

An!" the #e!eral $o%ernment is the central $o%ernment"!istin$&ishe! #rom the statesOE' () 2O+-or* Eng%i&h Dictionary, 8e*$ @, $ =3>5($ O- or ertaining to the o%itica% 'nity &o con&tit'te*, a& *i&ting'i&he* -rom the&earate &tate& como&ing it$

*. +iolation- the IOOS is not limite! to ,S action- itincl&!es state" re$ional" an! pri%ate sectors

IOOS report to con$ress 1/ BOCcia% S @OOS reort &ent to congre&&$ 81/0, “$S$ @ntegrate* OceanO(&er.ing Sy&tem 2$S$ @OOS5 81/0 Reort to ongre&&,”htt!""###$ioo&$noaa$go."a(o't"go.ernance"ioo&reortcongre&&81/0$*- ""F#ei*eman

$S$ @OOS #ork& #ith it& eye& on the -'t're$ The &'cce&&e& o- $S$ @OOS are achie.e* thro'ghcooeration an* coor*ination among He*era% agencie&, $S$ @OOS Regiona% A&&ociation&, Statean* regiona% agencie&, an* the ri.ate &ector$ Thi& cooeration an* coor*ination reI'ire& a &o'n*go.ernance an* management &tr'ct're$ @n 81// an* 81/8, rogram mi%e&tone& ca%%e* -or in $S$ @OOS %egi&%ation#ere achie.e*, %aying the gro'n*#ork -or more &'cce&& in the -'t're$ Hir&t, the $S$ @OOS A*.i&ory ommittee #a&e&ta(%i&he*$ Secon*, the @n*een*ent o&t E&timate #a& *e%i.ere* to ongre&&$ A& art o- the e&timate, each o- the// $S$ @OOS Regiona% A&&ociation& com%ete* /1)year ('i%*)o't %an&, *e&cri(ing &er.ice& an* ro*'ct& to a**re&&%oca% '&er nee*& an* o't%ining key a&&et& reI'ire* to meet the NationJ& greater ocean)o(&er.ing nee*&$

An!" the IOOS also applies to the reat La0esNOS an! NOAA 1 BHe*era% Agency Name2&5! Nationa% Ocean Ser.ice 2NOS5, Nationa% Oceanic an* Atmo&hericA*mini&tration 2NOAA5, Deartment o- ommerce H'n*ing Oort'nity Tit%e! HY81/7 Marine Sen&or an* Other A*.ance* O(&er.ing

Techno%ogie& Tran&ition :roFect$ “ANNONEMENT OH HEDERAL HND@NG O::ORTN@TY EET@KE SMMARY,”htt!""###$ioo&$noaa$go."-'n*ing"-y/7om&inoaano&ioo&81/781109>7$*- ""F#ei*eman /$ Marine Sen&or Tran&ition Toic! $S$ @OOS &eek& to increa&e the rate that ne# or e+i&ting marine &en&ortechno%ogie& are tran&itione* into oeration& mo*e in or*er to -aci%itate the eCcient co%%ection o- ocean,coa&ta% an* Great Lake& o(&er.ation&$ The Marine Sen&or Tran&ition toic i& -oc'&e* on tran&itioningmarine &en&or& -rom re&earch to oeration& mo*e to meet the *emon&trate* oerationa% nee*& o- en*)'&er&$

Letter& o- @ntent 2LO@&5 are (eing &o%icite* -or thi& toic #ith artic'%ar emha&i& on a5 roFect& comri&e*o- m'%ti)&ector team& o- artner&, (5 roFect& that #i%% meet the *emon&trate* oerationa% nee*& o- en*)'&er&, an*c5 &en&or& that are at or a(o.e TRL 4$ A%icant& #ith &en&or& -or ocean aci*i;cation that are at or a(o.e TRL 4 area%&o e%igi(%e to a%y to thi& toic i- they ha.e &trong commitment& -or oerationa% tran&ition

http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/funding/fy14ffo_msi_noaa_nos_ioos_2014_2003854.pdfhttp://www.ioos.noaa.gov/funding/fy14ffo_msi_noaa_nos_ioos_2014_2003854.pdfhttp://www.ioos.noaa.gov/funding/fy14ffo_msi_noaa_nos_ioos_2014_2003854.pdf


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C. +otin$ iss&e #or #airness an! $ro&n!- etra topicality#orces the ne$ to 2aste time !e3atin$ T j&st to $et 3ac0to s4&are one" an! it allo2s the a to $ain etraa!%anta$es" co&nterplan ans2ers" an! lin0 t&rns to !isa!s


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6NC Impact-E!&cation

'e7nitions are 0ey to e!&cation a3o&t IOOSIOOS report to con$ress 1/ BOCcia% S @OOS reort &ent to congre&&$ 81/0, “$S$ @ntegrate* Ocean O(&er.ingSy&tem 2$S$ @OOS5 81/0 Reort to ongre&&,” htt!""###$ioo&$noaa$go."a(o't"go.ernance"ioo&reortcongre&&81/0$*-

""F#ei*eman

The '&e o- &tan*ar* term& or .oca('%arie& to *e&cri(e ocean o(&er.ation& *ata i&critica% to -aci%itating (roa* &haring an* integration o- *ata$ Working c%o&e%y SEOORA an* thecomm'nity)(a&e* Marine Meta*ata @nteroera(i%ity :roFect, $S$ @OOS ha& '(%i&he* ninerecommen*e* .oca('%arie& o.er the a&t /8 month& -or re.ie# (y the ocean o(&er.ing comm'nityinc%'*ing %i&t& -or %at-orm&, arameter&, core .aria(%e&, an* (io%ogica% term&$ The&e eort& are he%ing %ea* theocean o(&er.ing comm'nity to#ar*& &igni;cant%y imro.e* %e.e%& o- con&i&tency .ia an imro.e*&emantic -rame#ork thro'gh #hich '&er& can a*ot recommen*e* .oca('%arie& orcon.ert their .oca('%arie& to term& that are erha& '&e* more #i*e%y$


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6NC Car!s- Oceans

IOOS incl&!es monitorin$ the reat La0esIOOS report to con$ress 1/ BOCcia% S @OOS reort &ent to congre&&$ 81/0, “$S$ @ntegrate* Ocean O(&er.ingSy&tem 2$S$ @OOS5 81/0 Reort to ongre&&,” htt!""###$oo&$noaa$go."a(o't"go.ernance"ioo&reortcongre&&81/0$*-

""F#ei*eman The @OO recogni


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Water (o*ie& are *e&cri(e* (y a %ethora o- *ierent name& in Eng%i&h ) ri.er&,&tream&, on*&, (ay&, g'%-&, an* &ea& , to name a -e#$ Many o- the&e term&P*e;nition& o.er%a an* th'& (ecome con-'&ing #hen one attemt& to igeon)ho%e atye o- #ater (o*y$ Rea* on to ;n* o't the &imi%aritie& 2an* *ierence&5 (et#eenterm& '&e* to *e&cri(e #ater (o*ie&$WeP%% (egin #ith the *ierent -orm& o- Qo#ing #ater$ The &ma%%e&t #ater channe%&

are o-ten ca%%e* (rook& ('t creek& are o-ten %arger than (rook& ('t may either (eermanent or intermittent$ reek& are a%&o &ometime& kno#n a& &tream& ('t the#or* &tream i& I'ite a generic term -or any (o*y o- Qo#ing #ater$ Stream& can (eintermittent or ermanent an* can (e on the &'r-ace o- the earth , 'n*ergro'n* , ore.en #ithin an ocean 2&'ch a& the G'%- Stream5$A ri.er i& a %arge &tream that Qo#& o.er %an*$ @t i& o-ten a erennia% #ater (o*y an*'&'a%%y Qo#& in a &eci;c channe%, #ith a con&i*era(%e .o%'me o- #ater$ The #or%*P&&horte&t ri.er, the D Ri.er, in Oregon, i& on%y /81 -eet %ong an* connect& De.i%P&Lake *irect%y to the :aci;c Ocean$A on* i& a &ma%% %ake, mo&t o-ten in a nat'ra% *ere&&ion$ Like a &tream, the #or*%ake i& I'ite a generic term ) it re-er& to any acc'm'%ation o- #ater &'rro'n*e* (y%an* ) a%tho'gh it i& o-ten o- a con&i*era(%e &i7$*- ""F#ei*eman

/$ Marine Sen&or Tran&ition Toic! $S$ @OOS &eek& to increa&e the rate that ne# or e+i&ting marine &en&ortechno%ogie& are tran&itione* into oeration& mo*e in or*er to -aci%itate the eCcient co%%ection o- ocean,coa&ta% an* Great Lake& o(&er.ation&$ The Marine Sen&or Tran&ition toic i& -oc'&e* on tran&itioningmarine &en&or& -rom re&earch to oeration& mo*e to meet the *emon&trate* oerationa% nee*& o- en*)'&er&$

Letter& o- @ntent 2LO@&5 are (eing &o%icite* -or thi& toic #ith artic'%ar emha&i& on a5 roFect& comri&e*o- m'%ti)&ector team& o- artner&, (5 roFect& that #i%% meet the *emon&trate* oerationa% nee*& o- en*)'&er&, an*c5 &en&or& that are at or a(o.e TRL 4$ A%icant& #ith &en&or& -or ocean aci*i;cation that are at or a(o.e TRL 4 area%&o e%igi(%e to a%y to thi& toic i- they ha.e &trong commitment& -or oerationa% tran&ition

http://www.ioos.noaa.gov/funding/fy14ffo_msi_noaa_nos_ioos_2014_2003854.pdfhttp://www.ioos.noaa.gov/funding/fy14ffo_msi_noaa_nos_ioos_2014_2003854.pdfhttp://www.ioos.noaa.gov/funding/fy14ffo_msi_noaa_nos_ioos_2014_2003854.pdf


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6NC Car!s- ,S

The !ata sharin$ components are the critical part o# IOOS-

they cant say they j&st !on’t !o the etra-topical partsIOOS report to con$ress 1/ BOCcia% S @OOS reort &ent to congre&&$ 81/0, “$S$ @ntegrate* OceanO(&er.ing Sy&tem 2$S$ @OOS5 81/0 Reort to ongre&&,”htt!""###$ioo&$noaa$go."a(o't"go.ernance"ioo&reortcongre&&81/0$*- ""F#ei*eman

O(&er.ation& are o- %itt%e .a%'e i- they cannot (e -o'n*, acce&&e*, an* tran&-orme*into '&e-'% ro*'ct&$ The $S$ @OOS Data Management an* omm'nication&&'(&y&tem, or “DMA,” i& the centra% oerationa% in-ra&tr'ct're -or a&&e&&ing,*i&&eminating, an* integrating e+i&ting an* -'t're ocean o(&er.ation& *ata$ A& acore -'nctiona% comonent -or $S$ @OOS, e&ta(%i&hing DMA caa(i%itie& contin'e&to (e a rincia% -oc'& -or the rogram an* a rimary re&on&i(i%ity o- the $S$ @OOS:rogram OCce in NOAA$ @mortance an* O(Fecti.e& o- DMA A%tho'gh DMA im%ementationremain& a #ork in rogre&&, a -'%%y im%emente* DMA &'(&y&tem #i%% (e caa(%e o-

*e%i.ering rea%)time, *e%aye*)mo*e, an* hi&torica% *ata$ The *ata #i%% inc%'*e in &it'an* remote%y &en&e* hy&ica%, chemica%, an* (io%ogica% o(&er.ation& a& #e%% a&mo*e%)generate* o't't&, inc%'*ing -oreca&t&, to $S$ @OOS '&er& an* o- *e%i.eringa%% -orm& o- *ata to an* -rom &ec're archi.e -aci%itie&$ Achie.ing thi& reI'ire& ago.ernance -rame#ork -or recommen*ing an* romoting &tan*ar*& an* o%icie& to(e im%emente* (y *ata ro.i*er& acro&& the $S$ @OOS enterri&e , to ro.i*e &eam%e&&%ong)term re&er.ation an* re'&e o- *ata acro&& regiona% an* nationa% (o'n*arie& an* acro&& *i&ci%ine&$ Thego.ernance -rame#ork inc%'*e& too%& -or *ata acce&&, *i&tri('tion, *i&co.ery, .i&'a%i


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The $S$ go.ernmenta%&o terme* nationa% go.ernment

National $o%ernment" not states or localities*lac0’s La2 )) 2Dictionary, Se.enth E*ition, $=105

A nationa% go.ernment that e+erci&e& &ome *egree o- contro% o.er &ma%%er o%itica%'nit& that ha.e &'rren*ere* &ome *egree o- o#er in e+change -or the right toarticiate in nationa% o%itica% matter&

Central $o%ernmentA@' )6 2American ?eritage Dictionary o- the Eng%i&h Lang'age, $ 47=5

-e*era%0$ O- or re%ating to the centra% go.ernment o- a -e*eration a& *i&tinct -rom thego.ernment& o- it& mem(er 'nit&$

IOOS incl&!es state" re$ional" an! pri%ate sectorsIOOS report to con$ress 1/ BOCcia% S @OOS reort &ent to congre&&$ 81/0, “$S$ @ntegrate* Ocean O(&er.ingSy&tem 2$S$ @OOS5 81/0 Reort to ongre&&,” htt!""###$ioo&$noaa$go."a(o't"go.ernance"ioo&reortcongre&&81/0$*-""F#ei*eman

$S$ @OOS #ork& #ith it& eye& on the -'t're$ The &'cce&&e& o- $S$ @OOS are achie.e* thro'ghcooeration an* coor*ination among He*era% agencie&, $S$ @OOS Regiona% A&&ociation&, Statean* regiona% agencie&, an* the ri.ate &ector$ Thi& cooeration an* coor*ination reI'ire& a &o'n*go.ernance an* management &tr'ct're$ @n 81// an* 81/8, rogram mi%e&tone& ca%%e* -or in $S$ @OOS %egi&%ation#ere achie.e*, %aying the gro'n*#ork -or more &'cce&& in the -'t're$ Hir&t, the $S$ @OOS A*.i&ory ommittee #a&e&ta(%i&he*$ Secon*, the @n*een*ent o&t E&timate #a& *e%i.ere* to ongre&&$ A& art o- the e&timate, each o- the// $S$ @OOS Regiona% A&&ociation& com%ete* /1)year ('i%*)o't %an&, *e&cri(ing &er.ice& an* ro*'ct& to a**re&&%oca% '&er nee*& an* o't%ining key a&&et& reI'ire* to meet the NationJ& greater ocean)o(&er.ing nee*&$


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'isa!s


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?olitics


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1NC > ?olitics Lin0

Ca&ses 7$hts > anti-en%ironmentalismarr 691/

Sam, Mem(er o- the ?o'&e o- Rere&entati.e& 2D)A5 hair o- ?o'&e Ocean&a'c'&, Re.ie#UHoreca&t o%%a(oration ?e%& to n*er&tan* An* A*at to Ocean,%imate hange& htt!""&ea)techno%ogy$com"*-"&t1//0$*-

The a&t year in Wa&hington, D$$, #a& ri-e #ith in;ghting (et#een the t#o o%itica%artie&$ On i&&'e a-ter i&) &'e, the oo&ing &i*e& #ere 'na(%e to reach a comromi&e on meaning-'% %egi&%ation-or the American eo%e$ Thi& *i.i&ion #a& mo&t noticea(%e #hen *i&) c'&&ing the -ate o-o'r ocean&$ The #i*ening cha&m (et#een the t#o o%itica% artie& re&'%te* in*i.ergent ath& -or ocean o%icy! one #ith :re&i) *ent arack O(ama '&hing the Nationa%Ocean :o%icy -or#ar*, an* the other #ith $S$ ?o'&e Re'(%ican& 'n*er) mining tho&eeort& #ith oo&ing .ote& an* -'n*ing c't&$ Marine, En.ironmenta% :o%icy Regre&&ion The//8th ongre&& #a& ca%%e* the Vmo&t anti)en.iron) menta% ongre&& in hi&toryV in areort '(%i&he* (y ?o'&e Democrat& an* ha& (een cre*ite* -or 'n*ermining the ma) For en.ironmenta% %egi&%ation

o- the a&t 71 year&$ A-ter the Tea :arty %an*&%i*e in the congre&&iona% e%ection& o- 81/1,con&er.ati.e& on aito% ?i%% (egan to Qe+ their m'&c%e& to ro%% (ack en.ironmenta%rotection&$ Since taking o#er in an'ary 81//, ?o'&e Re'(%ican& he%* ro'gh%y 011 .ote& to 'n*ermine (a&icen.ironmenta% rotection& that ha.e e+i&te* -or *eca*e&$ To 't that in er) &ecti.e, that #a& a%mo&t one in e.ery;.e .ote& he%* in ongre&& *'ring the a&t t#o year&$ The&e #ere .ote& to a%) %o# a**itiona% oi% an* ga& *ri%%ing incoa&ta% #ater&, #hi%e &im'%taneo'&%y %imiting the en.ironmenta% re.ie# roce&& -or o&hore *ri%%ing &ite&$ There#ere reea% attemt& to 'n) *ermine the %ean Water Act an* to ro%% (ack rotection& -or threatene* ;&h an* other

marine &ecie&$ There #ere a%&o attemt& to (%ock mea&'re& to a**re&& c%imatechange&, ig) noring the con&eI'ence& o- inaction, &'ch a& &ea %e.e% ri&e an* oceanaci*i;cation$


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6NC > O3ama ?C Lin0

Costs political capital" re4&ires O3ama to p&sharr 691/

Sam, Mem(er o- the ?o'&e o- Rere&entati.e& 2D)A5 hair o- ?o'&e Ocean&a'c'&, Re.ie#UHoreca&t o%%a(oration ?e%& to n*er&tan* An* A*at to Ocean,%imate hange& htt!""&ea)techno%ogy$com"*-"&t1//0$*-

'i #hi%e the ti*e o- &o'n* ocean o%icy #a& retreating in ongre&&, it #a& ri&ing onthe other en* o- :enn&y%.ania A.en'e$ The Nationa% Ocean :o%icy n*er&tan*ing thenee* -or a -e*era% o%icy to a**re&& the ocean& a-ter the Dee#ater ?ori


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6NC > NOAA Lin0

Con$ress hates increase! #&n!in$ #or NOAA pro$rams---theplan 2o&l! 3e a 7$ht

An*re# ensen 16, :enin&'%a %arion, Ar 8= 81/8, “ongre&& take& another a+ toNOAA ('*get,” htt!""enin&'%ac%arion$com"ne#&"81/8)17)8="congre&&)take&)another)a+)to)noaa)('*get

r&strate! senators -rom coa&ta% &tate& are #ie%*ing the o#er o- the 'r&e to rein in

the N ationa% O ceanic an* A tmo&heric A *mini&tration an* re-oc'& the agencyP& rioritie& on it& core mi&&ion&$ D'ring recent

aroriation& &'(committee hearing& Ari% /=, Sen$ Li&a M'rko#&ki en&'re* no #&n!s 2o&l! 3e pro%i!e!

in ;&ca% year 81/0 -or coa&ta% marine &atia% %anning , a key comonent o- :re&i*ent arack O(amaP&Nationa% Ocean :o%icy$ M'rko#&ki a%&o '&he* -or an a**itiona% X0 mi%%ion -or regiona% ;&hery management co'nci%& an* &ec're* X/> mi%%ion -or the:aci;c Sa%mon Treaty that #a& in %ine to (e c't (y NOAAP& roo&e* ('*get 2-or X4> mi%%ion tota%5$ On Ari% 87, the -'%% Senate Aroriation& ommitteearo.e* the ommerce Deartment ('*get #ith %ang'age in&erte* (y Sen$ ohn erry, D)Ma&&$, an* Sen$ O%ymia Sno#e, R)Maine, into NOAAP& ('*getthat #o'%* tran&-er X//3 mi%%ion c'rrent%y 'nre&tricte* -'n*& an* reI'ire they (e '&e* -or &tock a&&e&&ment&, &'r.ey& an* monitoring, cooerati.ere&earch an* ;&herie& grant&$ The X//3 mi%%ion i& *eri.e* -rom Sa%ton&ta%%)enne*y -'n*&, #hich are %e.ie& co%%ecte* on &ea-oo* imort& (y theDeartment o- Agric'%t're$ Thirty ercent o- the imort %e.ie& are tran&-erre* to NOAA ann'a%%y, an* #itho't erryP& %ang'age there are no re&triction& on

ho# NOAA may '&e the -'n*&$ @n a ongre&& *e;ne* (y ;erce arti&an&hi, no #e!eral a$ency

has !ra2n as m&ch 7re #rom 3oth parties a& NOAA an* it& A*mini&trator ane L'(chenco$ Sen$ Scottro#n, R)Ma&&$, ha& reeate*%y *eman*e* acco'nta(i%ity -or NOAA OCce o- La# En-orcement a('&e& 'nco.ere* (y the ommerce Deartment @n&ectorGenera% that inc%'*e* the '&e o- ;&hermenP& ;ne& to 'rcha&e a %'+'ry (oat that #a& on%y '&e* -or Foyri*ing aro'n* :'get So'n*$ There i& c'rrent%yanother @n&ector Genera% in.e&tigation 'n*er #ay into the regiona% ;&hery management co'nci% r'%emaking roce&& that #a& reI'e&te* %a&t A'g'&t (yMa&&ach'&ett& Re&$ ohn Tierney an* arney Hrank, (oth Democrat&$ @n '%y 81/1, (oth Hrank an* Tierney ca%%e* -or L'(chenco to &te *o#n, aremarka(%e &tatement -or mem(er& o- O(amaP& arty to make a(o't one o- hi& to aointment&$ Hrank intro*'ce* comanion %egi&%ation to erryP& inthe ?o'&e ear%ier thi& year, #here it &ho'%* &ai% thro'gh in a (o*y that ha& reeate*%y &trie* o't ten& o- mi%%ion& in ('*get reI'e&t& -or catch &harerogram&$ atch &hare rogram& are L'(chencoP& -a.ore* o%icy -or ;&herie& management an* ha.e (een #i*e%y anne* a-ter im%ementation in Ne#Eng%an* in 81/1 re&'%te* in ma&&i.e con&o%i*ation o- the gro'n*;&h catch onto the %arge&t ;&hing .e&&e%&$ Another Ne# Eng%an* cri&i& thi& year #ith G'%-o- Maine co* a%&o *ro.e erryP& action a-ter a t#o)year o%* &tock a&&e&&ment #a& re.i&e* &har%y *o#n#ar* an* threatene* to c%o&e *o#n the ;&hery$n%ike many ;&herie& in A%a&ka &'ch a& o%%ock, cra( an* ha%i('t, there are not ann'a% &tock a&&e&&ment &'r.ey& aro'n* the co'ntry$ Witho't a ne# &tocka&&e&&ment -or G'%- o- Maine co*, the 81/0 &ea&on #i%% (e in Feoar*y$ V@ a%a'* Senator erry -or hi& %ea*er&hi on thi& i&&'e an* -or making &'re thatthi& -'n*ing i& '&e* -or it& inten*e* 'ro&e ) to he% the ;&hing in*'&try, not to co.er NOAAP& a*mini&trati.e o.erhea*,V Hrank &ai* in a &tatement$ VWeare at a critica% F'nct're at #hich #e a(&o%'te%y m'&t ro.i*e more -'n*ing -or cooerati.e ;&herie& &cience &o #e can (a&e management o%icie& on&o'n* *ata, an* #e &ho'%* make goo* '&e o- the #or%*)c%a&& in&tit'tion& in the ay State #hich ha.e &ecia% e+erti&e in thi& area$V A%a&kaP& Sen$ Markegich an* M'rko#&ki, a& #e%% a& Re$ Don Yo'ng ha.e a%&o *eno'nce* the Nationa% Ocean :o%icy a& artic'%ar%y mi&g'i*e*, not on%y -or *i.erting core-'n*ing in a time o- tightening ('*get& ('t -or creating a ma&&i.e ne# ('rea'cracy that threaten& to o.er%a e+i&ting a'thoritie& -or the regiona% ;&herymanagement co'nci%& an* %oca% go.ernment&$ The ;r&t 38 age& o- the *ra-t o%icy re%ea&e* an$ /8 ca%% -or more than >1 action&, nine rioritie&, a ne#Nationa% Ocean o'nci%, nine Regiona% :%anning o*ie& ta&ke* #ith creating oa&ta% Marine Satia% :%an&, &e.era% interagency committee& an* ta&k-orce&,i%ot roFect&, training in eco&y&tem)(a&e* management -or -e*era% em%oyee&, ne# #ater I'a%ity &tan*ar*& an* the incororation o- the o%icy into

reg'%atory an* ermitting *eci&ion&$ Some o- the action item& ca%% -or the in.o%.ement o- a& many a& 8= -e*era% agencie&$ Another reI'ire& high)I'a%itymarine #ater& to (e i*enti;e* an* ne# or mo*i;e* #ater I'a%ity an* monitoring rotoco%& to (e e&ta(%i&he*$ Yo'ng ho&te* a ;e%* hearing o- the ?o'&eNat'ra% Re&o'rce& ommittee in Anchorage Ari% 0 #here he (%a&te* the a*mini&tration -or re-'&ing to e+%ain e+act%y ho# it i& aying -or im%ementingthe Nationa% Ocean :o%icy$ VThi& Nationa% Ocean :o%icy i& a (a* i*ea,V Yo'ng &ai*$ V@t #i%% create more 'ncertainty -or ('&ine&&e& an* #i%% %imit Fo( gro#th$@t #i%% a%&o como'n* the otentia% -or %itigation (y gro'& that oo&e h'man acti.itie&$ To make matter& #or&e, the a*mini&tration re-'&e& to te%%ongre&& ho# m'ch money it #i%% (e *i.erting -rom other '&e& to -'n* thi& ne# o%icy$V Nat'ra% Re&o'rce& ommittee hairman Doc ?a&ting&, R)Wa&h$,&ent a %etter ?o'&e Aroriation& ommittee hairman ?a% Roger& a&king that e.ery aroriation& (i%% e+re&&%y rohi(it any -'n*& to (e '&e* -orim%ementing the Nationa% Ocean :o%icy$ Another %etter #a& &ent Ari% /8 to Roger& (y more than 91 &takeho%*er gro'& -rom the G'%- o- Me+ico to theering Sea echoing the ca%% to (an a%% -e*era% -'n*& -or '&e in the o%icy im%ementation$ VThe ri&k o- 'ninten*e* economic an* &ocieta% con&eI'ence&remain& high, *'e in art to the 'nrece*ente* geograhic &ca%e 'n*er #hich the o%icy i& to (e e&ta(%i&he*,V the &takeho%*er %etter &tate&$ Voncern& are-'rther heightene* (eca'&e the o%icy ha& a%rea*y (een cite* a& F'&ti;cation in a -e*era% *eci&ion re&tricting acce&& to certain area& -or commercia%

acti.ity$V Con$ress re#&se! to #&n! some B6 million in 3&!$et re4&ests #or

NOAA in ;&ca% year 6916 to im%ement the Nationa% Ocean :o%icy, ('t the a*mini&tration re%ea&e* it& *ra-t im%ementation o%icyin an'ary any#ay$


14/210

8&ssian Oil


15/210

8&ssian Oil 'A 1NC

8&ssia’s economy is at a tippin$ point- its hol!in$ on 3eca&seo# oil

The economist 1BThe economi&t i& an economic ne#& &o'rce$ May 0 81/7,

“The cri&i& in kraine i& h'rting an a%rea*y #eakening economy” htt!""###$economi&t$com"ne#&";nance)an*)economic&"8/41/>04)cri&i&)'kraine)h'rting)a%rea*y)#eakening)economy)tiing)&ca%e& ""F#ei*eman

WESTERN mea&'re& again&t R'&&iaa&&et -ree$>Z at the &tart o- March to =$>Z$ The @MH reckon& the economy i& in rece&&ion6 thi& #eek it c't it& gro#th-oreca&t -or 81/7 -rom /$0Z to 1$8Z$ De&ite the&e '&et&, R'&&ia aear& to ho%* &trongeconomic a& #e%% a& mi%itary car*& $ @t ro.i*e& 87Z o- the E'roean nionJ& ga& an*

01Z o- it& oi% $ @t& gri on kraineJ& ga& an* oi% con&'mtion i& tighter &ti%%$ That make& ithar* -or the We&t to *e&ign &anction& that *o not (ack;re$

Satellite mappin$ 7n!s oil- it increases pro!&ction capa3ilitiesShort 11 BNicho%a& M$ Short, Sr i& a geo%ogi&t #ho recei.e* *egree& in that ;e%* -rom St$ Lo'i& ni.er&ity 2$S$5, Wa&hingtonni.er&ity 2M$A$5, an* the Ma&&ach'&ett& @n&tit'te o- Techno%ogy 2:h$D$56 he a%&o &ent a year in gra*'ate &t'*ie& in the geo&cience&at The :enn&y%.ania State ni.er&ity$ @n hi& ear%y o&t)gra*'ate career, he #orke* -or G'%- Re&earch U De.e%oment o$, theLa#rence Li.ermore La(oratory, an* the ni.er&ity o- ?o'&ton$ D'ring the /341& he &ecia%i


16/210

in*icator& o- &'r-ace anoma%ie&$ Thi& *iagram &et& the -rame#ork -or the aroach '&e*6 thi& i& the &o)ca%%e*micro&eeage mo*e%, #hich %ea*& to &eci;c geochemica% anoma%ie&!

Ne2 ,S oil pro!&ction collapses 8&ssia’s economyDoo!hill 1 BLo'i&, ontri('tor at -or(e&, entreeno'r an* in.e&tor$ 0"0"/7, “@tP& Time To Dri.e R'&&ia ankr't – Again”htt!""###$-or(e&$com"&ite&"%o'ioo*hi%%"81/7"10"10"it&)time)to)*ri.e)r'&&ia)(ankr't)again" ""F#ei*eman

The high oi% rice& o- /391 #ere not rea%, an* Reagan kne# it$ They #ere (eing ca'&e* (y the #eakne&& o-the $S$ *o%%ar, #hich ha* %o&t 37Z o- it& .a%'e in term& o- go%* (et#een /343 an* /391$ Reagan imme*iate%y*econtro%%e* $S$ oi% rice&, to 'n%ea&h the &'%y &i*e o- the $S$ economy$ E.en moreimortant%y, Reagan (acke* He*era% Re&er.e hairman :a'% Ko%ckerJ& camaign to &trengthen an* &ta(i%i tri%%ion$ n%ikethe $S$, #hich ha& *ee ;nancia% market& an* rint& the #or%*J& re&er.e c'rrency,R'&&ia cannot r'n %arge ;&ca% *e;cit& #itho't creating hyerinQation$ Gi.en thatR'&&ia e+ect& to get a(o't ha%- o- it& re.en'e -rom ta+e& on it& oi% an* ga&in*'&try, it i& c%ear that it #o'%* not take m'ch o- a *ec%ine in #or%* oi% rice& tocreate ;nancia% *iCc'%tie& -or R'&&ia$ A&&'ming year)en* 81/0 rice& -or cr'*e oi% 2X///$=4"((%5 an* nat'ra%ga& 2X44$11"HOE[ ((%5 the tota% re.en'e o- R'&&iaJ& etro%e'm in*'&try i& X448$0 (i%%ion 284$>Z o- GD:5, an* R'&&ianJ& oi% an* ga&

e+ort earning& are X048$8 (i%%ion, or /7$>Z o- GD:$ O(.io'&%y, a *ec%ine in #or%* oi% rice& #o'%* ca'&ethe R'&&ian economy an* the R'&&ian go.ernment &igni;cant ;nancia% ain $

N&clear 2aril$er :) BShe%*on, -o'n*er o- G%o(a% Economic ri&i&, The Hufngton Post,, >$/1$3, htt!""###$h'Cngtono&t$com"&he%*on);%ger"r'&&ian)economy)-ace&)*i&(81//7=$htm% "" F#ei*eman

@n R'&&ia, hi&torica%%y, economic hea%th an* o%itica% &ta(i%ity are intert#ine* to a*egree that i& rare%y enco'ntere* in other maFor in*'&tria%i


17/210

&'Ccient &coe an* caa(i%ity to *e&troy the #or%* a& #e kno# it$ Hor that rea&on, it i& noton%y :re&i*ent Me*.e*e. an* :rime Mini&ter :'tin #ho #i%% (e %ying a#ake at night& o.er the ro&ect that a nationa% economiccri&i& can tran&-orm it&e%- into a .ir'%ent an* *e&ta(i%i


18/210

,F econ

8&ssia’s economy is 2ea0" 3&t $ro2th is comin$ITA88-TASS G/ BR'&&ian ne#& agency$ ="0"/7, “R'&&iaJ& economic gro#th to acce%erate to o.er 0Z in 81/=”htt!""en$itar)ta&&$com"economy"=09973 ""F#ei*eman

The R'&&ian go.ernment e+ect& the nationa% economy to gro#, *e&ite the 'n-a.ora(%eeconomic &cenario -or thi& year, :rime Mini&ter Dmitry Me*.e*e. &ai* on Th'r&*ay$ Me*.e*e. chaire* ago.ernment meeting on Th'r&*ay to *i&c'&& the -e*era% ('*get arameter& an*&tate rogram ;nancing 'nti% 81/=$ “Thi& &cenario 2o- R'&&iaJ& &ocia% an* economic*e.e%oment5 'n-ort'nate%y en.i&age& a genera% economic *eterioration an* &%o#ereconomic gro#th thi& year$ Then, the gro#th i& e+ecte* to acce%erate gra*'a%%y to 8Zne+t year an* to o.er 0Z in 81/=,” Me*.e*e. &ai*$ The 81/>)81/= -e*era% ('*get #i%% &eta&i*e o.er 8$= tri%%ion r'(%e& 2X=9 (i%%ion 5 -or the ayment o- #age& an* &a%arie&, theremier &ai*, a**ing the go.ernmentJ& &ocia% o(%igation& #ere a riority in the -orthcoming ('*get erio*$ More than a ha%- o- -e*era% ('*get -'n*& are &ent thro'gh the mechani&m o- &tate rogram&$ @n81/>, the go.ernment inten*& to im%ement 74 targete* &tate rogram& to the

amo'nt o- o.er / tri%%ion r'(%e& 2a(o't X01 (i%%ion5 in ('*get ;nancing, the remier &ai*$ The &ame('*get ;nancing rinci%e #i%% no# (e '&e* (y regiona% an* %oca% go.ernment&,inc%'*ing R'&&iaJ& t#o ne# con&tit'ent entitie& ) the Re'(%ic o- rimea an* the cityo- Se.a&too%, the remier &ai*$

8&ssia 2ill a%oi! recessionA? G19 BAgence Hrance):re&&e i& an internationa% ne#& agency hea*I'artere* in :ari&$ @t i& the o%*e&t ne#& agency in the#or%* an* one o- the %arge&t$ ="/1"/7, “R'&&ia a.oi*& rece&&ion in &econ* I'arter”htt&!""a'$ne#&$yahoo$com"the#e&t"('&ine&&"#or%*"a"8778>/88"r'&&ia)a.oi*&)rece&&ion)in)&econ*)I'arter" ""F#ei*eman

Mo&co# 2AH:5 ) R'&&ia manage* to a.oi* &%i*ing into a rece&&ion in the &econ* I'arter , it&*e'ty economy mini&ter &ai* We*ne&*ay, citing re%iminary e&timate& &ho#ing


19/210

R'&&iaP& economy mini&ter &ai* Mon*ay that o't't e+an*e* (y /$8 ercent in the&econ* I'arter comare* to the &ame erio* %a&t year , a re%iminary ;g're that i& V&%ight%y (etterVthan e+ecte* *e&ite the kraine cri&i&$ V The re&'%t& are &%ight%y (etter than #e re*icte*, #ith theemha&i& on P&%ight%yP,V economy mini&ter A%e+ei %y'kaye. &ai*$ ?e a**e* that the Vre;ne*V oCcia% ;g're (y R'&&iaP& &tati&tic&agency #i%% (e re%ea&e* %ater$ The @MH &ai* %a&t month that R'&&ia i& a%rea*y in rece&&ion, #hi%e the centra% (ank &ai* gro#th in 81/7

i& %ike%y to &%o# to F'&t 1$7 ercent$ %y'kaye. &ai* that &econ* I'arter ;g're, ' -rom 1$3

ercent in the ;r&t I'arter an* 1$8 ercent (etter than hi& mini&tryP& e+ectation&,#a& %ike%y (o%&tere* (y in*'&tria% gro#th $ V Thi& year in*'&try i& (ecoming the main%ocomoti.e o- gro#th ,V %y'kaye. to%* :re&i*ent K%a*imir :'tin in a meeting, citing in*'&tria% gro#th reaching 8$>ercent, ' -rom /$9 ercent in the ;r&t I'arter$


20/210

, ATF sanctions

There 2on’t 3e more sanctionsAl aHeera 1 BA% a


21/210

,-?ro!&ction !ecline

Oil pro!&ction is !eclinin$S&mmers 1 BDa.e, a'thor -or economonitor, F'%y = /7, “Oi% :ro*'ction N'm(er& ee Going Do#n”

htt!""###$economonitor$com"(%og"81/7"1="oi%)ro*'ction)n'm(er&)kee)going)*o#n" ""F#ei*eman

One ro(%em #ith *e;ning a eak in g%o(a% oi% ro*'ction i& that it i& on%y rea%%y e.i*ent &ometime a-ter the e.ent, #hen one can%ook in the rear .ie# mirror an* &ee the tran&ition -rom a gro#ing oi% &'%y to one that i& no# *ec%ining$ e-ore that re%ati.e%y a(&o%'te oint, there #i%% %ike%y come a time #hen g%o(a%&'%y can no %onger match the g%o(a% *eman* -or oi% that e+i&t& at that rice$ Weare (eginning to aroach the %atter o- the&e t#o con*ition &, #ith the -ormer (eing increa&ing%yro(a(%e in the non)too *i&tant -'t're$ Ri&ing rice& contin'a%%y change thi& %atter con*ition, an* may initia%%y *i&g'i&e the arri.a% o-the eak, ('t it i& (ecoming ine.ita(%e$ O.er the a&t t#o year& there ha& (een a &tea*y gro#th in *eman*, #hich O:E e+ect& tocontin'e at aro'n* the / m(* range, a& ha& (een the recent attern$ The cha%%enge, on a g%o(a% &ca%e, ha& (een to i*enti-y #herethe matching gro#th in &'%y #i%% come -rom, gi.en the *ec%ining ro*'ction -rom o%*er oi%;e%*& an* the *ec%ine rate o- mo&t o- the

hori


22/210

omanie& 'rcha&e %ea&e& hoing they #i%% ho%* eno'gh oi% or nat'ra% ga& to(ene;t con&'mer& an* (ecome economica%%y .ia(%e -or ro*'ction$ omanie& can&en* mi%%ion& o- *o%%ar& to 'rcha&e a %ea&e an* then e+%ore an* *e.e%o it, on%yto ;n* that it *oe& not contain oi% an* nat'ra% ga& in commercia% I'antitie&$ @t i& not'n'&'a% -or a comany to &en* in e+ce&& o- X/11 mi%%ion on%y to *ri%% a *ry ho%e$

The rea&on i& that a comany '&'a%%y on%y ha& %imite* kno#%e*ge o- re&o'rce

otentia% #hen it ('y& a %ea&e$ On%y a-ter the %ea&e i& acI'ire* #i%% the comany (e in a o&ition to e.a%'ate it,'&'a%%y #ith a .ery co&t%y &ei&mic &'r.ey -o%%o#e* (y an e+%oration #e%%$ @- a comany *oe& not ;n* oi% or nat'ra% ga& in commercia%I'antitie&, the comany han*& the %ea&e (ack to the go.ernment, inc'r& the %o&& o- in.e&te* money an* mo.e& on to moreromi&ing %ea&e&$ @- a comany ;n*& re&o'rce& in commercia% I'antitie&, it #i%% ro*'ce the %ea&e$ 't there &ometime& can (e*e%ay& o-ten a& %ong a& ten year& -or en.ironmenta% an* engineering &t'*ie&, to acI'ire ermit&, to in&ta%% ro*'ction -aci%itie&2or %at-orm& -or o&hore %ea&e&5 an* to ('i%* the nece&&ary in-ra&tr'ct're to (ring the re&o'rce& to market$ Litigation, %an*o#ner

*i&'te& an* reg'%atory h'r*%e& a%&o can *e%ay the roce&&.

Oi% i& getting har*er to ;n*Spa0 11 Be.in, &ta #riter -or ne#&er$ 8"/4"//, “E++on! Oi% ecoming ?ar* to Hin*”htt!""###$ne#&er$com"&tory"//8/44"e++on)oi%)(ecoming)har*)to);n*$htm% ""F#ei*eman

E++on Mo(i% or$ i& ha.ing tro'(%e ;n*ing more oi% , it re.ea%e* ye&ter*ay in it&earning& ca%%$ The comany &ai* it #a& *e%eting it& re&er.e&, re%acing on%y 3> o't

o- e.ery /11 (arre%& it 'm&$ Tho'gh it trie* to 't a o&iti.e &in on thing& (y &aying it ha* ma*e ' -or the&hort-a%% (y (o%&tering it& nat'ra% ga& &'%ie&, e+ert& te%% the Wa%% Street o'rna% thatJ& ro(a(%y a&hi-t (orn o- grim nece&&ity$ Oi% comanie& acro&& the (oar* are *ri-ting to#ar*nat'ra% ga&, (eca'&e oi% i& har*er an* har*er to come (y , accor*ing to the o'rna%$ Mo&t acce&&i(%e;e%*& are a%rea*y tae* o't, #hi%e ne# ;e%*& are either technica%%y or o%itica%%y *iCc'%t to e+%oit$ “The goo* o%* *ay& are gone an*not to (e reeate*,” &ay& one ana%y&t$ Nat'ra% ga& “i& not going to gi.e yo' the &ame 'nch” a& oi%$

http://www.newser.com/story/112166/exxon-oil-becoming-hard-to-find.htmlhttp://www.newser.com/story/112166/exxon-oil-becoming-hard-to-find.htmlhttp://www.newser.com/story/112166/exxon-oil-becoming-hard-to-find.html


23/210

6NC Lin0 Dall

Sate%%ite& re.ent rig *e&troying e**y&) emirica%%y &o%.e& ro*'ctionESA BE'roean &ace agency, / March 8114, “SATELL@TE DATA SED TO WARN O@L @NDSTRY OH :OTENT@ALLY DANGEROSEDDY” htt!""###$e&a$int"O'rActi.itie&"O(&er.ingtheEarth"Sate%%ite*ata'&e*to #arnoi%in*'&tryo-otentia%%y*angero'&e**y""F#ei*eman

Ocean HOS (egan i&&'ing -oreca&t& on /4 He(r'ary 8114 – F'&t in time to #arn oi%ro*'ction oerator& o- a ne# #arm e**y that ha& -orme* in the oi% an* ga&)ro*'cing region o- the G'%- o- Me+ico$ The&e e**ie&, &imi%ar to 'n*er#aterh'rricane&, &in o the Loo 'rrent – an intr'&ion o- #arm &'r-ace #ater that Qo#& north#ar* -rom theari((ean Sea thro'gh the Y'catan Strait – -rom the G'%- Stream an* can ca'&e e+ten&i.e an* co&t%y *amageto 'n*er#ater eI'iment *'e to the e+ten&i.e *ee #ater oi% ro*'ction acti.itie& in theregion$The Ocean HOS &er.ice i& a 'niI'e &er.ice that ro.i*e& ocean c'rrent -oreca&t& to the o&hore oi%ro*'ction in*'&try to gi.e rior #arning o- the arri.a% o- e**ie&$ The &er.ice i&(a&e* on a com(ination o- &tate)o-)the)art ocean mo*e%& an* &ate%%itemea&'rement& $ Oi% comanie& reI'ire ear%y #arning o- the&e e**ie& in or*er to

minimi&e %o&& o- ro*'ction, otimi&e *ee #ater *ri%%ing acti.itie& an* re.ent *amage to critica% eI'iment$ The

Loo 'rrent an* e**ie& &he**ing -rom it o&e t#o tye& o- ro(%em& -or 'n*er#ater ro*'ction &y&tem&! *irect -orce an* in*'ce*

.i(ration&, #hich create more &tre&& than *irect -orce an* re&'%t& in higher %e.e%& o- -atig'e an* &tr'ct'ra% -ai%'re$ The imacto- the&e e**ie& can (e .ery co&t%y in term& o- *o#ntime in ro*'ction an*e+%oration an* *amage to &'( &ea comonent&$

@OOS %ea*& to more eecti.e ro*'ctionNOAA 1/ B$S$ Deartment o- ommerce ###$ioo&$noaa$go. May 81/0 Nationa% Oceanic an* Atmo&heric A*mini&tration@ntegrate* Ocean O(&er.ing Sy&tem 2@OOS]5 :rogram$ May 81/0, “@OOS]! :artner&hi& Ser.ing Li.e& an* Li.e%ihoo*&”htt!""###$ioo&$noaa$go."comm'nication&"han*o't&"artner&hi&%i.e&%i.e%ihoo*&Qyer$*- ""F#ei*eman

@OOS &'%ie& critica% in-ormation a(o't o'r NationP& #ater&$ Scienti&t& #orking to 'n*er&tan*c%imate change, go.ernment& a*ating to change& in the Arctic, )n'nicia%itie& monitoring %oca% #ater I'a%ity, in*'&trie&

Fn*er&tan*ing coa&ta% an* marine &atia% %anning a%% ha.e the &ame nee*! re%ia(%e an* time%y acce&& to *ata

an* in-ormation that in-orm& *eci&ion making $ @mro.ing Li.e& an* Li.e%ihoo*& @OOS enhance& o'reconomy$ @mro.e* in-ormation a%%o#& o&hore oi% an* ga& %at-orm an* coa&ta%oerator& , m'nicia% D%anner&, an* tho&e #ith intere&t& n the coa&ta%


24/210

re&'%t in high reci&ion O%e a%ta


25/210

IL-?rices 06 r&ssia’s economy

@i$h oil prices are 0ey to political an! economic sta3ility in8&ssia

Ioe 16B'%ia, Horeign o%icyJ& Mo&co# corre&on*ant$ 4"/8"/8, “What #i%% it take to '&h r'&&ian& o.er the e*ge”

htt!""###$-oreigno%icy$com"artic%e&"81/8"14"/8"o#*erkeg_age`1,/ ""F#ei*eman

There i& a%&o the economic -actor to con&i*er$ The R'&&ian economy i& c'rrent%ygro#ing at a re%ati.e%y hea%thy 0$> ercent, ('t itP& '&e-'% to reca%% the #hoinggro#th rate& R'&&ia #a& o&ting F'&t a -e# year& ago$ @n 811=, the year (e-ore the #or%* ;nancia%cri&i& hit R'&&ia, R'&&iaP& GD: gro#th toe* 9 ercent$ @t ha* (een gro#ing at that ace,('oye* (y &oaring commo*ity rice&, -or a%mo&t a *eca*e, an* it #a& not acci*enta% that thi&#a& the *eca*e in #hich :'tin ma*e hi& act #ith the eo%e! Yo' get ;nancia% an*con&'mer com-ort&, an* #e get o%itica% o#er$ @tP& har* to maintain &'ch a act#hen the goo*ie& &to Qo#ing$ Which (ring& '& to the %ooming i&&'e o- the R'&&ian ('*get *e;cit$ To keethe eo%e hay an* o't o- o%itic&, the R'&&ian go.ernment ha& romi&e* a %ot o-thing& to a %ot o- eo%e$ 2:'tinP& camaign romi&e& a%one are e&timate* (y the

R'&&ian entra% ank to co&t at %ea&t X/=1 (i%%ion $5 To (a%ance it& ('*get #ith &'chmagnanimity, R'&&ia nee*& high oi% rice& , to the oint #here %a&t month, theMini&try o- Economic De.e%oment anno'nce* that an X91 (arre% o- oi% #o'%* (e aVcri&i&$V eeing in min* that oi% i& no# a(o't X39 a (arre%, an* that R'&&ia '&e* to (e a(%e to (a%ance it& ('*get& F'&t ;ne #ithoi% at a -raction o- the rice, thi& *oe&nPt %ook too goo* -or :'tin$ Hactor in the #or&ening E'roean cri&i& )) E'roe i& &ti%% R'&&iaP&(igge&t energy c'&tomer )) an* the -act that the &tate ha& 't o 'no'%ar ('t increa&ing%y nece&&ary re-orm&, %ike rai&ing 'ti%ityrice&, an* yo' ;n* yo'r&e%- %ooking at a o#*er keg$

8&ssia’s economy an! re$ime is oil !epen!ent- re%erse ca&salSch&man 16 BMichae%, i& an American a'thor an* Fo'rna%i&t #ho &ecia%i


26/210

/>$8Z -o'r year& ear%ier$ What that mean& i& :'tin reI'ire& a higher oi% rice to meet hi&&en*ing reI'irement& to*ay than he *i* F'&t a -e# year& ago$ Re&earch ;rm aita% Economic&;g're& that the go.ernment ('*get (a%ance* at an oi% rice o- X>> a (arre% in 8119, ('t that no# it (a%ance& at c%o&e to X/81$ Oi%rice& to*ay ha.e -a%%en -ar (e%o# that, #ith rent near X/11 an* $S$ cr'*e %e&& than X31$ The -arther oi% rice& -a%%, the morere&&'re i& %ace* on :'tinJ& ('*get, an* the har*er it i& -or him to kee &rea*ing oi% #ea%th to the greater o'%ation thro'gh the

go.ernment$ With a %arge ath o- the o'%ace angere* (y hi& re)e%ection to thenationJ& re&i*ency in March, an* rote&t& er'ting on the &treet& o- Mo&co#, :'tin can i%%)aor* a

&igni;cant (%o# to the economy, or hi& a(i%ity to '&e go.ernment re&o'rce& to ;rm ' hi& o'%arity$ ThatJ& #hy:'tin ha&nJt (een &ca%ing (ack e.en a& oi% rice& -a%%$ ?i& go.ernment i& earmarking X71 (i%%ion to &'ort the economy, i- nece&&ary,o.er the ne+t t#o year&$ ?e *oe& ha.e ;nancia% #igg%e room, e.en #ith oi% rice& -a%%ing$ Mo&co# ha& #i&e%y &ta&he* a#ay

etro*o%%ar& into a rainy *ay -'n* it can ta to ;%% it& ('*get nee*&$ 't :'tin *oe&nJt ha.e theQe+i(i%ity he '&e* to ha.e$ The -'n* ha& &hr'nk, -rom a%mo&t 9Z o- GD: in 8119 to ato'ch more than 0Z to*ay$ The ackage, &ay& aita% Economic&, &im%y high%ight& the #eakne&&e& o- R'&&iaJ&economy! Thi& c't& to the heart o- a ro(%em #e ha.e high%ighte* (e-ore – name%y that R'&&ia i& no# m'ch more*een*ent on high an* ri&ing oi% rice& than in the a&t The -act that the &hare o-bermanentJ &en*ing 2e$g$ on &a%arie& an* en&ion&5 ha& increa&e*create&a**itiona% ro(%em& &ho'%* oi% rice& *ro (ack 2an* i& a%&o a concern -rom the er&ecti.e o- me*i'm)term gro#th5The re&ent gro#th mo*e% %ook& 'n&'&taina(%e 'n%e&& oi% rice& remain at or a(o.e X/81($


27/210

IL-?ro!&ction lo2ers prices

?ro!&ction lo2ers oil pricesLeonar!o 16 BMa'geri, Leonar*o$ “G%o(a% Oi% :ro*'ction i& S'rging! @m%ication& -or :rice&, Geoo%itic&, an* theEn.ironment$” :o%icy rie-, e%-er enter -or Science an* @nternationa% Aair&, ?ar.ar* enne*y Schoo%, 'ne

81/8$htt!""(e%-ercenter$k&g$har.ar*$e*'";%e&"ma'gerio%icy(rie-$*- ""F#ei*eman

Oi% :rice& May o%%a&e$ ontrary to re.ai%ing #i&*om that increa&ing g%o(a%*eman* -or oi% #i%% increa&e rice&, the reort ;n*& oi% ro*'ction caacity i&gro#ing at &'ch an 'nrece*ente* %e.e% that &'%y might o'tace con&'mtion$ When the g%'t o- oi% hit& the market, it co'%* trigger a co%%a&e in oi% rice& $ Whi%e the ageo- Vchea oi%V may (e en*ing, it i& &ti%% 'ncertain #hat the -'t're %e.e% o- oi% rice& might (e$ Techno%ogy may t'rn to*ayP& e+en&i.e

oi% into tomorro#P& chea oi%$ The oi% market #i%% remain high%y .o%ati%e 'nti% 81/> an* rone toe+treme mo.ement& in oo&ite *irection&, rere&enting a cha%%enge -or in.e&tor&$A-ter 81/>, ho#e.er, mo&t o- the oi% e+%oration an* *e.e%oment roFect& ana%y ercent o- it& oi% con&'mtion nee*& *ome&tica%%y , an* imort theremain*er -rom North American &o'rce& an* th'& *ramatica%%y aect the *e(atearo'n* *een*ence on -oreign oi%$ ?o#e.er the rea%ity #i%% not change m'ch, &ince there i& one g%o(a% oi% marketin #hich a%% co'ntrie& are inter*een*ent$ A g%o(a% oi% market temer& the meaning-'%ne&& o- &e%-) &'Cciency, an* ana*a,Kene"((% o.er the 81/>)810> erio*, *o#n S1$0>"((% -romthe Lo#)Dierentia% Scenario #itho't e+ort& an* *o#n X1$=>"((% -rom the ?igh)Dierentia% Scenario #itho't e+ort&$Whi%e g%o(a%cr'*e rice& *ro, *ome&tic cr'*e rice& gain &trength #hen e+ort& are a%%o#e* (eca'&e %i-ting the re&triction& he%& re%ie.e the$S$ cr'*e o.er&'%y &it'ation an* a%%o#& $S$ cr'*e& to -'%%y comete an* achie.e ricing in internationa% market& c%o&e to tho&e o- &imi%ar cr'*e tye&$ E+hi(it 7)81 &ho#& WT@ rice& increa&e to an a.erage o- X39$3>"((% o.er the 81/>)810> erio* in the Lo#)Dierentia% an* ?igh)Dierentia% With E+ort& a&e& a& oo&e* to X34$=1"((% in the Lo#)Dierentia% No E+ort& a&e an*X37$3>"((% in the ?igh)Dierentia% No E+ort& a&e$ The range o- increa&e re%ate* to a%%o#ing e+ort& i& X8$8> to X7$11"((% a.erage*o.er 81/> to 810>$

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28/210

?ro!&ction !ecreases pricesAl4&ist an! &enette 1/ BRon A%I'i&t an* '&tin)Damien G'nette #ork -or the (ank o- ana*a$ 81/0, “A %e&&ingin Di&g'i&e! The @m%ication& o- ?igh G%o(a% Oi% :rice& -or the North American Market,” htt!""###$(anko-cana*a$ca"#)content"'%oa*&"81/0"1="#81/0)80$*- ""F#ei*eman

The re&ence o- the&e 'ncon.entiona% &o'rce& o- oi% thro'gho't the #or%* an* the a(i%ity to reco.erthem make& a %arge e+an&ion in the hy&ica% ro*'ction o- oi% a o&&i(i%ity$ Recente&timate& &'gge&t that a(o't 0$8 tri%%ion (arre%& o- 'ncon.entiona% cr'*e oi%, inc%'*ing ' to 871 (i%%ion (arre%& o- tight oi%, area.ai%a(%e #or%*#i*e 2@EA 81/8a5$ y 810>, a(o't /7 er cent o- oi% ro*'ction #i%% con&i&t o- 'ncon.entiona% oi%, an increa&e o- 3

ercentage oint&$ The otentia% -or 'ncon.entiona% oi% e+traction aro'n* the #or%* ha& %e* &omeoi% in*'&try ana%y&t& to *e&cri(e &cenario& in #hich the #or%* e+erience& an oi% g%'tan* a *ec%ine in oi% rice& o.er the me*i'm term 2Ma'geri 81/85$

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29/210

Impact-?roli#eraiton

8&ssia’s economy is 0ey to stop proli#eration*&0harin / BO%eg, A'g'&t, he i& aC%iate* #ith :rinceton ni.er&ity an* recei.e* hi& :h$D$ in hy&ic& -rom the Mo&co#@n&tit'te o- :hy&ic& an* Techno%ogy “The H't're o- R'&&ia! The N'c%ear Hactor”,

htt!""###$rinceton$e*'"%i&*"'(%ication&"#r'&&ia&erie&('kharin$*- ,""F#ei*eman

There are re&ent%y no *e;nite aner& a(o't the -'t're o- the n'c%ear &ec'rity agen*a in R'&&ia$ The R'&&ian n'c%ear %egacy – it& n'c%ear -orce&, then'c%ear)#eaon& ro*'ction an* o#er)generation com%e+, h'ge &tock& o- n'c%ear)'&ea(%e high%y enriche* 'rani'm an* %'toni'm, an* en.ironmenta%

c%ean)' ro(%em& – i& not going to go a#ay anytime &oon$ What i& c%ear i& that n'c%ear &ec'rity an*ro%i-eration ri&k& #i%% (e high a& %ong a& there remain their 'n*er%ying ca'&e&! theo.er&i


30/210

n'c%ear terrori&m$ D'e to their a&ymmetric *e&ta(i%i


31/210

Impact-8elations

,S-8&ssia tensions hi$h no2La3ott 1 BE%i&e La(ott, NN Horeign Aair& Reorter$ 0"//"/7, “kraine ima&&e &tir& $S$)R'&&ia ten&ion&”htt!""###$cnn$com"81/7"10"/1"#or%*"e'roe"'kraine)'&)r'&&ia)ten&ion&" ""F#ei*eman

Ten&ion& (et#een the nite* S tate& an* R'&& ia o.er the cri&i& in rimea ha.ee+%o*e* into an oen ro# a& R'&&ia reFect& $S$ *i%omatic eort& to &o%.e theima&&e$ R'&&ian Horeign Mini&ter Sergey La.ro. &ai* Mon*ay that $S$ Secretary o- State ohn erry o&tone* a -ace)to)-acemeeting #ith R'&&ian :re&i*ent K%a*imir :'tin to *i&c'&& American roo&a%&, #hich Mo&co# ha& eecti.e%y reFecte*, on &o%.ing the

cri&i&$ The meeting, #hich R'&&ia &ai* #a& &'o&e* to haen Mon*ay, #o'%* ha.emarke* the highe&t)%e.e% contact (et#een the t#o co'ntrie& &ince R'&&ian troo&took ' o&ition& in rimea , an* #o'%* ha.e come ahea* o- S'n*ayP& otentia%%ye+%o&i.e .ote on #hether rimea &ho'%* &%it -rom kraine an* Foin R'&&ia$ 't erryto%* La.ro. he nee*e* to kno# Mo&co# #o'%* engage &erio'&%y on a *i%omatic &o%'tion (e-ore meeting #ith the R'&&ian %ea*er$?e a%&o #ante* to &ee an* en* to R'&&iaP& Vro.ocati.e &te& V (e-ore tra.e%ing to

R'&&ia$ E+ert! We nee* a P:%an P -or kraine :ro)R'&&ian -orce& m'&c%e into (a&e What '&h a*min$ got #rong on R'&&iaRe%ation& (et#een R'&&ia an* the We&t ha.e gro#n increa&ing%y ten&e &ince R'&&ian &o%*ier& &ei


32/210

AtF !&tch !isease

8&ssia !oesn’t ha%e !&tch !isease" 3&t oil still mattersA!omanis 16 BMark, contri('ter to -or(e&, &ecia%i


33/210

ATF China t&rn

The ,S an! china cooperate o%er ener$yEC? 1/ BS hina Energy ooeration :roFect$ 81/0)//)81, “$S$)hina Energy ooeration :rogram 2E:5 an* hine&e@n&tit'te o- E%ectronic& 2@E5 La'nch oint $S$)hina Green Data enter @n*'&tria% @nitiati.e,”

htt!""###$'&chinaec$org"en"Ne#&"Ne#&Detai%$a&+_ni*`-=7e((*-)-3(e)7/9a)9/7=)a/8a=e0/199(Uci* *̀3>8(a1-)0(a8)70=8)9(84)e-40>(4=*409 ""WE@DEMAN

On No.em(er 81, 81/0, #ith &'ort o- the hine&e Mini&try o- @n*'&try an*@n-ormation Techno%ogy 2M@@T5 an* the $S$ Tra*e an* De.e%oment Agency 2STDA5,the $S$)hina Energy ooeration :rogram 2E:5 an* hine&e @n&tit'te o-E%ectronic& 2@E5 Foint%y %a'nche* the $S$)hina Green Data enter @n*'&try:artner&hi at the S hina Green Data enter Work&ho at the iy'an ?ote% in eiFing$ Thekey re%ate* i&&'e& o- the *e.e%o ment o- the energy eCcient "green *ata center&ector, #hich inc%'*e&! market , nee*&, oort'nitie& , cha%%enge&, techno%ogy&o%'tion& an* (e&t ractice& , e.a%'ation metho*& an* etc, ha.e (een a**re&&e* an* *i&c'&&e* atthe #ork&ho$ At the #ork&ho, the t#o &i*e& on (eha%- o- the articiating $S$ an* hine&ein*'&trie&, &igne* a MEMORANDM OH NDERSTAND@NG Hor ooeration on GreenData enter to romote S)hina @n*'&try cooeration in hinaJ& green *ata center &ector$ SenioroCcia%& -rom the Deartment o- Energy ECciency an* Re&o'rce& ti%i


34/210

X/>1 mi%%ion in ;nancia% &'ort -rom '(%ic an* ri.ate &o'rce& o.er ;.e year&$ E%ectric Kehic%e& @nitiati.e$ Thi& initiati.e inc%'*e& the Foint *e.e%oment o- &tan*ar*& -or charging %'g& an* te&ting rotoco%& o-(atterie& an* other *e.ice&, *emon&tration roFect& in aire* citie& to co%%ect an* &hare *ata on charging attern& an* con&'merre-erence&, Foint *e.e%oment o- technica% roa*ma&, an* '(%ic e*'cation roFect&$ Energy ECciency Action :%an$ othgo.ernment& are #orking together #ith the ri.ate &ector to *e.e%o energy eCcient ('i%*ing co*e& an* rating &y&tem&, (enchmarkin*'&tria% energy eCciency, train ('i%*ing in&ector& an* energy eCciency a'*itor& -or in*'&tria% -aci%itie&, harmoni


35/210

ATF Oil shoc0s

Oil shoc0s !on’t collapse the economyels" ?ra!han" an! An!reopo&los 11 By oachim He%&, ManoF :ra*han, Syro& An*reoo'%o&! Write -orMorgan Stan%ey) economic in&tit'tion$ March 7, 81//$ “Thi& Time @& Dierent”

htt!""###$morgan&tan%ey$com".ie#&"ge-"archi.e"81//"81//1017)Hri$htm% ""F#ei*eman

Wi%% e%e.ate* oi% rice& generate a &har &%o#*o#n_ The recent r'n)' in oi% rice&ha& in.e&tor& #orrie* that a &har &%o#*o#n in g%o(a% gro#th %ie& ahea*$ Wor&e,#ith the oi% market increa&ing%y ricing the ri&k that the &hock may (e ermanent )the Dec 81/8 -'t're& contract tra*e& at aro'n* SX/13 er (arre% ) there i& e.en ta%k o- the o&&i(i%ity o- ag%o(a% rece&&ion$ We think not, -or t#o (roa* rea&on&$ Hir&t, oi% rice& con&tit'te#ea%th re*i&tri('tion , not #ea%th *e&tr'ction$ An* &econ*, thi& time i& *ierent! a&thing& &tan*, #e think that the c'rrent oi% &hock i& 'n%ike%y to harm gro#th m'ch$?igher oi% rice& re*i&tri('te #ea%th rather than *e&troying it$ Hrom a g%o(a%er&ecti.e, higher oi% rice& *o not mean that #ea%th i& *e&troye*$ Rather, it i&re*i&tri('te* ) -rom net oi% imorter& to net e+orter& 2&ee (e%o# on The Eect& o- Oi% :rice Shock&5$

Whi%e thi& #ea%th tran&-er can (e &'(&tantia%, m'ch o- it i&, o.er time, recyc%e* (ack into net oi%)imorter economie&! Oi% e+orter& #i%% &en* &ome o- their ne#%y gaine* oi% #ea%th on imort& -rom net imorter&6hence, increa&e* imort *eman* re%ace& &ome o- the *ome&tic *eman* %o&t *'e tothe #ea%th tran&-er6 Oi% e+orter& #i%% a%&o 'rcha&e a&&et& in net imortereconomie&, ro.i*ing &'ort -or a&&et market& there$ E.en &o, oi% &hock& ha.ea%#ay& (een re*i&tri('ti.e ) yet arg'a(%y they ha.e *one con&i*era(%e *amage to the g%o(a% economy in the a&t$

The /3=1&, #hen oi% rice &ike& rece*e* t#o &'cce&&i.e rece&&ion&, are he%* ' a& the rime e+am%e& o- the harm that oi% can *oto the economy$ So, it i& temting to %ook at the eect& o- re.io'& oi% &hock& in or*er to in-er the con&eI'ence& o- the c'rrent one$We #o'%* 'rge ca'tion, ho#e.er, a& a%% e%&e i& not eI'a%$ Many thing& are *ierent thi& time, &o a gi.en increa&e in the rice o- oi%

&ho'%* (e %e&& harm-'% no# than it #o'%* ha.e (een in the /3=1&! /$ Nat're o- the Shock @t i& #orth (earingin min* that the increa&e in the oi% rice &ince Setem(er ha& (een *'e to a mi+t'reo- *eman* an* &'%y inQ'ence&$ M'ch o- the ri&e in the rice o- rent &ince Setem(er -rom a %e.e% o- a(o'tSX91 er (arre% to a(o't SX/11 #a& *'e to *eman*, in o'r .ie#, #ith the oi% market rericing the g%o(a% gro#th an* inQationtraFectory$ @t i& on%y the recent ri&e, *'e to e.ent& in the Mi**%e Ea&t, that con&tit'te& a &'%y &hock$ That i&, &'%y ha& acco'nte*

-or %e&& than ha%- o- the oi% rice increa&e &ince Setem(er$ Why *oe& the *i&tinction matter_ Oi% *eman* &hock& *'eto &trength in the rea% economy are en*ogeno'&6 they are 'n%ike%y to *erai% gro#th$

The rice o- oi% mere%y act& %ike an e%a&tic %ea&h on the *og that i& the g%o(a%economy$ @- the *og &'rge& ahea* too I'ick%y, the con&tricting eect o- the %ea&h#i%% make &'re it &%o#& *o#n ) ('t it #i%% not &to$ et#een 8110 an* 811=, the rea% rice o- oi% ro'gh%y*o'(%e*, #ith %itt%e e.i*ent harm to the g%o(a% economy$ 't e+ogeno'&, &'%y)in*'ce* &hock& ten* to (e &tagQationary in nat're$@n the *og metahor, an oi% &'%y &hock co'%* act a& a Ferk on the %ea&h, #hich co'%* (ring the *og to a ha%t$ 8$ @nitia% on*ition&

Thi& reco.ery i& &ti%% in re%ati.e%y ear%y &tage& an* th'& more ro('&t than a %ate)cyc%e reco.ery$ Thi& i& art%y (eca'&e er&ona%&a.ing& rate& are higher ear%y in the cyc%e than %ate in the cyc%e, ro.i*ing more o- a c'&hion -or con&'mer &en*ing$ A%&o, cororatero;t margin& are '&'a%%y higher ear%y on in the cyc%e than %ate in the cyc%e, an* comanie& can th'& more ea&i%y a(&or( the co&t'&h -rom higher oi% rice&$ Mo&t imortant%y, g%o(a% monetary con*ition& are .ery %oo&e, ro.i*ing a c'&hion to the rea% economy$ 0$

Str'ct're o- the Economy The oi% inten&ity o- g%o(a% GD: i& %o#er$ That i&, %e&& oi% i& '&e*to*ay to ro*'ce a *o%%ar o- GD:$ ?ence, a gi.en ercentage increa&e in theinQation)a*F'&te* rice o- oi% #i%% *o %e&& *amage to the economy no#$ La(o'r

market& are more Qe+i(%e! The eect o- an oi% &'%y &hock on em%oyment an* o't't i& %arger, the %e&& rea% #age&a*F'&t in re&on&e$ More Qe+i(%e %a(o'r market& make rea% #age& more re&on&i.e to &'%y &hock&, th'& *amening the eect& onro*'ction an* em%oyment$ Monetary o%icy i& more cre*i(%e! A more cre*i(%e centra% (ank nee*& to act %e&&, a%% e%&e eI'a%, toachie.e a gi.en o(Fecti.e$ @n the ca&e o- an oi% &hock, the im%ication i& that monetary o%icy nee*& to *o %e&& harm to the rea%economy to achie.e a gi.en *amening eect on inQation$ 7$ :o%icy Re&on&e in Net @morting Economie&! bRationa% @nactionP Mean&entra% ank& Wi%% ee Rate& on ?o%* The o%icy re&on&e to an oi% &hock i& an imortant *eterminant o- the o.era%% economiceect$ @- centra% (ank& #ere to tighten in re&on&e to inQation, the *amening eect o- the initia% oi% &hock on the economy #o'%* (eam%i;e*$ We ha.e F'&t arg'e*, in .ery genera% term&, that a more cre*i(%e monetary o%icy reI'ire& %e&& o- a re&on&e to achie.e a*e&ire* eect$ @n thi& artic'%ar ca&e, ho#e.er, #e *o not e+ect m'ch o- a re&on&e in the ;r&t %ace! in o'r .ie#, mo&t centra%(ank& #i%% not tighten o%icy aggre&&i.e%y in re&on&e to the recent &'rge in oi% rice&$ Thi& i& %ike%y to (e tr'e -or (oth DM an* EMmonetary a'thoritie&$ Again, thi& reaction ) or rather, the %ack o- one ) i& rationa%! it i& .irt'a%%y imo&&i(%e to -oreca&t #hether thec'rrent &'%y #orrie& #i%% a(ate or not, &o a b#ait an* &eeP &tance make& &en&e$ >$ Oi% E+orter&P eha.io'r May e Materia%%yDierent Oi% e+orter& #i%% %ike%y &en* more o- the #ea%th tran&-er than '&'a%! With the ri&k o- &ocia% 'nre&t increa&ing,

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go.ernment& #i%% (e inc%ine* to increa&e &en*ing an* tran&-er& in or*er to maintain &ta(i%ity$ Thi& &'gge&t& that a %arger art o- theinitia% #ea%th tran&-er -rom net e+orter& to net imorter& #i%% (e re.er&e*, o.er time, thro'gh goo*& imort& o- the -ormer -rom the%atter$ At c'rrent rice&, oi% ro*'cer& #i%% ro(a(%y #ant to make ' a meaning-'% art o- the Li(yan ro*'ction &hort-a%% o.er theme*i'm term ) not %ea&t (eca'&e *oing &o #i%% generate a**itiona% re.en'e #ith #hich &ocia% &ta(i%ity can (e (o'ght$ O'r commo*ity&trategy team think& that there i& eno'gh &are caacity to *o &o 2&ee r'*e Oi%! MENA T'rm)O@L, He(r'ary 8>, 81//5$


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arms 'A


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1NC

Dater poll&tion #rom r&no on ,S #arms has a%oi!e!re$&lation so #ar 3&t contin&e! eemption is not $&arantee!

Da.i* $ 8o3erts ), a&&i&tant ro-e&&or in the Deartment o- Agri('&ine&& an*A%ie* Economic& at North Dakota State ni.er&ity6 hri&toher D$ %ark, a&&ociatero-e&&or in the Deartment o- Agric'%t'ra% Economic& at the ni.er&ity o-

Tenne&&ee6 an* 'rton $ Eng%i&h, Wi%%iam M$ :ark an* Ro%an* $ Ro(ert&, ro-e&&or&in the Deartment o- Agric'%t'ra% Economic& at the ni.er&ity o- Tenne&&ee,“E&timating Ann'a%i$8)meter 2>1)-eet5 riarian ('er a%ong #ater#ay& in the Ne'&e an* Tar):am%ico Ri.er a&in& 2North aro%ina Deartment o- En.ironment an* Nat'ra% Re&o'rce&5$ KirginiaJ& he&aeake ay :re&er.ation Act ro.i*e& -or 01$7)meter 2/11)-eet5 ('er area& a%ong &eci;ca%%y *e&ignate* “Re&o'rce :rotection Area&,” ('t a%%o#& encroachment& into ('er area& -or agric'%t'ra% an*&i%.ic'%t'ra% acti.itie& 'n*er certain con*ition& 2he&aeake ay Loca% A&&i&tance oar*5$ Riarian ('er &tri&area& o- tree&, &hr'(&, or other.egetation a%ong &'r-ace #ater (o*ie&ha.e a%&o %aye* a rominent ro%e in -e*era% an* &tate .o%'ntary rogram& to re*'ce N:S o%%'tion$ Hor e+am%e,the on&er.ation Re&er.e :rogram ha& &'orte* the '&e o- ('er &tri& &ince /399 2:rato an* Shi5 an* -'n*& ma*e a.ai%a(%e to &tate& thro'gh the WAJ&Section 0/3 rogram are o-ten '&e* to &'(&i*i


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another$ Hor e+am%e, the on&er.ation Re&er.e Enhancement :rogram, #hich &'(&i*i=,111 mi%e& o- riarian ('er&, ;%ter &tri&, an* #et%an*& in &tate& in the he&aeake ay #ater&he* 2onham, o&ch, an* :ea&e5$

IOOS lea!s to ne2 policies to pre%ent harm#&l al$al 3looms---res&lts in stricter re$&lation on non-point so&rces o# n&trientpoll&tion li0e a$ric&lt&re

Dr$ Dona%* An!erson (, Senior Scienti&t in the io%ogy Deartment o- the Woo*&?o%e Oceanograhic @n&tit'tion an* Director o- the $S$ Nationa% OCce -or Marineioto+in& an* ?arm-'% A%ga% %oom&, :h* in AI'atic Science& -rom M@T, Writtente&timony re&ente* to the ?o'&e ommittee on Science an* Techno%ogy,S'(committee on Energy an* En.ironment, '%y /1 8119,htt!""###$#hoi$e*'"age$*o_i*`93/>Uti*`898Uci*`7411= The&e are ('t a -e# o- the a*.ance& in 'n*er&tan*ing that ha.e accr'e* -rom EO?A regiona% -'n*ing$ EI'a%%y imortant are the *i&co.erie& that

ro.i*e management too%& to re*'ce the imact& o- ?A& on coa&ta% re&o'rce&$ Management otion& -or *ea%ing #ith theimact& o- 9 ?A& inc%'*e re*'cing their inci*ence an* e+tent 2re.ention5, &toing or containing (%oom&2contro%5, an* minimi 81/7,htt!""tran&ortation$ho'&e$go."'%oa*e*;%e&"81/7)10)8>)&haer$*-

Hi-th, the 'n*er%ying a&&'mtion that it i& ea&y an* ine+en&i.e -or #armers an! nonpoint

so&rces to re*'ce n'trient %oa*ing i& a myth$ oncet o- Water 'a%ity Tra*ing Harm 'rea' o%icy &'ort&the concet o- #ater I'a%ity tra*ing6 im%icit in that i& the notion that articiation (y -armer& i& .o%'ntary an* that the &y&tem reQect& the rea%itie& o-


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agric'%t're$ Harm 'rea' ha& a %ong hi&tory o- &'orting market)(a&e* aroache& to imro.ing the en.ironment$ We ha.e a%&o enco'rage* &tate& toinc%'*e tra*ing in their too%(o+ to he% im%ement &tate #ater I'a%ity rogram& (eca'&e tra*ing an* o&et& can re*'ce co&t& a&&ociate* #ith achie.ingen.ironmenta% imro.ement&$ E.en #ith that hi&tory o- &'ort, ho#e.er, -armer& an* rancher& remain &ketica% o- tra*ing rogram& in genera% an*tho&e a&&ociate* #ith #ater I'a%ity &eci;ca%%y, an* -or goo* rea&on$ Harmer& gro# thing& an* 'n*er&tan* that n'trient enrichment i& a re*icta(%eo'tcome o- a%% h'man acti.itie& – not F'&t -arming an* ranching acti.itie&$ Harmer& 'n*er&tan* that agric'%t'ra% acti.itie& – %ike tho&e in .irt'a%%y e.eryother art o- %i-e, &'ch a& &hoing ma%%&, go%- co'r&e&, re&i*entia% area& to name F'&t a -e# – can aect the amo'nt o- n'trient& that reach o'r #ater&$ The-act i&, each an* e.ery one o- '& %ay& a ro%e in #ater I'a%ity6 #e a%% contri('te to n'trient %oa*ing, either *irect%y or in*irect%y, thro'gh the -oo* #e

con&'me, the ro*'ct& #e 'rcha&e, an* the #ay #e %i.e o'r %i.e&$ n-ort'nate%y, E:AJ& en.ironmenta% &trategie& tooo-ten -oc'& more on aC+ing (%ame -or ro(%em& or reg'%ating &ome acti.ity or

er&on, rather than ;n*ing &o%'tion& that recogni


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tra*ing rogram$ The Myth& – It’s Neither Easy Nor Inepensi%e @t i& o-ten a&&'me* that agric'%t're can &'%ycre*it& %e&& e+en&i.e%y than other nonoint an* oint &o'rce&$ Whether or not thi& i& tr'e *een*& hea.i%y on the tra*ing r'%e& an* roce*'re& *e&cri(e*re.io'&%y$ a&e%ine reI'irement& rere&ent one tra*ing r'%e that ha& an imortant imact on agric'%t'reJ& a(i%ity to (e the %o#)rice &'%ier o- cre*it&$ a&e%ine reI'irement& e&ta(%i&h the %e.e% o- &te#ar*&hi -armer& an* rancher& er-orm on a arce% o- %an* (e-ore they are e%igi(%e to articiate in thetra*ing rogram an* act'a%%y ro*'ce cre*it& -or &a%e$ Any a(atement nece&&ary to meet the (a&e%ine cannot (e &o%* a& cre*it&, ('t i& in&tea* cre*ite* tomeeting the %oa* a%%ocation -or agric'%t're$ When (a&e%ine& are more &tringent than c'rrent ractice&, a -armer #o'%* on%y (e #i%%ing to create an* &e%%cre*it& i- the e+ecte* cre*it rice #ere high eno'gh to co.er the co&t o- meeting the (a&e%ine %'& the co&t o- any mea&'re& taken to ro*'ce a**itiona%a(atement$ Thi& increa&e& the co&t o- &'%ying cre*it&, an* re*'ce& the amo'nt o- cre*it& 'rcha&e* (y oint &o'rce&$ 'rrent re&earch &'gge&t& thatconcern& a(o't (a&e%ine reI'irement& are #e%% -o'n*e*$ Stehen&on et a%$ 281/15 -o'n* that #hen the (a&e%ine i& more &tringent than c'rrent ractice&,agric'%t'ra% cre*it co&t& -or nitrogen can &'ra&& co&t& er o'n* 2-or margina% a(atement5 -or oint &o'rce& (eca'&e the (a&e%ine ha& c%aime* the %o#e&t)co&t o%%'tant re*'ction&$ Gho&h et a%$ 281//5 -o'n* that :enn&y%.aniaJ& (a&e%ine reI'irement& &igni;cant%y increa&e* the co&t o- entering a tra*ingrogram, making it 'n%ike%y that nonoint &o'rce& that co'%* re*'ce n'trient %o&&e& -or the %o#e&t 'nit co&t& #o'%* enter the market$ Wi&con&in ha&e+re&&e* concern that E:AJ& aroach to *e;ning (a&e%ine& co'%* o(&tr'ct agric'%t'ra% &o'rce&J articiation in tra*ing rogram& an* o&&i(%y ime*e#ater I'a%ity imro.ement& 2ramer, 81105$ The imact o- (a&e%ine reI'irement& i& a cr'cia% matter an* -'n*amenta% to the &'cce&&-'% oeration o- anytra*ing rogram, tho'gh it& imact i& not 'niI'e$ Any tra*ing r'%e or reI'irement that i& incorrect%y *e.e%oe* can ha.e &imi%ar eect&! -e#er nonoint&o'rce cre*it& 'rcha&e* (y oint &o'rce&, an* tota% a(atement co&t& -or reg'%ate* &o'rce& higher than they co'%* ha.e (een$ A& a reg'%atory agency,E:A aear& to ha.e *iCc'%ty areciating the rea%itie& o- ho# market& -'nction$ The agency i& not nece&&ari%y ta&ke* #ith creating ri.ate market& an*mo&t eo%e #o'%* ro(a(%y agree that the agency ha& *iCc'%ty areciating the rea%itie& o- ho# rea% market& -'nction$ A& a re&'%t, en.ironmenta%market& are &'ering -rom a &igni;cant cre*ita(i%ity cri&i&$ Thi& '%timate%y re&'%t& in &ketica% -armer& an* rancher& #ho then take a ca'tio'& aroach to

n'trient tra*ing$ Regar*ing the co&t o- re*'cing n'trient %oa*&, i- it #ere ea&y an* ine+en&i.e -or -armer& an*

rancher& to re*'ce n'trient %oa*ing&, they 2o&l! ha%e alrea!y 7$&re! o&t a

2ay to cat're the (ene;t a&&ociate* #ith incrementa% n'trient& %o&t to the

en.ironment$ Harmer& to*ay '&e &ome o- the mo&t a*.ance* techno%ogy in the#or%* to otimi


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(oo&t o't't that m'ch_ We%%, itJ& (een *one (e-ore$ A*.ance& in the '&e o- -erti%i


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AT ?olitical Opposition

Their e%i!ence o%erestimates the #arm lo33y’s clo&t---the #arm3ill pro%es it’s too 2ea0 to inJ&ence policies

Ron Nion 1/, NY Time&, '%y 0 81/0, “Harm i%% De-eat Sho#& Agric'%t'reJ&Waning :o#er,” htt!""###$nytime&$com"81/0"1="10"'&"o%itic&"-arm)(i%%)*e-eat)&ho#&)agric'%t're&)#aning)o#er$htm%

WAS?@NGTON The &tart%ing -ai%'re o- the -arm (i%% %a&t month reQect& the !eclinin$ clo&t o#

the #arm lo33y an* the once)o#er-'% committee& that ha.e F'ri&*iction o.er agric'%t're o%icy, economists

an! political scientists sai! thi& #eek$ A%tho'gh a n'm(er o- -actor& contri('te* to the *e-eat o- the (i%% inc%'*ing Seaker ohn A$ oehnerJ& -ai%'re to ra%%y eno'gh Re'(%ican &'ort an* Democratic oo&ition to X81 (i%%ion in c't& to

the -oo* &tam& rogram ana%y&t& &ai* the 807 to /3> .ote a%&o i%%'&trate* the shi#t in the American

o'%ation an* political po2er to more 'r(an area&$ “There are a &ma%% n'm(er o- ongre&&iona%*i&trict& #here -arming contin'e& to carry m'ch ay,” &ai* Kincent ?$ Smith, a ro-e&&or o- agric'%t'ra% economic& at Montana

State ni.er&ity$ “E&ecia%%y in the ?o'&e, the -arm %o((y ha& (een s&3stantially

2ea0ene! $” Hor m'ch o- American hi&tory, the agric'%t're &ector& #ie%*e*

tremen*o'& o%itica% o#er$ Harm gro'& #ere a(%e to get key -arm %egi&%ation a&&e* (y ra%%ying mi%%ion& o- -armer&in near%y e.ery ongre&&iona% *i&trict$ @nQ'entia% -arm &tate %egi&%ator& %ike Rere&entati.e amie L$ Whitten o- Mi&&i&&ii, aDemocrat #ho #a& chairman o- the Aroriation& ommittee an* it& &'(committee on agric'%t're, (ro'ght (i%%ion& in agric'%t're;nancing to their &tate& an* -o'ght o attemt& to c't &'(&i*y rogram& *e&ite re&&'re -rom (oth %i(era%& an* con&er.ati.e&$ Mr$

Whitten *ie* in /33> a-ter >0 year& in ongre&&$ 't a& American& ha.e mo.e* to the citie& an*&'('r(&, -armer& an* %a#maker& rere&enting *i&trict& %arge%y *een*ent on

agric'%t're ha.e &een their political m&scle stea!ily !ecline $ '&t 8$8 mi%%ion eo%e no##ork in -arming in the nite* State&, or a(o't 8$> ercent o- the tota% #ork -orce$ Harming no# acco'nt& -or a(o't / ercent o-

gro&& nationa% ro*'ct, *o#n -rom a high o- a(o't 3 ercent in /3>1$ Only 9 la2ma0ers rere&ent %arge%y

-arming *i&trict&, accor*ing to re&earch (y Mr$ Smith in 8114$ ?e &ai* that n'm(er #a& ro(a(%y &ma%%er to*ay$

?olitical opposition is ins&Kcient to stop en%ironmentalre$&lation---$reenho&se $as re$&lations pro%e

onathan ?$ A!ler 1/, :ro- o- La# an* Director o- the enter -or '&ine&& La# UReg'%ation at a&e We&tern Re&er.e ni.er&ity Schoo% o- La#, Oct 0 81/0,“on&er.ati.e& an* En.ironmenta% Reg'%ation,”htt!""###$.o%okh$com"81/0"/1"10"con&er.ati.e&)en.ironmenta%)reg'%ation"

Anti-re$&latory rhetoric may (e er.a&i.e, ('t #e!eral en%ironmental

re$&lation has contin&e! to epan! , 'n*er Democratic an* Re'(%ican re&i*ent& a%ike$ Anti)

reg'%atory con&er.ati.e& ha.e (een a(%e to &tem the ti*e o- reg'%atory initiati.e&,

('t only #or a time $ The -ai%'re to *e.e%o an* a*.ance non)reg'%atory a%ternati.e& to en.ironmenta% ro(%em& ha& comromi&e*

eort& to con&train the E:AJ& reg'%atory a'thority$ There are %enty o- American& #ho are &'&icio'& o- -e*era%

reg'%ation, ('t they nonetheless re-er -e*era% en.ironmenta% reg'%ation to no

en.ironmenta% rotection at a%%$ The -ai%'re o- anti)reg'%atory con&er.ati&m i& on *i&%ay in the c'rrent ;ghto.er -e*era% reg'%ation o- greenho'&e ga&e& $ ?o'&e Re'(%ican& oo&e &'chreg'%ation 2an* -or goo* rea&on5, ('t they ha.e not 't -or#ar* any a%ternati.e& 2an* many re-'&e to accet that c%imate change co'%* (e a

ro(%em5$ Nonetheless , -e*era% reg'%ation o- G?G& marche& on$ The E:A F'&t roo&e* another &et o- r'%e&

%a&t month$ %anket oo&ition to -e*era% G?G reg'%ation #aile! to re.ent 2or e%en

apprecia3ly slo2 s&ch re$&lation , an* time i& r'nning o't$ A& G?G emi&&ion contro%& get imo&e*, an* comanie&

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/03/us/politics/farm-bill-defeat-shows-agricultures-waning-power.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/03/us/politics/farm-bill-defeat-shows-agricultures-waning-power.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/03/us/politics/farm-bill-defeat-shows-agricultures-waning-power.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/03/us/politics/farm-bill-defeat-shows-agricultures-waning-power.html


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in.e&t in the nece&&ary contro% techno%ogie&, the o%itica% &'ort -or con&training E:A a'thority o.er G?G& #i%% *ec%ine$ ti%itie& may not #ant to gi.e 'coa% or in&ta%% co&t%y car(on cat're techno%ogie&, ('t once theyJ.e ma*e the&e in.e&tment& they #i%% har*%y #ant to &ee the reg'%ation& remo.e*$ @- the&er'%e& are not &toe* &oon, it #i%% (e too %ate$ Thi& i& a rea&on e.en tho&e #ho re-'&e to accet the %ike%ihoo* o- c%imate change &ho'%* con&i*era%ternati.e& to comman* an* contro% reg'%ation$ Sho'ting “No” i& in&'Ccient to en&'re &'cce&&$


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AT La3or Shorta$es

arm la3or shorta$es are a myth that repeate!ly #ail to pano&t

ohn Carney 16, N, “More Data on The :hony Harm La(or ri&i&,” 01 A'g81/8, htt!""###$cn(c$com"i*"7997=310@tJ& (ecome &omething o- an ann&al tra!ition. E%ery s&mmer , ne#&aer& aro'n* the co'ntry

ro%% o't &torie& o- a %a(or &hortage on -arm&$ The #r&it is $oin$ to rot in the

orchar*&, cro& #i%% go 'nicke*, agric'%t'ra% comm'nitie& #i%% (e *e.a&tate* 'n%e&&&omething i& *one, the &torie& re*ict$ ?ereJ& a retty tyica% .er&ion o- the &tory, a& to%* (y the San Hranci&co hronic%e! 't the American Harm 'rea'He*eration an* it& a%i-ornia chater (e%ie.e there i& %enty o- rea&on to #orry$ VThere ha.e (een in&tance& in #hich gro#er& ha* to *i&c ' #ho%e cro&(eca'&e they *i*nPt ha.e the #ork-orce to har.e&t,V &ai* ri&ti oe%%, the Harm 'rea'P& *irector o- congre&&iona% re%ation&$ She oint& to Georgia, #here#ho%e tomato ;e%*& #ere %o#e* 'n*er %a&t year$ VThe #ork-orce ha& (een *ecrea&ing in the %a&t t#o to three year&, ('t %a&t year it #a& *ra&tic$V An*

-armer& are &aying thi& year i& e.en #or&e$ @n recent year&, #eJ.e &een F'&t ho# re&i%ient thi& narrati.e rea%%y i&$ Yo'J* think the i*ea o- a %a(or &hortage in the mi*&t o- on ongoing Fo( *ro'ght #o'%* (e %a'ghe* o't o-to#n$ 2Rea* more! When Are Yo' Retiring_$$$?o# Doe& Ne.er So'n*_5 't &omeho# the &tory kee& getting to%*an* taken &erio'&%y$ Accor*ing to the Harm La(or Shortage Mytho%ogi&t&, American

citi (i%%ion to X8$4 (i%%ion$

The mytho%ogica% Ari"87"/0, “Hamer& So%.e La(or Shortage (y Rai&ing :ay,”htt!""###$the*ai%y(ea&t$com"artic%e&"81/0"1>"87"-amer&)&o%.e)%a(or)&hortage)(y)rai&ing)ay$htm%

Harm o#ner& ha.e re&on*e* to -ear& o- a %a(or &hortage (y act&ally raisin$

2a$es (y a %itt%e (it$ The Deartment o- Agric'%t're reort&! Harm oerator& ai* their hire*

#orker& an a.erage #age o- X//$3/ er ho'r *'ring the Ari% 81/0 re-erence #eek, ' 7 ercent


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-rom a year ear%ier$ Hie%* #orker& recei.e* an a.erage o- X/1$38 er ho'r, ' 7 ercent -rom a year ear%ier$Li.e&tock #orker& earne* X//$74, ' >/ cent&$ The ;e%* an* %i.e&tock #orker com(ine* #age rate, at X//$/1 er

ho'r, #a& ' 79 cent& -rom a year ear%ier$ ?ire* %a(orer& #orke* an a.erage o- 71$0 ho'r&*'ring the Ari% 81/0 re-erence #eek, comare* #ith 03$8 ho'r& a year ear%ier $ May(e &omeone &ho'%* te%% the :artner&hi -or a Ne# American Economy a(o't thi&$ @tP& F'&t cra


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AT *raHil Sol%es

*raHil !oesn’t sol%e---lac0 o# in#rastr&ct&reA%i&tair Ste2art 1/, So'th America orre&on*ent -or DTN"The :rogre&&i.e

Harmer, 9"4"/0, “ra487EA0DE01=7$ag-reeF.m/_(%og?an*%e`&o'thamericaU(%ogEntry@*`9a98c1(c0e703=4e1/71>>(10e47/744

E.ery(o*y kno#& the (igge&t ro(%em& -acing ra1Z thi& &ea&on,reaching X0$/3 er ('&he% at the eak o- the &oy(ean har.e&t, #hi%e &hi& #ere #aiting -or ' to =1 *ay& to %oa* (ean& at

:aranag'a$ With *em'rrage co&t& 2(a&ica%%y &hi renta%5 at X/>,111 to X81,111, that #ait can (e .ery e+en&i.e$ VWhi%e #e *onPtre&o%.e the %ogi&tic& I'e&tion&, #e are in.iting other %ayer& to enter into the game,V &ai* '%io To%e*o :i, ('t #ork i& yet to &tart on many &tretche& an*, rea%i&tica%%y, (ean& #i%% Qo# a%ong thi& ro'te in 81/9 at the ear%ie&t$ Many

other roFect& ha.e (een &imi%ar%y !elaye! or s&spen!e! *'e to ro(%em& #ith

im%ementation$ Hace* #ith &ira%ing -reight co&t&, the atience o- -arm %ea*er& ha& (een #earing thin -or a #hi%e$ VWeare to%* that thing& are imro.ing ('t #e canPt #ait$ The ina(i%ity o- the go.ernment to *e%i.er roFect& on time i& 'nacceta(%e,Vaccor*ing to ar%o& Ha.aro, re&i*ent o- the ra


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mean& go.ernment a'*itor& are 4&ic0 to s&spen! projects #hen &'&icion& ari&e$ nti%

the&e ro(%em& are &o%.e*, ra


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Et ,

N&trient r&no #rom #arms is c&rrently &nre$&late!en ir0 16, E+ec'ti.e Director at the Nationa% A&&ociation o- %ean Water

Agencie&, D -rom Georgeto#n ni.er&ity La# enter an* Ma&terJ& in En.ironmenta%La# -rom GW La# Schoo%, 'ne 81 81/8, “@& the %ean Water Act roken an* anWe Hi+ @t_” htt!""(%og$nac#a$org"i&)the)c%ean)#ater)act)(roken)an*)can)#e);+)it"M'ch ha& (een #ritten an* #i%% contin'e to (e #ritten a(o't the %ean Water Act thi&year a& #e ce%e(rate the ActJ& 71th anni.er&ary$ @ *onJt think anyone #o'%* arg'e the -act that the Act ha& (eengreat -or o'r #ater#ay& or that #e #o'%* (e m'ch #or&e o #itho't it$ 't no# #eJ.e entere* a m'ch more*iCc'%t an* com%e+ erio* in the hi&tory o- the %ean Water Act$ He*era% money contin'e& to *ry '$ o&t&contin'e to increa&e$ An* reI'irement& ha.e (ecome more &tringent$ We a%&o ha.e many ne# cha%%enge& to *ea%

#ith inc%'*ing c%imate change, a%tere* #eather attern&, an* o'%ation gro#th, to name F'&t a -e#$ An* #eJre

&ti%% &tr'gg%ing #ith ho# to a**re&& #et #eather an* re%ate* r'no, partic&larly a& thi& re%ate&

to n&trients arg'a(%y one o- o'r (igge&t c%ean #ater i&&'e& right no#$ An* yet, nonpoint

so&rces remain &nre$&late! $ ?o# ha& thi& (een a%%o#e* to contin'e_ LetJ& %ook (ack in time -or a

min'te$ e-ore the %ean Water Act, *i&charge #a& %arge%y 'nreg'%ate*$ We kno# thi& #a&not a goo* thing$ Then , *'ring the ;r&t 81 year& o- the Act, the -oc'& #a& on #a&te#atertreatment -rom *ome&tic an* in*'&tria% oint &o'rce& an* the (roa* '&e o- &econ*ary treatmentto accom%i&h the ActJ& goa%&$ @ (e%ie.e thi& #a& the right thing to *o at the time$ n-ort'nate%y, thi& entire

time, nonoint &o'rce& inc%'*ing agric'%t'ra% oeration&ha.e completely

a%oi!e! re$&latory responsi3ility -or their &hare o- the #ater o%%'tion ro(%em $@- #e contin'e to ignore thi& .ery maFor &o'rce o- #ater I'a%ity imairment, then it #i%% come at great co&t to a%%ta+ayer&$

'espite 2ater re$&lations" a$ric&lt&ral r&no is not restricte!Nei%a Seaman 1/, Director, Sierra %'( @o#a hater, “@OWA LEADERS ST@LL NOT:ROTET@NG WATER AL@TY,”

htt!""io#a$&ierrac%'($org"AHO&"@ALea*er&Sti%%Not:rotectingWater'a%ity$htm There are t#o &o'rce& o- #ater o%%'tion$ :oint &o'rce& are citie&, to#n& an*in*'&trie& that treat their #a&te#ater (e-ore itJ& ie* into a recei.ing #ater re&o'rce$

They are hea.i%y reg'%ate*$ Non)oint &o'rce& are rimari%y agric'%t'ra% r'no -rom

-erti%i


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Et oo! Insec&rity - Dar

oo! shorta$es ca&se n&clear 2orl! 2ar /'I 16, H't're Direction& @nternationa%, a Re&earch in&tit'te ro.i*ing &trategic

ana%y&i& o- A'&tra%iaJ& g%o(a% intere&t&6 citing Lin*&ay Ha%.ery, :hD in Agric'%t'ra%Science an* -ormer :ro-e&&or at the ni.er&ity o- Me%(o'rneJ& @n&tit'te o- Lan* an*En.ironment, “Hoo* an* Water @n&ec'rity! @nternationa% onQict Trigger& U :otentia%onQict :oint&,” htt!""###$-'t're*irection&$org$a'"#ork&ho)aer&">0=)internationa%)conQict)trigger&a

ioos neg wave 1 - northwestern 2014

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