Study #1835

The Des Moines Register/ Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll

Selzer & Company Study #2118402 Republican likely caucusgoersMay 25-29, 2015Compared to 437 Democratic likely caucusgoers4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, andMargin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicanscongressional district to conform to active voters Margin of error 4.7 percentage points for Democratsin the Iowa voter registration list

About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, is based on telephone interviews with 402 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 437 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.

Poll Questions

BASED ON REPUBLICAN CAUCUSGOERS

Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?

100YesContinue

-NoTerminate

-Not sure

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus?

-Definitely attend Democratic caucusContinue

-Probably attend Democratic caucus

36Definitely attend Republican caucus

64Probably attend Republican caucus

-Probably not attend a caucusTerminate

-Dont know which caucus will attend

-Not sure

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?

68Attended Republican caucus in the past

4Attended Democratic caucus in the past

11Attended both

17First caucus

1Not sure

Were interested in what you want candidates to spend time talking about. For each of the following issues, please tell me if this is something you want candidates to spend a lot of time talking about or not. Just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)

YesNoNot Sure

A.Terrorist groups like ISIS, sometimes called the Islamic State9091

B.International trade8119-

C.Immigration8515-

D.Income inequality36621

E.The cost of college5050-

F.Abortion4851-

G.The budget deficit946-

H.The nations infrastructure78221

I.Job creation86141

J.Their religious beliefs42581

K.Climate change1882-

L.National defense937-

M.The Iraq war6337-

N.Breaking gridlock in D.C.68301

O.Taxes919-

P.Energy7624-

Q.Same-sex marriage 38601

R.Race relations 42571

S.Criminal justice reform56431

T.Guns 57421

Now, Im going to mention some people talked about as possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president.For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)

FavUnfVeryFavorableMostlyFavorableMostlyUnfavorableVeryUnfavorableNotSure

A.Jeb Bush, former governor of FloridaMay-1543451132271813

Jan-1546431729251811

Oct-14502894119922

B.Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from MarylandMay-155615243210529

Jan-15501228229338

Oct-1441824174451

C.Chris Christie, governor of New JerseyMay-1528*58621391914

Jan-153654729322210

Oct-143945831291616

D.Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from TexasMay-155920203913721

Jan-155821223614721

Oct-145218203211730

E.Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and candidate for the U.S. Senate in CaliforniaMay-1541*19*132712840

Jan-15151941113666

F.Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South CarolinaMay-1522*38419231540

G.Mike Huckabee, former governor of ArkansasMay-15613021402199

Jan-15662828382176

Oct-145930233623711

H.Bobby Jindal, governor of LouisianaMay-154319152815438

Jan-153920102915541

Oct-144114122911345

I.John Kasich, governor of OhioMay-152516*71811459

Jan-15221471510464

Oct-141773145276

J.George Pataki, former governor of New YorkMay-15103519221355

K.Rand Paul, U.S. senator from KentuckyMay-1555341639241011

Jan-156425253918711

Oct-145924213818617

L.Rick Perry, former governor of TexasMay-155929144521813

Jan-156426204420610

Oct-146423234117613

M.Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from FloridaMay-156017204012523

Jan-155720164115523

Oct-145416144012430

N.Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from PennsylvaniaMay-155628183819916

Jan-155730164122813

Oct-1452301438201018

O.Donald Trump, businessman and television personalityMay-152763*720313310

Jan-15266842236326

P.Scott Walker, governor of WisconsinMay-15661131355623

Jan-15601232286628

Oct-14491020297341

*We are most confident that the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

FirstSecondCombined

Jeb Bush9716

Ben Carson10515

Chris Christie448

Ted Cruz5813

Carly Fiorina235

Lindsey Graham112*

Mike Huckabee9817*

Bobby Jindal145

John Kasich213

George Pataki-11

Rand Paul10515

Rick Perry369

Marco Rubio61218

Rick Santorum6612

Donald Trump426

Scott Walker171027

Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent says the word uncommitted.)42

Not sure75

No first choicen/a11

*Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.

See next page for tracking.

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

FirstSecondCombined

Jeb BushMay-159716

Jan-158715

Oct-144812

Ben CarsonMay-1510515

Jan-1591019

Oct-1411718

Chris ChristieMay-15448

Jan-15437

Oct-146511

Ted CruzMay-155813

Jan-155611

Oct-147613

Carly FiorinaMay-15235

Jan-15112

Lindsey GrahamMay-15112*

Mike HuckabeeMay-159817*

Jan-1510717

Oct-149817

Bobby JindalMay-15145

Jan-15224

Oct-14145

John KasichMay-15213

Jan-15112

Oct-141-1

George PatakiMay-15-11

Rand PaulMay-1510515

Jan-1514923

Oct-1410818

Rick PerryMay-15369

Jan-15358

Oct-147613

Marco RubioMay-1561218

Jan-153811

Oct-14235

Rick SantorumMay-156612

Jan-154610

Oct-14358

Donald TrumpMay-15426

Jan-15112

Scott WalkerMay-15171027

Jan-15151025

Oct-14459

Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent says the word uncommitted.)May-1542

Jan-1521

Oct-141-

Not sureMay-1575

Jan-1556

Oct-14

No first choiceMay-15n/a11

Jan-15n/a7

Oct-14n/a10

*Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.

(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered in as first or second in horserace.] Im going to mention the candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)

EverNeverNot sure1st or 2nd choice in horserace

A.Jeb Bush38351016

B.Ben Carson47182015

C.Chris Christie3445138

D.Ted Cruz49211813

E.Carly Fiorina3827305

F.Lindsey Graham2943253

G.Mike Huckabee5124916

H.Bobby Jindal4525255

I.John Kasich2928403

J.George Pataki2041381

K.Rand Paul45301015

L.Rick Perry5427109

M.Marco Rubio49181518

N.Rick Santorum51261112

O.Donald Trump285886

P.Scott Walker41151727

For each of the following descriptions of Carly Fiorina, please tell me if this is something that is important to you as you decide whether to support her or not. Just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)

ImportantNot importantNot Sure

A.She has been the CEO of a Fortune 500 company, Hewlett-Packard65332

B.She is a Washington outsider59383

C.As CEO, she outsourced American jobs overseas48493

D.She is the only woman in the Republican field26713

E.She has never held elected office39592

F.She has taken on Hillary Clinton aggressively72262

G.As CEO, she laid off 30,000 employees 44524

H.She was fired by Hewlett-Packard 27703

Im going to mention issue positions some Republican candidates hold. For each, please tell me if you think this position is about right or goes too far. (Rotate list.)

About rightGoes too farNot Sure

A.The border with Mexico must be 100% secure before any legislation on immigration reform can be considered69293

B.Life begins at conception, therefore fetuses have all the same rights as persons74224

C.The U.S. must have the indisputably strongest military, therefore the Pentagon budget should be increased73243

D.Subsidies are a waste of government moneyincluding past subsidies for ethanol and wind energy45469

E.The Environmental Protection Agency infringes on the rights of landowners, therefore it should be shut down 44515

F.Marriage should be only between one man and one woman, therefore marriage equality laws should be struck down60355

G.Religious freedom is so important, it takes precedence over any law that is seen as interfering with it57368

H.Clergy should be free to take political positions from the pulpit without risking the tax-exempt status of the church61336

I.Whether or not climate change is real, the U.S. should not spend money foolishly trying to reduce greenhouse gases66313

J.Obamacare should be repealed 79192

K.The Common Core puts too much control of education in the hands of the federal government; it should be rejected74206

L.Protecting Americans from terrorism is more important than protecting Americans privacy 49429

If Jeb Bush were to become president, a close adviser is likely to be his brother George W. Bush. If that proved true, do you think it would be mostly good for his presidency or mostly bad for his presidency?

57Mostly good

33Mostly bad

2No difference (VOL)

8Not sure

Critics say President Obama was a first-term senator with no executive experience before he took office, and that explains many of the problems he has faced. Im going to mention Republican candidates who are first-term senators who have no executive experience. For each, tell me if that makes you less likely to support any of them in the nominating race or if it makes no difference in your support. (Rotate list.)

Less likely to supportNo differenceNot sure

A.Ted Cruz19765

B.Rand Paul22725

C.Marco Rubio16795