ipga pulses conclave€¦ · know your india covers population of 1. 22 billion and area of 3.28...

INDIA

PULSES SUPPLY & DEMAND

OUTLOOK

Presented by

Sudhakar TOMAR Managing Director

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 1

IPGA PULSES CONCLAVE 19th – 21st February, 2014, Goa , India

Area of Interest


http://www.atlapedia.com/online/map_index_phy.htm

India’s Growing Food Needs (1991 = 100)

Courtesy - www.statpub.com

As average age

and incomes rise

food needs will

grow

Know your INDIA Covers population of 1. 22 Billion and area of 3.28

million sq km roughly the size of 1/3rd of Canada

Economy 4.7 Trillion ( 3rd by PPP)

18% of world’s population ( > 60% under 30 )

2 % of world’s land (60% agricultural /30% irrigated)

less than 3.5% of world renewable fresh water (Canada

has 7% )

Average per capita income : US$ 3851.00 (140th by PPP)

Food Import bill US$ 25 Billion ( 5% of total imports)

Employs >60% of work force in small scale agriculture



India – The fight between Nutrition Vs Calories

Know your INDIA Pulses area : 25-27 Million Hectares – 87% Rainfed with average

annual rainfall of 1000 mm ( almost double of AAP of

Saskatchewan)

Two Crop Cycles

Rabi ( Winter Crop) – Harvesting - March/April ( 65%)

Major Crops – Chickpea , Lentil , Pea

Major Growers – M.P (33 %) UP (19% ) , AP (11%) (

Maharashtra ( 9%)

Kharif (Monsoon Season) – Harvesting Sept /October ( 35%)

Major Crops : Mung Beans ,Pigeon Peas ,Black Matpe

Major Growers : Maharashtra (24%) Rajsthan (15%),

UP(13%) , MP (10%)


Global Pulses Calendar

7

Pulses growing regions in India

Pulses value chain

How does India consume Pulses ?


How does India consume Pulses ? Versatile

Flour –Purees – Sauces – Salted & Sweet Snacks – Drinks – Breads – Cakes

Extremely Versatile & Diversified usage : 11000 + Dishes

Google search yields >2.2 Million results


From CANADA to KOLKATA


Area – Yields - Production


Pulses | Imports in first 9 months of 2013-14 season ( 000 MTs)

Pulses – Second Advance Estimate –

Released on Valentines Day 14/02/2014

INDIA – Supply & Demand

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 18 Source : Stat Publishing Canada

The great Indian Pulses Matrix

Pulses / India Sudhakar Tomar 19 India is the largest exporter of Kabuli Chickpeas @ 175,000 MTs

The ever Devaluing Indian Rupee ( INR)


AU$

30%

CA$

18%

Pulses | How much is too much ?

* The Great Indian Pulses Plan *

To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030


Masters of the game Indian Institute of Agricultural Research (ICAR)

Indian Institute of Pulses Research (IIPR)

All India Coordinated Research Projects (AICRPs) on Chickpeas,

Pigeonpeas, Lentils & Beans

How will they do it ? Crop Development Schemes

National Food Security Mission - Pulses (NFSM-Pulses),

Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) - National Agri Development Scheme

Macro Management of Agriculture (MMA),

Integrated Scheme of Oilseeds, Pulses, Oil Palm & Maize (ISOPOM)

‘Accelerated Pulses Production Program (A3P)’

2013-2014 Legume Cultivation Scheme for Gram Mono Crop Areas ( Budget

2013-2014 US$ 60 Million)

India – Projected Pulse requirements 2012-

2030


* The Great Indian Pulses Plan *

To grow 32 Million MTs in 2030


How really ?

Quote…To meet the projected requirement for 1.68 Billion Indians the

productivity needs to uplift at 1361 kg per ha and about 3.million ha additional

area has to be brought under pulses besides reducing the post-harvest

losses.Unquote

1. Increasing government procurement

prices ( MSP) in reality

2. Bringing additional 3-5 Million Hectares

under Pulses cultivation

3. Improving yield from 700 Kg/Ha to 1361

Kg/Ha ………


Estimating Supply & Demand Pulses in India

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How do we estimate

Supply & Demand

numbers for Pulses in

India

Domestic Retail Prices (Jan 2013-2014)


Price Outlook


Emerging Trends

1. Farmers – globally- will not grow pulses unless they can make as much or more money than growing other crops –Battle for Acres will keep prices volatile

2. South Asian consumers will not buy more pulses unless they are as cheap or cheaper than other foods (or they become Fashionable / Desirable)

As a result, all crops will follow same price pattern

3. Developing countries will improve average yields & reduce losses at farm and in logistics & storage chain

31

Emerging Trends 2

5. Changing ownership………. Glencore + Viterra + ABB

Cargill + AWB

AGT + Australian Milling Group + various

Legumex-Walker and so on

Archer Daniels Midland $2.3 billion bid for Graincorp

6. Global supply chain getting shorter

( Example : India - 18 Large Exporters to India run their own Origination & Distribution in India )

7. Intense Competition for market share

32

Emerging Trends 3

7. New Competitors…….

Ukraine, Russia other CIS countries

Emergence of North and East Africa (Ethiopia,

Tanzania)

= still emergent – but catching up fast.

8. Changing Markets……

Growing Indian middle class demanding quality

Dramatic changes in China

Health and Nutrition – New Usage of Pulses –

pulses as quality and healthy Ingredient to food

industry seems the new Mantra

= Changed demand patterns 33

AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION


So what is in it for me ? what

AND SPECIAL MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION


Acknowledgements ① CGIAR/ICARDA

② Pulse Canada / Gordon Bacon

③ Commodity India / Foretell

④ USDA

⑤ BRIAN CLANCEY / STATPUB

⑥ FAOSTAT /FAO

⑦ WFP

⑧ CICILS-IPTIC / Gavin Gibson

⑨ The Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Department of Agriculture, Government of

India, New Delhi

⑩ Retail Price Section, Directorate of Economics & Statistics,Ministry of Agriculture Government

of India, New Delhi.

11 P K Joshi, Devesh Roy and P Kumar, K Inbasekar, R Chanda, A Negi, G Tripathi, V Sonkar,

N Datta, B Mishra and P Parthasarty Rao of International Food Policy Research Institute

12 Glencore India / Pravin Dongre / Saurabh Bhartia / Anurag Tulshan / Dharmendra

Vijaywargi / Anand Mandan / Sandip Burman Ray / Shahwar Khan

36

Thank you very much


HAKAN AGRO DMCC 34th Floor , Tower BB2

Mazaya Business Avenue

Jumeirah Lakes Towers

P O Box 31489 Dubai ( UAE)

Email : [email protected] Website : www.hakanfoods.com

ipga pulses conclave€¦ · know your india covers population of 1. 22 billion and area of 3.28...

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