ipsos poll conducted for reuters core political...

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02.03.2016

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Core Political Approval

2

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted

for date

January 30-February 3, 2016

For the survey,

a sample of

1,685 Americans

including

704 Democrats

631 Republicans

222 Independents

18+

ages

w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e

3

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

2.7

for all adults

4.2

Democrats

4.4

Republicans

7.5

Independents

4

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:

─ Gender

─ Age

─ Education

─ Ethnicity

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.

All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.

Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

5

RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

29%

60%

11%

All Adults 48%

38%

14%

Democrats

9%

87%

4%

Republicans

30%

61%

9%

Independents

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Don’t Know

6

BARACK OBAMA Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)

Total Democrat Republican Independent

Strongly approve 22% 41% 5% 14%

Somewhat approve 21% 35% 5% 24%

Lean towards approve 3% 5% 1% 4%

Lean towards disapprove 2% 2% 2% 3%

Somewhat disapprove 13% 9% 14% 17%

Strongly disapprove 34% 6% 70% 33%

Not sure 5% 3% 3% 6%

TOTAL APPROVE 46% 80% 11% 42%

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 49% 17% 87% 53%

7

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=815)

Total (n=815)

Republican (n=568)

Independent (n=187)

Donald Trump 34% 36% 33%

Marco Rubio 12% 14% 9%

Ted Cruz 12% 16% 4%

Benjamin Carson 8% 8% 8%

Jeb Bush 7% 7% 8%

Chris Christie 4% 5% 3%

Rand Paul 3% 2% 5%

John Kasich 3% 3% 4%

Carly Fiorina 2% 2% 1%

Mike Huckabee 2% 2% 2%

Rick Santorum *% *% 1%

Jim Gilmore *% *% 1%

Wouldn’t vote 13% 4% 22%

TOP 3

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

8

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=866)

Total (n=866)

Democrat (n=619)

Independent (n=187)

Hillary Clinton 47% 54% 32%

Bernie Sanders 38% 39% 37%

Martin O’Malley 4% 2% 10%

Wouldn’t vote 11% 5% 21%

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

9

HEAD-TO-HEADS If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,434)

Registered Voters

Ted Cruz (Republican) 34%

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 44% Neither/ Other 12%

Wouldn’t vote 6%

Don’t know/Refused 5%

Donald Trump (Republican) 36%

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 44%

Neither/ Other 9%

Wouldn’t vote 4%



Bernie Sanders (Democrat) 42%

Neither/ Other 9%

Wouldn’t vote 6%




Neither/ Other 11%

Wouldn’t vote 6%


10

HEAD-TO-HEADS If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,434)

Registered Voters



Michael Bloomberg (Independent) 11%

Neither/ Other 7%

Wouldn’t vote 5%


Ted Cruz (Republican) 30% Bernie Sanders (Democrat) 39%


Neither/ Other 7%

Wouldn’t vote 6%





Neither/ Other 7%

Wouldn’t vote 4%





Neither/ Other 6%

Wouldn’t vote 4%


11

Weekly Presidential Approval

48%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan

1-7

, 20

12

Jan

29

-Feb

4, 2

01

2

Feb

19

-25,

201

2

Mar

11-

17

, 20

12

Ap

r 1

-7, 2

01

2

Ap

r 2

2-2

8, 2

012

May

13

-19,

20

12

Jun

3-9

, 201

2

Jun

24-

Jun

30,

201

2

Jul 1

5-2

1, 2

012

Au

g 5

-11,

20

12

Au

g 2

6-Se

pt

1, 2

012

Sep

t 1

6-2

2, 2

012

Oct

7-1

3, 2

012

Oct

28

-No

v 3

, 20

12

No

v 1

8-2

4, 2

012

Dec

9-1

5, 2

012

Jan

1-7

, 20

13

Jan

22

-28

, 20

13

Feb

12

-18,

201

3

Mar

5-M

ar 1

1, 2

013

Mar

26-

Ap

r 1,

201

3

Ap

r 1

6-2

2, 2

013

May

7-1

3, 2

01

3

May

28

-Ju

n 3

, 201

3

Jun

18-

24

, 20

13

Jul 9

-15

, 20

13

Jul 3

0-A

ug

5, 2

01

3

Au

g 2

0-2

6, 2

01

3

Sep

t 1

0-1

6, 2

013

Oct

1-7

, 20

13

Oct

22

-28

, 20

13

No

v 1

2-1

8, 2

013

Dec

3-9

, 20

13

Dec

24

-30

, 20

13

Jan

15

-21

, 20

14

Feb

5-1

1, 2

014

Feb

26

-Mar

4, 2

014

Mar

19-

25

, 20

14

Ap

r 9

-15

, 20

14

Ap

r 3

0-M

ay 6

, 20

14

May

21

-27,

20

14

Jun

11-

17

, 20

14

Jul 2

-8, 2

01

4

Jul 2

3-2

9, 2

014

Au

g 2

0-2

6, 2

01

4

Sep

t 1

0-1

6, 2

014

Oct

8-1

4, 2

014

Oct

29

-No

v 4

, 20

14

Dec

3-9

, 20

14

Jan

1-7

, 20

15

Jan

22

-28

, 20

15

Feb

. 12

-18

, 20

15

Mar

ch 1

2-1

8, 2

015

Ap

ril 2

-8, 2

01

5

Ap

ril 2

3-2

9, 2

01

5

May

21

-27,

20

15

Jun

11-

Ju

n 1

7, 2

015

July

1-J

uly

7, 2

01

5

July

29

-Au

g 4

, 20

15

Au

g 1

9- A

ug

25

, 20

15

Sep

t 1

0-1

6, 2

015

Oct

ob

er 1

-7, 2

01

5

Oct

ob

er 2

2-2

7, 2

01

5

No

vem

ber

11

-17,

201

5

Dec

em

ber

2-8

, 20

15

Dec

em

ber

23

-29

, 201

5

Jan

uar

y 1

5-1

9, 2

01

6

TOTAL - DISAPPROVE

TOTAL – APPROVE

For tracking purposes, approval ratings in the above graphic reflect weekly roll-ups of our tracking data (a 7-day period), rather than the 5-day period reflected throughout this topline document

12

CORE POLITICAL APPROVAL In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=923)

All Adults (n=923) Democratic

Party Republican

Party Independents Other None Don’t know

DEM/REP PARTY DIFF

Healthcare 37% 26% 6% 2% 11% 18% 10%

The war on terror 23% 34% 6% 2% 11% 24% -11%

Iran 20% 29% 6% 2% 14% 30% -9%

The US Economy 26% 31% 7% 2% 13% 21% -5%

Immigration 28% 33% 6% 2% 12% 19% -5%

Social Security 31% 23% 7% 2% 14% 24% 8%

Medicare 37% 22% 6% 2% 11% 22% 15%

Taxes 29% 26% 8% 2% 13% 23% 3%

Gay marriage 41% 13% 8% 3% 10% 25% 28%

Jobs and employment 34% 27% 7% 1% 10% 20% 7%

The federal government deficit 23% 28% 7% 2% 14% 26% -5%

Supporting small businesses 30% 27% 9% 2% 9% 23% 3%

Education 36% 20% 8% 1% 11% 23% 16%

Foreign policy 26% 29% 7% 3% 11% 25% -3%

Women’s rights 43% 17% 6% 2% 10% 22% 26%

The environment 35% 17% 8% 3% 12% 25% 18%

Israel 17% 30% 6% 3% 11% 32% -13%

Syria 18% 26% 6% 4% 13% 34% -8%

Energy policy 31% 23% 8% 2% 10% 27% 8%

TOP

Democrats

Republicans

13

43% 41%

37% 37% 36% 35% 34% 31% 31% 30% 29% 28%

26% 26% 23% 23%

20% 18% 17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=923)

Democratic Party

14


Republican Party

34% 33% 31% 30% 29% 29% 28% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26%

23% 23% 22% 20%

17% 17%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

15

28% 26%

18% 16% 15%

10% 8% 8% 7%

3% 3%

-3% -5% -5% -5% -8% -9%

-11% -13%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


Democratic/Republican Party Difference

Democrat Advantage

Republican Advantage

16

Party Identification All Adults: n= 1,673

16%

21%

7%

6%

15%

13%

14%

5%

3%

43%

35%

14%

8%

Strong Democrat

Moderate Democrat

Lean Democrat

Lean Republican

Moderate Republican

Strong Republican

Independent

None of these

DK

Democrat

Republican

Independent

None/DK

17

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

• The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.e., Y|θ~Bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

• Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

18

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2

Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.

SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS

2,000 2.5

1,500 2.9

1,000 3.5

750 4.1

500 5.0

350 6.0

200 7.9

100 11.2

1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes

(sample sizes) below 100.

ipsos poll conducted for reuters core political...

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