ipsos poll conducted for reuters core political...

© 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

11.25.2015

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Core Political Approval

2

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted

for date

November 21-25, 2015

For the survey,

a sample of

964 Americans

including

362 Democrats

352 Republicans

129 Independents

18+

ages

w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e

3

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

3.6

for all adults

5.9

Democrats

6.0

Republicans

9.8

Independents

4

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:

─ Gender

─ Age

─ Education

─ Ethnicity

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.

All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.

Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

5

RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

24%

64%

12%

All Adults 43%

41%

15%

Democrats

8%

89%

2%

Republicans

19%

67%

14%

Independents

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Don’t Know

6

BARACK OBAMA Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)

Total Democrat Republican Independent

Strongly approve 22% 43% 7% 7%

Somewhat approve 18% 32% 5% 17%

Lean towards approve 2% 3% % 1%

Lean towards disapprove 3% 2% 2% 4%

Somewhat disapprove 15% 9% 18% 21%

Strongly disapprove 35% 8% 67% 43%

Not sure 6% 4% 1% 6%

TOTAL APPROVE 42% 77% 13% 26%

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 53% 19% 87% 69%

7

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?

Total (n=602)

Republican (n=352)

Independent (n=129)

Donald Trump 31% 37% 31%

Benjamin Carson 7% 9% 7%

Jeb Bush 7% 6% 13%

Ted Cruz 7% 11% 2%

Marco Rubio 6% 10% 1%

Carly Fiorina 3% 3% 7%

Chris Christie 3% 4% 5%

Rand Paul 2% 2% 3%

Mike Huckabee 2% 3% 3%

John Kasich 2% 3% 2%

Jim Gilmore 2% 3% *%

Rick Santorum *% *% *%

Lindsey Graham *% *% *%

George Pataki 1% 2% *%

Wouldn’t vote 25% 6% 26%

TOP 3

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

8

Regardless of your personal preference, if the Republican Presidential Primaries came down to these candidates, for whom would you vote?

Total (n=602)

Republican (n=352)

Independent (n=129)

Donald Trump 39% 46% 39%

Benjamin Carson 19% 24% 17%

Marco Rubio 16% 25% 11%


TOP

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

9

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?

Total (n=612)

Democrat (n=362)

Independent (n=129)

Hillary Clinton 46% 58% 42%

Bernie Sanders 26% 30% 22%

Martin O’Malley 5% 6% 7%


DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

10

Weekly Presidential Approval

41%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan

1-7

, 20

12

Jan

15

-21

, 20

12Fe

b 5

-11

, 20

12Fe

b 1

9-2

5, 2

012

Mar

4-M

ar 1

0, 2

012

Mar

18-

24

, 20

12

Ap

r 1

-7, 2

01

2A

pr

15

-21

, 20

12A

pr

29

-May

5, 2

01

2M

ay 1

3-1

9, 2

01

2M

ay 2

7-J

un

2, 2

012

Jun

10-

16

, 20

12

Jun

24-

Jun

30,

201

2Ju

l 8-1

4, 2

012

Jul 2

2-2

8, 2

012

Au

g 5

-11,

20

12

Au

g 1

9-2

5, 2

01

2Se

pt

2-8

, 20

12Se

pt

16-

22

, 20

12Se

pt

30

-Oct

6, 2

012

Oct

14

-20

, 20

12O

ct 2

8-N

ov

3, 2

01

2N

ov

11

-17

, 201

2N

ov

25

-Dec

1, 2

012

Dec

9-1

5, 2

012

Dec

23

-29

, 20

12Ja

n 8

-14

, 20

13Ja

n 2

2-2

8, 2

013

Feb

5-1

1, 2

013

Feb

19

-25,

201

3M

ar 5

-Mar

11

, 20

13M

ar 1

9-2

5, 2

01

3A

pr

2-8

, 20

13

Ap

r 1

6-2

2, 2

013

Ap

r 3

0-M

ay 6

, 20

13

May

14

-20,

20

13

May

28

-Ju

n 3

, 201

3Ju

n 1

1-1

7, 2

01

3Ju

n 2

5-Ju

l 1, 2

013

Jul 9

-15

, 20

13Ju

l 23-

29,

201

3A

ug

6-1

2, 2

01

3A

ug

20

-26

, 20

13

Sep

t 3

-9, 2

013

Sep

t 1

7-2

3, 2

013

Oct

1-7

, 20

13

Oct

15

-21

, 20

13O

ct 2

9-N

ov

4, 2

01

3N

ov

12

-18

, 201

3N

ov

26

-Dec

2, 2

013

Dec

10

-16

, 20

13D

ec 2

4-3

0, 2

013

Jan

8-1

4, 2

014

Jan

22

-28

, 20

14Fe

b 5

-11

, 20

14Fe

b 1

9-2

5, 2

014

Mar

5-M

ar 1

1, 2

014

Mar

19-

25

, 20

14

Ap

r 2

-8, 2

01

4A

pr

16

-22

, 20

14A

pr

30

-May

6, 2

01

4M

ay 1

4-2

0, 2

01

4M

ay 2

8-J

un

3, 2

014

Jun

11-

17

, 20

14

Jun

25-

Jul 1

, 20

14Ju

l 9-1

5, 2

014

Jul 2

3-2

9, 2

014

Au

g 1

3-1

9, 2

01

4A

ug

27-

Sep

t 2

, 20

14Se

pt

10-

16

, 20

14O

ct 1

-7, 2

01

4O

ct 1

5-2

1, 2

014

Oct

29

-No

v 4

, 20

14

No

v 2

6-D

ec 1

, 201

4D

ec 1

0-1

6, 2

014

Jan

1-7

, 20

15

Jan

15

-21

, 20

15Ja

n 2

9-F

eb 4

, 20

15

Feb

. 12

-18

, 20

15

Mar

ch 5

-11,

201

5M

arch

19

-25,

201

5A

pri

l 2-8

, 20

15

Ap

ril 1

6-2

2, 2

01

5A

pri

l 30

-May

6, 2

01

5M

ay 2

1-2

7, 2

01

5Ju

n 4

- Ju

n 1

0, 2

01

5Ju

n 1

8- J

un

24,

201

5Ju

ly 1

-Ju

ly 7

, 20

15

July

22

- Ju

ly 2

8, 2

01

5A

ug

5-

Au

g 1

1, 2

015

Au

g 1

9- A

ug

25

, 20

15Se

pt

3-9

, 20

15Se

pt

17-

23

, 20

15O

cto

ber

1-7

, 20

15

Oct

ob

er 1

5-2

1, 2

01

5O

cto

ber

28

-No

v 3

, 20

15N

ove

mb

er 1

1-1

7, 2

015

TOTAL - DISAPPROVE

TOTAL – APPROVE

For tracking purposes, approval ratings in the above graphic reflect weekly roll-ups of our tracking data (a 7-day period), rather than the 5-day period reflected throughout this topline document

11

CORE POLITICAL APPROVAL In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=873)

All Adults (n=873) Democratic

Party Republican

Party Independents Other None Don’t know

DEM/REP PARTY DIFF

Healthcare 29% 27% 7% 2% 12% 23% 2%

The war on terror 19% 32% 5% 2% 15% 27% -13%

Iran 17% 29% 5% 3% 15% 32% -12%

The US Economy 23% 30% 8% 1% 11% 26% -7%

Immigration 23% 32% 7% 2% 12% 24% -9%

Social Security 28% 22% 7% 2% 14% 27% 6%

Medicare 28% 24% 6% 2% 14% 25% 4%

Taxes 24% 29% 7% 2% 13% 24% -4%

Gay marriage 30% 22% 7% 2% 12% 27% 8%

Jobs and employment 27% 29% 6% 2% 11% 24% -2%

The federal government deficit 19% 28% 7% 2% 18% 27% -8%

Supporting small businesses 25% 27% 9% 2% 10% 27% -2%

Education 27% 22% 8% 1% 14% 27% 5%

Foreign policy 21% 30% 7% 2% 11% 28% -9%

Women’s rights 36% 19% 8% 2% 10% 26% 17%

The environment 34% 19% 7% 3% 11% 26% 15%

Israel 16% 29% 6% 2% 15% 32% -13%

Syria 16% 26% 6% 2% 16% 34% -10%

Energy policy 27% 25% 6% 1% 11% 30% 2%

TOP

Democrats

Republicans

12

36% 34%

30% 29% 28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 25% 24% 23% 23%

21% 19% 19%

17% 16% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=873)

Democratic Party

13


Republican Party

32% 32% 30% 30% 29% 29% 29% 29% 28% 27% 27% 26% 25% 24%

22% 22% 22% 19% 19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

14

17% 15%

8% 6% 5% 4%

2% 2%

-2% -2% -4%

-7% -8% -9% -9% -10%

-12% -13% -13% -15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%


Democratic/Republican Party Difference

Democrat Advantage

Republican Advantage

15

Party Identification All Adults: n= 964

15%

19%

5%

9%

13%

10%

15%

9%

5%

39%

32%

15%

14%

Strong Democrat

Moderate Democrat

Lean Democrat

Lean Republican

Moderate Republican

Strong Republican

Independent

None of these

DK

Democrat

Republican

Independent

None/DK

16

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

• The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.e., Y|θ~Bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

• Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

17

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2

Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.

SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS

2,000 2.5

1,500 2.9

1,000 3.5

750 4.1

500 5.0

350 6.0

200 7.9

100 11.2

1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes

(sample sizes) below 100.

ipsos poll conducted for reuters core political...

Documents