ipsos poll conducted for reuters core political data · the precision of the reuters/ipsos online...

© 2016 Ipsos 1

Core Political Data08.10.2016

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

© 2016 Ipsos 2

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted

for date

August 6-August 10, 2016

For the survey,

a sample of

1,459Americans

including

680Democrats

468Republicans

175Independents

18+

ages

w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e

Core Political DataIPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS

© 2016 Ipsos 3

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.

In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

2.9

for all adults

4.3

Democrats

5.2

Republicans

8.4

Independents


© 2016 Ipsos 4

• The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:

– Gender

– Age

– Education

– Ethnicity

• Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.

• All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

• Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.

• Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

• To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit: http://polling.reuters.com/


© 2016 Ipsos 5

Right Direction/Wrong TrackALL ADULT AMERICANS

24%

62%

14%

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Don’t Know

All Adults41%

41%

18% 10%

85%

5% 11%

77%

13%

Democrats Republicans Independents

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

© 2016 Ipsos 6

Main Problem Facing AmericaALL ADULT AMERICANS

Total Democrat Republican Independent

Economy generally 18% 19% 19% 20%

Unemployment / lack of jobs 8% 9% 7% 12%

War / foreign conflicts 4% 5% 2% 5%

Immigration 5% 3% 9% 5%

Terrorism / terrorist attacks 20% 17% 23% 22%

Healthcare 9% 10% 7% 14%

Energy issues 1% 1% 1% 0%

Morality 8% 5% 15% 7%

Education 5% 7% 3% 3%

Crime 6% 8% 4% 4%

Environment 3% 6% 1% 2%

Don’t know 5% 3% 2% 1%

Other 7% 7% 7% 6%

In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?

© 2016 Ipsos 7

Main Problem Facing AmericaALL ADULT AMERICANS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Economy Generally

Unemployment / jobs

Healthcare

Terrorism

Immigration

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

© 2016 Ipsos 8

Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)

Total Democrat Republican Independent

Strongly approve 28% 51% 4% 17%

Somewhat approve 19% 30% 5% 15%

Lean towards approve 3% 4% 1% 4%

Lean towards disapprove 2% 1% 2% 7%

Somewhat disapprove 11% 7% 15% 17%

Strongly disapprove 32% 7% 71% 33%

Not sure 5% 1% 3% 7%

TOTAL APPROVE 50% 84% 10% 36%

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 45% 14% 87% 57%

Barack ObamaALL ADULT AMERICANS

© 2016 Ipsos 9

Weekly ApprovalALL ADULT AMERICANS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

JAN

1-7

, 20

12

JAN

22

-28

, 20

12

FEB

12

-18

, 20

12

MA

R 4

-MA

R 1

0, 2

01

2M

AR

25

-31

, 20

12

AP

R 1

5-2

1, 2

01

2M

AY

6-1

2, 2

01

2M

AY

27

-JU

N 2

, 20

12

JUN

17

-23

, 20

12

JUL

8-1

4, 2

01

2JU

L 2

9-A

UG

4, 2

01

2A

UG

19

-25

, 20

12

SEP

T 1

0-1

5, 2

01

2SE

PT

30

-OC

T 6

, 20

12

OC

T 2

1-2

7,

20

12

NO

V 1

1-1

7, 2

01

2D

EC 2

-8, 2

01

2D

EC 2

3-2

9, 2

01

2JA

N 8

-14

, 20

13

JAN

29

-FEB

4, 2

01

3FE

B 1

9-2

5, 2

01

3M

AR

12

-18

, 20

13

AP

R 2

-8, 2

01

3A

PR

23

-29

, 20

13

MA

Y 1

4-2

0, 2

01

3JU

N 4

-10

, 20

13

JUN

25

-JU

L 1

, 20

13

JUL

16

-22

, 20

13

AU

G 6

-12

, 20

13

AU

G 2

7-S

EPT

2, 2

01

3SE

PT

17

-23

, 20

13

OC

T 8

-14

, 20

13

OC

T 2

9-N

OV

4, 2

01

3N

OV

19

-25

, 20

13

DEC

10

-16

, 20

13

DEC

EMB

ER 3

1, 2

01

3JA

N 1

5-2

1, 2

01

4FE

B 5

-11

, 2

01

4FE

B 2

6-M

AR

4, 2

01

4M

AR

19

-25

, 20

14

AP

R 9

-15

, 20

14

AP

R 3

0-M

AY

6, 2

01

4M

AY

21

-27

, 20

14

JUN

11

-17

, 20

14

JUL

2-8

, 20

14

JUL

23

-29

, 20

14

AU

G 1

3-1

9, 2

01

4SE

PT

3-9

, 20

14

SEP

T 2

4-3

0, 2

01

4O

CT

15

-21

, 2

01

4N

OV

5-1

1, 2

01

4N

OV

26

-DEC

1, 2

01

4D

EC 1

7-2

3, 2

01

4JA

N 8

-14

, 20

15

JAN

29

-FEB

4, 2

01

5FE

B. 1

9-2

5, 2

01

5M

AR

CH

12

-18

, 20

15

AP

RIL

2-8

, 20

15

AP

RIL

23

-29

, 20

15

MA

Y 2

1-2

7, 2

01

5JU

N 1

1-

JUN

17

, 20

15

JULY

1-J

ULY

7, 2

01

5JU

LY 2

2-

JULY

28

, 20

15

AU

G 1

2-

AU

G 1

8, 2

01

5SE

PT

3-9

, 20

15

SEP

T 2

4-3

0, 2

01

5O

CTO

BER

15

-21

, 20

15

NO

VEM

BER

4-1

0, 2

01

5N

OV

EMB

ER 2

5-…

DEC

EMB

ER 1

6-2

2, 2

01

5JA

UN

AR

Y 6-

12

, 20

16

JAN

UA

RY

29

-FEB

RU

AR

Y …FE

BR

UA

RY

20

-24

, 20

16

MA

RC

H 1

1-1

5, 2

01

6A

PR

IL 2

-AP

RIL

6, 2

01

6A

PR

IL 2

2-2

6, 2

01

6M

AY

13

-17

, 20

16

JUN

E 4

-8, 2

01

6JU

NE

25

-29

, 20

16

JULY

16

-20

, 20

16

AU

G 6

-AU

G 1

0, 2

01

6

50%

Total Approve

Total Disapprove

45%

* Starting June 1st, 2016, this slide will reflect data from the same five-day field period as the rest of this report. Previously, this chart was based off of a seven-day roll-up.

© 2016 Ipsos 10

Trump / Clinton Head-to-HeadLIKELY VOTERS / REGISTERED VOTERS

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,248 and likely voters, n=974)

RegisteredVoters (RV)

Democrats (RV)

Republicans(RV)

Independents(RV)

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 44% 78% 6% 20%

Donald Trump (Republican) 32% 5% 76% 27%

Other 11% 8% 9% 28%

Wouldn’t Vote 5% 3% 5% 13%

Don’t know / Refused 8% 6% 5% 12%

Likely Voters (LV)

Democrats (LV)

Republicans(LV)

Independents(LV)



Other 10% 7% 8% 34%



© 2016 Ipsos 11

Four-Way Ballot Head-to-HeadLIKELY VOTERS / REGISTERED VOTERS

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,248 and likely voters, n=974)

Likely Voters (LV)

Democrats (LV)

Republicans(LV)

Independents(LV)



Gary Johnson (Libertarian) 7% 4% 7% 22%

Jill Stein (Green) 3% 2% 1% 9%

Other 4% 4% 2% 10%




Democrats (RV)

Republicans(RV)

Independents(RV)



Gary Johnson (Libertarian) 8% 5% 8% 24%

Jill Stein (Green) 3% 4% 1% 7%

Other 4% 3% 2% 7%



© 2016 Ipsos 12

General Election Candidate FavorabilityREGISTERED VOTERS

Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures?(Data Collected in 2016)

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1/6

/16

1/1

3/1

6

1/2

0/1

6

1/2

7/1

6

2/3

/16

2/1

0/1

6

2/1

7/1

6

2/2

4/1

6

3/2

/16

3/9

/16

3/1

6/1

6

3/2

3/1

6

3/3

0/1

6

4/6

/16

4/1

3/1

6

4/2

0/1

6

4/2

7/1

6

5/4

/16

5/1

1/1

6

5/1

8/1

6

5/2

5/1

6

6/1

/16

6/8

/16

6/1

5/1

6

6/2

2/1

6

6/2

9/1

6

7/6

/16

7/1

3/1

6

7/2

0/1

6

7/2

7/1

6

8/3

/16

8/1

0/1

6

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1/6

/16

1/1

3/1

6

1/2

0/1

6

1/2

7/1

6

2/3

/16

2/1

0/1

6

2/1

7/1

6

2/2

4/1

6

3/2

/16

3/9

/16

3/1

6/1

6

3/2

3/1

6

3/3

0/1

6

4/6

/16

4/1

3/1

6

4/2

0/1

6

4/2

7/1

6

5/4

/16

5/1

1/1

6

5/1

8/1

6

5/2

5/1

6

6/1

/16

6/8

/16

6/1

5/1

6

6/2

2/1

6

6/2

9/1

6

7/6

/16

7/1

3/1

6

7/2

0/1

6

7/2

7/1

6

8/3

/16

8/1

0/1

6

38% Favorable

62% Unfavorable

DONALD TRUMP

HILLARY CLINTON

50% Favorable50% Unfavorable

© 2016 Ipsos 13

Congressional Head-to-HeadREGISTERED VOTERS

In 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in your district where you live?(Asked of registered voters, n=1,248 and likely voters, n=974)

Likely Voters (LV)


Democrats (RV)

Republicans(RV)

Independents(RV)

Democratic Candidate 41% 44% 78% 6% 18%

Republican Candidate 35% 31% 5% 81% 20%

Candidate from Another Party

4% 5% 3% 3% 17%

Will not/do not plan to vote 3% 3% 2% 1% 8%

Don’t know / Refused 17% 16% 12% 9% 36%

© 2016 Ipsos 14

All Adults: n= 1,459

Political Identity

16%

22%

8%

6%

14%

10%

12%

8%

3%

46%

30%

12%

11%

Strong Democrat

Moderate Democrat

Lean Democrat

Lean Republican

Moderate Republican

Strong Republican

Independent

None of these

DK

Democrat

Republican

Independent

None/DK

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

© 2016 Ipsos 15

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility IntervalsAPPENDIX

The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.

The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

© 2016 Ipsos 16

FOR THIS POLL

The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2

Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility IntervalsAPPENDIX

SAMPLE SIZECREDIBILITY INTERVALS

2,000 2.5

1,500 2.9

1,000 3.5

750 4.1

500 5.0

350 6.0

200 7.9

100 11.2

1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 20032 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes

(sample sizes) below 100.

© 2016 Ipsos 17

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ipsos poll conducted for reuters core political data · the precision of the reuters/ipsos online...

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