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IPv6 impact study Global IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico

IPv6 impact study

Global IPv6 Summit 2007Guadalajara - Mexico

15-17 November 2007

Fabrice Clari, [email protected]

IPv6 impact studyGlobal IPv6 Summit 2007 - 15-17 November 207 - Guadalajara, Mexico

European Policy actions

2002 Communication from the Commission "Next Generation Internet – priorities for

action in migrating to the new Internet protocol IPv6“

2002-now Projects support (€90 millions)

2006 Public consultation: “Hurdle and triggers deployment of IPv6 technology”

Meeting with the Defense market stakeholders Meeting with the Media and Telecom stakeholders International conference on “Convergence: new opportunities to accelerate the

IPv6 momentum” – Vienna

IPv6 global summit – Cannes Launch of a study: “Impact of IPv6 over vertical sectors”

This presentation doesnot represent an

official presentation fromthe European Commission


Methodology

Sector-based approach (15)

Desk research

45+ interviews conducted

Case studies

Expert group involved (IPv6 and sectors

experts)

Web surveys (ISP and users)

Methodology development

Datacollection Analysis Study

report Dissemination

Central Government Education Defence Media/Entertainment: Gaming Media/Entertainment: Television Consumer Tourism Service operators Automotive transportation Collective Transportation Health Buildings Public safety Finance Logistics


Special note

Considerations shown in thispresentation initially target Europe …

...but can be easily extendedto any other region !!!


Extend of the problem (1/2)

World population

Internet usage

Internet services

Available IPv4 addresses

So.... ?IPv6 should

already be widelyused... but is not!

Multiple issues aredriving the non-

adoption of IPv6...


Extend of the problem (2/2)

IPv4: 3.7 billion publicaddresses

Wordwide population is6.5 billion persons

Mainly developingcountries will be impacted

Europe should notbother: RIPNCC hasenough IPv4 addresses toaddress long-termEuropean needs

NOAddresses pool managed at

a global level

IPv4 exhaustion is goingto be a worldwide issue


IPv4 addresses depletion

Until May 2007, diverging estimates betweenexperts for IPv4 address pool shortfall

Agreement since 8 May:

Exhaustion of IANA and RIR IPv4addresses pools forecasted for

2010-2011


Need for a larger address space

NAT is a workaround which works but: NAT breaks the end to end model Increase network management and software dev. costs

Allocation mechanism not clearly understood (e.g. there is no pre-allocation)

Problem drivers (1/2)


Problem drivers (2/2)

Lack of understanding Bad wording for IPv6 integration Most of universities do not teach IPv6 as they should New staff is required for IPv6 integration Everybody is waiting for the IPv6 killer app No identified business model « Never touch a working system » golden rule

Expertise required Integrating IPv6 is not a simple power-on But requires careful planning and staff expertise

Does not solve all the issues of the today Internet


IPv6 impact on vertical sectors

15 sectors analyzed Qualitative and quantitative description of each sector Sector specificities IT applications in the sector Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) to

integrate IPv6 Adoption scenario

Central Government Education Defense Media/Entertainment: Gaming Media/Entertainment: Television Consumer Tourism Service operators

Automotive transportation Collective Transportation Health Buildings Public safety Finance Logistics


Sector: phone and media (1/2) - Overview

Market situation: gigantesque revenues! IP phone market: $300 million (2005) with high growth Gaming global market: $21 billion (2003) with high growth in

mobile and MMORPG IPTV subscribers in Europe : 21 million TV (2010) $5.1 billion

Market trends: new business paradigms Convergence of devices

Handle device: mobile phone + console + PDA + MP3player Smart phones

Living room devices: Audio-video system + console +Internet router + TV decoder + phone setop boxes

Content distribution: anywhere, anytime! Content creation: from everyone to anyone!


Sector: phone and media (2/2) - SWOT

Strengths big market IPv6 more efficient than IPv4 gaming and multimedia (IPTV, Joost-like) applications

Weaknesses no killer application Important application: VoIP - mainly uses IPv4 Intense competition: IPv6 is considered as a cost because of the short

term ROI obligations

Opportunities P2P games creativity enhanced by IPv6

Threats Business model of telecom operators / content providers have to be

reviewed Control over the content could be more complex

Enormous potential but still skeptical


Sector: defense (1/2) - Overview

Some figures: Defense expenditures = 2% GDP, $193 billion for EU-25 1,875 million employees (25% civil) R&D in ICT = €2.2 billion

Market specificities: Government investments Long system life cycle anticipation Security sensible

IPv6 oriented policy: USA (DoD) French Army German Army


Sector: defense (2/2) - SWOT

Strengths IPv6 is a enabler to achieve superiority in the cyberspace IPv6 integration will happen in a reasonable period of time IPv6 is perceive as stable industry appears to be ready (regular products are IPv6-capable with no extra

cost)

Weaknesses Lack of experts Defense sector is not big enough to be a driver

Opportunities opportunities to re-design in a more optimal way opportunity to go directly to the next generation some EU member states have plans for IPv6 integration

Threats procurement is the main instrument potential unforeseen cost detected later

Planned transition in a limited market


Sector: education (1/2) - Overview

Sector specificities: Administrative processes 93 million students in Europe ICT penetration very low in some segments (depends on the country

and on the type of schools) Projects at a global level (Asia-Africa-America-Europe)

Different roles: ICT consumer ICT developer ICT educator

IPv6 policy: Depends on the ICT manager Few universities or schools are ready in Europe


Sector: education (2/2) - SWOT

Strengths universities are non-profit: experimentations can be done « easily » need IPv6-ready infrastructure to participate in international research

projects

Weaknesses no special funding no interest for most university disciplines

Opportunities universities can enhance cooperation with:

• private sectors• other universities in foreign countries

IPv6 can drive ICT penetration

Threats bad guidance/lack of plan: higher costs and small impact

Important sector at the education level: show good practices


Sector: transportation (1/2) - Overview

Market description: diverse, huge and global Automotive: 300 million cars in Europe Airplanes: passengers & fret Fret: Trucks, ships and rail Global market with strong lobbies

ICT development: Road: Intelligent Transportation System (I.T.S.) Air Traffic Management Tracking and parcel localization E-access everywhere


Sector: transportation (2/2) - SWOT

Strengths Car manufactures are electronics-oriented to differ themselves from

competitors Mobility and large address scope

Weaknesses Time response Infrastructure cost

Opportunities Telematics enforced by European regulations IP convergence and new services

Threats Privacy issues Multimedia services brings new source of distraction to drivers

Large sector but competing proprietary protocols


Sector: buildings (1/2) - Overview

Market description: 3 segments Home segment: appliances, control and limited sensor networks Industry segment: huge sensor networks Tertiary segments: huge sensor networks + applications (voice,

data, video)

Specificities: diverse, huge and long to penetrate Residential segment: cost sensitive and long to penetrate due to

the market structure Long value chain from the R&D to the end-user Long product life cycle (over 10 years for some products)


Sector: buildings (2/2) - SWOT

Strengths Reduce complexity thanks to interoperability

Weaknesses The market does not exist yet Proprietary protocols are more profitable

Opportunities Sustainable development Energy saving activities New competitive techniques (6LowPan) Long product life cycle anticipation

Threats Entrance of new players in this sector New business models to develop

An overestimated market that is finally taking off?


The special case of ISPs

Internet Service Provider

Revenue : bandwidth

Revenue : services

IPv6 to support the transition from bandwidthprovisioning to service provisioning


Cross-sectors SWOT results

Large address space

Easier development

Mobile & multicastfeatures

IPv4 works

Existence ofcompetitive standards

Do not fulfill alltechnical

requirements

Product life cycle forsome sectors

Globalization andstandardization trend

« all over IP »requires a largeraddress scope

Change establishedbusiness models

Change the networkmanagement model

Raise security andprivacy issues

MotivatorsChallenges

Counter arguments


Adoption scenario

IP addresses

Level of confidence

UncertainPlanned Considered

Massive

Important

Limited

Phone & Media(TV, games)

Buildings

Defense

Banking

Transportation

Health & CentralGovernment

Education

Logistics &Public Safety

Tourism

First deployments foreseen by 2010-2012


Potential evolution if nothing is done

Momentum to IPv6 is low End of IPv4 public addressed availability is close

2010 2011 2015+

Demand surge: panic tosafeguard infrastructure

Avoidance ofconsumption: company are

moving to alternate solutions(NAT...)

Effort to delayexhaustion point: update of

the allocation process criteria

Scenario before exhaustiondate

Options to extend IPv4 Internet

Trading of IPv4 addressesspace: IT market distortion and

increase of the digital divide

Maintenance of the IPv4Internet: increase of maintenance

costs and make future IPv6 integrationharder


The only viable solution

Integration of IPv6is the only viable solution…

First IPv6 RFC submitted in 1995

Huge amount of R&D, standardisation,

integration… made up to now

No competing alternative in a short term

…to ensure business continuity !


If Europe is a late IPv6 adopter?

Reasons for acting

Do not miss potential spill-over!Prevent coordination failures!

Technologyspill-over

ICT innovation : 40% of EU labourproductivity growth in the second half 1990s

Innovation in vertical sectors

Marketspill-over

Europe : 20% of world ICT supply WW IT service market: €560 billions

Exploit IPv6 European expertise

Coordinationfailures

IPv6 is a chicken-egg issue. Support EU development policies


Objectives of an EC action

General objectives

Support EC policies• Lisbon agenda• i2010• Single EU information space• etc...

Specificobjectives

Ensure business continuity ofEuropean organisations

Exploit European expertise

Ensure Europeans citizens andorganisations will benefit from

state of the art innovations

Operationalobjectives

Availability of IPv6connectivity

Made IT managersaware of the IPv6

situation

IPv6 integration tobe safe

Pool of trainedpeople

Exploitation ofthe European

expertise


Policy options

3 policy options identified:

Option 1: let the things on their own way

Option 2: coordinate integration

Option 3: law enforcement

Impacts analysis made (Economic / Social / Environmental)


European economic impacts (1/2)

Direct costs of IPv6 integration

Network upgrade on ISPs side Core: Mostly compatible thanks to depreciation renewal cycle Edge: Still to be invested Software upgrades Staff training Installation & testing

Users May keep IPv4 for internal use Get prepared to IPv6

NO CAPEX for non IPv6compliant goods

Dual stack v4/v6 maintenance Shorten the global transitionperiod as much as possible


European economic impacts (2/2)

Economic benefits of IPv6 adoption

Business-continuity ICT solutions: 40% of EU labour productivity growth Europe:20% of ICT World supply

Prevent market distortion

Being a first-mover gives a clear competitive advantage Europe was in good position strong pressure from Japan, Korea, China and USA

Develop new services Services = 2/3 of employment and value creation IT services market = €560 billions WW

Simplify the task of ISP to track and record the Internet connection(mandatory in some countries)


Synthesis of options

Option 1 (do nothing scenario) No real move observed Risk of last minute panic Extra-costs

– Long transition period– Last minute CAPEX

Option 2 (coordinate integration) Large scope of possible actions Avoid forced investments: Still time to get IPv6 within renewal cycle

Option 3 (law enforcement) ~Guaranteed results for connectivity availability Extra-costs

– Early renewals (+285% increase by year)– Administrative overhead for implementation and control


Actions recommendations (1/3)

Ensure common availability of IPv6 connectivity in Europe Make sure ISPs are made aware of the IPv6 situation Monitor progress Support Ripe-NCC in applying IPv6 oriented policies. Encourage good communication campaigns around RIPE-NCC actions, as

has been done by APNIC and ARIN

Encourage use of IPv6 in public procurement making use of financialinstruments such as structural funds.

Ensure all European IT managers are made aware of the IPv6situation Large communications campaign associated with a Communication Implement a ‘road-show’ in ISP and large industries IT services



Ensure IPv6 integration is made secure Support ENISA for monitoring of security issues related to IPv6, in particular

during the integration phase. Ensure the presence of a European alertnetwork.

Support ETSI for maintenance of existing standards and integration ofemerging ones

Ensure existence of a sufficient pool of trained people Available documentation is abundant but often outdated or incomplete.

Create a reliable,, complete, and objective resource directory Encourage universities and schools to incorporate IPv6 in the programs. Set-up training campaigns focused on ‘training the trainers’, making use of the

expertise developed in GEANT2 and the most advanced NREN.



Encourage proper exploitation of European expertise Launch an opportunity detection program with universities and research

institutes to increase the European deal-flow associated with IPv6 opportunities Launch a communication campaign within the financing community Give preference to European vendors in public procurement


Web survey results (1/4)

A web survey has been launched to identify positioning of Internet ServiceProviders (ISPs) and Internet users in respect with IPv6 integration; Main figures are presented in the two next slides.

ISP: services offerISP: geographical coverage



ISP: drivers for IPv6 adoption



ISP: details of IPv6 service offer

Inner circle: ISPs already proposing IPv6 connectivity; Outer circle: ISPs planning to provide IPv6 connectivity.



ISP: deployment plans

ISP: integration status

ISP: reason for non planning



Users: triggers for IPv6 adoption


Conclusions

Shortage of available public addresses is an inevitable result ofthe 4th version of the Internet Protocol

Large majority of analysed sectors

Are actively considering IPv6

Expect to start deployment by 2010-2012 , with IPv6 or otherif no competitive offer available

Europe has an opportunity to be a leader in the field butincreasing international pressure

A set of ‘soft measure’ to support IPv6 integration isrecommended

Immediate consideration of IPv6 integration has to beundertaken as this is the only way to minimize thecosts associated with this activity and to facilitate

the smooth transition of this integration tackling thekey issue of the address shortfall.


v6Proxy.com (1/2)

Zaltana is launching v6proxy.com, a new and free IPv6 adoption toolto enable IPv6 access on web servers only available through IPv4.

PSTN

v6proxy.com

InternetIPv6

IPv6 client

www.mysite.commysite.com is onlyconnected to the

IPv4 Internet

Internet

IPv4

IPv4-only client

v6Proxy.com provides atransparent mechanism to

end-user: the targetedwebsite keeps the samename (FQDN) for IPv4

and IPv6.

DNS records for mysite.com:IN AAAA www 2001:41d0:1:7973::9IN A www 12.23.34.56

v6Proxy.com receives HTTPrequest targeting mysite.com

and proxies them.


v6Proxy.com (2/2)

Available at http://www.v6proxy.com

In beta version until end of November 2007


Thanks!

Thanks for your attention

Gracias :-)

Fabrice Clari, [email protected]

ipv6 impact study - lara€¦ · gaming global market: $21 billion (2003) with high growth in...

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