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Asia’s Global Real Estate Partner www.iqiglobal.com Asia’s Global Real Estate Partner www.iqiglobal.com NEWSLETTER IQI MONTHLY MAY 2020 5 0

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Page 1: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Asia’s Global Real Estate Partnerwww.iqiglobal.com

Asia’s Global Real Estate Partnerwww.iqiglobal.com

NEWSLETTERIQI MONTHLY

M A Y 2 0 2 0

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Page 2: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

For the last few weeks, we have witnessed that equity markets have been under a lot of pressure and investors are looking for opportunities to park funds to preserve their wealth. Equity Markets are going through valuation adjustments and forward prices signalling for further correction. Governments around the world are using expansionary fiscal policy to maintain economic confidence as we navigate through turbulent times.

Outlook May 2020Global Economic

FRAGILE & UNCERTAIN

The oil market will remain in choppy waters moving forward and then it’s going to stabilise in the next 1-2 months once China comes back into the market in full throttle. US shale gas companies will go through bankruptcies as they can’t take the pressure of lower oil prices. Oil prices should stabilise between $30 and $40 per barrel in the next 2 quarters.

Oil MarketChoppy Waters

China is slowly and gradually picking up post-COVID-19 in terms of the economic outlook. GDP should be under 5% in 2020 and then picking up faster in 2021. China will be driving the growth trajectory of the global economy and Asia is the future.

ChinaBack In The Picture

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SHAN SAEEDChief Economist of IQI Global

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more information

Malaysian EconomicOutlook - RECOVERING MODEMalaysian economic outlook stands neutral with the economy picking up after the post lockdown. Demand will be stable and we can draw parallels with China. It would take 2 quarters for the economy to recover and then proceed into the growth model. Malaysia continues to be on the global investors’ radar. GDP outlook for 2020 to be between 1 and 2% and aggregate demand to remain stable.

Ringgit OutlookSTRUCTURAL STABILITY Ringgit to maintain structural stability in the coming quarters and will trade on the fair market range between 4.15 and 4.30 against USD.

Page 4: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Corelogic, Herron Todd White

Lily ChongDirector of IQI WA

+61 415 547 878

IQI WA PTY LTD, Suite G02, 118 Goodwood Parade, Burswood, WA 6100

Contact Us

[email protected]

RESIDENTIALThe trend in housing values remained positive throughout March, with the CoreLogic national hedonic index rising 0.7% over the month.

Although housing values continued to rise, the second half of the month experienced a weakening in the growth trend as confidence slumped and social distancing policies took effect.

The national March reading emerged as the lowest monthly gain since the market lifted in July last year.

Over the month, housing values rose across every capital city apart from Hobart (which declined -0.2%), while over the March quarter, every capital city recorded a rise in housing values.

Sydney had the highest growth over the quarter with values up 3.9%, followed by Melbourne at 2.9% and Canberra at 1.7%.

The lowest quarterly gain was in Darwin and Adelaide, each increasing 0.6%; a similar story occurred across the regional areas of each state with values higher over the month and quarter.

Annual growth rates understate the recent slowdown in momentum but point to an improving market before the onset of COVID-19 (below graph).

Page 5: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Lily ChongDirector of IQI WA

+61 415 547 878

IQI WA PTY LTD, Suite G02, 118 Goodwood Parade, Burswood, WA 6100

Contact Us

[email protected]

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Corelogic, Herron Todd White

Each of the capital city markets was well into an upswing before the onset of COVID-19, except Hobart, which was starting to lose momentum after a long upswing (below graph).

Page 6: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Lily ChongDirector of IQI WA

+61 415 547 878

IQI WA PTY LTD, Suite G02, 118 Goodwood Parade, Burswood, WA 6100

Contact Us

[email protected]

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Corelogic, Herron Todd White

PerthPerth dwelling values were up 0.5% in March.

Dwelling values increased by 0.9% in the quarter.

Perth dwelling values are down by -3.1% in the past year.

Perth dwelling values are now -20.7% below the record high, which was in June 2014.

SydneySydney dwelling values increased by 1.1% in March.

Dwelling values increased by 3.9% in the quarter.

Sydney dwelling values are up by 13.0% in the past year.

Sydney dwelling values are -2.7% below the record high, which was in July 2017.

Page 7: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Lily ChongDirector of IQI WA

+61 415 547 878

IQI WA PTY LTD, Suite G02, 118 Goodwood Parade, Burswood, WA 6100

Contact Us

[email protected]

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Corelogic, Herron Todd White

MelbourneMelbourne dwelling values increased by 0.4% in March.

Dwelling values increased by 2.9% in the quarter.

Melbourne dwelling values are up by 12.0% in the past year.

Melbourne dwelling values are currently at a record high.

BrisbaneBrisbane dwelling values increased by 0.6% in March.

Dwelling values increased 1.6% in the quarter.

Brisbane dwelling values are up by 3.1% in the past year.

Brisbane dwelling values are currently at a record high.

Page 8: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Lily ChongDirector of IQI WA

+61 415 547 878

IQI WA PTY LTD, Suite G02, 118 Goodwood Parade, Burswood, WA 6100

Contact Us

[email protected]

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Corelogic, Herron Todd White

OFFICEAs an overall observation, the Australian office property sector had been a strong performer in 2019 across many major markets.

It’s been able to adapt to the flexibilities needed by tenants while also providing opportunities for attractive returns and reasonable growth prospects.

This month’s submissions look at where the 2020 property market may have headed allowing for the fact that we are currently facing one of the most challenging economic environments in modern history.

PerthThe start of the 2020 calendar year brought some positive news to the Perth office market.

The most recent Property Council of Australia (PCA) figures for the Perth CBD office market indicate the total vacancy rate decreased from 18.4 percent to 17.6 percent in the six months to January 2020.

Nonetheless, the slight reduction in the overall vacancy rate for the Perth CBD can be attributed to steadier tenant demand but also a flight to a quality phenomenon with the level of vacancy in the premium and to lesser extent A-grade buildings being significantly less compared to that shown for B and C grade space.

The second consecutive six-month period, the Perth CBD recorded the highest net absorption result of all capital cities. The latest reduction in overall vacancy marks the sixth consecutive period of decline, fuelling further signs of the start of a recovery in this sector.

Page 9: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Lily ChongDirector of IQI WA

+61 415 547 878

IQI WA PTY LTD, Suite G02, 118 Goodwood Parade, Burswood, WA 6100

Contact Us

[email protected]

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Corelogic, Herron Todd White

Sydney2019 was a strong year for the office market across both the Sydney CBD and metropolitan centres. With rents continuing to climb and vacancy rates at record lows, it is no wonder that values have continued to rise.

The Sydney CBD vacancy rates recorded by the Property Council of Australia (PCA) in January 2020 were 3.9 percent.

Tight vacancy kept rentals at record highs, particularly for prime and A-grade stock, however, agents began reporting softer demand for B through to D grade stock throughout 2019, a trend we expect to continue this year.

MelbourneAccording to the Property Council of Australia’s Office Market Report, Melbourne’s CBD office overall vacancy rate slightly decreased from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent over the six months to 1 January 2020.

This is well below the ten year average of 6.5 percent and Melbourne has retained its number one ranking of the lowest vacancy rate amongst all of Australia’s CBDs.

As detailed in various online research reports, a low vacancy has led to competition for remaining space, driving up net face rents over the past 12 months across all grades.

A large deluge of new office supply is forecast for completion in 2020/21, however, some industry researchers are predicting prime and secondary rents to increase by approximately seven percent and four percent respectively over the next 12 months as this new supply is largely pre-committed and the vacated stock will be withdrawn for refurbishment.

Page 10: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Lily ChongDirector of IQI WA

+61 415 547 878

IQI WA PTY LTD, Suite G02, 118 Goodwood Parade, Burswood, WA 6100

Contact Us

[email protected]

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Corelogic, Herron Todd White

BrisbaneThe CBD and fringe CBD prime and A-grade office markets are expected to outperform other commercial asset classes in 2020. Certainly, office markets are a stronger bet in comparison to the retail property.

It is also possible, however, that leasing activity may be significantly impacted by the massive and immediate shift towards social isolation and working from home in the immediate future.

The other principal impact on commercial property is likely to be a very heightened degree of tenant risk, particularly where tenants are in industries impacted by the Coronavirus. This, in turn, is likely to enhance the marketability of properties with institutional-grade long term tenancies.

Current events aside, recently released Property Council of Australia (PCA) office statistics were largely positive, with the prime CBD vacancy rate plunging to 3.2 percent, the lowest vacancy level since January 2012.

With limited new supply coming onto the market in the next 12 months, this market will remain tight until a new supply is available (likely in 2022).

If these vacancy rates continue to tighten, rental rates will inevitably increase and we may (finally) see a decline in incentives. Yields may firm as leasing risk diminishes and overall capital values will improve as a result.

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Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Toronto Real Estate Board

Yousaf IqbalDirector of IQI Canada

+(1)905 564 2344+(1)905 564 6744+(1)647 669 9222

6705 Tomken Road Unit 226,Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6

Contact Us

RESIDENTIALGreater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,758 condominium apartment rentals through TREB’s MLS® System.

Average condominium apartment rents were up on a year-over-year basis for one-bedroom and two-bedroom units. The average two-bedroom condominium apartment rent was up by 3.4 per cent over the same period to $2,868.

The condominium apartment rental market became progressively better supplied throughout 2020, as annual growth, the number of units listed for rent outstripped growth in rental transactions.

COMMERCIALTREB Commercial Network Members reported 6,193,176 square feet of leased space in for all lease transaction types across the industrial, commercial/retail and office market segments.

The average commercial/retail rate was down to $21.35 from $24.66.

It is important to note that annual changes in average lease rates can be a result of changing market conditions and changes in the mix of properties leased from one year to the next, in terms of location, size, mix and other related variables.

Page 12: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Toronto Real Estate Board

Yousaf IqbalDirector of IQI Canada

+(1)905 564 2344+(1)905 564 6744+(1)647 669 9222

6705 Tomken Road Unit 226,Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6

Contact Us

RETAILGreater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,012 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in March 2020 – up by 12.3 per cent compared to 7,132 sales reported in March 2019.

However, despite a strong increase in sales for March 2020 as a whole, there was a clear break in market activity between the pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 periods. For this release, the start of the post-COVID-19 period was the week beginning Sunday, March 15.

There were 3,369 sales reported during the post-COVID-period – down by 15.9 per cent compared to the same period in March 2019. For March as a whole, new listings were up by three per cent year-over-year to 14,424.

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Omer Ali KhanDirector of IQI Dubai

+971 4 352 474 8+971 4 352 474 3 Al Moosa Tower 1, Level 3,305, Sheikh Zayed Road,P.O.Box 9567 Dubai

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: AMEinfo, Property Monitor, ValuStrat Price Index (VPI), Arabian Business

RESIDENTIALA total of 35,000 residential units, both villas and apartments, were delivered into the market in 2019. While that was considered a record, there are 80,000 pencilled in for delivery this 2020.

Recent performance across the UAE’s residential markets has been encouraging and, while international buyer interest and aspects of the transactional processes may be disrupted, we expect the impact to be limited.

Rents for both apartments and villas in the Emirate, overall, were down about 8% year-on-year.

Page 14: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Omer Ali KhanDirector of IQI Dubai

+971 4 352 474 8+971 4 352 474 3 Al Moosa Tower 1, Level 3,305, Sheikh Zayed Road,P.O.Box 9567 Dubai

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: AMEinfo, Property Monitor, ValuStrat Price Index (VPI), Arabian Business

COMMERCIALDubai’s commercial market remains negative with rents expected to continue to decline across all segments. However, the office market will likely begin to fragment - by area and even within asset grades.

Dubai saw a total of 10,243 real estate transactions, in Q1 2020, a 9.74 percent increase compared to Q1 2019’s total of 9,317.

Residential, hospitality and commercial property are still receiving frequent sales enquiries, particularly on Palm Jumeirah, despite the economic fallout and social restrictions due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Page 15: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Omer Ali KhanDirector of IQI Dubai

+971 4 352 474 8+971 4 352 474 3 Al Moosa Tower 1, Level 3,305, Sheikh Zayed Road,P.O.Box 9567 Dubai

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: AMEinfo, Property Monitor, ValuStrat Price Index (VPI), Arabian Business

COMMERCIALOff-plan sales, the top 5 performing areas in Dubai were Business Bay (149), Downtown Burj Khalifa (144), Mohammed bin Rashid City (120), Jumeirah Village Circle (88) and Palm Jumeirah (70).

Secondary market areas that witnessed the most sales were Dubai Marina (147), International City (109), Downtown Burj Khalifa (79), Business Bay (68), and Jumeirah Beach Residences (66).

Through buying off-plan offering attractive instalments that stretch to handover and beyond, preserving in the main, the immediate cash position of investors, even though the return on bank deposits in many cases is negligible. However, on the flip side, for those with access to credit, mortgage rates are highly attractive at present.

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Nicholas TanProperty Investment Strategist

+6 03 7450 6655VSQ@PJCC, Block 6-10-1, Jalan Utara, 46200 Petaling Jaya, Selangor

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSources: Bernama (Malay Mail), PropertyGuru (NST)

RESIDENTIALAnalysts foresee domestic and global recession but when it comes to real estate, market experts anticipate corresponding effects on home seeker sentiment to be short-lived, with prospects for recovery in the near term.

According to property data analytics and solutions provider MyProperty Data Sdn Bhd, it underscores the property market’s resilience in the face of prior economic downturns and viral outbreaks, notably the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2002.

Whether in terms of price, transaction volume or value, the property market has repeatedly showcased a tendency to bounce back immediately following a downturn. This is seen in surging transaction volumes and values in the years following the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the Nipah virus outbreak, SARS, as well as the global financial crisis in 2008 and H1N1 outbreak.

Similar recoveries are also seen in national house price growth in the years following 2001, 2006 and 2009.

In terms of property types, high rises exhibited the most volatility in prices from 1999-2009, from a high of 15.1 per cent growth in 2003 to a low of –5.9 per cent the previous year (see Chart B).

Page 17: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Nicholas TanProperty Investment Strategist

+6 03 7450 6655VSQ@PJCC, Block 6-10-1, Jalan Utara, 46200 Petaling Jaya, Selangor

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSources: Bernama (Malay Mail), PropertyGuru (NST)

COMMERCIALThe COVID-19 outbreak is the most unfavourable factor for the commercial property sector in 2020, followed by the country’s economic state, availability of funds and yields and return.

In its Malaysia Commercial Real Estate Investment Sentiment Survey (CREISS) 2020, it said the majority of the respondents felt that the impact of Budget 2020, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and the revision of the Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT) base year were not significant to spur the commercial property market.

Page 18: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

Nicholas TanProperty Investment Strategist

+6 03 7450 6655VSQ@PJCC, Block 6-10-1, Jalan Utara, 46200 Petaling Jaya, Selangor

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSources: Bernama (Malay Mail), PropertyGuru (NST)

In addition to the automatic six-month moratorium on all bank loans, property taxes such as quit rent and assessment for the second half of 2020 should be waived, and stamp duty reduced to cushion the impact of COVID-19 on the Malaysian property market.

These negatives, however, could be tempered by the offsetting influence of further substantial interest rate reductions, the release of pent-up consumer demand as the movement control order (MCO) restrictions are lifted, and the impact of stimulus measures feeding through into the economy.

RETAILPost COVID-19, the difficult business operating environment would put further pressure on the occupancy and rental levels of the office, retail and hotel/leisure sub-sectors.

History has indicated that some equilibrium could be expected to return to the market once the crisis has passed, it would take time to absorb the various effects and issues.

In terms of the investment plan, there would be a lower investment in the office, retail and hotel/leisure sub-sectors in 2020 although industry players have expressed their interest to invest more in the logistics/industrial, healthcare and institutional sub-sectors.

As a result, yield compression for commercial properties is likely to reverse and this may lead to greater investment opportunities amid the challenging market environment.

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EmmanuelAndrew Venturina

Vice President of IQI Philippines+632 551 9215RM 272, 2F Comfoods Buildings,Sen. Gil. J. Puyat Avenue,Corner Chino Roces StreetMakati City

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Colliers, Philippine Star

RESIDENTIALWith the enhanced community quarantine, there is very minimal movement in the market. There are still inquiries coming in online but property viewings and move-in are restricted.

There is a slight drop in rental in Makati, BGC and Ortigas CBD due to low demand from Chinese clients, especially in districts where demand is coming from the POGO sector.

According to Colliers, a 16% to 18% vacancy is expected in 2020 compared to 11% in 2019. If the situation in China improves and the COVID-19 cases become manageable in the next few months, it is expected that the market will pick up on the second half of the year.

For pre-selling properties, there is a continuous movement in the market as properties are still being sold online. SMDC Brokers Network team has sold more than 100 units during the ECQ which gives an assurance that the market could recover once the ECQ is lifted.

Established and big developers are pushing back their scheduled launching of their projects this year but with more incentives, promotions both for clients and sellers. Some developers are offering a double commission to motivate sellers.

The bank has lowered the interest rates to encourage borrowing and catalyse a movement in the market. Contrary to the 1997 and 2008 financial crisis, banks are more liquid hence, we see investors taking advantage of the low-interest rates and affordable payment terms.

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EmmanuelAndrew Venturina

Vice President of IQI Philippines+632 551 9215RM 272, 2F Comfoods Buildings,Sen. Gil. J. Puyat Avenue,Corner Chino Roces StreetMakati City

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Colliers, Philippine Star

OFFICEAmong other real estate segments, the office is the most impacted by the lockdown due to the pandemic. Although China is already showing signs of recovery, the employees of offshore gaming are still stuck in China due to the travel ban.

POGO has contributed 3% to the total Philippine GDP of 2019 from all the office rentals, employees housing, salaries and taxes. Last year, POGO has occupied around 1.2Million square meters of offices in major CBDs.

It is predicted that there will be a decline in 2020 even if the market manages to bounce back on the second half of this year. Given the current situation, we expect the Metro Manila vacancy to increase from 4.3% to 6.8%.

Depending on the developing situation of the community quarantine, the vacancy could be closer to 8% if the demand gap left by POGO will not be picked up by traditional and outsourcing firms. To ease the situation, landlords are coming up with more flexible and economical rates and payment schemes.

With the new trend of work from home, this “new norm” could also affect the vacancy rate. If there will be restrictions in the movement of people from one city to another because of COVID-19, the rise of demand for co-living will adjust with the current situation.

Landlords are also more likely to enhance the sanitation and wellness features of the towers and attract more firms from the pharmaceutical and health industry.

BPO and KPO industry is looking optimistic as there is a continuous demand for outsourcing talents here in the Philippines in which workforce salaries and office rents remain affordable for outsourcing companies. With more government incentives and landlords attractive terms, the office segment might recover fast.

Page 21: IQI MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - IQI Global€¦ · Director of IQI Canada +(1)905 564 2344 +(1)905 564 6744 +(1)647 669 9222 6705 Tomken Road Unit 226, Toronto (Mississauga) L5T 2J6 Contact

EmmanuelAndrew Venturina

Vice President of IQI Philippines+632 551 9215RM 272, 2F Comfoods Buildings,Sen. Gil. J. Puyat Avenue,Corner Chino Roces StreetMakati City

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Colliers, Philippine Star

RETAIL & HOTELThe hotel and retail sectors are the one being highly affected by the community quarantine/ lockdown due to COVID-19. Based on tourism reports, there is a 40% decline in foreign arrivals particularly from South Korea and China, two of the major markets.

Hotel operators are now at 30-40% occupancy and rates are being lowered 20% to 40% to ease the market. If the lockdown and the further effect of COVID-19 situation persists, it is predicted there will be a further decline in the demand and rates.

Besides that, mall operators are waiving the rent of the locators/ mall tenants until the community quarantine ends. With the current situation, developers are putting off the launch and construction of new malls.

These two sectors might take a longer time to recover as this industry will likely bounce back once there is a vaccine and the cases of COVID-19 becomes manageable and minimal.

Hotels and malls might be able to start operation during the last quarter of the year but it is expected that there will be less foot traffic because of social distancing being part of the “new norm”.

Currently, hotels are being utilised by some companies as a temporary office as it has more means of enforcing and controlling health protocols and social distancing.

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SOMSAKCHUTISILP

Director of IQI Thailand+66 81 909 0599128/405 Unit F, 37th Floor, Phyathai Plaza Building, Phyathai Road, Thung-Phyathai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400 Thailand.

Contact Us

Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Bangkokpost, Phoenix Property Development and Consultancy, Thai Retailers Association, Real Estate Information Center (REIC), CBRE

RESIDENTIALAccording to the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), the residential property market growth this year has dropped to 3-5% from 5-7% following lowered GDP growth forecasts of 1.5-2.5% amid the spread of the recent COVID-19 outbreak.

Vichai Viratkapan, REIC's Acting Director-General, said the outbreak is a new threat that will have a strong impact on the worldwide and domestic economies.

In a base case scenario, the number of units transferred nationwide will drop 4.5% to 356,661 units, down from an earlier forecast with a dip of 0.2%.

The worst case is a plunge of 14% to 320,995 units and the best case is an increase of 3.9% to 387,927 units.

Somprawin Manprasert, Chief Economist, Head of Research and Executive Vice-President at Bank of Ayudhya, said three factors were hammering at economic growth. The biggest one was the COVID-19 outbreak that will affect GDP by 0.4 percentage points through international tourism losses.

China holds an important role in the world's tourism market as it accounts for 20% of the sector, up from 3% in 2002.

The outbreak also affects the global supply chain because a lot of materials cannot be exported from China. Thus, this will also lead to unemployment. Positive sentiment in the property market will return in the second half.

Drought will slash GDP growth by 0.3%, with a predicted loss of 20 billion baht for the agricultural sector if the water shortage lasts until May, which could reach 40 billion by September.

The delay in government spending will hurt GDP growth by 0.1% as around 150 billion baht from a total of 400 billion for megaprojects will be postponed.

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SOMSAKCHUTISILP

Director of IQI Thailand+66 81 909 0599128/405 Unit F, 37th Floor, Phyathai Plaza Building, Phyathai Road, Thung-Phyathai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400 Thailand.

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Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Bangkokpost, Phoenix Property Development and Consultancy, Thai Retailers Association, Real Estate Information Center (REIC), CBRE

Thanavath Phonvichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said there are positive aspects such as the declining rate of COVID-19 infections and greater political stability after the dissolution of the Future Forward Party.

Other than that, he suggests potential homebuyers make a decision this year because it is likely they will get a good price.

OFFICEAccording to CBRE Thailand, the COVID-19 outbreak is likely to create a drastic change in the Bangkok office market within a few months, particularly in behaviour and use of space.

Roongrat Veeraparkkaroon, Head of Advisory and Transaction Services for Offices, said that companies have been exploring remote work or work-from-home strategies for many years to either reduce costs or cope with the millennial generation's working style even before the pandemic.

Companies are exploring with work-from-home policies and recognise an opportunity that it could work when applied to certain business areas and set the right balance between empowering and monitoring teams.

There is a possibility that future workplace will have a mixture of agile workplaces, with a permanent office complementing work-from-home and co-working spaces.

Co-working spaces will be one of the best alternatives because a company can rent space on demand when needed.

The pandemic has also delayed many office developments in Bangkok as construction activities are halted and developers are more defensive to assess the situation daily.

Agile and adaptive will be important features in the post-pandemic office market, not only to increase the efficiency of an organization but to prepare a business for any unforeseen events that could occur in the future.

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SOMSAKCHUTISILP

Director of IQI Thailand+66 81 909 0599128/405 Unit F, 37th Floor, Phyathai Plaza Building, Phyathai Road, Thung-Phyathai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400 Thailand.

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Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Bangkokpost, Phoenix Property Development and Consultancy, Thai Retailers Association, Real Estate Information Center (REIC), CBRE

RETAILThe retail market in Thailand like many countries around the world is facing a difficult time. And although the Thai retail market still has room to grow, the upward trend may only last for a few more years.

Online shopping is the main factor directly affecting the retail business. Many retail operators and property developers are thus trying to increase their online market share by developing their digital platforms.

Given the new digital reality, physical retail supply in the future will not increase as much as it has in the past. Brick-and-mortar stores are no longer the first place most people look when they want to buy something.

A total of 204,200 square metres of new retail space was opened in Bangkok and the surrounding area in 2019. Shopping malls accounted for the largest proportion at 65%, followed by community malls at 15%. Total retail supply at the end of 2019 was 5.45 million sq m. Another 107,900 sq m is under construction and scheduled to be completed this year.

Some 59% of the retail supply in Greater Bangkok is shopping malls, followed by community malls at 16%.

The total value of the retail market last year grew by just 2.8%, according to the Thai Retailers Association, reflecting weak economic conditions and sagging consumer confidence.

One trend new to Thailand is the development of luxury outlet malls featuring global brand names and upscale shops to attract foreign tourists. Siam Piwat and Central Group have both developed outlet malls close to Suvarnabhumi airport.

Conventional outlet malls have been successful locally for many years and are also attracting renewed interest from some investors.

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SOMSAKCHUTISILP

Director of IQI Thailand+66 81 909 0599128/405 Unit F, 37th Floor, Phyathai Plaza Building, Phyathai Road, Thung-Phyathai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400 Thailand.

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Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Bangkokpost, Phoenix Property Development and Consultancy, Thai Retailers Association, Real Estate Information Center (REIC), CBRE

A total of 515,000 sq m of new shopping mall space is expected to open between 2020 and 2022, including 312,500 sq m in the Bangkok city area.

As online shopping continues to grow in popularity, along with app-powered delivery services for food and other services, mall owners may find it harder to attract tenants. Many brand owners are reducing the number of stores in brick-and-mortar retail projects and focusing more on their online platforms instead.

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Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Thi Truong Tai Chinh Tien Te, Jones Lang LaSalle, CafeF.

NGUYENNGOC THIEN AN

Sales Director of IQI Vietnam+84 792 966 008Ground floor, City Gate, No. 67-69 Xa Lo Ha Noi, District 2, HCMC, Vietnam

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RESIDENTIALAccording to the latest report of Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) Vietnam, in Ho Chi Minh City, the total number of apartments sold in the first quarter of 2020 recorded was only 1,980 units, less than half of the numbers recorded in the last quarter of 2019.

Apartment market liquidity is equal to 54% of the total amount of available goods in the first quarter, the lowest level since the second quarter of 2017.

Most transactions in the Q1 2020 were recorded of projects that had pre-sale activities before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The affordable and mid-end segments continued to perform well, accounting for 80% of total sales, largely for housing demand.

Besides that, the report shows that the rate of sales of inland houses in the first quarter of 2020 also recorded only 366 units, a reduced number than the quarterly average for the past five years.

The outbreak of COVID-19 has decreased the momentum of market consumption, but this quarter's sales have not been affected much as most of the sales were made in the pre-sale event from before the outbreak happened.

OFFICEBetween February and March 2020 with the same period in 2019, the number of customers seeking for office rentals has decreased by 20%.

In March 2020, the number of requests to suspend, reduce, or postpone office searches from tenants accounted for about 41% of all CBRE requests.

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NGUYENNGOC THIEN AN

Sales Director of IQI Vietnam+84 792 966 008Ground floor, City Gate, No. 67-69 Xa Lo Ha Noi, District 2, HCMC, Vietnam

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Visit www.iqiglobal.com for more informationSource: Thi Truong Tai Chinh Tien Te, Jones Lang LaSalle, CafeF.

According to Le Trong Hieu, Director of Office Services National Business Line Leader (CBRE Vietnam), some industries are more affected including IT, banking, insurance, pharmacy and education sectors.

CBRE states that when the outbreak started, new tenants entering the market for the first time from Hong Kong and Taiwan (China) postponed their plans to Vietnam to survey the premises.

Since the pandemic has spread to many countries, other tenants such as the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea and even Vietnam has stopped planning its development.

RETAILBy the end of the first quarter of 2020, rents for the ground floor and first floor of the CBD decreased by 11.4% compared to the previous quarter and rents in non-CBD areas decreased by 15.9% compared to the previous quarter due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

This is according to the CBRE Vietnam's Q1 Q12020 Market Report, it also indicates that most of the projects in the city have applied the average rent reduction of 10-30% for different industries towards the end of March 2020, a few from February 2020 and the highest is free rents for industries forced to close.

Accordingly, retail is one of the most affected markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. During Q1 of 2020, the retail sales of accommodation and travel services decreased by 9.6% and 27% respectively, 8% over the same period last year.

In shopping malls, the number of visitors has decreased starting from February and by the end of March, it was down approximately 80% at projects.

The reduction will be higher for the tenants on higher floors. As compared to the same period from last year, rents for CBDs decreased by 6.6% and rents for non-CBD areas decreased by 17.6%.

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That time of the year has arrived, Muslims around the world welcome the month of Ramadan with open arms. However, this year will be different as Muslims are expected to observe the holy month while practising social distancing by staying at home. This might be the best time to reconnect with your loved ones and strengthen the family bond.

IQI continues to push forward through these times of crisis, with a passionate team of experts that utilise technology and the latest digital trends to bring clients the very best service. Innovation has always been a strong element in IQI, keeping us confident and ahead of the curve in any situation. Real estate and tech will continue to move ahead steadily and will have a bright future, especially post COVID-19.

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