iri ukraine pre-election poll
DESCRIPTION
The survey was conducted September 12–25, 2014 by Rating Group Ukraine and Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organizationon behalf of the International Republican Institute.TRANSCRIPT
International Republican Institute
Public Opinion SurveyResidents of Ukraine
September 12-25, 2014
Detailed Methodology
2
• The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization
on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.
• Data was collected throughout Ukraine (excluding Crimea), including the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, between
September 12–25, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home.
• The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is
representative for the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement.
• Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection
procedures.
• Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv).
All regions of Ukraine were surveyed except Crimea.
• Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to
the size:
• City more than one million residents
• City 500,000-999,000 residents
• City 100,000-499,000 residents
• City 50,000-99,000 residents
• City to 50,000 residents
• Village
• Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to
the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region.
• Stage three: primary sampling units were described.
• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.
• Response rate was 63 percent.
• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
• The survey was funded by U.S. Agency for International Development.
International Republican Institute
Strong Majority in Every Region Opposes Russia’s Military Aggression
Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine?
4
7%
4%
2%
6%
5%
4%
9%
12%
10%
72%
73%
79%
6%
6%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
March 2014
April 2014
September2014
Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose Don't know/Refused to answer
5
1%
1%
4%
2%
5%
7%
3%
12%
13%
13%
96%
81%
76%
65%
1%
4%
5%
11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
West
Center
South
East
Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine?
Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine?
6
1%
4%
2%
7%
9%
13%
86%
66%
3%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ukrainian-speaking citizens
Russian-speakingcitizens
Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
In your opinion, which of the following should Ukraine do?
7
64%
66%
75%
10%
7%
5%
14%
17%
9%
1%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
10%
7%
8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
March 2014
April 2014
September2014
Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea
Become a federal country Be divided into several countries
Other Difficult to answer/No answer
To what extent do you agree with each of the following statements?
8
49%
23%
21%
12%
7%
33%
31%
36%
23%
25%
8%
25%
22%
28%
32%
4%
14%
10%
28%
27%
6%
7%
11%
9%
8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
I am proud to be a Ukrainiancitizen
My future depends primarily onme
I feel respected by Ukrainiansociety
With hard work one can achievea lot in life
Ordinary citizens like me caninfluence government decisions
Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree
Completely disagree Don't know/Refused to answer
To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “I am proud to be a Ukrainian citizen.”
9
53%
43%
50%
77%
57%
33%
25%
32%
36%
31%
20%
30%
44%
40%
6%
7%
10%
2%
5%
17%
11%
3%
7%
3%
2%
3%
11%
6%
7%
6%
1%
6%
3%
13%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
18-29 years
30-49 years
50 years and older
West
Center
South
East
AG
ER
EG
ION
Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagreeCompletely disagree Don't know/Refused to answer
How would you evaluate the efforts of the new authorities of Ukraine to secure the territorial integrity of Ukraine?
10
14%
15%
29%
30%
27%
33%
23%
14%
7%
8%
April 2014
September 2014
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
They've done everything that could be done They've only done some of what could be done
They've done very little of what could be done They've been completely inactive
Difficult to answer/No answer
Who should pay for the reconstruction of the Donetsk and Luhanskregions of Ukraine which were damaged during the military
activities there?
11
56%
32%
16%
16%
11%
4%
9%
13%
Russia
Donetsk and Luhansk regions
Other regions of Ukraine
European Union
United States
Commonwealth ofIndependent States
Other
Don't know/Refused to answer
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
In your opinion, what should Ukraine do about Crimea? Should it use all available resources to return Crimea to Ukraine or should it
accept the loss of Crimea to Russia?
12
55%
26%
19%
Use all available resources toreturn Crimea to Ukraine
Accept the loss of Crimea toRussia
Difficult to answer/No answer
Do you support the anti-terrorist operation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions?
13
28%
31%
15%
18%
8%
Fully support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Fully oppose
Don't know/Refused to answer
International Republican Institute
Clear Support for Kyiv Government
Do you approve of the job Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenkois doing?
15
15%
40%22%
13%
10%
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Don't know/Refusedto answer
If Ukraine were only able to enter one international economic union, which of the following should it be?
16
42%
36%
37%
32%
40%
42%
41%
52%
53%
59%
40%
43%
41%
42%
37%
37%
36%
27%
24%
17%
3%
4%
5%
6%
5%
5%
9%
6%
10%
10%
15%
17%
17%
20%
18%
16%
14%
14%
13%
14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
November2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
September2013
February 2014
March 2014
April 2014
September2014
European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/No answer
How would you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries?
17
57%
54%
51%
48%
46%
44%
41%
39%
31%
15%
35%
37%
39%
38%
44%
46%
40%
51%
53%
17%
6%
6%
7%
11%
7%
6%
16%
5%
14%
66%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
2%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Poland
Georgia
Belarus
EuropeanUnion
Lithuania
Canada
UnitedStates
Moldova
Germany
Russia
Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer
What is your opinion of the work of each of these institutions? Is it favorable or unfavorable?
18
68%
67%
54%
48%
42%
39%
39%
38%
34%
27%
27%
20%
19%
15%
15%
14%
14%
11%
23%
17%
36%
39%
45%
44%
52%
42%
39%
34%
54%
53%
71%
73%
81%
73%
75%
77%
9%
16%
10%
13%
13%
17%
9%
20%
27%
39%
19%
27%
10%
12%
4%
13%
11%
12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Army
The church
Ukrainian media
Local authorities
Presidential administration
Education system
Cabinet of Ministers
Governors' office
Central Election Commission
Ombudsman's office
Security service of Ukraine
Trade unions
Police
Prosecutor's office
Parliament
Central bank
Political parties
Courts
Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No answer
Do you approve of the job the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministersunder Arseniy Yatsenyuk is doing?
19
12%
16%
13%
34%
36%
35%
17%
16%
27%
27%
24%
15%
9%
8%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
March 2014
April 2014
September2014
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer
What is your opinion about each of these members of the Ukrainian government?
20
57%
54%
33%
28%
25%
25%
24%
23%
18%
34%
39%
55%
53%
31%
41%
33%
47%
34%
1%
1%
4%
27%
15%
26%
13%
29%
9%
6%
11%
15%
17%
19%
17%
17%
19%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk
Speaker of Parliament Oleksandr Turchynov
Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov
Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin
Prosecutor General Vitaliy Yarema
Deputy Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman
Minister of Defense Valeriy Heletey
Minister of Economic Development Pavlo Sheremeta
Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/No answer
International Republican Institute
Voter Enthusiasm for Parliamentary Elections is High
If early parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections?*
22
33%
34%
41%
42%
49%
41%
36%
34%
35%
33%
32%
32%
8%
7%
8%
5%
4%
7%
19%
20%
10%
12%
11%
15%
4%
5%
6%
8%
4%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
May 2013
September 2013
February 2014
March 2014
April 2014
September 2014
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably not Definitely not Don't know/Refused to answer
* In surveys conducted in 2013 and in March and April 2014, the wording of the question was: If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced
today, would you vote in such elections?
If early parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections?
23
63%
53%
19%
24%
28%
29%
43%
31%
3%
5%
8%
11%
6%
9%
24%
24%
3%
6%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
West
Center
South
East
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably not Definitely not Don't know/Refused to answer
If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the elections, which
political party would you vote for?
24
32%
10%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
2%
19%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko (V.Klychko, Yu.Lutsenko)
Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (О.Lyashko)
Batkivshchyna (Yu.Tymoshenko)
Civic Position (A.Hrytsenko, V.Hatsko)
People’s Front (A.Yatsenyuk, О.Turchynov)
Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok)
Association SAMOPOMICH (H.Hopko, A.Sadovyi)
Strong Ukraine (S.Tihipko)
Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko)
Party of Regions (M.Dobkin, R.Akhmetov)
Centre (V.Rabinovych)
Right Sector (D.Yarosh)
Powerful Ukraine (L.Orobets)
Other
Difficult to answer/Don't know
(Likely voters, n=880)
In your opinion, was the presidential election on May 25, 2014 free and fair?
25
25%
38%
14%
7%
16%
Absolutely free and fair
Mostly free and fair
Not very free and fair
Absolutely not free and fair
Don't know/Refused to answer
International Republican Institute
Mood of Ukraine
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?
27
13% 13% 14%
24%
15% 15%
18%
30%34%
29%
71%
73%
66%
58%
69%67%
64%
52%
48%
51%
16% 14%
20%
18%
16%18%
17% 18% 18%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
November2011
March2012
May2012
August2012
May2013
September 2013
February2014
March2014
April2014
September2014
Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer
Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Ukraine changed?
28
0% 1%
11%
29%
57%
2%
Improved a lot
Improved somewhat
Stayed the same
Worsened somewhat
Worsened a lot
Don't know/Refusedto answer
Which of the following issues are the three most important for Ukraine? (Three responses)
29
73%
37%
24%
23%
20%
17%
16%
14%
14%
14%
14%
9%
8%
6%
2%
1%
2%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Military conflict in the Donbas
Corruption within the state bodies
Unemployment
Political instability
Relations with Russia
Control over price growth
Hryvnia devaluation
Low industry production
Government incompetence
Lack/Possibility of cutting off utilities
Russian presence in the Crimea
Social protection for poor
Crime
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Rights to land ownership
Russian language status
Other
Difficult to answer/No answer
Do you think it is acceptable for groups of people to use each of the following methods of protest?
30
84%
71%
63%
61%
29%
25%
20%
16%
14%
13%
11%
21%
28%
30%
61%
65%
71%
76%
77%
79%
5%
8%
9%
9%
10%
10%
9%
8%
9%
8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Collecting signatures for petition/letter
Legal demonstrations
Legal strikes
Boycott
Demonstrations without permission
Strikes without permission
Blocking of major roads
Occupation of buildings or enterprises
Blocking of railway lines
Blocking of airports
Acceptable Unacceptable Don't know/No answer
Are you willing to live through some economic difficulties today(e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it leads to long-term
improvements in the quality of your life?
31
17%
38%21%
18%
6%
Definitely willing
Somewhat willing
Not very willing
Definitely not willing
Don't know/Refusedto answer
Are you willing to live through some economic difficulties today(e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it leads to long-term
improvements in the quality of your life?
32
31%
18%
10%
8%
52%
36%
36%
32%
10%
24%
20%
26%
3%
16%
28%
26%
4%
6%
6%
8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
West
Center
South
East
Definitely willing Somewhat willing Not very willing
Definitely not willing Don't know/Refused to answer
Would your family be willing to save on gas, heat and electricity if you were confident that it would strengthen Ukraine’s position
against Russia?
33
20%
39%
17%
17%
7%
Definitely willing
Somewhat willing
Not very willing
Definitely not willing
Don't know/Refusedto answer
Would your family be willing to save on gas, heat and electricity if you were confident that it would strengthen Ukraine’s position
against Russia?
34
33%
24%
10%
10%
53%
34%
37%
34%
6%
21%
20%
21%
3%
12%
29%
26%
4%
9%
4%
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
West
Center
South
East
Definitely willing Somewhat willing Not very willing
Definitely not willing Don't know/Refused to answer
Should Ukrainian women serve in influential positions in the national government?
35
81%
12%
7%
Yes
No
Don't know/Refusedto answer
Should Ukraine institute a quota system to guarantee a minimum number of women in the Parliament?
36
36%
48%
16%
Yes
No
Don't know/Refusedto answer
International Republican Institute
Mass Media
Which of these sources of information do you use for obtaining political information?
38
89%
47%
39%
27%
21%
12%
12%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ukrainian TV
Internet
Relatives/Friends
Articles in Ukrainian newspapers
Ukrainian radio
Russian TV
Colleagues at work
Billboards, stands in the streets
Russian radio
Meetings with politicians
Articles in Ukrainian magazines
Leaflets/Other free information by post
None
Don't know/Refused to answer
How many times per week do you access the Internet?
39
19%
25%
24%
19%
24%
28%
30%
32%
6%
4%
6%
5%
6%
6%
9%
8%
7%
4%
9%
5%
8%
9%
8%
8%
7%
6%
6%
6%
9%
8%
5%
5%
5%
4%
5%
5%
5%
6%
6%
4%
54%
56%
49%
57%
47%
42%
40%
42%
2%
1%
1%
3%
1%
1%
2%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
November 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
September 2013
February 2014
September 2014
Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week
1-2 times per week Less often Never
Refused to answer/Don't know
International Republican Institute
Demographics
Demographics45%
55%
22%
35%
44%
67%
33%
28%
40%
32%
24%
1%
19%
3%
29%
4%
8%
7%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Male
Female
18-29 years
30-49 years
50 years and older
Ukrainian
Russian
Secondary or lower
Vocational
Higher
Blue collar
Farmer
White collar
Higher or medium executive
Retired/Not working
Student
Housewife
Unemployed
Other
GEN
DER
AG
E
LAN
GU
AG
E S
PO
KEN
AT H
OM
EED
UCATIO
NO
CCU
PATIO
N
41
Demographics
42
77%
9%
2%
3%
8%
1%
47%
51%
1%
1%
17%
8%
17%
9%
18%
31%
24%
31%
15%
30%
0% 50% 100%
Orthodox
Greek Catholic
Other
Atheist
Believe in God but don't belong to any religion
No answer
Bad
Average
Good
No answer
City with more than 1 million
City with 500-999 thousand
City with 100-499 thousand
City with 50-99 thousand
Up to 50 thousand
Rural area
West
Center
South
East
RELIG
ION
SIT
UATIO
N O
FFAM
ILY
SETTLEM
EN
T T
YPE
REG
ION
S
Demographics
Oblasts in the West:
Volynska, Transcarpathian, Ivano-Frankivska, Lvivska, Rivnenska,
Ternopilska, Chernivetska, Khmelnytska,
Oblasts in the Center:
Vinnytska, Kirovogradska, Poltavska, Cherkaska, Zhytomyrska,
Sumska, Chernihivska, Kyivska and the city of Kyiv
Oblasts in the South:
Odeska, Khersonska, Mykolaivska, Zaporizka
Oblasts in the East:
Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska
43
What can you say about the financial status of your family?
44
12%
11%
11%
12%
7%
10%
8%
11%
12%
14%
30%
31%
31%
29%
30%
26%
26%
30%
32%
33%
41%
36%
38%
41%
42%
41%
45%
44%
39%
37%
14%
17%
15%
14%
20%
20%
18%
13%
13%
13%
2%
3%
3%
3%
1%
2%
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Nov 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
September 2013
February 2014
March 2014
April 2014
September 2014
Need to save money for food
Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes
Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a goodsuit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleanerEnough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasing moreexpensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator)Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchases likea car or an apartmentI can buy anything at any time
Don't know/No answer
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%0.4%
