SPPI REPRINT SERIES ♦ February 15, 2011

IS 2010 THE HOTTEST

YEAR EVER?by Steve Goddard

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THE HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD?

by Steve Goddard | February 15, 2011

Dr. James Hansen of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has announced that

2010 was the “hottest year on record” – by 0.01 degrees. His claim has been widely touted in

the press as strong evidence that the climate is rapidly heating – due to human generated CO2

emissions. Dr. Hansen has also stated :

"I would not be surprised if most or all groups found that 2010 was tied for the

warmest year."

But most groups do not support his claim. The other independent source of surface

temperatures HadCRUT, shows 2010 cooler than 1998. The graph below shows the month to

month differences. Blue represents months where 2010 was cooler than 1998.

The next graph shows the HadCRUT temperature anomalies for each year since 1998. Last year

was not a remarkable year, and was not as warm as 1998.

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Similarly, full year satellite temperatures from RSS show 2010 monthly and annual anomalies

lower than 1998.

Satellite data from UAH also shows 2010 slightly cooler than 1998.

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The graph below shows 2010 monthly temperatures for each of the four primary data sets. As

you can see, the month-to-month behavior of GISS global temperatures during 2010 was out of

kilter with other data sources.

Note that GISS (blue) showed a large temperature spike in March - which was not seen by

others. And from July through November, GISS increased sharply while everyone else showed

temperatures dropping – due to a near record cold La Niña. La Niña is indicated by ocean

temperatures well below normal across much of the Pacific Ocean.

The November spike was followed in December by the largest month-to-month drop in the 130

year GISS record. What sudden change in the climate could have caused a sharp December

drop after four months of rise? A plausible explanation is that the August-November reported

GISS temperatures were too high, and that December came back more in line with reality.

The NOAA graph below shows that ocean surface temperatures across much of the Pacific have

been the coldest on record since July (yet GISS temperatures rose sharply during that time.)

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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/comp.png

From a physical point of view, it is implausible to have a July-November temperature spike

coincident with the rapidly cooling global sea surface temperatures seen in the graph below.

This is because the oceans make up almost 70% of the planet’s surface, and because sea

surface temperatures largely control the temperatures over land.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/AMSRE_SST_thru_Dec_10.gif

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COMPARISONS VS. 1998

The HadCRUT graph below shows that 2010 was not a remarkable year for temperatures, and

was cooler than 1998. In fact, HadCRUT also shows that temperatures have not warmed

appreciably (if at all) since 1998.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997/from

By contrast, Dr. Hansen claims that temperatures have increased steadily since the mid-1970s.

"Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior two

decades”

However, even his own data shows no significant trend since 2002, and chances are that the

GISS January, 2011 anomaly will be one of the lowest of the past decade.

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http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2002

The UK Met Office explicitly contradicts Dr. Hansen’s claim:

“In the last 10 years the rate of warming has decreased.”

DIVERGENCE FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES

Since the HadCRUT record warm year of 1998, GISS (green below) has steadily diverged from

other data sets, and is now showing temperatures 0.2 to 0.4 degrees warmer. This is

particularly significant because the claimed 2010 record is by a much smaller margin than the

discrepancy. Normally scientists will associate a range of errors with their numbers, but Dr.

Hansen has avoided mentioning that concept to the press. Rather he has boldly stated that

2010 is the hottest year on record – by 0.01 degrees.

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http://www.woodfortrees.org/

WHAT IS GISS DOING WRONG?

The biggest problem is that their warmest regions are in locations where they have little or no

data. GISS released the map below for December 2009 through November 2010, showing large

temperature anomalies near the North Pole of two to six degrees centigrade. Those hot red

temperatures skew the global average temperature anomaly upwards – by a significant margin.

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But when we look at where GISS actually has thermometers, we see that they have very few in

those “hot” regions. The grey regions in the map below indicate no data.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/

Temperature anomalies can vary a lot over short distances (note Russia in the map above) yet

GISS force fits the entire Arctic to 2-6 C above normal. By averaging in large fabricated

numbers, they skew the “global temperature” average upwards – by a significant amount.

Remember that the GISS record is only one hundredth of a degree warmer than their previous

record.

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Hansen’s claimed precision is much larger than his accuracy. He has no temperature data for

more than 10% of the planet. His error bar is probably +/- 0.3 degrees, yet he claims a record by

0.01 degrees. That mistake would cause him to fail an undergraduate science or engineering

class. GISS openly acknowledges that their artificial Arctic data is the cause of the discrepancy

with HadCRUT.

“A likely explanation for discrepancy in identification of the warmest year is the

fact that the HadCRUT analysis excludes much of the Arctic … (whereas GISS)

estimates temperature anomalies throughout most of the Arctic.”

http://www.go350ppm.org/Global20Surface20Temperature20Change.pdf

WAS 2010 A RECORD HOT YEAR?

There is little evidence to support that. For example, the UK Met Office reported that 2010 was

the coldest year in England since 1986. Temperatures there have dropped significantly over the

past decade.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/

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Last winter and the current one have seen record or near record cold across much of the

Northern Hemisphere. The Rutgers University graph below shows that North America had the

most extensive snow cover ever recorded last winter. One day in February, all 48 contiguous US

states had snow cover. This was due largely to unusually cold temperatures in the deep south.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=1

For the entire Northern Hemisphere, last winter had the second greatest snow extent on

record. This was again due to unusually cold temperatures at low latitudes – places like Florida,

Europe and China.

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http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1

Like last year, winter 2010-2011 is again bringing unusually cold weather across much of the

planet. Sea Surface Temperatures are running below normal across vast swaths of the ocean.

Recent satellite data shows that global temperatures are well below the thirty year mean. This

is not consistent with “record heat.”

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http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

December 2010 was the second coldest out of 353 years in England and the coldest on record

in the UK. Florida also had their coldest December on record in 2010, as seen below.

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/fl.html

The current winter has also seen near record snow across much of Asia, Europe and North

America. December had the fourth largest Northern Hemisphere December snow extent ever

measured.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/

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WHAT CAUSED THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN EARLY 2010?

GISS showed a large spike in temperatures in March. Was this actually due to “hot” weather?

The map below is the RSS satellite temperature anomaly map for March, and it shows some

interesting features.

http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_monthly.html

There is an anomalously warm region in Northern Canada and Western Greenland, where

temperatures were running about -20C, five degrees warmer than the normal -25C. This was

due to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which brings warmer than normal temperatures to

portions of Canada – and cold weather to Europe, Russia, the United States, and much of Asia.

Is -20C (-4F) hot? Not exactly. GISS extrapolated that “warmth” across the entire Arctic Map

below) and found a large March temperature spike which no one else saw. GISS also somehow

missed the cold weather in Europe and much of Russia.

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http://data.giss.nasa.gov/

Once again we see that Hansen’s 0.01 record temperature is based on suspect data.

Another important factor in the warmth of 2010 was a strong El Niño, which dominated the

first half of the year. This caused a short term spike in temperatures which should not be

interpreted as a trend.

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http://www.drroyspencer.com/

SOME HISTORY ABOUT DR. JAMES HANSEN

Dr. Hansen has a long history of exaggerated warming forecasts.

Hansen said the average U.S. temperature had risen from one to two degreessince 1958 and is predicted to increase an additional 3 or 4 degrees sometimebetween 2010 and 2020.

The Press-Courier (Milwaukee) June 11 1986

“Within 15 years (before 2001),” said Goddard Space Flight Center honcho JamesHansen, “global temperatures will rise to a level which hasn’t existed on earth for100,000 years”.

The News and Courier, June 17th 1986

Pursuing present plans for coal and oil, Hansen found, the climate in the middleof the 21st century “would approach the warmth of the age of the dinosaurs.”

The Leader-Post, January 9th, 1982

(Hansen’s 1988 forecast for Manhattan in 2008) “The West Side Highway [whichruns along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape acrossthe windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won'tbe there. The trees in the median strip will change." Then he said, "There will bemore police cars." Why? "Well, you know what happens to crime when the heatgoes up."

http://dir.salon.com/books/int/2001/10/23/weather/

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[Since Dr. Hansen made that prediction, NOAA tide gauges show less than onehalf inch rise in sea level near Manhattan.]

“How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer thantoday – which is what we expect later this century – sea levels were 25m higher.”

http://www.climateimc.org

Temperatures have not come close to what Dr. Hansen formally forecast in 1988 - seen below.

The red dot is the GISS December anomaly. (January will likely be even lower.) The top line is

where Hansen forecast we should be under a high-emissions scenario. The bottom dashed line

is where he forecast we would be if CO2 emissions were cut dramatically. Yet CO2 emissions

have greatly increased, but temperatures have not.

“Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reducedlinear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissionssuch that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.”

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf

Manhattan is not disappearing under water, but Dr. Hansen continues to project similar bloated

forecasts into the future.

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CONCLUSION

The 2010 record temperature claim is not scientifically supportable for many reasons – rather it

is a global warming marketing bullet. 2011 is starting out as a very cold year in the US and

across much of the rest of the planet – particularly Asia. Chances are 2011 will be one of the

coolest years in recent memory. It will be interesting to see what claims will be made by Hansen

this year.

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/YearTDeptUS.png

Dr. Hansen functions in the roles of global warming head coach, cheerleader, referee and

scorekeeper. Temperature measurements need to be made by neutral third parties in the

global warming debate.

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Cover art uploaded by Charon to dreamstime.com.