is-lm model and policy effectiveness[1].pdf
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International Monetary Policy
9 IS-LM Model and Policy Effectiveness 1
Michele Piffer
London School of Economics
1Course prepared for the Shanghai Normal University, College of Finance, April 2011Michele Piffer (London School of Economics) International Monetary Policy 1 / 1
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Lecture topic and references
In this lecture we use the IS - LM model to understand the real
effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies
Mishkin, Chapter 21
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On the Effectiveness of Demand-side Economic Policies
The results that we have shown in the previous lecture might inspirean excessive optimism on the possibilities of policymakers to affect
aggregate output
In this lecture we review some of the reasons that could makedemand-side policies ineffective, or at least effective only in the shortrun
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Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy
Consider a case where money demand is very interest rate inelastic(people do not want assets, as they do not trust them). In this case
the LM curve is almost vertical
This is because as Y increases money demand increases, so need ahuge increase in interest rate to take money demand back to startinglevel
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Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy
In this case the effectiveness of fiscal policy is very limited: an increasein G will increase output and hence money demand. As firms struggleto raise funds they will have to offer very high interest rates (giventhat money demand is inelastic). This will discourage investments
In this case the crowding out effect can be very strong, and almost noreal effect produced. Monetary policy will be instead effective
The less interest-sensitive is money demand and the more effective ismonetary relative to fiscal policy
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Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy
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Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
Consider a case where investments are very interest rate inelastic. Inthis case the IS curve is almost vertical
This is because as r decreases investments will increase by a smallamount. Alternatively, a small increase in output will require a hugedrop in interest rate
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Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
In this case the effectiveness of monetary policy is very limited: anincrease in Ms will reduce the interest rate. As firms dont take thisas an extra incentive to borrow and invest, the level of investmentswill remain unchanged.
In this case monetary policy will be ineffective, while fiscal policy willbe effective
The less interest-sensitive are investments and the more effective isfiscal relative to monetary policy
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Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
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Exercise 2 on IS-LM and Economic Policies
Show that the effect of a fiscal expansion on equilibrium output isincreasing in the sensitivity of money demand to the interest rate
(remember, the slope of the LM curve is decreasing in suchelasticity). Does the equilibrium interest rate vary more or less whenmoney demand is very sensitive to the interest rate?
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What happens in the Long Run
So far, the point of the model was to show that, under certainconditions, active economic policies on the aggregate demand canlead the economy towards a desired outcome
We have seen that there are certain situations that might makepolicies ineffective
An alternative source of prudence for an excessive reliance ondemand-side policies is that in the long run prices are not fixed, as
assumed in the IS-LM model
What happens in the long run when prices adjust?
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What happens in the Long Run
On this matter, we have to leave the Keynesian way of thinking andrely on Classical economic theory
This theory predicts that, in the long run, the economy stays on thenatural level of output Yn, independently on what the aggregatedemand is
This means that any difference between aggregate demand and thenatural level of aggregate supply will be matched by price variations
Yn is defined as the level of output where prices have no tendency toadjust, and reflects the potentials of the supply side of the economy
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What happens in the Long Run
According to this theory, if output is above Yn then prices willincrease, and if output is below Yn prices will decrease
This means that any economic policy that tries to to boost outputpermanently above Yn will run into inflationary pressures that willcause a disequilibrium on the money market, increase interest rateand discourage investment, taking Y back to Yn
The mechanism works through a variation in the real money supply
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Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in the Long Run
Consider a fiscal expansion that attempts to increase equilibriumoutput by shifting the IS curve to the right
We have seen that the increase in output will put upward pressure onthe interest rate
If we start from a situation where output is equal to its natural level,the fiscal policy will take the economy above its natural level, causing
inflationary pressures
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Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in the Long Run
This will reduce the real money supply, shifting the LM curve up,increasing equilibrium interest rate and reducing output
The long run effect is only on prices, as output gets back to hisoriginal level
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Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in the Long Run
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Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Long Run
Consider a monetary expansion that attempts to increase equilibriumoutput by shifting the LM curve to the right
We have seen that the increase money supply will put downwardpressure on the interest rate and increase output
If we start from a situation where output is equal to its natural level,the monetary policy will take the economy above its natural level,
causing inflationary pressures
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Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Long Run
This will reduce the real money supply, shifting the LM curve up,increasing equilibrium interest rate and reducing output, until the LM
curve reaches its starting position
The long run effect is only on prices, as output gets back to hisoriginal level
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Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Long Run
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What happens in the Long Run
The only useful economic policy in the long run is the one targeted atincreasing the natural level of output (reforms on the labor market,
free trade areas, pension reforms,...)
Monetary and fiscal policies can affect output in the short run, not inthe long run
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Plan for the Future
This basically completes our analysis of monetary policy in a closedeconomy
How does all this change as we move from closed to open economy?
Many things will be different. To understand we first have to study abit of international economics
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