IS THERE A “NEW ERA FOR DISTILLERS TRADE?”

GLOBAL MARKET STATUS AND EXPECTATIONS

Alvaro A. CorderoLIRYKAS Agribusiness Consulting S.A.

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GLOBAL DISTORTIONS?MARKET CHANGES?

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MARKET CONSIDERATIONS

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MARKET CONSIDERATIONS

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MARKET CONSIDERATIONS

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2019 CROP PROGRESS

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MARKET CONSIDERATIONS

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STATUS QUO OR NOT?

oTrade flowoRevenue - consolidationoEthanol future – Exports? vs Domestic?oChina or NO ChinaoExceptional “God Events” / Act of GoodoRoom to grow (ration and discovery)oContinued and new DDG production increase

in SA, EU.oDomestic lid?

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DDGS DOMESTIC USE

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DDGS VALUE EFFECT

oCommodity prices & availability

oRoom for higher value …

oExports vs SBM

oSubstitute alternatives

oDo we need more research?

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DDGS – INT. MARKET ANALYSIS

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CORN AND DDGS PS&D

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PRX 10 YEAR PROJECTIONS

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USA DDG EXPORTS MARKETING YEAR(SEPTEMBER-AUGUST)

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USA DDG EXPORTS CALENDAR YEAR(JANUARY-DECEMBER)

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GLOBAL MARKET PRICING

& FREIGHT SPREADS

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COMMODITY MARKETS (MAY 12TH, 2019)

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FOB US DDGS AND CORN PRICES

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© 2019 U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL

FOB US DDGS AND SOYBEAN MEAL PRICES

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OCEAN FREIGHT MARKETS & SPREADS

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C&F PRICE COMPARISONS (MAY 12TH, 2019)

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DDGS CONTAINER & RAIL EXPORT PRICES

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DDGS MARKET DYNAMICS

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MARKET STATUS 2018-2019

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MARKET STATUS 2018-2019

Indonesia (strong development)

LTA (slow growth)

Egypt (premium over DDGS)

…

India???

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PROS & CONS FOR DDGS

oCorn prices steady to bearishoHigher oil prices and gasoline + for

ethanoloAffordable global protein competitionoPositive changes on certain

government policies abroad (antibiotics, fumigation, GMO, trade barriers) – Turkey/Vietnam/Thailand

oCompetitive $ USDoMore trade access to developed and

developing regions

oTrade access compromised? Additional challenges both on tariff and non tariff barriers

oOutcome of China tradeo Industry growth for ethanol exports,

expected increase DDGS production - still not output change more exports less domestic consumption on ethanol

oAffordable ocean freight allows DDGS to move and access global markets, in addition to container values

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THANK YOU!

Alvaro A. Cordero

LIRYKAS Agribusiness Consulting S.A.

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