isthereafuturefortelecom.ppt [sólo lectura]antonio/isthereafuturefortelecom_slides.pdf · enron...
TRANSCRIPT
¿Hay un futuro para las Telecomunicaciones?”
Roberto SaraccoFuture Centre - [email protected]
Is there a future for Telecommunications?
Today’s SituationA possible FutureChallenges ahead
Birds of a Feather
TELCOS MOBILE OPER.
INTERNET COMPANIES MANUFACTURERS
TODAY’S SITUATION
Promises, Promises
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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
TODAY’S SITUATION
Promises, Promises
TODAY’S SITUATION
Aleron
360Networks Digital Teleport
Enron Broadband
Ebone/GTS
FLAG Telecom Global Crossing
GST
Impsat
KPNQwest
Sigma NetworksSphera
Storm TelecommunicationsTeleglobe
Telergy
Velocita
ViatelWilliams Communications
Adelphia Broadband Office
Metromedia
Convergent Com
Covad
ICG Comm
FastComm
Global Telecom
North Point
Rhythms
McLeodUSA
OnSite
NetConnections
XOCommun
Yipes
WINfirst
ZephionIridium
OmniskyMetricom
NextWave
PSINet
Ardent
Excite@home
Exodus
iBeam
NetRail
Globalstar
StarBand
Motient
ARTWinStar
Teligent
What did not Work…
• The myth of Replacement
TODAY’S SITUATION
What did not Work…
TODAY’S SITUATION
DoCoMo ARPU
• Revenue Ceiling - Revenue Squeeze
What did not Work…
TODAY’S SITUATION
• Demand vs Offer
What did not Work…
TODAY’S SITUATION
• Demand vs Offer
A lot of information out there…
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Music
Books
Mags
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WWW
TODAY’S SITUATION
A lot of information out there…
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Music
Books
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Newsp.
WWW
Office
RadioTB
TODAY’S SITUATION
A lot of information out there…
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Music
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TODAY’S SITUATION
A lot of information out there…
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MusicBooksMagsMoviesDVDNewsp.WWWOfficeRadioTelevis.e-MailTB
TODAY’S SITUATION
A lot of information out there…
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Music
Books
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e-MailTB
TODAY’S SITUATION
A lot of information out there…
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Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
Radio
Televis.
Home Video
Photos
Telefono
PB
TODAY’S SITUATION
A lot of information out there…
PB 0
100
200
300
400
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Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
Radio
Televis.
Home Video
Photos
Telefono
TODAY’S SITUATION
A lot of information out there…
PB 0
100
200
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400
500
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Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
Radio
Televis
Home Video
Photos
Telephone
TODAY’S SITUATION
What will be?
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
Beyond the barriers of space and…time
Beyond the Blackboard …
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
Beyond the barriers of space and…time
BEYOND THE BLACKBOARD …
Be there, staying here
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
INFORMATION APPLIANCES
A World of Intelligent Things
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
A World of Intelligent Things
ON THE ROAD,IN THE COUNTRYSIDE,...
INFORMATION APPLIANCES
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
Computers Evolution
1960… MAINFRAME1970… MINICOMPUTER1980… DESKTOP1990… LAPTOP1998… PALMTOP2002 ROACHTOP
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
Computers Evolution
1960… MAINFRAME1970… MINICOMPUTER1980… DESKTOP1990… LAPTOP1998… PALMTOP2002 ROACHTOP2005 PAPERTOP
A POSSIBLE FUTURE
Computers Evolution
1960… MAINFRAME1970… MINICOMPUTER1980… DESKTOP1990… LAPTOP1998… PALMTOP2002… ROACHTOP2005… PAPERTOP
2012… TOPA POSSIBLE FUTURE
Beyond Internet
Web Services
Resource Pr.Connection Pr.
Collective Pr.A POSSIBLE FUTURE
A crumbling world
Time / distance based pricing
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Traffic Revenues
SubscriptionRevenues
CHALLENGES AHEAD
A crumbling world
Time / distance based pricing
Bandwidth based pricing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
A crumbling world
Time / distance based pricing
SLA based pricing
Bandwidth based pricing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Outer Evolution
• Storage
52 MB
1 TBCHALLENGES AHEAD
Outer Evolution
• Storage
• RF Tag
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Outer Evolution
• Storage
• RF Tag
• Display
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Outer Evolution
• Storage
• RF Tag
• Display
• Battery
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Paradigms
Peer to Peer
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Paradigms
Peer to PeerCluster to Cluster
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Paradigms
Peer to PeerCluster to Cluster
Sticker
Expectations…
The goal is to have data rates up to 20 Mbps, even when used in such scenarios as a vehicle travelling
200 kilometers per hour(*)
(*) http://www.commsdesign.com/story/OEG20010626S0065
WHY?
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Disruptions Ahead
Increase in storage
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Dynamic Memory
Disruptions Ahead
Increase in storage
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Dynamic Memory
• Hard Disk
Disruptions Ahead
Increase in storage
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Dynamic Memory
• Hard Disk
• Read Only
Disruptions Ahead
A consumer market
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Squeezing Margins
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Squeezing Margins
• Managing the Unmanageable
A consumer market
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Squeezing Margins
• Managing the Unmanageable
• New Tech Leaders
A consumer market
Disruptions Ahead
Offer exceeds demand
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Content
• Carriers
• Applications
Disruptions Ahead
Pin-pointing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Zooming
Disruptions Ahead
Pin-pointing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Zooming
• Localization
Disruptions Ahead
Pin-pointing
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Zooming
• Localization
• Tagging
Disruptions Ahead
Moore’s Law reversed
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Disruptions Ahead
Wireless Access
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• From Connectivity to Services
• M2M
• Overlayed Networks
Disruptions Ahead
Displays
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Ubiquitous Connectivity
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Communications Environments
Digital Television
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Eyeballs
• Interactivity
• Advertising
From Bits to Atoms
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Printing bits
From Bits to Atoms
Disruptions Ahead
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Printing bits
• Packaging services into atoms
Looking for Value
1 MB of SMS = 1000 E
1 MB on mobile = 1 E
1 MB on fixed line = 0,1 E
1 MB of television = 0,001 E
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Looking for Value
Context FREE
1 E per mc
1.000 E per mc
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Looking for Value
Context
Internet
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Looking for Value
Context
Internet
Embedded Telecommunications
CHALLENGES AHEAD
4 or 40 millions Operators?
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Software Radio
• The Bigger the Better?
4 or 40 millions Operators?
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Software Radio
• WLAN
• The Bigger the Better?
4 or 40 millions Operators?
CHALLENGES AHEAD
• Software Radio
• WLAN
• Wireless Routers
• The Bigger the Better?
SUMMING IT UP
THE FUTURE
The future is in the fixed-network
Log(1+ )SB*n0
SUMMING IT UP
The future is in the fixed-networkThe future of services is in the wireless access
Log(1+ )SB*n0
THE FUTURE