it, organization and management - world...
TRANSCRIPT
IT, Organization and Management
Nick Bloom, Stanford, CEP & NBER
building on joint work with:Raffaella Sadun (LSE & CEP)John Van Reenen (LSE, CEP & NBER)
World-Bank, March 22nd 2007
I will focus on two results and their implications
Empirical results:1. The productivity of IT varies heavily, and this appears to depend on the organization & management of firms
2. These organizational & management practices vary strongly (and systematically) across firms and countries
Policy implications:(A) Increasing IT productivity involves firms optimally picking managerial/organizational practices – deregulated labor-markets (and weaker unions)
(B) IT subsides alone are unlikely to be effective in a regulated environment – fix the environment before possible IT subsidies
The role of management & organisation in IT productivity
Evidence on management & organization across countries
European productivity had been catching up with the US for 50 years…
1020
3040
50O
utpu
t per
hou
r wor
ked,
$10
00's
(200
5 P
PP)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010year
USA EU 15
Source: GGDC Dataset
Labor Productivity Levels
…but since 1995 US productivity accelerated away from Europe.
2530
3540
4550
Out
put p
er h
our w
orke
d, $
1000
's (2
005
PPP
)
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year
USA EU 15
Source: GGDC Dataset
Labor Productivity Levels
-
Change in annual growth in output per hour from 1990 –95 to 1995 –2001%
3.5
1.9
-0.5
U.S.
-0.1
1.6
-1.1
EU
This productivity miracle appears linked to the use of IT..…but only occurred in the US
IT using sectors*
IT producing sectors
Non- IT sectors
* IT using sectors defined as above median ratio (IT capital/Non-IT capital)
The US also had an IT investment boom which Europe did not match
02
46
8IT
Cap
ital S
tock
per
Hou
rs W
orke
d, 2
000
Euro
s
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year
USA EU 15
Source: GGDC
IT Capital Stock per Hours Worked
So why did the US have an IT productivity miracle and not Europe?
Two types of arguments proposed (not mutually exclusive):
1) Standard: US advantage lies in geographic/business environment
2) Alternative: US advantage lies in their firm organizational or management practices
We try to test between these by comparing US and non-US multinationals in the same country – the UK1
–Build 12,000 establishment data set from 1995-2003 in UK–Contains data on IT & productivity in manufacturing & services
1 “Americans do I.T. better. US multinationals and the productivity miracle”, Bloom, Sadun and Van Reenen (2007, Centre for Economic Performance mimeo & forthcoming NBER WP)
We find US firms in the UK appear to have had the same productivity miracle as their US parents
• US multinationals (in the UK) have higher returns from IT than non-US multinationals, driving their higher productivity growth
• US multinationals advantage particularly in IT using sectors
• US multinationals are also more IT intensive than non-US multinationals
• Appears to be robust, and not driven by industry differences, measurement errors, transfer pricing, skills, software etc..
So what does drive this? One story is US firms differentlyorganized, and this enables them to more effectively use IT
European Firms 4.13
4.93US Firms
Domestic Firms in Europe
4.87
3.67
4.11
Non-US MNEs in Europe
US MNEsin Europe
Organizational devolvement
Source: Data from Bloom and Van Reenen (2007, forthcomming QJE) survey of 732 firms in the US, UK, France and Germany. Differences between “US-multinational” and “Domestic” firms significant at 1% level in all panels except bottom left which is significant at the 10% level. Uses the identical organisational questions as Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson and Hitt (2002, QJE).
Organizational devolvement(firms located in Europe)
US firms do appear to be organized differently
0.40
0.42
0.52 0.75
0.65
0.42Domestic Firms
Non-US MNEs
US MNEs
Source: WIRS data (1984 and 1990) plots the proportion of establishments experiencing organizational change in previous 3 years (all establishments in the UK). US MNEs (N=190), Non-US MNEs (N=147), Domestic (N=2848). Senior manager is asked “whether there has been any change in work organization not involving new plant/equipment in the past three years” CIS data: we plot the proportion of establishments experiencing organizational or managerial change in previous 3 years. The firm is asked “Did your enterprise make major changes in the following areas of business structure and practices during the three year period 1998-2001?” with answers to either “Advanced Management techniques” or “Major changes in organizational structure” recorded as an organizational change.
Domestic Firms
Non-US MNEs
US MNEs
Organizational change(UK establishments, 1981-1990)
US firms also appear to change their organizational structure more frequently
Organizational change(UK establishments, 1998-2000)
Effective IT use also does appear to be associated with different (newer) organizational practices
1. Econometric firm level evidence, i.e.• Complementarity of IT and organizational practices in
production functions (Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson & Hitt (QJE, 2002), Caroli and Van Reenen (QJE, 2002))
2. Case study evidence, i.e.• Introduction of ATMs & PCs in banking (Hunter, 2002)
– Teller positions reduced due to ATM’s– “Personal bankers” introduced to sell loans &
insurance on the bank-floor with PCs & CRM software– Bank managers reduce – sell less financial products,
and regional managers can remotely manage with IT– Central check processing factories (not in branches)
• European banks did this much slower than US banks
The paper models this macro, micro and survey data based on four simple elements
1. IT is complementary with different organizational structures
2. IT prices are falling rapidly (especially since mid-1990s)
3. US “re-organizes” more quickly because it is more flexible• Less labor market regulation and weaker unions
4. Multinationals prefer similar global organisational structures• They take their home-country practices abroad with them
This is consistent with another piece of evidence –the IT characteristics of multinationals in the UK are linked with their home country labor regulation
Multinationals in the UK from highly labor regulated countries obtain lower returns on IT (in the UK)
– Controlling for this explains the US premium
Multinationals in the UK from highly labor regulated countries also significantly investment less in IT (in the UK)
– Again, controlling for this explains the US premium
Note that all these results include the standard set of controls for SIC-4 industry, year, establishment size, age, location etc…
Does this matter for IT policy?
Yes, if organisational/managerial practices vary across countries then returns from IT policies could vary a lot
But do org/management practices vary much?
Yes, I’ll show summary evidence suggesting they do
The role of management & organisation in IT productivity
Evidence on management & organization across countries
Large LSE-Stanford project to collect firm-level management and organisation data
Surveyed about 5,000 firms over 3 years. I will skip survey detailsand the data validation, and just show a summary of results
But, if anyone is interested this is all contained in painful detail in:
• “Measuring and explaining management practices across firms and countries”, Bloom and Van Reenen (2007, forthcoming QJE)
• “Measuring and explaining organizational practices across firms and countries”, Bloom, Sadun and Van Reenen (2007, CEP mimeo)
• Plus, questions, software, training guides, timetables and anonymized data on http://www.stanford.edu/~nbloom/index_files/Page371.htm
MAIN STEPS IN THE SURVEY PROCESS1) Target plant managers in medium manufacturing firms• Management coded on monitoring, targets and incentives• Organization coded in terms of decentralization and structure
2) Used a “double blind” survey to try to avoid bias• Managers are not informed (in advance) they are ‘scored’• Interviewers do not know company performance
3) Endorsements & design helped get 63% response rate• Letters from Central Banks, Ministries & Employers Groups• Never discussed financials in survey (just practices)• Framed as “Lean-manufacturing interview”
0 1 2 3
US
Germany
Japan
Sweden
France
UK
Italy
Poland
Portugal
China
Greece
India
MANAGEMENT PRACTICES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS COUNTRIES, BOTH BY TOTAL “SCORE”.....
Statistically similar groups
Average score across the 18 individual questions (1 to 5 scale)
Scores average over the 18 individual questions. Each question scored on a 1 to 5 basis, where 1 is defined as “worst-practice” and 5 “best-practice”. All the questions and 54 examples scores contained in Bloom and Van Reenen (2007). Questions are highly significantly correlated across firms with the independently collected performance measures including productivity, growth, survival, profitability and (for the quoted firms) Tobin’s Q. This does not imply causality, but does show that the management scores contain information linked to firm performance.
0 1 2 3 4
US
Germany
Sweden
Japan
UK
France
Italy
Poland
Portugal
India
Greece
China
Raw averageEmployment weighted average
WEIGHTING BY FIRM SIZE INCREASES THE CROSS COUNTRY MANAGEMENT SPREADAverage management scores by country
The US economy reallocates employees from badly managed to well managed firms more effectively then European economies, which in turn are better at reallocation than the Chinese, Greek and Indian economies
0.5
11
.50
.51
1.5
0.5
11
.5
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
China France Germany Greece
India Italy Japan Poland
Portugal Sweden UK US
y
91% of variation in management scores within countries
Distribution of firm level average management scoresTHE AVERAGE HIDES MUCH FIRM-LEVEL VARIATION
0 1 2 3
Sweden
US
UK
Germany
Poland
Italy
Portugal
France
India
Greece
Japan
China
THE EXTENT OF “DECENTRALIZATION” ALSO VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS COUNTRIES
Cou
ntry
Plant manager autonomy“Decentralization” is defined as the average score across four questions on hiring, investment, new-products and sales & marketing. In each question a score of 5 denotes all decisions being taken at the plant level while a score of 1 denotes all decisions being taken at the corporate HQ, with scores gradiated in between. See Bloom, Sadun and Van Reenen (2007) for details and all individual questions.
SUMMARY:• Productivity of IT appears strongly linked with organisational
and managerial practices
• These practices vary heavily across firms and countries
POLICY IMPLICATIONS:• Raise IT productivity by enabling firms to get their practices
right - deregulation, competition, non-distortive taxes etc.
• Avoid general IT subsidies – inefficient as many firms can not effectively use IT (also no obvious market failure)
BACK-UP
0 1 2 3 4
US
Germany
UK
Japan
Poland
Sweden
France
Italy
China
India
Portugal
Greece
…..AND ALSO BY RELATIVE “SCORE” ACROSS PRACTICES “People” management
“Operations” management
“People management” is the average of the 6 questions on human-capital management (incentives, rewards, hiring, firing policies etc.). “Operations management” is the average of the 6 questions on physical-capital management (monitoring, Lean, continuous improvement etc.). The relative scoring on these (HC-PC) is strongly correlated with both firm and industry level measures of human capital (+) and physical capital (-) intensity.
WHAT WE THINK IMPROVES MANAGEMENT
Results from the 2004 survey:
Competition – truncates tail of badly managed firms
Meritocracy – primo geniture succession in families problematic
Work in progress:
Globalisation (multinationals)
De-Regulation (of labor markets)
Education (of managers and worker)
0 1 2 3 4
US
Japan
Sweden
Germany
Italy
UK
France
Poland
China
Portugal
India
Greece Domestic firmsMultinationals
MULTINATIONALS ARE WELL RUN EVERYWHERE
Multinational presence also appears to be linked even with better management of domestic firms
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t sco
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Correlation of -0.140
World Bank labor market regulation index
….BUT, LABOUR MARKET REGULATION IS NOT LINKED WITH OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Thus, labor regulations appear to be associated with worse average management scores, but also a shift from “human-capital”to “physical-capital”management
MANAGEMENT IS LINKED WITH EDUCATION, PARTICULARLY IN NON-MANAGERS
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% managers with a degree
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agem
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INTERNAL VALIDATION SUGGESTS NOISY, BUT INFORMATIVE, MANAGEMENT DATA
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
`
1st interview
2ndin
terv
iew
• Re-interviewed 64 firms with different interviewers and managers
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Bottom 50% Top 50%Management score
Sales Growth, (% pa)
Bottom 50% Top 50%Management score
Survival Rates, (%)
Bottom 50% Top 50%Management score
Stock Market Value
Bottom 50% Top 50%Management score
Profit Rate, (%)
Bottom 50% Top 50%Management score
EXTERNAL VALIDATION ALSO SUGGESTED THE MANAGEMENT DATA WAS INFORMATIVEMatched to independently collected firm accounts data
Not causal estimation only shows management data informative
Labo
r Pro
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ivity
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r Pro
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ivity
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r Pro
duct
ivity
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r Pro
duct
ivity
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MANAGEMENT STYLES EVEN CORRELATE WITH INTERVIEW PUNCTUALITY….
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Japan
.2.4
.6.8
11
.2
2.5 3 3.5
0 1 2 3 4
US
Germany
Sweden
Japan
Italy
France
UK
Poland
Portugal
Greece
China
India
Firms with < 275 employeesFirms with ≥ 275 employees
CONTROLLING FOR FIRM SIZE
Average management scores by country
0 1 2 3
US
Germany
Japan
Sweden
UK
Italy
France
Poland
Portugal
India
Greece
China
With and without industry controls
Without industry controlsWith SIC3 controls
CONTROLLING FOR BROAD INDUSTRY COMPOSITIONAverage management scores by country
0 1 2 3 4
US Multinational
Other Multinational
Dispersed Shareholders
Private Equity or Venture Capital
EU Multinational
Managers
Family owned, external CEO
Private Individuals
Family CEO,
Founder
Family CEO, Primo Geniture
Government
OWNERSHIP IS CORRELATED WITH MANAGEMENTAverage management score, by type of ownership
“Professional”Management
“Big Firm / Multinational”Management
WE ALSO COLLECTED ORGANISATIONAL DATA (1)
Collected information on decentralization.
For example:
“To hire a FULL-TIME PERMANENT SHOPFLOOR worker what agreement would you need from Corporate HQ?”
(1) “No authority – even for replacement hire”
(3) “Requires sign-off from CHQ based on the business case. Typically agreed (i.e. about 80% or 90% of the time)”
(5) “Complete authority – it is my decision“
Asked similar questions about investment, new-products and sales & marketing
THEIR APPEARS TO BE NO LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ORGANISATION AND PRODUCTIVITY
There is no “one-size-fits-all” best organizational structure.
24
68
1 2 3 4 5 6
Plant manager autonomy
Labo
r pro
duct
ivity
Correlation=0.035Correlation=0.035
0 1 2 3
Sweden
US
UK
Germany
Poland
Italy
Portugal
France
India
Greece
Japan
China
THE EXTENT OF “DECENTRALIZATION” ALSO VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS COUNTRY
Cou
ntry
Plant manager autonomy
0 1 2 3
Sweden
US
UK
Germany
Poland
Italy
Portugal
France
India
Greece
Japan
China
(( ))
MAYBE LINKED TO HISTORICAL RELIGIOUS DIFFERENCES?
Plant manager autonomy
Cou
ntry
(of l
ocat
ion)
ConfucianConfucian
Catholic*Catholic*
Catholic & Catholic & ProtestantProtestant
ProtestantProtestant
* Greek Orthodox is close to Catholicism. Obviously India is excluded hereNote: Our view in not that religion matters now, but that it shaped the formation of national cultures in earlier centuries, with corporate organizational structures were developing.
MULTINATIONALS APPEAR TO TAKE THEIR DOMESTIC ORGANISATIONAL PRACTICES ABROAD
Plant manager autonomy
Cou
ntry
of o
wne
rshi
p (m
ultin
atio
nals
onl
y)
0 1 2 3
Finland
Sweden
UK
US
Belgium
France
Holland
Denmark
Germany
Switzerland
Japan
WE ALSO COLLECTED ORGANISATIONAL DATA (2)
Collected information on span-of control, for example:
“How many people directly report to the Plant Manager?”
Plant ManagerPlant Manager
SupervisorSupervisor
SupervisorSupervisor
SupervisorSupervisor
SalesSales
EngineeringEngineering
Average Span of Control0 2 4 6 8
Germany
Sweden
US
Italy
Poland
China
UK
Fra nce
Portugal
India
Greece
Japan
Cou
ntry
(of l
ocat
ion)
ASIAN & SOUTHERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE ALSO MORE HIERACHICAL, AND ANGLO-SAXON AND SCANDINAVIAN COUNTRIES FLATTER