jackson son & co - lri - sep 30, 2011

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Issue Date: 30/09/2011

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We want to encourage you to take an active role in theprice assessment process and help us to ensure that

the price assessments become increasingly accurateand robust. Have your say. Don’t be let out. You cancall us or email us with the inormation that you wouldlike us to take into account.

We will continue to develop our list o priceassessments and our methodology, listening careullyto the participants in the rice industry in order to keep

them relevant to the international rice market. Updateswill be published in our report and on our website.

We hope that this will become a useul and reliableresource or the industry.

IntroductionWelcome to the new “Live Rice Index” Report

produced by Jackson Son & Co (London) Ltd. Thisreport will be published weekly and will include marketcommentary and our weekly price assessments.

We are also developing a new website that will beavailable soon. We expect it to become a valuableresource or up to date inormation and historical data,

catering to all sectors o the industry rom armers tothe point o sale.

All our price assessments will be determined in line

with the “LRI Methodology” with particular attentionto those that we have chosen to be benchmarks,marked with this symbol: For more inormation on

our benchmarks and assessment principles pleasereer to our methodology statement available on ournew web site:

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B

Report Date: //



THAILAND - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE

100% Grade B 5 $620

5% Broken 5 $600

10% Broken 5 $595

15% Broken 5 $590

25% Broken 5 $560 A1 Super Broken 0 $490

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE CHANGE PRICE

Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B New 5 $1,090

Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B Old 0 n/a

Hom Mali White Rice A1 Super 0 $540

Pathumthani Fragrant 100% Grade B 25 $950

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE

Parboiled Milled Rice 100% STX -15 $610

Parboiled Milled Rice 100% -15 $600



PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE

IRRI-6 5% Broken -5 $480


IRRI-6 15% Broken 0 $470


386 2% Broken 0 n/aBroken Rice -15 $400

VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE CHANGE PRICE

Fragrant Rice 5% Broken New -10 $680

Fragrant Rice 5% Broken Old 0 n/a

PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE

IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX -10 $495


IRRI-9 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken 0 n/a

PAKISTAN - BASMATI RICE CHANGE PRICE

385 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% - n/a

D-98 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% - n/a

Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2% -10 $1,020

Super Kernel Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% -10 $1,035

INDIA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE

IR 64 5% Broken -5 $480

IR 64 25% Broken -5 $435

PR 106 5% Broken - n/a

PR 106 25% Broken - n/a

1001 / PANT 4 25% Broken - n/a

INDIA - BASMATI RICE CHANGE PRICE

Traditional White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $1,060

Traditional Brown Basmati Rice 2% 0 $950Traditional Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $950

Pusa White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $940

Pusa Brown Basmati Rice 2% 0 $900

Pusa Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $825

1121 White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $1,120

1121 Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $960

INDIA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE

IR 64 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 0 $470

PR 106 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 0 n/a

U.S.A. - GULF LONG GRAIN RICE CHANGE PRICE

U.S. #2, 4% Broken, Hard Milled 0 $660



U.S. #1, Parboiled Milled 4% Broken 0 $710

U.S. #2, Paddy, 55/70 Yield (ex-spout) 0 $375Southern Flour Quality Broken Rice 0 $390

Southern Pet Food Quality Broken Rice 0 $350

U.S.A - CALIFORNIAN MEDIUM GRAIN RICE CHANGE PRICE

U.S. #1, 4% Broken 0 $790

U.S. #1 Paddy, 58/69 Yield 0 $490

S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE(FOB FCL)

CHANGE PRICE

Uruguayan 5% Broken 0 $560

Argentine 5% Broken 0 $560

Brazilian 5% Broken -10 $575

Brazilian Broken Rice (1/2 Grain Brokens) -10 $440

EGYPT - WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE

Medium Grain #2 6% Broken - n/a

Medium Grain #3 12% Broken - n/a

Round Grain #2 6% Broken - n/a

Round Grain #3 12% Broken - n/a

Broken Rice Grade 0 10 $450

S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE(FOB FCL)

CHANGE PRICE

Brazilian Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX -10 $610

Uruguayan Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX 10 $610

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN GLUTINOUS RICE CHANGE PRICE

White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken -40 $885

White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken (Sanpathong) -140 $985

White Glutinous Broken Rice A1 0 $790

VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE

5% Broken 13 $568

10% Broken 10 $560

15% Broken 10 $545

25% Broken 5 $510

Broken Rice 15 $465

Live Rice Index


Page 03

B

B

B

B

B

B = INDICATES BENCHMARK

B

Report Date: //

B



The Indonesian tender at the beginning o

the week was supportive or prices but when

Bulog have not conrmed any purchases rom

Thailand, Thai white rice prices returned to a

level closer to that at which they ended the

previous week. Thai oers in the Indonesian

tender were between US $653 - $680 PMT

basis CFR.

White rice prices remain high, with armers

in no rush to sell as they preer to wait and

receive a better price rom the Government

once their rice buying scheme gets underway.

Thai 100% Grade B has settled at US $620 PMT

FOB, with 5% broken white rice standing at

US $600 PMT. Fragrant prices are also rm

and increases have been seen in Pathumthaniand Hom Mali varieties. Pathumthani is now

oered at US $950 and rising on account o

recent ood losses and Hom Mali is oered

at US $1,090 PMT. Prices or glutinous rice

have sotened this week to US $885 PMT or

10% broken. Parboiled prices are soter on

account o the competition aced rom other

exporting origins.

Experts are suggesting that the rice pledging

scheme could potentially end up costing

the Thai Government a staggering Baht 400billion in the rst year alone. The scheme

is one o the most controversial o the new

Government’s implemented policies and

threatens to eectively price the country out

o the rice market or the time being.

CURRENCY THB

1 USD $ 31.08

INVERSE 0.032

Thailand


Page 04

Report Date: //

The country has reduced its orecast or

output rom this year’s main harvest by 2.4%

ollowing the ooding which damaged areas

o armland. Production is now expected to

reach 24.5 million MTS paddy, compared to an

earlier prediction o 25.1 million MTS.

Export Statistics:

Unofcial Thai rice exports rom the

12th o September to the 18th o

September 2011 were 176,227 MTS,

excluding ragrant rice.

Exports o white and glutinous rice

rom 1st o January to the 18th o

September 2011 totalled 8,610,872

MTS. This is an increase o 51.6%

rom the same period last year.

Source: Thai Rice Exporters.

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE

100% Grade B 5 $620

5% Broken 5 $600

10% Broken 5 $595

15% Broken 5 $590

25% Broken 5 $560

A1 Super Broken 0 $490

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE CHANGE PRICE

Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B New 5 $1,090

Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B Old 0 n/aHom Mali White Rice A1 Super 0 $540

Pathumthani Fragrant 100% Grade B 25 $950

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE





THAILAND - LONG GRAIN GLUTINOUS RICE CHANGE PRICE

White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken -40 $885

White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken (Sanpathong) -140 $985

White Glutinous Broken Rice A1 0 $790

B

B

B

B

B



Vietnamese prices are rising steadily, with

5% broken white rice being quoted at US

$568 PMT on an FOB basis and 25% broken

standing at US $510 PMT. Substantial

quantities o 15% broken have been shipped

recently to Cuba, Russia, Bangladesh and East

Timor as well as Indonesia, who purchased

400,000 MTS o 15% white rice. This has

tightened the availabilty o broken rice. Four

Vietnamese companies made oers to Bulog

or a total o 120,000 MTS at US $606 PMT;

however purchases are yet to take place.

Fragrant rice is slightly soter this week,

oered at US $680 PMT basis FOB.

CURRENCY VND

1 USD $ 20,830.00

INVERSE 0.000048

Export Statistics:

From the 1st o January to the 22nd o

September 2011, Vietnam shipped 5.670

million MTS.

Shipments rom the 1st o September to the

22nd o September 2011 reached 352,581 MTS.

Source: VFA

Vietnam

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Page 05

Pakistan

The recent oods have caused a lot o

timing issues and uncertainty or millers

and exporters. The crop in lower Sindh has

suered signicant losses o about 300,000

MTS o paddy this year’s oods with almost

all o the rice grown in Badin has been

completely wiped out. Recently, urther

rains have caused damage to the crops

that are still standing in the elds. Whilst

these losses should be oset by strong

production in upper Sindh and the Punjab

region, or the time being the eect o

these losses is being elt in the market. The

harvest in upper Sindh is not set to com-

mence until mid-October and arrivals rom

Punjab have been slowed by the adverse

weather. In lower Sindh, most o the har-vested rice, which has survived the oods,

needs to be dried out beore it is suitable

or milling and ultimately export. Aside

rom the inevitably high moisture content,

the quality o the crop is very encouraging

with early reports suggesting good colou-

ration and low damage to kernels.

CURRENCY PKR

1 USD $ 87.37

INVERSE 0.0114

Report Date: //

Recent reports have suggested that there

there is a danger that Vietnam could lose

approximately 300,000 hectares o its rice

elds in the next decade to urbanisation i a

Government plan is approved by the country’s

National Assembly in October. The news is a

major concern or a nation in which 70% o its

population earns a living in agriculture.

Export Statistics:Pakistan’s Non-Basmati rice exports rom

the 19th o September to to the 25th o

September amounted to 18,832 MTS, worth

US $9,348,896.

Exports o Basmati rice or the same period

totalled 19,129 MTS worth US $17,885,430.

Consequently, obtaining rice or export

is proving problematic which has some

exporters quoting FOB prices or IRRI-6 5%

white rice at and above the US $500 PMT

level. Those that do have the better quality

rice in their hands are pricing the market

closer to US $480, maintaining competitive

levels with their neighbours in India. De-

mand or exports is coming rom traditional

markets in the Middle East and East Arica.

25% broken white rice is now oered at

levels o around US $440 PMT and 100%

broken rice is priced at US $400 PMT on an

FOB basis.

VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE CHANGE PRICE

Fragrant Rice 5% Broken New -10 $680

Fragrant Rice 5% Broken Old 0 n/a

VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE

5% Broken 13 $568

10% Broken 10 $560

15% Broken 10 $545

25% Broken 5 $510

Broken Rice 15 $465

B

PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE





386 2% Broken 0 n/a

Broken Rice -15 $400

PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE



IRRI-9 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken 0 n/a

PAKISTAN - BASMATI RICE CHANGE PRICE

385 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% - n/a

D-98 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% - n/a

Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2% -10 $1,020

Super Kernel Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% -10 $1,035

B



USA

The market in the South remains rm,

supported by strong domestic demand

and export sales o milled and paddy rice

to traditional destinations such as Haiti, ElSalvador and Mexico. The recent Iraqi ten-

der was unsuccessul or U.S. rice as the

Iraqi Grain Board purchased 30,000 MTS

o long grain white rice rom India. In the

domestic market, a change in program

requirements or the Kansas City Com-

modity Ofce has meant that the recent

tender or 3,800 MTS o #2/7 parboiled

long grain milled rice has been cancelled,

at least or now.

The harvest is all but nished in Louisianaand Texas and Louisiana has recorded

record rice yields, averaging 6,400 pounds

per acre, ar surpassing the previous record

o 6,300 pounds per acre. The challenges

that the crop has aced this year make this

record even more impressive as armers had

to deal with saltwater intrusion and hot,

dry weather. The good eld yields should

go some way to osetting the lost acreage

because only 413,000 acres were planted in

Louisiana this year as opposed to 530,000

acres in 2010, although the milling yields

o the later harvested rice have dropped

signicantly. The harvest is progressing well

enough in Mississippi, Missouri and Arkan-

Export Statistics:

For the period September 16th - 22nd, Net saleso 32,900 MTS were up rom the previous week.

Major buyers were:

Mexico 7,700 MTS

El Salvador 6,300 MTS

Japan 5,500 MTS

Canada 2,900 MTS

Saudi Arabia 3,000 MTS.

Exports or the same period reached 23,600 MTS

and were mainly to:

Guatemala 4,900 MTS

Mexico 4,000 MTS

Canada 2,900 MTS

El Salvador 2,800 MTS

Jordan 2,600 MTS

Source: USDA


Page 06

sas but there are growing concerns or the

late planted rice, which is still maturing in

the elds as the cold weather approaches.

In Caliornia, the harvest is gaining momen-

tum and early reports o yields are positive.

As the harvest o this large crop progresses,

it is certainly sotening the tone o the

market. The USDA has estimated a crop size

o 588,000 acres and strong yields could see

a total production o just below 2.5 million

MTS. In addition to the new crop, there are

a number o bearish actors or the coming

year in the international market, such as

strong anticipated crops in Australia, Egypt

and Southern Europe. With only 6% o thecrop harvested so ar, the mills are yet to

release their pricing or the new crop. For

the time being the paddy market is very

quiet and the undertone o the market is

sot. In terms o new milled business, South

Korea has announced another tender to buy

10,000 MTS o U.S. #1 medium grain rice and

2,747 MTS o U.S. #3 medium grain rice.

Report Date: //

U.S.A. - GULF LONG GRAIN RICE CHANGE PRICE




U.S. #1, Parboiled Milled 4% Broken 0 $710

U.S. #2, Paddy, 55/70 Yield (ex-spout) 0 $375

Southern Flour Quality Broken Rice 0 $390

Southern Pet Food Quality Broken Rice 0 $350

U.S.A - CALIFORNIAN MEDIUM GRAIN RICE CHANGE PRICE

U.S. #1, 4% Broken 0 $790

U.S. #1 Paddy, 58/69 Yield 0 $490



The Mercosur countries are expected to

export a combined estimate 3 million MTS

this year, with the Brazilian Government

this week announcing plans to subsidisethe growth o an additional 3.7 million MTS

o paddy or export as well as animal eed.

All South American particpants missed

out in the recent Iraqi tender (see page 08

or urther details) so the market is a little

soter. FOB prices or milled long grain 5%

broken white rice stand at US $560 PMT

or Argentine and Uruguayan varieties and

US $575 PMT or Brazilian. Parboiled prices

have sotened in Brazil on account o the

competition that they now ace rom India.

Peru particularly have signicantly

increased their imports this year, with

gures o white rice coming into the

country between the months o March and

August reaching 100,000 MTS, an increase

o 300% in comparison to the same period

last year. The majority o these have come

rom Uruguay, although only 56% has

come rom there this year compared to a

95% market share in 2010. Average prices

o the Uruguayan exports were valued

at approximately US $570 PMT on a FOB

basis.

CURRENCY BRL ARS UYU

1 USD $ 1.841 4.201 19.75

In India, IR 64 5% broken white rice is

presently priced at US $480 PMT on an

FOB basis and IR 64 25% broken white

rice is oered at US $435 PMT. Expor tersare struggling to get their hands on good

quality IR 64 5% broken white rice and it

is not until the new crop arrives in mid-

October that we will see exports o higher

quality rice really pick up. The harvest o

this year’s crop is set to be a bumper one,

with around 102 million MTS o paddy

anticipated. This will increase the quality

available within rice stocks, but also serve

to exacerbate the Government’s storage

problems. IR 64 parboiled rice is priced at

the competitive level o US $470 PMT basis

FOB, which should attract potential buyers

away rom other origins.

Many armers within the state o Andhra

Pradesh have reportedly had to leave

part o their rice-growing land allow this

year because o an unviable minimum

support price currently available to them.

Escalating production costs as well as a

shortage o labour has been stated to be

reasons or the armers’ decision, with a

large number o labourers needed during

the paddy transplantation especially.Some rice growers are already switching

to horticultural crops which are not

so labour intensive, however this has

not been possible or wet land owners

within the Konaseema and Karamchedu

regions whose land is only suitable or the

production o paddy.

India

CURRENCY INR

1 USD $ 47.47

INVERSE 0.0211

South America


Page 07

Report Date: //

Reports rom Ecuador suggest that

80,000 MTS o rice has been stored by the

Government or two years at an estimated

value o US $40 million. The Minister o

Agriculture, Staynley Vera, has indicated

that the rice needs to be sold very soon in

order to ree up storage space and create

revenue to produce the next harvest.

A presentation in Buenos Aires this

week outlined the strategic plans o

the Argentine Ministry o Agriculture,

Livestock and Fishing or the next decade.

The plans aim to increase grain production

to more than 160 million MTS annually,

which would represent a growth o 60%.

S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN WHITERICE (FOB FCL)

CHANGE PRICE

Uruguayan 5% Broken 0 $560

Argentine 5% Broken 0 $560Brazilian 5% Broken -10 $575

Brazilian Broken Rice (1/2 Grain Brokens) -10 $440

S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILEDRICE (FOB FCL)

CHANGE PRICE

Brazilian Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX -10 $610

Uruguayan Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX 10 $610

INDIA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE CHANGE PRICE

IR 64 5% Broken -5 $480

IR 64 25% Broken -5 $435

PR 106 5% Broken - n/aPR 106 25% Broken - n/a

1001 / PANT 4 25% Broken - n/a

INDIA - BASMATI RICE CHANGE PRICE

Traditional White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $1,060

Traditional Brown Basmati Rice 2% 0 $950

Tr ad iti ona l P ar boi led Mi lle d B as ma ti Ri ce 2% 0 $9 50

Pusa White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $940

Pusa Brown Basmati Rice 2% 0 $900

Pusa Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $825

1121 White Basmati Rice 2% 0 $1,120

1121 Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 0 $960

INDIA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE CHANGE PRICE

IR 64 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 0 $470

PR 106 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX 0 n/a



The Rest O The World

The Philippines

The Philippines’ rice harvest is expected to grow in the

third quarter o the year in comparison the same periodlast year. Farmers harvested . million MTS o paddy in

the rst hal o , representing a . increase rom

the . million MTS that was achieved in . The coun-

try’s winter rice crop is anticipated to be approximately

bigger this year than last, with . million MTS paddy

basis expected to be harvested. The country is ambitiously

aiming or its imports to not exceed , MTS as it

continues to maximise local production output.

Cambodia The Cambodian Government’s intention to increase ex-

ports could be thwarted ater armers indicated that they

could raise their prices ater the Thai rice-pledging scheme

begins. There are currently no restrictions on exporting

paddy to Thailand or Vietnam and border trade is very

common. Certainly, at the moment, paddy is in thin supply

but this situation will change when the new harvest arrives

in mid-October. Then, millers and exporters will essentially

have to compete with the Thai Government or paddy.

Iraq

The Grain Board o Iraq this week purchased approximately

, MTS o long grain milled broken white rice rom

India, priced at around US PMT basis CFR. This was

ollowing the tender that the country issued on the th o

September.

Ghana

In order to promote the consumption and patronage

o locally produced rice, the National Food Company(NAFCO) is to invest in the purchase o modern rice

mills with the intention o maximising local production.

NAFCO is reportedly working closely with the Ghana-

ian Government to boost the consumption o locally

produced rice within the country. The Government is to

distribute the locally produced rice or use in schools

as it has a higher nutritional value than that o imported

rice.

JapanJapanese Government ofcials have said that they will

be carrying out radiation tests on a wider geographical

area ollowing the discovery o the rst case o radio-

active rice, ound near Nihonmatsu city, kilometres

northwest o the Fukushima nuclear plant. The rice

had a radioactive caesium level o Becquerel’s per

kilogram, which is more than twice the Becquerel’s

per kilogram accepted by the country’s Government.

Radiation inspection areas will now be expanded to

dierent areas. The highest level o radiation that had

been ound previously in the rice crop was Bec-

querel’s per kilogram.


Page 08

Report Date: //

Europe

The high temperatures, low rains and warm nights that

have been seen all over Europe during September havebeen very avourable to the European rice crop. Harvest-

ing has begun in Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal and

Bulgaria but on average only has so ar been cut. New

varieties o Indica crop are surprisingly being harvested

at the same time as the Japonica ones, despite having a

shorter maturity time. Prices or paddy lie between € -

€ PMT or Round grain as well as Indica. Japonica varie-

ties range between € - € PMT, excluding Risotto

types.

IndonesiaBulog held a tender on th inviting oers o up to ,

MTS o Thai and Vietnamese white rice, with a maxi-

mum o , MTS Vietnamese and , MTS Thai per

oer valid or days. Oers were received rom Vietnam

at US PMT and Thailand ranging rom US PMT to

about US PMT. Although nothing have been awarded

we understand that Bulog have rejected the oers rom

Thailand or being too high and as a reaction to their

conrmation that the Thai Public Warehouse Organisa-

tion (PWO) will not be delivering against their contract or

,MTS o broken at a price o about US PMT

C&F shipment through September to December.

Perhaps we should not be surprised that Bulog have now

indicated that they may be open to uture imports rom

India and Pakistan, having overcome their initial reluctance

which was based on concerns o reliability. An Indian del-

egation is expected in Jakarta next week.



Offering A Grain

Of Truth...


Page 09

Report Date: //

jackson son & co - lri - sep 30, 2011

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