13/07/2015 3:28 amJakarta emerges as the US’s go-to friend | The Australian

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Jakarta emerges as the US’s go-to friend

An increasingly powerful Indon esia may supplant Australia in the future as the go-to ally forthe US in the Asia-Pacific region, the new report on ANZUS says.

It calls for the creation of a trilateral security process to militate against potential rifts betweenJakarta, Canberra and Washington. The report, by the Australian National University’s Strategic andDefence Studies Centre and the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies,says a stronger Indonesia is likely to attract far greater interest from Washington — to the extent thatJakarta would, over time, become a competitor with Canberra for US attention. “Under such ascenario, US expectations of Australia might actually diminish,” the report says.

It also cites the concern — raised by influential foreign policy analyst Michael Wesley — that if theUS seeks to build Indonesian military capabilities as a bulwark against Chinese power, Australia mayfeel less enamoured of the US.

“Conversely, history suggests that there is no guarantee that Washington will side with Canberra intimes of crisis involving Indonesia — particularly an Indonesia whose geostrategic importance isperceived to be on the rise,” it says.

As an example, during the late 1960s the US refused to back Australian opposition to Indonesia’sannexation of West Papua for fear of driving Jakarta straight into the arms of Beijing.

THE AUSTRALIAN

BRENDAN NICHOLSON THE AUSTRALIAN JULY 13, 2015 12:00AM

Indonesian President Joko Widodo, left, with military commanders. Source: AFP

13/07/2015 3:28 amJakarta emerges as the US’s go-to friend | The Australian

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In 1999, calls from Canberra for the provision of US “boots on the ground’’ during the crisis in EastTimor went unheeded.

The strategic shifts raised in the report would fundamentally alter the ANZUS alliance and, as itsays, may well require a new trilateral security arrangement to try to serve each nation’s interests.

“For Washington, it would be consistent with its larger goal of broadening and deepening its strategicpartnerships in the Asia-Pacific while also providing a mechanism for more directly stabilising thesometimes-shaky Australia-Indonesia bilateral relation ship,’’ the report says.

“For Jakarta, it would afford the possibility of playing a more prominent role on the internationalstage consistent with its growing economic weight, while also remain ing true to its traditionally non-aligned posture given that the grouping would not constitute a formal alliance relationship. ForCanberra, the grouping would serve as an additional means of supporting its longstanding objectiveof ensuring close and consistent US engagement in the Asia-Pacific, while also providing anadditional avenue for deepening security co-operation with Indon esia.

“As Indonesia’s economic and strategic importance continues to grow over … decades, such adeepening in co-operation seems likely to become increasingly desirable for Canberra as analternative to a more difficult and competitive relation ship with Jakarta.”

The report says Australia, Indonesia and the US confront complex bilateral relationships with a risingChina, which could be discussed within this grouping.

It says Australia’s ability to police the maritime approaches to its northern shores will also beincreas ingly important.

“Chinese projection of power through the Indian Ocean along the Maritime Silk Road mustnecessarily pass through the Indonesian archipelago,’’ the report says. “As a result, close co-operati-on with Indonesia, Singapore and others may be required to monitor the movements of regionalmilitaries.”

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