janet larsen, director of research may 2008
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Growing Food Insecurity Food-to-Fuel and Other Challenges. Janet Larsen, Director of Research May 2008. Corn Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008. Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com. Wheat Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Janet Larsen, Director of ResearchMay 2008
Growing Food InsecurityFood-to-Fuel and Other Challenges
Corn Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008
Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com
Wheat Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008
Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com
Soybean Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008
Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com
Rice Prices, 1985 – 2008(Monthly 100% Grade B)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Aug-85 Apr-88 Jan-91 Oct-93 Jul-96 Apr-99 Jan-02 Sep-04 Jun-07 Mar-10
Apr 08
Source: USDA ERS
Dol
lars
per
Ton
Food Price Unrest Around the WorldSeptember 2007 – May
2008
Compiled by Earth Policy Institute
Top Grain Top Grain ExportersExporters
Quantity (million Quantity (million tons)tons)
United StatesUnited States 106.1106.1
ArgentinaArgentina 28.128.1
CanadaCanada 18.618.6
E.U.E.U. 14.314.3
RussiaRussia 13.113.1
AustraliaAustralia 10.610.6
ThailandThailand 9.39.3
KazakhstanKazakhstan 9.09.0
BrazilBrazil 8.78.7
VietnamVietnam 5.05.0
Top Corn Top Corn ExportersExporters
Quantity (million Quantity (million tons)tons)
United StatesUnited States 62.062.0
ArgentinaArgentina 15.015.0
BrazilBrazil 9.09.0
ParaguayParaguay 1.61.6
UkraineUkraine 1.21.2
ChinaChina 1.01.0
South AfricaSouth Africa 0.80.8
IndiaIndia 0.50.5
CanadaCanada 0.40.4
E.U.E.U. 0.30.3
Top Wheat Top Wheat ExportersExporters
Quantity (million Quantity (million tons)tons)
United StatesUnited States 32.532.5
CanadaCanada 14.514.5
RussiaRussia 12.012.0
ArgentinaArgentina 11.011.0
E.U.E.U. 9.09.0
AustraliaAustralia 8.08.0
KazakhstanKazakhstan 8.08.0
UkraineUkraine 5.25.2
ChinaChina 2.52.5
TurkeyTurkey 1.51.5
Top Rice Top Rice ExportersExporters
Quantity (million Quantity (million tons)tons)
ThailandThailand 9.09.0
VietnamVietnam 5.05.0
United StatesUnited States 3.53.5
IndiaIndia 3.43.4
PakistanPakistan 2.92.9
ChinaChina 1.31.3
EgyptEgypt 1.11.1
UruguayUruguay 0.80.8
ArgentinaArgentina 0.50.5
CambodiaCambodia 0.50.5
Red circles indicate export restrictions in place as of May 2008
Source: EPI, USDA, FT
Top Ten Grain Importers: Share of Consumption from Imports
Source: USDA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Taiwan Yemen Cuba J apan Malaysia SouthKorea
SaudiArabia
Colombia Algeria Tunisia
World Grainland Area
500
550
600
650
700
750
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: USDA
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
World Grainland Area Per Person
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: USDA, UN
Hect
are
s
World Irrigated Area
Source: FAO, Worldwatch
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
World Irrigated Area Per Person
Source: FAO, Worldwatch, UN
Squ
are
Met
ers
0
100
200
300
400
500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
World Grain Yield Annual Increase by Decade
Source: USDA, Worldwatch
1950-1960
1990-2000
1980-1990
1970-1980
1960-1970
2000-2007
Ave
rage
Ann
ual I
ncre
ase
(per
cent
)
World Grain Balance
Source: USDA
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mill
ion
Ton
s
Production
Consumption
World Grain Carryover Stocks
Source: USDA
Mill
ion
Ton
s
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
World Grain Carryover Stocks as Days of Consumption
Source: USDA
Day
s
U.S. Grain Use for Fuel Ethanol
2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth Policy Institute
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: EPI, USDA, RFA
Mill
ion
Ton
s
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
U.S. Grain Production and Use for Ethanol
*
* 2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth Policy Institute
Mill
ion
Ton
s
Source: EPI, USDA, RFA
Grain Production
Grain for Ethanol
Gasoline and Ethanol in the United States
Ethanol supplied less than 4% of gasoline consumption in 2007…
… but used 20% of the U.S. grain harvest.
Source: EPI, USDA, EIA
For more information:
Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2008), www.earthpolicy.org.
C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2007.
Financial Times, The Global Food Crisis, interactive map, www.ft.com.
The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index 2007,” Foreign Policy, July/August 2007.
U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, no. 2, April 2008.
Robert B. Zoellick, President of the World Bank Group, “A Challenge of Economic Statecraft,” Speech at the Center for Global Development (Washington, DC: 2 April 2008).
ReferencesChicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Market Recap Reports, at www.cbot.com.
Lester R. Brown, “World Facing Huge New Challenge on Food Front,” Plan B Update, 16 April 2008, with additional information at www.earthpolicy.org.
Financial Times (FT), “The Rising Cost of Food,” www.ft.com/foodprices, updated 5 May 2008.
Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), “Ethanol Biorefinery Locations,” at www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/locations.
U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAOSTAT, electronic database at faostat.fao.org.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production Supply and Distribution, electronic database at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), Rice Yearbook 2007 (Washington, DC: November 2007).
USDA, Feedgrains Database, electronic database at www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FeedGrains.
U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA), Biofuels in the U.S. Transportation Sector, at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/biomass.html.
www.earthpolicy.orgwww.earthpolicy.org