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January 26, 2019Gulfstream Park

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Meet the Top Pegasus World Cup ContendersBy Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com

Accelerate: The defending Breeders’ Cup Classic champ has history on his side in the Pegasus

World Cup as the prior two ‘Classic’ winners, Arrogate and Gun Runner, added the Pegasus trophy

to their mantel the following year. In the Breeders’ Cup, Accelerate overcame both a star-studded

field and the far-outside post position (#14) to give trainer John Sadler his first Breeders’ Cup win

after starting his career 0-for-44 in the World Championships.

City of Light: The ‘other’ Breeders’ Cup winner in the field, City of Light trounced a field of nine

in the Dirt Mile to punch his ticket to the Pegasus World Cup. This Mike McCarthy-trained son of

2010 Donn Handicap winner Quality Road holds the distinction of being the only horse to beat

Accelerate last year, which he did in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap in April. He’ll be ridden by

5-time Gulfstream leading jockey, Javier Castellano.

Audible: Conditioned by Gulfstream Park leading trainer, Todd Pletcher, Audible won last year’s

Grade 1 Xpressbet Florida Derby en route to a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby.

After getting the summer off, he returned to win a stakes race at Churchill before a shocking defeat

in the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. His ability to get back to the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle

is in the hands of Flavien Prat, who rides for the first time.

Gunnevera: One of two horses back for another try at the Pegasus (the other being Seeking the

Soul), Gunnevera ran third in last year’s race and, by all accounts, is doing ‘better than ever’ in his

Pegasus preparations. His 2018 campaign was highlighted by runner-up performances in both the

Breeders’ Cup Classic and Grade 1 Woodward Stakes and, given his impressive record at Gulfstream

Park (9 races, 4 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds), he’s sure to run another solid race here.

Kukulkan (MEX): Despite being 14-for-14 in his career and the Mexican Triple Crown winner,

Kukulkan will be a longshot in the Pegasus World Cup. He won the Caribbean Classic at Gulfstream

on December 8 by more than 10-lengths, but many handicappers will question his ability to

compete with the best horses in the world as the final time that day – 1:54.80 for 1 1/8 miles – is

more than seven seconds slower than the winning time in the prior two editions of the Pegasus.

Bravazo: Trained by Hall of Fame conditioner, D. Wayne Lukas, Bravazo enters the Pegasus World

Cup with three wins in 16 career starts and more than $1.3 million in earnings. He finished second

in three Grade 1 races last year – the Preakness, Haskell and Clark Handicap – and will be ridden by

2-time Gulfstream Park leading jockey, Luis Saez.

Meet the Top Pegasus World Cup Turf ContendersBy Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com

Magic Wand (IRE): Coolmore’s Magic Wand will represent Ireland in the Pegasus World Cup Turf as

she makes her second trip to the United States. In November she finished 4th, beaten less than 3-lengths,

in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and prior to that she was runner-up in a pair of Group 1 races

in France – the Prix de l’Opera and the Prix Vermeille. She’s trained by all-world conditioner, Aidan

O’Brien, and her sire, Galileo, is widely regarded as the world’s most influential stallion.

Aerolithe (JPN): Representing Japan in the Pegasus World Cup Turf is Aerolithe, a five-year-old

daughter of Kurofune. Aerolithe has finished first or second in 9-of-13 races, with her top victories

coming in the Group 1 NHK Mile Cup in 2017 and the Group 2 Mainichi Okan last October. She

arrived at Gulfstream Park on January 14, ensuring plenty of time to acclimate to the South Florida

weather and surroundings.

Catapult: Arguably the best of the American contingent, Catapult finished second, beaten just a

half-length, in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last November. Prior to the Breeders’ Cup, Catapult won a

pair of Grade 2 races at Del Mar – the Del Mar Mile and Eddie Read Stakes – with the ‘Read victory

coming at a distance of 1 1/8-miles, which is close to the Pegasus Turf’s 1 3/16-mile distance. Like

Accelerate in the Pegasus World Cup, he is trained by John Sadler.

Next Shares: Next Shares burst onto the scene last fall with back-to-back victories in Kentucky,

including a shocking 23/1 upset of the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. Following a 13th

place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, he returned to his ‘home base’ in Southern California to win

the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes at Santa Anita. He is owned by a partnership that includes Michael

Iavarone of Big Brown and Court Vision fame.

Yoshida: Japanese-bred and American-raced, Yoshida is a dual-surface star, having won Grade 1

races on both the turf and dirt in 2018. He won the Turf Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs on the

Kentucky Derby undercard in May and captured the Grade 1 Woodward on the dirt at Saratoga in

September. Most recently he finished 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His trainer, Bill Mott, won

the precursor for this race, the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, a record five times.

Channel Maker: The second entrant from Bill Mott’s barn, Channel Maker developed into a

premier older turf horse in 2018 with victories in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont

and the Grade 2 Bowing Green Stakes at Saratoga. His resurgence nearly directly coincides with an

adjusted running style. Previously a deep closer, Channel Maker now employs a ‘catch me if you

can’ frontrunning approach.

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Top 4 Picks

1. STORMY LIBERAL

2. WORLD OF TROUBLE

3. OAK BLUFFS

4. SINGANDCRYINDUBAI

Analysis: STORMY LIBERAL and WORLD OF TROUBLE were two of the stars of the

Breeders’ Cup as they duked it out down the stretch in the World Championships, well clear

of the rest of the field. The wily veteran, STORMY LIBERAL, got the best of the youngster,

WORLD OF TROUBLE, that day, but you have to wonder if a passing of the torch is getting

close. This race absolutely goes through those two horses and your betting strategies

should employ using each of them heavily. They’re both worth using in your multi-race

bets, but there probably won’t be enough value to weigh them equally in your Exactas and

Trifectas. The potential payouts simply won’t merit boxing them, so pick your preferred

runner and play accordingly. Use the other on top merely as a saver, if at all.

Main Contenders: If this field was void of other frontrunners, WORLD OF TROUBLE would

be a cinch. This race is a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and

STORMY LIBERAL barely caught him in that day. Problem is, PAY AND PRICE and RECRUITING

READY have entered and both of those horses have speed and are drawn to WORLD OF

TROUBLE’s outside. There won’t be any easy lead Saturday. If one of those horses softens

WORLD OF TROUBLE up, STORMY LIBERAL has the talent to chase him down again. He’s

a perfect 4-for-4 at this distance and he looks like the right horse to pick on top.

Value Plays: It’s hard to envision any horse besides STORMY LIBERAL or WORLD OF

TROUBLE winning this, so I’ll focus on underneath horses. OAK BLUFFS has a great

record at Gulfstream Park and in turf sprints and he’s going to get a pace to chase. He

should finish in the top three or four. SINGANDCRYINDUBAI moves to the potent barn

of Jorge Navarro and should take a jump forward off that trainer change.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $15 Trifecta: STORMY LIBERAL over WORLD OF TROUBLE over

SINGANDCRYINDUBAI, OAK BLUFFS, LITTLE CHESNEY, PAY ANY PRICE and

RECRUITING READY ($75)

• $5 Trifecta: WORLD OVER TROUBLE over STORMY LIBERAL over

SINGANDCRYINDUBAI, OAK BLUFFS, LITTLE CHESNEY, PAY ANY PRICE and

RECRUITING READY ($25)

Breeders’ Cup Rematch Highlights Pegasus Undercard By Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com @Xpressbet

Gulfstream ParkSprint Stakes $150,0004YO+ – 5 Furlongs (Turf)

Stats & Trends

Last Five GP Turf Sprint Winners:Year Horse Jockey2018 Rainbow Heir I. Ortiz Jr. 2017 Power Alert (AUS) J. Leparoux2016 Power Alert (AUS) J. Leparoux2015 Amelia’s Wild Ride J. Lezcano2014 Wicked Tune E. Trujillo

GP Turf Sprint Snapshot:(Since 2010)Stakes Record: :54.17 (Varsity, 2013) Largest Win Margin: 2 Lengths (Rainbow Heir, 2018)Winning Favorites: 1 (11.1%)Wire-to-Wire Winners: 1 (11.1%)Average Win Odds: 4.69/1Average Exacta ($2): $89.84Average Trifecta ($1): $351.54

Know ThisIt’s Wide Open: Favorites have dropped seven straight editions of the GP Turf Sprint and they’ve failed to finish in the Exacta every year since 2012. Last year’s favorite, Pay Any Price, finished 8th.

No Closers Needed: While just one horse has taken the GP Turf Sprint in wire-to-wire fashion, just one of this race’s nine winners was more than 2 ½-lengths out of first at any point of call. Key your wagers around horses that will be racing near the front.

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1 1/2 Miles Turf

Top 4 Picks

1. PAINTING CORNERS

2. BLUE BAHIA

3. MORTICIA

4. SURRENDER NOW

Justify Meets ExpectationsBy Steve Byk, At the Races (SiriusXM)@Steve_Byk

Ladies’ Turf Sprint Stakes $150,000Fillies & Mares – 4YO+ – 5 Furlongs (Turf)

Stats & Trends

Last Five Ladies’ Turf Sprint Winners:Year Horse Jockey2018 Girls Know Best J. Castellano 2017 Pretty Perfection N. Juarez2016 Lady Shipman I. Ortiz Jr.2015 Jewel of a Cat P. Lopez2014 Believe in Charlie J. Castellano

Ladies’ Turf Sprint Snapshot:(Since 2010)Stakes Record: :53.75 (Starfish Bay, 2010) Largest Win Margin: 2 3/4 Lengths (Lady Shipman, 2016 & Starfish Bay, 2010)Winning Favorites: 4 (50%)Wire-to-Wire Winners: 5 (62.5%)Average Win Odds: 5.68/1Average Exacta ($2): $87.67Average Trifecta ($1): $400.34

Know ThisNeed for Speed: Including last year’s winner Girls Know Best, five of the eight total editions of this race have been by the early pacesetter. Take advantage of this trend and start your handicapping with fillies and mares that are quickest out of the starting gate.

Terrific Trifectas: In each of the last six years, at least one filly or mare has finished in the Ladies’ Turf Sprint Trifecta at double-digit odds, including two last year. In the race’s history, the average $1 Trifecta payout is $400.34.

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Analysis: A field of 10 fleet fillies will clash here with tons of pace on paper, but we are

lacking a clear-cut stand-out on form or class. Because of that, it’s probably safest to

cover both the front-end runners and a closer in terms of pace.

Main Contenders: PAINTING CORNERS comes in for Peter Miller, who can flat-out

train a turf sprinter. He’s won the past 2 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints with Stormy Liberal,

after all. I prefer her to the stable mate SURRENDER NOW because PAINTING CORNERS

is versatile and draws close enough inside (post 3) to get a great trip no matter what

should unfold. She also has a class edge as she is one of only two fillies in here with

a graded-stakes placing in their last few outs. MORTICIA has been my go-to girl at 5

panels on the sod. Very consistent performer can’t be left off if you’re playing exotics

and, hey, she might jump up and win.

Value Plays: BLUE BAHIA has the edge of familiarity with a 7: 3-1-1 Gulfstream Park turf

course resume, but hasn’t delivered lately and is plagued by layoff lines. She’s 6-1 in the

morning line, but may go lower.


• $16 Exacta Box: PAINTING CORNERS, BLUE BAHIA and MORTICIA ($96)

• $2 Exacta Part-Wheel: PAINTING CORNERS with BLUE BAHIA and MORTICIA ($4)

Miller Time heads to Gulfstream By Michelle Yu, Santa Anita @TheMichelleYu



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Top 4 Picks

1. CAPLA TEMPTRESS

2. ROAD TO VICTORY

3. DOLCE LILI

4. FIRE KEY


South Beach Stakes $125,000Fillies & Mares – 4YO + – 7 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

Stats & Trends

Last Five South Beach Winners:Year Horse Jockey2018 Stormy Victoria (FR) J. Rosario 2016 Neck of the Moon P. Lopez2015 Tuttipaesi (IRE) C. DeCarlo2014 Marbre Rose (IRE) L. Saez2013 Baffle Me J. Castellano

South Beach Snapshot:(Since 2009)Stakes Record (7.5F): 1:27.28 (Raw Silk, 2009) Largest Win Margin: 4 3/4 Lengths (Way With Words, 2010)Winning Favorites: 1 (10%)Wire-to-Wire Winners: 3 (30%)Average Win Odds: 4.50/1Average Exacta ($2): $74.02Average Trifecta ($1): $240.97

Know ThisShare the Wealth: Favorites are just 1-for-10 in the decade-old South Beach and every Trifecta since 2010 has paid at least $114.

Trust in Christophe: Christophe Clement has started six horses in the South Beach and none has finished worse than third. His dominance was on full display last year as his starters finished 1-2 and returned a $30 Exacta.

Play Paco:If Paco Lopez has a mount in this year’s South Beach, look out! He leads all jockeys with three wins in this race and has amassed an impressive $5.30 Win ROI.

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Analysis: Quoting ancient philosopher Lebron James (c. 2010, “The Decision”), I’m

taking my talents to South Beach in search of cash on the Pegasus World Cup Day

undercard. Distaff turf stakes are supposed to be reserved space for Chad Brown’s

leading ladies. But, alas, he’s absent. Also absent are the charges of Christophe

Clement, who ran 1-2 in this race a year ago. But if you think that means this race blows

wide open, you might want to call a timeout.

Main Contenders: CAPLA TEMPTRESS poses a highly formidable threat for Bill

Mott, who is 3-for-4 at the meet in turf stakes. He won the G3 My Charmer with CAPLA

TEMPTRESS, while also posting $17 and $27 scores in the Allen Jerkens and Kitten’s

Joy. This filly added Lasix in her most recent win while reuniting with Joel Rosario, who

partnered with her in her 2017 G1 Natalma score. Rosario won last year’s South Beach in

last-to-first fashion with My Charmer third-place finisher Stormy Victoria, and he’ll try to

employ similar tactics behind a pace that looks very fast. It’s reasonable to argue the top

trio of contenders are drawn widest. ROAD TO VICTORY (post 12), CAPLA TEMPTRESS

(13) and ANDINA DEL SUR (14) will need to carve out trips. ROAD TO VICTORY teams with

Irad Ortiz, Jr., whom the Betmix database shows with a ridiculous 28% win rate in GP 7-1/2

furlong turf races since the start of 2018 (from almost 100 mounts).

Value Plays: DOLCE LILI will be the “other” Mott trainee and could get overlooked in

her first southern foray. She’s 7-for-7 in the money for this barn and sire Scat Daddy’s

offspring have a solid 18% win rate on the GP lawn and $1.21 ROI for each $1 bet since

the start of the 2015 Championship Meet. FIRE KEY stretches out in distance after facing

elite turf sprinters Girls Know Best and Morticia, a better-than-it-looks company line.


• $60 Exacta: CAPLA TEMPTRESS over ROAD TO VICTORY ($60)

• $20 Exacta Part-Wheel: CAPLA TEMPTRESS over DOLCE LILI and FIRE KEY ($40)

Handicappers ’Tempted’ to South BeachJeremy Plonk, Xpressbet.com @Horseplayernow

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1 1/2 Miles Turf

Top 4 Picks

1. SHAMROCK ROSE

2. BLAMED

3. DREAM PAULINE

4. STORY EMBRACE


Fasig-Tipton Hurricane Bertie StakesGrade 3 - $150,000Fillies & Mares – 4YO+ – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

Stats & Trends

Last Five Hurricane Bertie Winners:Year Horse Jockey2018 Jordan’s Henny T. Gaffalione 2017 Curlin’s Approval L. Saez2015 Merry Meadow J. Castellano2014 Groupie Doll R. Maragh2013 Golden Mystery L. Saez

Hurricane Bertie Snapshot:(Since 2001)Stakes Record: 1:22.77 (Sugar Swirl, 2008) Largest Win Margin: 8 3/4 Lengths (Sugar Swirl, 2008)Winning Favorites: 10 (58.8%)Wire-to-Wire Winners: 6 (35.3%)Average Win Odds: 5.58/1Average Exacta ($2): $52.54Average Trifecta ($1): $176.63

Know ThisStatistical Anomaly? Last year’s edition of the Hurricane Bertie, won by 59/1 longshot Jordan’s Henny, produced the largest Win ($120), Exacta ($449) and Trifecta ($1,804) payouts in the race’s history. The previous highs were $14, $51 and $239, respectively.

Favorites Factor: Despite last year’s upset, favorites have won 10-of-17 editions of the Hurricane Bertie, including four of the last five. No favorite has finished out of the Trifecta since 2005.

Runaway Winners:The finish line can take this one off. In 17 runnings of the Hurricane Bertie, the average margin of victory is more than 3-lengths. Just four times has the margin been 1-length or less.

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Analysis: To finish out her 2018 campaign, SHAMROCK ROSE strung together four

consecutive victories in a streak that culminated with a thoroughly deserving victory at

25-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She’s always been a high-quality filly – she

was a stakes-winner in her debut as a 2-year-old – and there’s every expectation that

the Mark Casse-trained filly, with only 10 career races on her resume, will with added

experience and maturity become even more dominant in her division. Perfect in two

starts at today’s seven-furlong trip and with a history of winning off a short layoff, the

daughter First Dude should simply outclass her Grade 3 competition.

Main Contenders: Though she was beaten on the square by SHAMROCK ROSE

when second in the G2 Raven Run at this distance last fall, the lightly-raced BLAMED

hardly needs to concede the Hurricane Bertie. Like her chief rival, the Bill Mott-trained

filly is bred to get better and stronger as a 4-year-old and has proven to be the quicker

of the two leaving the gate. Today’s pace scenario appears soft, and that should allow

the daughter of Blame to inherit the role as the controlling speed, though she certainly

doesn’t need the lead to win. Here’s an interesting stat: in every one of her eight starts,

her speed figures have increased. DREAM PAULINE has been beaten just once in four

starts and she, too, hasn’t likely reached her ceiling. This will be her first start past six

furlongs; the extra distance should help, not hurt.

Value Plays: STORY EMBRACE was no match for SHAMROCK ROSE on Breeders’

Cup Day – at 44-1 she didn’t figure to be – but if you’re looking for a price chance

underneath in the vertical exotics, this veteran mare fits the bill. A four-time winner over

the Gulfstream Park main track including last summer’s Princess Rooney Stakes by six

lengths at 15-1, she should have every chance to duplicate that performance from her

comfortable outside draw.


• $40 Win: SHAMROCK ROSE ($40)

• $18 Exacta Box: SHAMROCK ROSE and BLAMED ($36)

• $2 Exacta Box: SHAMROCK ROSE, BLAMED and DREAM PAULINE ($12)

This Shamrock has SkillJeff Siegel, XBTV @jsiegelracing



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Top 4 Picks

1. SANTA MONICA

2. HOLY HELENA

3. ENGLISH AFFAIR

4. TOP CATS (ARG)


La Prevoyante Stakes Grade 3 - $200,000Fillies & Mares – 4YO+ – 1 1/2 Miles (Turf)

Stats & Trends

Last Five La Prevoyante Winners:Year Horse Jockey2018 Texting J. Castellano 2017 Suffused (GB) J. Ortiz2016 Goldy Espony (FR) J. Castellano2015 Irish Mission J. Velazquez2014 Closing Range E. Trujillo

La Prevoyante Snapshot:(Since 1991)Stakes Record: 2:25.20 (Singular Bequest, 1988) Largest Win Margin: 4 3/4 Lengths (Abigailthewife, 1994)Winning Favorites: 13 (50%)Wire-to-Wire Winners: 5 (19.2%)Average Win Odds: 4.71/1Average Exacta ($2): $70,93Average Trifecta ($1): $298.84

Know ThisSmooth Sailing: Frontrunners have won five of the last 11 editions of the race and last year’s pacesetter, Daring Duchess, finished second at odds of 5/1.

Chalk Talks: Favorites have won three of the last four editions of the race. Despite their dominance, the average $2 Exacta and $1 Trifecta have returned $74 and $244, respectively.

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Analysis: Twelve fillies and mares signed up for Gulfstream Park’s turf marathon, the

G3 La Prevoyante. You can make a case for a handful of these females to excel at

the distance based on pedigree, but ‘proven’ form is high on my criteria. Regardless

of whether they are bred for a mile and one-half, it takes a certain kind to be able to

switch off quickly, yet still unleash a powerful turn of foot when the time is right.

Main Contenders: Chad Brown has earned, on average, $16 million per year over the

last four years with grass runners. That makes him a main contender! Surprisingly, bettors

were still able to capitalize on Brown in this race in 2018. His mare Texting paid $16.80, but

it’s highly improbable we are gifted this scenario again. SANTA MONICA is second choice

on the morning line and exits by far the strongest race. Her performance in the BC Filly and

Mare Turf was disheartening, but she ran off short rest and on unfavorable turf conditions, so

I’m willing to ignore. This usually very consistent mare is proven at the distance and drew in

light (119 pounds). When afforded a legitimate pace, she has a dynamite kick. HOLY HELENA

(as first Lasix) was arguably best in the Via Borghese. While trapped on the rail, SI QUE ES

BUENA got the jump on her, and with even weights she simply couldn’t make up the ground

in time. HOLY HELENA galloped out way in front of the winner and this, together with

her victory in the Sheepshead Bay, quashes any doubt I have over distance.

Value Plays: ENGLISH AFFAIR has been brought along conservatively by trainer Rusty

Arnold and it appears to be paying off. She overcame trouble in the G3 Cardinal, thanks

to her ability to quicken. She appears very handy, which I believe bodes well over this

trip. TOP CATS (ARG) carried the field as far as she could off a 4-month gap between

races in the Via Borghese and came up short. It appeared Julian Leparoux chose to ride

TOP CATS (ARG) that day over a former winning mount, Peru, and he sticks with this

front runner stretching out. Based on his confidence, I go against my judgment of her

pedigree being suspect for a mile and one-half and will use her underneath.


• $20 Exacta part-wheel: SANTA MONICA with HOLY HELENA, ENGLISH AFFAIR,

TOP CATS (ARG), SI QUE ES BUENA ($80)

• $20 Win: ENGLISH AFFAIR ($20)

Santa Monica Poised for First US Stakes WinBy Millie Ball, XBTV @camillayakteen



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Top 4 Picks

1. COAL FRONT

2. BREAKING LUCKY

3. AZTEC SENSE

4. UNBRIDLED JUAN


Fred W. Hooper Stakes Grade 3 - $150,000 4YO+ – 1 Mile (Dirt)

Stats & Trends

Last Five Fred W. Hooper Winners:Year Horse Jockey2018 Tommy Macho J. Rosario 2017 Bird Song J. Leparoux2016 Tommy Macho L. Saez2015 Valid P. Lopez2013 Csaba L. Saez

Fred W. Hooper Snapshot:(Since 1992)Stakes Record (8F): 1:33.53 (Tommy Macho, 2016) Largest Win Margin: 3 3/4 Lengths (Tommy Macho, 2016)Winning Favorites: 8 (29.6%)Wire-to-Wire Winners: 6 (22.2%)Average Win Odds: 8.61/1Average Exacta ($2): $128.37Average Trifecta ($1): $295.28

Know ThisFind ‘Course’ Horses: One-mile dirt races at Gulfstream Park are run around one turn. When handicapping the Fred W. Hooper, look for horses that have had success in one-turf ‘extended sprint’ races at 7 furlongs or a mile. Tracks with a similar ‘one-turn mile’ configuration are Belmont, Churchill, Aqueduct and Laurel. One-mile races at Santa Anita, Del Mar, Gulfstream Park West, Monmouth, Fair Grounds and Oaklawn are contested around two-turns.

Pletcher Rules: Since the Fred W. Hooper moved from Calder to Gulfstream in 2015, trainer Todd Pletcher has amassed an impressive 5 – 2 – 1 – 1 record with his starters. Both of his wins came with Tommy Macho.

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Analysis: This Grade 3 has attracted 10 runners, mostly age 6 or older—a pair of

5-year-olds and one 4-year-old. Like with your favorite tavern, checking IDs at the door

is a valuable handicapping exercise. While it’s ok to anticipate generous improvement

in younger horses, don’t expect performance leaps in those older than 5. The lone

4-year-old in this race EYE OF THE JEDI seems overmatched, and the remaining pair

of 5-year-olds hails from the Todd Pletcher stable. They are race favorite COAL FRONT

and the lightly-raced COPPER TOWN. Pace figures to be lively with COAL FRONT and

AZTEC SENSE providing fireworks up front, but they also seem the most likely winners.

Main Contenders: COAL FRONT deserves favoritism off a resume that includes victory

last out in the G3 Mr. Prospector going 7 furlongs at Gulfstream Park. He won by nearly

4 lengths and notched a suitable speed rating. That was his fifth win in 7 career starts.

He’s trained by the track’s all-time leading conditioner and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey

Johnny Velazquez. AZTEC SENSE has been an amazing claim since being haltered at Parx

in August of 2017 for $12,500. He’s won 8 in a row (10 of the last 11) and over $400,000!

His meteoric ascent is notable, but this G3 challenge is by far his biggest yet. Like COAL

FRONT, he’s got speed, a top trainer (24% wins) and a solid jockey (22% wins). Will his raw

speed be enough to outrun and to outlast a younger, lightly-raced, talented upstart?

Value Plays: COAL FRONT seems a likely winner and has credentials validate strong

mutuel support. He’s drawn inside of AZTEC SENSE, and that’s not ideal, but they should

have things to themselves up front early. There’s no value in a COAL FRONT/AZTEC

SENSE exacta, so we’ll look elsewhere to fill exotic slots. BREAKING LUCKY enters off

a romping 9-plus length win in a Gulfstream allowance race. He’s fit, sharp and the

7-year-old has faced better competition in the past. UNBRIDLED JUAN has been in the

money in his last 6 starts and has the right style to fill exotics. STORM ADVISORY didn’t

run badly when a well-beaten second to COAL FRONT last out.


• $16 Trifecta Key: COAL FRONT with BREAKING LUCKY, AZTEC SENSE and

UNBRIDLED JUAN ($96)

• $4 Exacta: COAL FRONT with BREAKING LUCKY ($4)

Coal Front Threatens from the FrontBy Johnny D., Xpressbet @XBJohnnyD



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Top 4 Picks

1. CANESSAR (FR)

2. ZULU ALPHA

3. HUNTING HORN (IRE)

4. HIGHLAND SKY


W.L. McKnight Stakes Grade 3 - $200,0004YO+ – 1 1/2 Miles (Turf)

Stats & Trends

Last Five W.L. McKnight Winners:Year Horse Jockey2018 Oscar Nominated J. Ortiz 2017 Taghleeb T. Gaffalione2015 Charming Kitten J. Velazquez2014 Divine Oath J. Castellano2013 Twilight Eclipse J. Lezcano

W.L. McKnight Snapshot:(Since 1991)Stakes Record (12F): 2:24.11 (Flag Down, 1995) Largest Win Margin: 7 Lengths (Stolen Rolls, 1991)Winning Favorites: 8 (28.6%)Wire-to-Wire Winners: 4 (14.3%)Average Win Odds: 9.08/1Average Exacta ($2): $178.55Average Trifecta ($1): $977.37

Know ThisStacks of Cash: Statistically, the W.L. McKnight is your best chance to hit big on Pegasus Day. Since 1991, the race has produced higher average Win ($20), Exacta ($178) and Trifecta ($977) payouts than any other race on the card.

Missing: Favorites: Since 1999, the W.L. McKnight has been run on the turf 16 times and favorites have won just twice (12.5%). The average winner during that span paid nearly $23 for a $2 Win bet!

Photo Finish:Five of the last six turf editions of the W.L. McKnight were decided by a length or less. Last year, Oscar Nominated held off late rallies by Nessy, Bullards Alley and Gold Shield. The four horses were separated by just 3/4-length at the wire.

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Analysis: This race is normally a toss-up and this year appears to be no different. Amazingly,

none of the 14 horses drawn into the main body of the field (there are also two AEs) enters

off a win. How crazy is that? For my handicapping, I’m looking for horses that are going

to sit close to the pace, as it looks as though they could be crawling early. Mike Maker has

entered a trio of horses and has an Ortiz Brother named on his two big shots. Last year, Maker

and Jose Ortiz teamed to win this race with Oscar Nominated, and this year they partner with

9-2 ML second choice SOGLIO. Maker has named Jose’s brother, Irad, to ride 4-1 ML favorite

ZULU ALPHA. Both of these horses has good early speed and should be forwardly placed.

Main Contenders: CANESSAR has been off more than 6 months. We haven’t seen him

since he finished second, beaten just a neck, in Arlington Park’s G3 Stars and Stripes Stakes

in July. He will require a little bit of pace, as he does his running from farther back than

some of the other main contenders in here, but Arnaud Delacour is a 28% trainer when

running a fresh horse off a 90+ day layoff and it never hurts to have Javier Castellano

in the irons. ZULU ALPHA had won two straight races before faltering in the G2 Fort

Lauderdale, but should sit a really nice trip up near the pace. SOGLIO is another that will

sit close, but did lose to a weaker field recently in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes. HUNTING

HORN fits in this field after exiting the Arc de Triomphe and Breeders’ Cup Turf. I look for

this Aidan O’Brien-trained European to improve and contend here.

Value Plays: POSTULATION is going to have to work out a trip from the 13 hole, but if

he can leave the gate well to cross over and gain position, he might end up in the mix

at the end of this race. This horse has hit the board in 4 of 7 tries at this distance, and

would provide good value in the verticals. He’s a massive price at 20-1.


• $40 Exacta: CANESSAR over ZULU ALPHA ($40)

• $4 Trifecta part-wheel: ZULU ALPHA with CANESSAR with HIGHLAND SKY,

CAN’THELPBELIEVING, HUNTING HORN, HUNTER O’RILEY, POSTULATION ($20)

• $2 Trifecta part-wheel: HIGHLAND SKY, SOGLIO, CANESSAR, HUNTING HORN with

ZULU ALPHA with HIGHLAND SKY, SOGLIO, CANESSAR, HUNTING HORN, HUNTER

O’RILEY, POSTULATION ($40)

Maker, Delacour Hold Cards in Turf Marathon By Jonathon Van Dine, Xpressbet.com @Xpressbet



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Top 4 Picks

1. YOSHIDA

2. CATAPULT

3. NEXT SHARES

4. BRICKS AND MORTAR


Pegasus World Cup Turf Grade 1 - $7,000,0004YO+ – 1 3/16 Miles (Turf)

Stats & Trends

Last Five Pegasus Turf/GP Turf Winners:Year Horse Jockey2018 Heart to Heart J. Leparoux 2017 Almanaar (GB) J. Rosario2016 Lukes Alley P. Lopez2015 Mshawish J. Castellano2014 Lochte O. Bocachica

Pegasus Turf/GP Turf Snapshot:(Since 1991)Stakes Record (9F): 1:45.63 (Almanaar, 2017) Largest Win Margin: 4 3/4 Lengths (Man From Wicklow, 2003)Winning Favorites: 12 (42.9%)Wire-to-Wire Winners: 4 (14.3%)Average Win Odds: 6.34/1Average Exacta ($2): $105.79Average Trifecta ($1): $285.63

Know ThisNew Name, Who This? Prior to this year, the Pegasus World Cup Turf was named the Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes. It was created in 1988 and last year’s edition had a $300,000 purse. Bill Mott (5 wins) and Jerry Bailey (7 wins) lead all trainers and jockeys in GP Turf victories.

New Distance Too: In an effort to attract more international horses, the distance of the Gulfstream Park Turf was extended from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles when it was rebranded the Pegasus World Cup Turf.

Longshots Trending: Favorites won a remarkable 9-of-13 editions of the Gulfstream Park Turf between 1991 and 2003. That trend has flipped, though, as just three of the last 15 versions have been won by the fave. The average winner since 2004 has paid at odds of 8/1.

?

Analysis: If embracing diversity was the aim of this inaugural turf companion to the

original Pegasus, mission accomplished. The field of 10 includes a favorite that has been

running on the dirt, would-be pace-setters from the U.S., Ireland and Japan, three fillies and

mares taking on the boys and a 12-pound difference between the top and bottom weight

assignments. Simply put, this race is wide open and there are plenty of ways to approach it.

Main Contenders: After winning the Woodward and finishing fourth in the Breeders’

Cup Classic on dirt, morning-line favorite YOSHIDA returns to the turf, where he has

spent most of his career. No, despite his name, he is not the Japanese import into this

race, but he was bred in Japan and is sired by the Japanese stallion Heart’s Cry. The same

connections who brought us Triple Crown winner JUSTIFY bought Yoshida in 2015, and

he delivered them a Grade 1 win on yielding Churchill Downs turf last Kentucky Derby Day.

Not only does John Sadler have ACCELERATE in the dirt feature, but he brings Breeders’

Cup Mile runner-up CATAPULT into this race. Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien entered 4-year-

old filly MAGIC WAND, a. A winner last summer at Royal Ascot, she faded to fourth over

this distance in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. America’s top turf trainer, Chad Brown,

who used to train CATAPULT, saddles deep closer BRICKS AND MORTAR, a 5-year-old that

just overcame a 14-month layoff to win a race at Gulfstream in December.

Value Plays: Also getting a weight break for staying off Lasix, AEROLITHE arrives from Japan

after she faded to finish 12th in the Mile Championship two months ago. The race before that

she led the whole way, winning as the favorite in a Grade 2 race over nine furlongs in Tokyo.

DELTA PRINCE returns back to the turf and gets globetrotting jockey Frankie Dettori, who is

not in the habit of making the long trip from Europe just to receive a participation award. NEXT

SHARES is a closer that has won three of his last four, including the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile

and the Grade 2 San Gabriel only three weeks ago at Santa Anita.


• $50 Win: YOSHIDA ($50)

• $25 Win: CATAPULT ($25)

• $25 Exacta: YOSHIDA over CATAPULT ($25)

‘Home Team’ Can Dominate Inaugural Pegasus Turf By Brent Musburger, Vegas Stats & Information Network

@brentmusburger



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Top 4 Picks

1. ACCELERATE

2. CITY OF LIGHT

3. AUDIBLE

4. PATTERNRECOGNITION


Pegasus World Cup Grade 1 - $9,000,0004YO+ – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

Stats & Trends

Last Five Pegasus/Donn Winners:Year Horse Jockey2018 Gun Runner F. Geroux 2017 Arrogate M. Smith2016 Mshawish J. Velazquez2015 Constitution J. Castellano2014 Lea J. Rosario

Pegasus/Donn Snapshot:(Since 1991)Stakes Record: 1:46.40 (Jumping Hill, 1979) Largest Win Margin: 12 3/4 Lengths (Quality Road, 2010)Winning Favorites: 7 (25.0%)Wire-to-Wire Winners: 4 (14.3%)Average Win Odds: 5.16/1Average Exacta ($2): $126.36Average Trifecta ($1): $594.10

Know ThisPegasus Takes Flight: Prior to 2017, the Pegasus World Cup was run under a different name – the Donn Handicap – and that race has a storied history in and of itself. Six Donn winners, including Invasor, Cigar, Skip Away and Forego, went on to be inducted in Racing’s Hall of Fame.

Classic/World Cup Double: Since the introduction of the Pegasus World Cup in 2017, the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner is a perfect 2-for-2 in the race. Accelerate will try to make it 3-for-3 this year.

Speed Not Required: Despite the notion that Gulfstream is ‘speed favoring,’ just two of the last 23 editions of the Pegasus World Cup/Donn were won in true gate-to-wire fashion.

Form Holds: Since 1995, no horse has won the Pegasus World Cup/Donn at odds higher than 8/1.

?

Analysis: The first major racing event of 2019 also serves as last call for America’s leading

older horse. ACCELERATE hopes to make Saturday’s $9 million main event a career swan

song, following in the footsteps of fellow Breeders’ Cup Classic winners Gun Runner (’18)

and Arrogate (’17). Those post-time favorites lent instant credibility to the fledgling Pegasus

World Cup and delivered with performances representative of expectations. At 1-1/8 miles

in distance, the World Cup is held at one of the more honest distances in racing. It’s far

enough that speed simply can’t steal away, and short enough that we’re not left with fields

shrouded in question marks for the trip like classic, 1-1/4 miles races often present.

Main Contenders: ACCELERATE dominated the Classic division a year ago, winning 4

straight G1 races from California to Kentucky. What’s interesting about the Pegasus World

Cup challengers is that we’re not subjected to the same re-tread, re-matched fields. The

milers have come calling in spades, led by Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile champ CITY OF LIGHT

and Cigar Mile hero PATTERNRECOGNITION. The former got this trip in the G2 Oaklawn

Handicap last spring vs. ACCELERATE, while the latter will be trying the distance for the

first time. Visually the Oaklawn win for CITY OF LIGHT came with some hint of caution

as he looked powerful in upper stretch, but struggled to close the deal. With more pace

pressure, CITY OF LIGHT could find this assignment tougher against ACCELERATE. But all

3 of these are massively respected Saturday.

Value Plays: The post 12 draw for PATTERNRECOGNITION should do two things: one,

make it a tougher task for him to win; and two, inflate his price. If you like him, consider

overlay possibilities in the win pool and exacta. AUDIBLE, last year’s Florida Derby

winner, has to be better than his race here in December. But I need 12-1 or 15-1 off that

effort. SEEKING THE SOUL at 41-1 wasn’t far off the exotic tickets in this race last year,

and probably is the closer who offers the most value as an alternative to the respected

late-runner GUNNEVERA, whose usefulness in the superfecta remains strong, but now

everyone knows it. Longshots aren’t expected here to make serious noise, so I’ll work

the logical players without conceding the race to both favorites.


• $50 Exacta Part-Wheel: ACCELERATE with AUDIBLE and PATTERNRECOGNITION ($100)

New Faces Emerge in Accelerate’s Send-Off By Jeremy Plonk, Xpressbet.com @Horseplayernow


Pegasus World Cup Grade 1 - $9,000,0004YO+ – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

In its brief history, the Pegasus World Cup has developed quite a reputation for showdowns. In 2017, it was Arrogate and California

Chrome. Last year, Gun Runner vs. West Coast filled the marquee. Saturday we get Breeders’ Cup divisional winners ACCELERATE and

CITY OF LIGHT. You don’t necessarily have to separate them, thanks to exotic wagering, but it won’t hurt your potential payoff to try.

These are the four runners I’ll be focused on in the $9 million finale:

SEEKING THE SOUL: Longshot outran his odds when fifth in this race last year and he dances all the big dances. He showed in

the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile when second to CITY OF LIGHT that he is faster than his running style suggests. That could help him

over a Gulfstream track that probably will play fast on Pegasus World Cup Day.

ACCELERATE: The Breeders’ Cup Classic may have been the best chance to beat him. From an outside draw that day and with

trainer John Sadler’s historical struggles in the BC, ACCELERATE seemed a vulnerable favorite off a so-so final prep. But now we

know he can win on the road, and that Sadler with the right horse can be just fine outside of his California base, too. He will face

some new challengers this time, but there’s no reason to think his career finale will stray too far from his record of 6 wins and 2

seconds in his last 8 starts.

CITY OF LIGHT: We know this one travels well and matches up well, winning the G2 Oaklawn Handicap over ACCELERATE and

the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Churchill Downs over SEEKING THE SOUL. Gulfstream Park-based jockey Javier Castellano and

an inner-post draw in the 3-hole both will benefit his chances with a short run into the clubhouse turn. He should easily clear

BRAVAZO and SOMETHING AWESOME to his inside. CITY OF LIGHT had a 3-pound advantage on ACCELERATE in the Oaklawn

Handicap, but will carry equal weight of 124 pounds in the Pegasus World Cup.

GUNNEVERA: Ever-steady, the late runner did us well a year ago by rallying for third in this race at 13-1. His summer-fall included

runner-up bids in the Woodward and Breeders’ Cup Classic to horses in the spotlight today – Pegasus World Cup Turf contender

Yoshida and World Cup favorite ACCELERATE. You’ll notice GUNNEVERA is a bit more tactical than most think; in his races at

Gulfstream, he has stayed several lengths closer to the pace than he has at other tracks. Let’s see where Irad Ortiz, Jr. puts him

down the backstretch.

Betting-wise, I’m hoping for a split. Trifectas using the favorites in the top two spots won’t pay boxcars, so the best chance for a

bigger return will be to work the pricier horses in-between ACCELERATE and CITY OF LIGHT. I’m looking forward to a busy day

Saturday with the NBC Sports telecast and second of two days in the Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship. I was fortunate

enough to win the contest last year when GUNNEVERA and SEEKING THE SOUL were my longshot hopes to get in the trifecta

behind favorites Gun Runner and West Coast. Let’s see if lightning can strike twice.

Good luck!

Eddie Olcyzk’s Pegasus World Cup Thoughts

All-Time Pegasus/Donn Record – Today’s Trainers

Post

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101112

Trainer

D. Wayne Lukas

Jose Corrales

Mike McCarthy

Dallas Stewart

John Sadler

Al Stall Jr.

Kiaran McLaughlin

Antonio Sano

Fausto Gutierrez

Todd Pletcher

Anthony Quartarolo

Chad Brown

Horse

Bravazo

Something Awesome

City of Light

Seeking the Soul

Accelerate

Tom’s d’Etat

True Timber

Gunnevera

Kukulkan (MEX)

Audible

Imperative

Patternrecognition

Starts

3

0

0

2

0

0

7

1

0

15

0

2

Win

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

4

0

0

Place

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

2

0

0

Show

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

2

0

0

Win ROI

$0.00

-

-

$0.00

-

-

$1.57

$0.00

-

$2.33

-

$0.00

AVG Odds4.70/1

-

-

60.60/1

-

-

9.39/1

13.70/1

-

6.97/1

-

23.95/1

Pegasus World Cup Stats and Trends

All-Time Pegasus/Donn Record – Today’s Jockeys

Post

123456789

101112

Jockey

Luis Saez

Edgar Prado

Javier Castellano

John Velazquez

Joel Rosario

Shaun Bridgmohan

Joe Bravo

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Frankie Dettori

Flavien Prat

Tyler Gaffalione

Jose Ortiz

Horse

Bravazo

Something Awesome

City of Light

Seeking the Soul

Accelerate

Tom’s d’Etat

True Timber

Gunnevera

Kukulkan (MEX)

Audible

Imperative

Patternrecognition

Starts

6

3

12

21

5

1

1

2

1

0

2

2

Win

0

1

1

4

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Place

1

0

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

Show

1

1

1

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Win ROI

$0.00

$4.47

$0.63

$1.69

$2.60

$16.80

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

-

$0.00

$0.00

AVG Odds

39.65/1

11.40/1

8.72/1

14.09/1

11.26/1

7.40/1

5.00/1

5.75/1

23.10/1

-

117.25/1

27.50/1

87

28 28 28 28 28 28 27 26 20 14 9 5 1 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 9 10 11 12 13 14

Winning Pegasus/Donn Post PositionsSince 1991

Post

Starters

Winners 9 2 5 4 0 3 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0

january 26, 2019 gulfstream park€¦ · arrived at gulfstream park on january 14, ensuring plenty...

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