jeff french: how to design and deliver social programs that influence behaviour
DESCRIPTION
Jeff French: How to Design and Deliver Social Programs that Influence Behaviour Keynote Session Presented at the New Horizons in Responsible Gambling Conference in Vancouver, January 27-29, 2014TRANSCRIPT
What we know about
how to design and deliver
Social Programmes that
influence behaviour.Professor
Jeff French
Biologist
Educator
Public Health Specialist
Civil Servant
Entrepreneur
Academic
Writer
Consultant
Social Policy & Programme
Engineer
Who am I ?
3 Big Messages
We Know a lot about how to:
1. Help people behave in individual and
socially responsible ways
2. Design successful social interventions
3. We have a professional and
personal responsibility to apply
this understanding and add to it.
Content1. Why social programmes influencing social behaviour
need to be more sophisticated.
2. What we know about influencing behaviour.
3. Social Marketing and efficient Social Programme
design.
4. Developing programmes for minimising harm and
protecting people with potential gambling problems.
ANTI-TED
Its Complex
but not
Complicated
Future success will come from:
Systemic and evidence based Citizen focused programmes informed by
Social Marketing Principles
Why Social Programmes
influencing social behaviour
need to be more
sophisticated
Our world is changing fast
Better use of public funds
Serve the people better
Stephen Harper David Cameron
The big frustrating questions
for Donors and Governments
• What is the impact of
the funds we invest?
• What is the ROI?
• What have we learnt?
http://www.campbellcollaboration.org/
"Less than $1 out of every
$100 of government
spending is backed by
even the most basic
evidence that the money
is being spent wisely."
John Bridgeland and Peter Orszag, The Atlantic 2013.
http://www.cochrane.org/
The wicked economic and
social drag factors:
Health / Physical & Mental
Chronic & Acute Disease
Information Asymmetry
Degradation of Social Capital
Environmental change
Water access
Poverty
Inequality
Discrimination
climate change
Big complex messy societal challenges
poverty
recycling
theft
obesity
drug usesexual health
smoking
violence
inequality
HIV / Aids
alcoholalcohol
accidents
Pollution
Problem Gambling
From Poor and Sick
to Rich and Healthy in 200 years
Professor Hans Rosling
Karolinska Institute
GAPMINDER
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What do you think the life expectancy in the world as a whole is today ?
40 years
50 Years
60 Years
70 Years
Correct
answer
70 Years
What percentage of adults in the
world today are literate?
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Correct
answer
80%
The number of
children who die
before they reach five
has been cut by half
over the last 20 years
From 12 million in 1990 – 7.6 million in
2010. Proof that investment has paid off.
Unicef Annual report 2011
We should be optimistic
Positive Change is Possible
Do what I say
I am the boss
NO!
The rise of the
Demanding
Sceptical
Citizen/Consumer
John Clarke et al
Pine Forest Press 2007
Put your hands up
generation LX you are the ‘Charmed Generation’
Typically, people born between
1950 and 1970
You want it how you want it
Citizens want to be part of the solution.
They are saying to us:
I do not believe you
I do not trust you
Listen to me
I am in control now, help me
solve the problems
•Co-production•Co- design•Co-delivery•Social media marketing•Viral marketing •Permission Marketing•Prosumers•Joint value creation•Relationship Marketing•Etc:
Demanding Citizens
We are not all the same
Which shape and colour best
represents the way you work?
“It’s not about telling and selling. It’s about bringing a relationship mind set to everything we do”
Jim Stengel Global Marketing Chief Proctor & Gambel 2009)
Jeff
Welcome to Your Amazon.com™
(If you're not Jeff French, click here.)
A new politics of the common good
more scrupulous politicians
more demanding idea of what it means
to be a citizen
MICHAEL SANDEL
NEW CITIZENSHIP
Trust in Civic Institutions is Falling
Generally trusted to tell the truth?
Can I read your mind?
I will mind read your card and
remove it!
87%87%
86%84%
75%72%
69%68%
66%64%63%63%
62%60%
56%53%53%
52%52%
51%49%49%
43%33%
Saudi ArabiaIndia
IndonesiaChina
RussiaTurkeyMexico
ItalySouth Korea
PolandArgentina
BrazilJapan
South AfricaHungaryCanada
SpainAustralia
FranceBelgium
GermanyGreat Britain
SwedenUSA
Government should ban…Tend to support/strongly support
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
MA
ND
AT
OR
Y L
EG
.
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada)
in each country, November 2010
88%87%
86%82%
79%78%
72%71%70%70%70%
68%68%67%67%
64%63%62%62%61%
60%59%
55%46%
ChinaIndia
IndonesiaS Arabia
TurkeyRussia
South KoreaBrazil
MexicoPoland
ArgentinaItaly
South AfricaHungary
JapanCanadaBelgium
SpainAustralia
GreatSwedenFrance
GermanyUSA
Government should make it more expensive/more difficult…
% Tend to support/strongly support (average over all four policy areas)
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
OP
TIO
NA
L LE
G.
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada)
in each country, November 2010
Strategic Social Marketing
95%94%93%
92%92%91%91%90%90%89%
88%88%88%
87%87%86%
84%83%
82%80%80%
78%74%
73%
ChinaRussia
Saudi ArabiaSouth Africa
MexicoTurkey
IndiaIndonesia
PolandBrazil
HungaryArgentinaAustralia
ItalySouth Korea
CanadaSpain
BelgiumGreat Britain
GermanyFranceJapan
United StatesSweden
Tend to support/strongly support
Government should provide incentives…
Average over all four policy areas
INC
EN
TIV
ES
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada)
in each country, November 2010Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Strategic Social Marketing
R2 = 0.703
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
GDP per capita (PPP) (current int'l $)
Str
on
gly
su
pp
ort
/te
nd
to
su
pp
ort
The wealthier the nation the less likely they are to favour
coercive government intervention
Australia
France
Germany
JapanPoland
Saudi Arabia
Spain Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
South Africa
South Korea
Russia
Turkey
Mexico
Indonesia
Hungary
India
Brazil
China
Argentina
Belgium Canada
Italy
The government should make the behaviour more difficult/more expensive (optional legislation)
Base: c.500 - 1,000 residents aged 16-64 (18-64 in the US and Canada) in each country, November 2010
Ipsos Global @dvisor;
World Bank 2009
• Datafication
• Correlation not Causation
• N = All
Well at least things are OK in Canada!
The Power of Social Communication
• Salience
• Priming
• Familiarity
• Trust building
• Low attention processing
• Emotion and physical association
Is your card missing?
When I show the deck
put up your hand
if I have removed your card
People get distracted and they forget!
Wrong question: How do we tell people what to do?
S.A.P.
Spray And Pray
Some Posters Leaflets App’s & TV
(Thanks Alan Tapp and Co)
S.P.L.A.T.
Knowledge
Attitudes
Behaviour
Features of many social programmes
1. Short term
2. High cost
3. Crude understanding of
behaviour change
4. Focused on cure not
prevention
5. Poor co-ordination
6. Poor evaluation
Evidence informed Policy?
Evidence and Insight Policy
Evidence in search of policy
Eminence based policy
Policy in search of evidence
Policy counter to the evidence
Policy with evidence
The reality is slightly different
Policy in search of a headline
Evidence and Insight Policy
Politicians role:
1. Reflect public opinion
2. Develop and promote policy
3. Champion effective and efficient interventions and stamp out the rubbish
What does good social
policy look like?
Effective Policymaking involves:
1. Evidence based or informed.
2. Informed by citizen insight.
3. Informed by behavioural science.
4. Designing policies around outcomes.
5. Strategic & Operational focus.
6. Embedded learning systems.
7. Stakeholders involved.
Use citizen
understanding and
assets to deliver
outcomes
Build operations
around the citizen
Understand the
citizenEngage Citizens
The Building
Blocks of
Citizen Centric
Policy
Social Policy:1. Insist that evidence based
approaches are used in all
programmes
2. Develop systemic sustained
relentless strategy
3. Help build the evidence base.
Commission RCT’s
4. Actively build & contribute to
social coalitions
Source: Stacey RD. Strategic management and organisational dynamics: the
challenge of complexity. 3rd ed. Harlow: Prentice Hall, 2002.
When to use SMART Objectives and
when to run a RCT
RCT
Judgmental
decisionsRational
decisions
SMART OBJECTIVES
AND PRESCRIBED
SYSTEMS AUDIT
Measurement Culture
Performance
Culture
What we know
about how to
influence
behaviour.
KIKI BOOBA
Trust me I am a Biologist!
Rational Choice Theory
The weaknesses of Classical economics
& Neo-classical economics
Maximising utility
Adam
Smith
Jean-Baptiste
Say
David
RichardoThomas Robert
Malthus
John Stuart
Mill
1776Francois
Quesnay
Homo economicus ‘Rational
Economic Man’ & Woman!)
Humans :
rational
self-interested
actors
. Neuroscience
. Evolutionary Psychology
. Behavioural Economics
. Psychology
. Anthropology
. Social Geography
. Etc…….
95%of decision making happens in our unconscious
Thinking Fast and Slow The 2 systems
1 2
Automatic Reflective
Uncontrolled Controlled
Effortless Effortful
Intuitive Knowledge driven
Associative Deductive
Fast Slow
Unconscious Conscious
Skilled Rule following
Emotional Rational
Hot Cold
The neural tug of war1 2
Mindless Choosing
Brian Wansink Cornell University
Daniel Kahneman, a
psychologist won the Nobel Prize for pointing
out that economic choices are not so
rational
Fear of Loss (Prospect theory)
We are overly optimistic
We over value small, sure,
short term gains
We underestimate uncertain
long term losses
We are very loss averse
Making it Easy is grabbing the
attention of
Policy Makers
Nudges can be characterised as:
• Positive or only
minor penalties
• Avoidable
• Passive, and easy, i.e. require little effort
• Low cost, to both the person and to the organisation utilizing them
EXPLICIT CONSENT
OPT INPRESUMED CONSENT
OPT OUT
Status Quo Bias
But we can also make it Hard
We can also influence Rational Thinking
As well as Mindless Choosing
+ Hug
Nudge
Shove
Smack
The value/cost exchange matrix© $ Primary Forms of intervention
Incentive Disincentive
Active
Decision
Conscious / Considered
Automatic / Unconscious
Passive
Decision
Hug Smack
ShoveNudge
eg: A Fineeg: a coffee for
taking a rest
eg: A default saving
scheme
e.g.: Carbon Tax
Types and Forms
of Behavioural
Influence
Legislate
Monitoring
Police
Rules Requirements Enforcement
RegulateIncentives Dis-incentivise,
5 Types of Intervention
Inform
Educate
Support
Design
Control
Provide serviceAssist Care Support
Advice Advocate Nurture
Teach
Engage Inspire
Build skills (analytical & practical)
Critical consciousnessMotivate
Mobilise
Physical environment
ProductsTechnology
Systems, Policy, Service
de-CIDES influencing behaviour framework©
Communicate
Remind TriggerMake aware
Advise Highlight Signal
Treat Screen
Inform
Educate
Support
Design
Control
de-CIDES influencing behaviour framework
5 Types of policy intervention
Default Preference
The value/cost exchange matrix© $ Primary Forms of intervention
Incentive Disincentive
Active
Decision
Conscious / Considered
Automatic / Unconscious
Passive
Decision
Hug Smack
ShoveNudge
Inform
Educate
Support
Design
Control
Hug NudgeShoveSmack
Default Policy
Preference
A neutral stance to selection of
appropriate mix
Driven by evidence, data, insight and ethical
considerations
What we know: We need a full mix of interventions
Making it
HardSmackShove
Shove
Control
Strategic Social Marketing
DesignShove
Using Price
Signals
Minimum price
Shove
ControlNicola Sturgeon
Scotland's health secretary,
50p
per unit
This is an actual speed control device that is currently in use. It is MUCH
cheaper than speed cameras, radar guns, police officers,
This is an actual speed control device that is currently in use. It is MUCH
cheaper than speed cameras, radar guns, police officers,
ShoveControl
InformSmack
Gold coast public toilet
Design Shove
Ne
w Y
ork
Ba
ns
the
sale
of
mo
re t
ha
n
16
ou
nce
so
ft
dri
nk
s
Smack Control
People
need to
agree and
support
restrictions
and
penalties
Taxi
driver
avoids a
‘Shove’
in
Ankara
May
2013
Making it
EasyNudge
Design can help
shift
Social Norms
Product
Size and
Positioning
Less can be more
Nudge Design
Creating supportive environments
Nudge Design
Spray water on
salad
Make an express
checkout
for healthy
products
Pay cash for desert not
Accept cards
Move salad bar to the
center of canteen
Use glass fruit bowls
not
stainless steel
Hide the ice cream.
Close the lid
Rename the food
e.g.
‘Farm fresh fruit’
Move the veg to
the start of the line
Nudge Design
Design
Nudge
Making it
Desirable
http://www.captive-media.co.uk/
DesignNudge
Conditional Cash Payments
Argentina
$53 month received by the
families of more than 3.6 million children,
conditional on school
attendance and
keeping up to date
with vaccines and
health check- up’s.
Hug Support
Hug
Control
Rest and Revive Queensland Bruce Highway
Hug Support
The target
audience?
Hug Inform
Flip-flops & lollipops
HugSupport
Social Marketing
and Social
Programme
design.
Marketing Mindset:
Use data, evidence and insight to create policy, systems, environments, products and services that make the
healthy choice the Easy and
Desired and Valued choice
Professional ledSelling / telling
AwarenessAdult – Child
One-off / transitoryDeficit
Operational focusWhole population
ControlCentral command
Compartmentalise
Consumer led
Marketing / relationshipsBehaviourAdult - AdultSustainedAssetStrategic focusSegmented audiencesEmpowerNetworked leadershipWhole system
Tell Sell and Control
Social Marketing
The New Civic Relationship
INSIGHT
Behaviour
Method MixAudience
Segmentation
Behaviour Theory & Behavioural Goals
Intervention mix & Marketing mix
The Social Marketing Customer Triangle
Customer
French & Blair Stevens 2006
Social Marketing is a systematic planned Process
www.stelamodel.com
Scope Test EnactLearn
&Act
The rationale
Situation Analysis
Target Audience Profile
Intervention proposition
Initial marketing objectives
Marketing intervention
Mix Strategies
Pre testing and piloting
Report on the pilot
programme
Full business plan
setting out
Time frame and key mile
stones
Resources allocation
Stakeholder and partner
management
Evaluation and monitoring
Reporting
Review and build on
learning
Policy
Strategy
Tactics
Operations
Str
ate
gic
So
cia
l M
ark
eti
ng
Op
era
tio
nal
So
cia
l M
ark
eti
ng
Social
Marketing
Works!1000’s of social marketing
programmes have demonstrated
effectiveness
CDC on Social Marketing: Health Communication Campaigns Review April 2011
• Median increase of 8.4% in the
proportion of people who
engaged in a healthy behaviour.
• Overall, results were
consistently
favourable
"Combining product distribution with health communication campaigns results in greater behaviour change than using health communication campaign alone."
Developing programmes
for minimising harm and
protecting people from
potential gambling
problems
People have always gambled and
always will. Two key questions are:
1. How to maximise the
fun and minimize the
potential harm?
2. How to use income
for the best social
impact?
Nathan Coley
Why do some people get harmed by
gambling? It’s simple,
It’s because of :
Non-linear probability
weighting, projection
bias, prospect theory and
temporal discounting!
Steve Johnson The Guardian on line, http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-
business/behavioural-insights/true-potential-technology-change-behaviour
“We are weak-willed
and lacking in self-
control, rendered docile
in the face of the
unconscious cognitive
processes, social
dynamics and external
contextual cues”
Luckily, the history of the
human race is defined by
its ability to invent stuff
that bolsters its feeble
capabilities
1.Rapid Cognition
1.Mindless Choosing
2.Status Quo Bias
3.Ego Depletion
4.Decision fatigue
2.Loss & Gain
1.Consistency
2.Temporal discounting
3.Anchoring
• 3. Feedback
1.Incentives
2.disincentives
4. Trust 1. Authority2.Liking
5. Framing 1.Computation2.Salience 3. Priming4.Low attention processing
6. Social Norms1.Reciprocity2.Value attribution
Segment people who gamble 1. Happy and in control gambler
2. Occasional gambler
3. Habitual gambler
4. Problem gamblers
5. At risk gamblers
6. Pathological gamblers
7. Minor Problem gambler
8. Big problem gambler
9. Physically ill gambler
10. Mentally ill gambler
11. Ethnicity / culture factors
12. Male gamblers
13. Female gamblers
14. Children gamblers
15. Young adult gamblers
16. Mature adult gamblers
17. Older adult gamblers
18. Rich gamblers
19. Poor gamblers
20. Poly addiction gamblers
Designing effective interventions
1. Formal preventive life skills
education about gambling.
2. Self directed education about
gambling and responsible
gambling promotions
3. Design safer gambling
environments, systems and
processes that reflect human
decision making
4. Build in and provide cut-off options plus
cooling off / reflection points /self exclusion
5. Restrictions on
promotions with special
emphasis on vulnerable
groups
6. Easy access to help and
support including outreach and community
support
Developing effective gambling programmes
1. Develop strategy and hard
objectives and report on progress
2. Use a full mix of interventions
based on data, insight, evidence
and ethics
3. Develop segmented programmes
4. Invest and evaluate, add to the
knowledge and evidence base
The UBC Centre for
Gambling Research• A $2-million investment from the
British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC) and the Government of B.C. will create a major new Centre for Gambling Research at the University of British Columbia to advance our understanding of gambling psychology and help reduce problem gambling behaviours.
• The UBC Centre for Gambling Research will be one of a handful of its kind internationally.
Summary:
Future success will come from:
Systemic and evidence based Citizen focused programmes informed by
Social Marketing Principles
More focus on
understanding
the people
we are
trying
to help
Citizens need to Demand
Engagement in the:
• Selection
• Development
• Implementation
• Evaluation
• Learning
of all programmes
Gambling interventions that
work with both types of
cognition
1 2
The value/cost exchange matrix© $ Primary Forms of intervention
Incentive Disincentive
Active
Decision
Conscious / Considered
Automatic / Unconscious
Passive
Decision
Hug Smack
ShoveNudge
Social Policy:1. Insist that evidence based
approaches are used in all
programmes
2. Develop systemic sustained
relentless strategy
3. Help build the evidence base.
Commission RCT’s
4. Actively build & contribute to
social coalitions
We can deliver significant social
improvement if we model and
apply what we know works and
stop doing what
we know does
doe’s not work.
We have the opportunity to be at the
cutting edge of science and evidence
driven social policy intervention design.
Please accept this challenge!
Many Thanks and Good Luck
Jeff French
Twitter.com/jefffrenchSSM