JEFS Status ReportDepartment of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Washington

Cliff Mass, Jeff Baars, David CareyCliff Mass, Jeff Baars, David Carey

JEFS Workshop, August 28-29JEFS Workshop, August 28-29

Who is working on JEFS at the UW? Atmospheric SciencesAtmospheric Sciences

Cliff Mass-main faculty leadCliff Mass-main faculty lead Jeff Baars-research scientistJeff Baars-research scientist David Carey-research scientistDavid Carey-research scientist Some assistance from other staffSome assistance from other staff

StatisticsStatistics Tilmann Gneiting-main faculty lead.Tilmann Gneiting-main faculty lead. McClean Sloughter-grad student working on precip and McClean Sloughter-grad student working on precip and

wind bmawind bma Chris Fraley-staff, software supportChris Fraley-staff, software support Some assistance from Adrian Raftery-Prof--Mr. BMASome assistance from Adrian Raftery-Prof--Mr. BMA

The Two Basic Requirements for Post Processing of JEFS Forecasts are:

Quality controlled observational data Quality controlled observational data for the region of interest of all for the region of interest of all necessary parametersnecessary parameters

Reliable JME grids for several Reliable JME grids for several months at least.months at least.

Acquiring and QCing JEFS Obs Data

Not in the Statement of Work (SOW), but a Not in the Statement of Work (SOW), but a critical requirement for JEFS.critical requirement for JEFS.

Developed a robust QC system at the UW that Developed a robust QC system at the UW that has been tested over the last year and recently has been tested over the last year and recently transferred to AFWA.transferred to AFWA.

UW Observation Quality Control System

Range Check A simple gross error check to make sure the observation is

within a reasonable range. Step Check

Looks for "spikes" in an station's time series for a given variable. Persistence Check

Looks for variables that are not changing over extended periods, indicative a failed or frozen sensor.

Spatial Check Compares each observation to those of surrounding stations.

Specifically, designed to handle areas of complex terrain-like Korea and the NW U.S.

Quality Control Display and Warning System

This system is now working on the UW This system is now working on the UW Northwest test bed for a heterogeneous Northwest test bed for a heterogeneous collection of roughly 70 different networks.collection of roughly 70 different networks.

View it in real time at: View it in real time at: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~qcreport/

JEFS Observations

Recently began receiving observations for Recently began receiving observations for 3-, 6-, and 12-hr precipitation.3-, 6-, and 12-hr precipitation. ……in addition to temperature, dew point, in addition to temperature, dew point,

altimeter, sea level pressure, wind speed altimeter, sea level pressure, wind speed and direction.and direction.

Now receiving Korean Mesonet Data.Now receiving Korean Mesonet Data. Format of obs still being adjusted…Format of obs still being adjusted…

Forecast Verification

Another major issue is to have forecast Another major issue is to have forecast verification code running operationally, verification code running operationally, since that is essential infrastructure for post-since that is essential infrastructure for post-processing.processing.

UW has developed code called “verobs” UW has developed code called “verobs” which is being transferred to AFWAwhich is being transferred to AFWA

UW-to-AFWA Code Transfers for QC and forecast verification

Observations Quality Control Fortran code Observations Quality Control Fortran code transferred to Scott Rentschler at AFWA, March transferred to Scott Rentschler at AFWA, March 2007.2007. AFWA needs to use this software to flag and AFWA needs to use this software to flag and

remove observations from the collection we are remove observations from the collection we are receiving.receiving.

Forecast verification Fortran code, “verobs,” Forecast verification Fortran code, “verobs,” transferred to Scott Rentschler at AFWA, August transferred to Scott Rentschler at AFWA, August 2007.2007.

Next Item: Bias Correction Software Development and Transfer to AFWA

As noted many times in the past, bias As noted many times in the past, bias correction substantially improves correction substantially improves probabilistic prediction since probabilistic prediction since systematic bias does not represent true systematic bias does not represent true uncertainty.uncertainty.

Bias Correction of T2 and TD2 Have bias correction running in real-time for 2-m Have bias correction running in real-time for 2-m

temperature and 2-m dew point temperature for temperature and 2-m dew point temperature for the UW Mesoscale Ensemble System (UWME).the UW Mesoscale Ensemble System (UWME). Uses optimized settings.Uses optimized settings. Have gotten this running on the JME/WRF Have gotten this running on the JME/WRF

output as well, using “older generation” JME output as well, using “older generation” JME model data.model data.

Results shown at JEFS technical meeting, Sep-Results shown at JEFS technical meeting, Sep-2006.2006.

Ready to transfer code to AFWA.Ready to transfer code to AFWA.

Bias Correction of PCP12

Have developed bias correction settings for 12-hr Have developed bias correction settings for 12-hr precipitation for the UWME.precipitation for the UWME. As with T2 and TD2, settings were determined As with T2 and TD2, settings were determined

through an optimization process.through an optimization process. Removed land use in gridpoint – to – obs Removed land use in gridpoint – to – obs

matching; using bins for precipitation amountmatching; using bins for precipitation amount Included in Included in Weather and Forecasting Weather and Forecasting paper, paper,

along with T2 and TD2.along with T2 and TD2. Results look good…Results look good…

MetricMetric UncorrectedUncorrected Bias Bias CorrectedCorrected

Mean Mean Absolute Absolute Error Error ((inches)inches)

0.0600.060 0.0460.046

Mean Error Mean Error ((inches)inches)

0.0180.018 -0.013-0.013

Help Help FractionFraction

N/AN/A 0.1330.133

Hurt Hurt FractionFraction

N/AN/A 0.0470.047

Results: Bias Corrected PCP12, forecast hour 48, 2004-July to 2005-June, using UWME system

Daily Domain Averaged ME for PCP12, f48, December 2004

Daily Domain Averaged MAE for PCP12, f48, December 2004

Daily Domain Averaged ME for PCP12, f48, October 2004

Daily Domain Averaged MAE for PCP12, f48, October 2004

Local Bias Correction of DIR10 and SPD10

Currently working on 10-m winds.Currently working on 10-m winds. As with T2 and TD2, a statistically significant As with T2 and TD2, a statistically significant

correlation between model error and land use correlation between model error and land use appears to exist, especially for wind speed.appears to exist, especially for wind speed.

Next Issue: Transferring BMA to AFWA

Local BMA for temperature is now working Local BMA for temperature is now working operationally over the Northwest and is ready to be operationally over the Northwest and is ready to be transferred to AFWA. FORTRAN Code.transferred to AFWA. FORTRAN Code.

Same approach can be used for dew point temperature.Same approach can be used for dew point temperature. Global BMA is working for precipitation. Currently Global BMA is working for precipitation. Currently

written in “r” and must be converted to FORTRAN before written in “r” and must be converted to FORTRAN before it can be transferred to AFWA (Jeff Baars is doing this it can be transferred to AFWA (Jeff Baars is doing this now).now).

Local BMA for precipitation and BMA for wind has been Local BMA for precipitation and BMA for wind has been an area of active work between atmos sci and statistic and an area of active work between atmos sci and statistic and prototypes are working, but still being improved and prototypes are working, but still being improved and evaluated. The next talk will describe this more.evaluated. The next talk will describe this more.

We have continued to maintain and improve PROBCAST Probcast is our attempt to package Probcast is our attempt to package

uncertainty data in a form accessible to uncertainty data in a form accessible to laymen and less experienced forecasters.laymen and less experienced forecasters.

A version of probcast will be adapted for A version of probcast will be adapted for DOD use when the underlying JEFS system DOD use when the underlying JEFS system is in place.is in place.

Are now extending the verification of Are now extending the verification of Probcast over the NW.Probcast over the NW.

Before Probcast: The BMA Site

PROBCAST

Verification of Probcast temperatures web tool

Next: McClean Sloughter, UW Statistics