The P resource The P- resource, status and status a dopportunities f i lt for agriculture

The Phosphorus Challenge

Lars Stoumann JensenLars Stoumann JensenProfessorSoil Fertility & Waste Recycling GroupD t f Pl t & E i t l S iDept. of Plant & Environmental ScienceUniversity of Copenhagen

GABBS, Helsinki, 27 Aug 2013

(Our Nutrient World, 2012)

”Peak Phosphorus” – is it valid? Peak Phosphorus – is it valid? Will P resources be Depleted in 30, 100 or 400 years?

Depletion based on Hubbert type

peak P curve as also fused for ”peak oil”

(Cordell et a 2009)

(Cordell 2009)

What is at stake? What is at stake? • P essential for life –plant

macro nutrient growth and macro nutrient growth and essential for food production

• Excessive P loads also leads to aquatic eutrophication

• But - P minerals are a dscarce resource and

reserves are limited

• The “Peak P” metaphor indicates imminent depletion p– but is it true?

What is at stake? What is at stake? • Ethics paradox of inequality: • Africa is world largest producer • Africa is world largest producer

of rock P and at the same time the continent with the lowest P use

d land largest deficit in food security !food security !

(©Floris Oudshoorn, Stripstudio 2013)

Global driversIncreased and changing demand for foodIncreased and changing demand for food

• Increasing demand for fertiliser NPK input • Increasing demand for fertiliser NPK input to produce food crops and animal feed

Global driversIncreasing demand for bioenergy

•FAO (2011) estimates the global bioethanol and biodiesel production will grow 150 % already by 2020

•Further increase in NPK demand for biofuels•Further increase in NPK demand for biofuels

Global driversIntensive animal production = N&P surplusIntensive animal production = N&P surplus

• Concentrated livestock = surplus nutrient loading of soilsE i t l i t • Environmental impacts

• But also increased soil fertility…

Global driversThe worlds soils generally deficient in P The worlds soils generally deficient in P…

i d d i ffi i i ld• NPK input needed to sustain sufficient yields

Global drivers: Climate change will affect crop productionClimate change will affect crop production

Change in yields of 11 major agricultural crops by 2050 given +2° C IPCC scenariogiven +2 C IPCC scenario

•Difficult to Difficult to maintain yields in the current cereal cereal granaries of the worldD d f •Demand for cultivation of new low P

•P fertiliser demand will soils… •P fertiliser demand will increase drastically no matter what

Worse Better

Resulting global driver: Increasing consumption of P fertilizerIncreasing consumption of P fertilizer…

+2% p.a.

(Palliere, 2011; IFA Production and International Trade)

Resulting global driver: Increasing consumption of P fertilizer

World Phoshpate demand in 2010 and 2020

Forecast by region (in MT P O )

Increasing consumption of P fertilizer…

North AmericaEurope

East Asia

Forecast by region (in MT P2O5)

17 7+1,8%+1,4%

5,25,9

4,9

5,414,7

17,7+1,1%

,

Latin America

South Asia

Oceania

2010 2020 2010 2020

10,1

2010 2020

55,6

World's total+2,0% +1,1%

Latin America Oceania

6,19

9,1

2010 20201,2 1,7

45,7

55,6

+3,9% +3,2x%

6,1

2010 2020

2010 2020

2010 2020

2010 2020Source: CRU Int. 2010

Global P reserves and reserves and suppliespp

Phosphate Mining at SNPT (Societe Nouvelle des Phosphates de Togo)Licensed under CC-BY-SA by permission of the author, Alexandra Pugachevsky

Global P reserves are also geopoliticsgeopoliticsEstimated world rock-phosphate reserves 2005 (USGS)Global total of ca. 16 bio ton

Phosphate World Reserves in Billion tonsRussia 0.5

Finland

Canada

United States

Syria 0.2

Isreal 0.2Morocco

China

3.71.8

Togo

Tunisia

Egypt

Jordan 0.9

KSA

Morocco

5.7Source: CRU Int. 2010 / MK. Madsen, Kommunekemi a/s

Australia South Africa

Brazil

2.8

PeruTogoSenegal KSA

0.10.2

Global P reserves are also geopoliticsgeopoliticsEstimated world rock-phosphate reserves 2005 (USGS)Global total of ca. 16 Gton

Phosphate World Reserves in Billion tonsRussia 0.5

Finland

Canada

United States

Syria 0.2

Isreal 0.2Morocco

China

3.71.8

Togo

Tunisia

Egypt

Jordan 0.9

KSA

Morocco

51Source: CRU Int. 2010 / MK. Madsen, Kommunekemi a/s

Australia South Africa

Brazil

2.8

PeruTogoSenegal KSA

0.10.2Revised 2010 estimate:In 2010 International Fertilizer Development Center re-estimated P reserves in NW Africa from 5.7 to 51 Gton ≈ 10 fold increase!Most recent estimate of global total reserves thus ca. 67 Gton

Global P‐Rock reservesAlgeria Brazil

h fTunisia S Arabia

USA2%

g3 %

Australia 1 %

Brazil 0 %Canada

0 %Egypt0 %

India 0 % Iraq

1 %

Israel 0 %

JordanPeru

Russia 2 %

Senegal0 %

South Africa2 %

Syria 3 %

Togo 0 %

0 %Other1 %

S Arabia1 %

China6%

2 %

Mexico 0 %

Peru 1 %

Morocco & Western Sahara

74% !74% !

USGS, 2013: Global total reserves 67 Gtons

P‐Rock extraction rate 2012 (210 Mtons) l h i i i h di bi

USA

Algeria 1 %

Australia 1 %

Brazil3 %Morocco & Peru

Russia 5 %

Senegal0 %

South Africa1 %

Syria 1 %

Togo 0 %

Tunisia 3 %

Other3 %

Saudi Arabia1 %

USA14 %

1 % 3 %

Canada 0 %

Morocco & Western Sahara 13 %

1 %

China43 %

Mexico 1 %

43 %Israel

Jordan3 %

• US and Chinese reserves are likely to be E t

India 1 %

Iraq0 %

1 %

USGS, 2013

• US and Chinese reserves are likely to be depleted in next 30-40 years!

• China has de facto stopped rock P exports

Egypt1 %

So is ”Peak P” really valid? D l t d i 30 100 400 ?

B d li 2005 P ti t

Depleted in 30, 100 or 400 years?

Based on earlier 2005 P reserve estimateGlobally ca. 16 bio ton

Depletion based on Hubbert type yp

peak P curve(Cordell et a 2009)

(©Floris Oudshoorn, Stripstudio 2013)

So is ”Peak P” really valid? D l t d i 30 100 400 ?Depleted in 30, 100 or 400 years?

Based on new 2010 P reserve estimate by IFDCBased on new 2010 P reserve estimate by IFDCGlobal total of ca. 60-67 bio ton

The truth is

Depletion based on peak P curve

The truth is probably somewhere in between p

(Cordell et a, 2011)betweenIncreased demand = rising prices =technology

Depletion by constant consumption= 3 400 år

technology development

= 3-400 år(IFDC)

Alternative scenarios towards global depletion of rock P reserves

450

500depletion of rock P reserves

400

450

r yr)

With 10% of global energy from energy crops65 Gt P-rock consumed in 48 yrs

300

350

ock

(Mt p

er With Africa using world avg P/ha on 300 M ha 65 Gt P-rock consumed in 126 yrs

250

tion

of P

ro

Base trend (at 2% p a growth)

150

200

extr

act Base trend (at 2% p.a. growth)

65 Gt P-rock consumed in 172 yrs

100

Rosemarin et al 2011 International Fertilizer Society

Increased rock P supply: potential mine developmentspotential mine developments

Developments in non producing countriesDevelopments in currently producing countriesDevelopments in non-producing countries--

Source: C. Palliere 2011 / IFA Production and International Trade

Cadmium Content of the Commercial Phosphate RocksPhosphate Rocks

Taiba (Senegal)

Nauru

Gafsa (Tunisia)

Togo

North Carolina

Bu-Craa (W Sahara)

Nahal-Zin (Israel)

Youssoufia (Morocco)

Sedimentarysources

Syria

Algeria

Egypt

mg Cd/kg P2O5

Florida

Jordan

Kouribga (Morocco)

y

Kola (Russia)

Pharlaborwa (S Africa)

Florida

Igneous sources

Draft EU regulation limit 20 mg Cd/kg P2O5

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250

Kola (Russia)

Demandt (1999) Bostchek and Van Belken (1999) Davister 1996

sources

A

So will global P reserves bedepleted and depleted and supplies stop?

• Yes, eventually B t th ti h i i h• But – the time horizon is muchlonger than earlier anticipated(+50-400 y)

• Real threats• Geopolitical - monopoly supply,

political destabilisation food securitypolitical destabilisation, food security• Environmental impacts – pollution

from mining, contaminants (cadmium and uranium) and losses from soils to and uranium) and losses from soils to the aquatic environment

(©Floris Oudshoorn, Stripstudio 2013)

Global Food Supply Chain:

120

pp yFrom Mine to Fork – huge P losses!

100relative amount of P

% l b t t O l 20% f i d

60

80% loss between steps • Only 20% of mined

rock P reaches the consumer!

40

60• For the EU a little

better = 25%

20• Necessity to

increase food0

increase foodchain efficiency!

(Schröder et al 2010)A

No matter what – in the long term P use efficiency and recycling must increaseefficiency and recycling must increase

(Cordell, 2009)

Agricultural P balance in EUg

Recycling opportunities - The Danish example:Urban organic waste streams – how much P?Urban organic waste streams how much P?

Ca. 800 tons P/y (2009)in the biodegradable

Households, industryand other businessesCa 10 000 000 ton

Municipal solid waste 2006703,000 ton

fraction (more if paper incl.)

Ca. 9-10,000+ tons P/year in total

Ca. 100 tons P/y

Ca. 10,000,000 ton

Service and trade2001/200686 000 ton /y

Incomplete list, major contrib.:Meat- and bonemeal: ca. 3,000 tons P/y (2009)

86,000 ton

Food industries1998/2006 eat a d bo e ea ca 3,000 to s /y ( 009)

Other: e.g. Novozymes-biosludge ca. 400 tons P/y (2002)/

7,700,000 ton

Sewage sludgeCa. 4,000 tons P/y (2007)2005

1,370,000 ton

Ca. 500 tons P/y (2009)Green/park-waste

2006750,000 ton

(Wet weights; Econet AS, 2010)

Recycling opportunities - The Danish example: Urban vs. agricultural waste – much more P?Urban vs. agricultural waste much more P?

Animal manureCa 35 000 000 ton

Households, industryand other businessesCa. 35,000,000 ton

Ca. 52,000 tons P/year!(fully recycled but low efficiency)

Ca. 9-10,000+ tons P/year

(only partly recycled today)

= 5 x

Ca. 10,000,000 ton

(fully recycled, but low efficiency) (only partly recycled today)

(©Floris Oudshoorn, Stripstudio 2013)

‐ and more efficientlyy

http://phosphorusplatform.eu/March 2013

The ‘Nutrient Nexus’ Nutrient cycles represent a key nexus point between Nutrient cycles represent a key nexus point between global economic, social and environmental challenges

(©Our Nutrient World 2013)

More triple-helix collaboration on technology and market developmenttechnology and market development

(©Floris Oudshoorn, Stripstudio 2013)

Conclusions and recommendations

Farmers and waste entrepeneurs: B l P i i P ffi i• Balance P inputs, increase P use efficiency

• Improve animal manure and crop P(&N) management• Increase P(&N) recycling – develop new technologies• Increase P(&N) recycling – develop new technologies

Policy and decision makersy• Create incentives for nutrient recycling developments• Remove regulatory barriers for innovation and

i l t ti f t i t t h l iimplementation of new nutrient technologies• Ensure creation of market for recycled P products

Final remarkAnything new under the sun?Anything new under the sun?

Statesman quote:”I cannot overemphasize the I cannot overemphasize the importance of phosphorus not only to agriculture and soil conservation but also to the physical health and economic security of the people of the Nation. Many of our soil types are deficient in phosphorus, thus causing low yields and poor quality causing low yields and poor quality of crops and pastures…”

Who said this?

(UNEP YEAR BOOK 2011)

P challenge related projects in my group at University of Copenhagenat University of Copenhagen

The Danish Strategic Research Council

Integrated Resource Management and

Resource Preservation by Application of BIOefFECTORs in European Crop Production

Management and Recovery

Resource Preservation by Application of BIOefFECTORs in European Crop Production

EU FP7

Recovery and Use of Nutrients, Energy and Organic Matter from Animal Waste

IMPROVE‐P: IMproved Phosphorus Ressource efficiency in Organic agriculture via recycling and Enhanced biological mobilization

Contact: lsj@life.ku.dk