Smart energy disruption in Finland – How to benefit?

Jero Ahola, LUT17.2.2016

Transition period from fossil fuels

based energy system to net

CO2-free system ~35 a

World energy transitions 1850-2050

Source: Original picture from GEA Summary 2011, available at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ENE/GEA/index.html.accessed 6.8.2012

From wood to coal~ 80 years

From coal to oil~ 30 years

Increasing quality of the primary fuel

2050

The second electrification

2011

The de-carbonization of the electricity and heat generation mandatory but not sufficient at all

Biomass is not a sustainable energy source in large part of the World.

The w

hole en

egy s

ystem

must

be

de-carb

onized or r

e-carb

onized

77% (CO2)

Transportation13.5%

Electricity &heat 24.6%

Industry +others 26%

CO2 emissions distribution

Land use change 18%

Agriculture & Waste 17%

Available energy sources on earth

Source: Richard Perez & Marc Perez, “A Fundamental Look at Energy Reserves for the Planet”

Candidates to disruptive energy technologies to form the basis for the future energy system

1) RenewablePowergenerationSolar, wind

2) Smart-grid &Electrical Energy Storages

3) Bridging technologiesP2H, P2X, heat pumps, fuel cells

4) CO2 extraction andefficient energy end useCO2 capture, desalination, e-mobility, LED:s, ICT in general providing flexibility and enabling energy efficiency

• Technology: hardware & software, price decreases and performance improves, the improvement is driven by the development of technology

A large portion of intermittent power generation requires all kind of flexibility into the energy system

Source: C. Breyer et al., North-East Asian Super Grid: Renewable Energy Mix and Economics, WCPEC-6, Kyoto, Nov. 2014.

Power electronics – embedded part of disruptive energy technologies

Source: Fraunhofer-institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), Current and Future Costs of Photovoltaics – Long-term Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-scale PV systems, study on the behalf of Agora Energiewende, 2015

• In future majority of electric power will go through the power electronics at least twice before consumed in the end applications

• Power electronics hosts algorithms and methods enabling energy efficiency, demand response, and smart grid

• ~5-10% share in the investment cost of disruptive energy technologies (part of those)

Learning rate: 18.9%Cost reductions driven by increasing power density

Energy efficiency solutions – a means to reduce the total cost energy transformation

• Not necessarily new technology, instead:• Systems approach to energy conversion chains• New design practices, correct dimensioning, real-time measurements, intelligent control, etc• In general more electrification and variable speed drives

Source: Redrawing energy climate map, IEA (International Energy Agency), 2013.

Investmentcosts

Savings in energy costs

Economic limit

Economicalenergy efficiencysavings Target state

with systems approcach

Starting pointreference system

Finnish energy system has to be also “Paris” compatible (net zero CO2 emissions) by 2050

Source: Michael Child, Christian Breyer, Vision and Initial Feasibility analysis of Recarbonized Finnish Energy System.

~165 TWh of CO2-net-emitting energy

consumption

Paris compatible scenarios2012

Definitely this means the next electrification: The doubling of electricity generation from year 2012 by 2050

Source: Michael Child, Christian Breyer, Vision and Initial Feasibility analysis of Recarbonized Finnish Energy System.

90 TWh/a

190 TWh/a

The role of P2X: Almost half of electricity will be used used to produce fuels for transportation & seasonal storage

Source: Michael Child, Christian Breyer, Vision and Initial Feasibility analysis of Recarbonized Finnish Energy System.

Power-to-X: Manufacturing of hydro-carbons with electric power from air

SYNTHESIS REACTOR SYSTEM

Electrolysis

H2

H2 storage

CO2 separation CO2 storage

FT synthesis

Aromatisation

Renewable electricity

Water

Air CO2

Electricity

CH4 synthesis

MeOH synthesisBiomass, gasificationFuels, chemicals

Benzene, plastics, SNG

Fuels SNG

AromatesBenzene, toluene, xylene

Bio-power hybrids

H2

Product separation

In collaboration with VTT

FinlandLappeenranta region cluster:Kaukas• 20 000 tO2/a by ASU• fossil CO2: 0.1 Mt• biogenic CO2: 1.5 Mt• BioVernoJoutseno, Imatra• Combined bio: 3.8 Mt

MtCO2 Fossil Biogenic Total

Finland 3.56 17.17 20.73

Sweden 1.22 22.39 23.61

Norway 0.03 0.32 0.35

SwedenSödra Cell Värö• Fossil 0.04• Biogenic ~1 Mt• Capacity expansion

ongoing• Rail

Värö

Kaukas

1 MWh CH4 -> 198 kgCO2

CO2 emissions of Finnish pulp and paper industry

Source: Hannu Karjunen & Tero Tynjälä, LUT

Electrical fuels - Methane production potential from renewable H2 and bio-CO2 of Finnish pulp and paper industry

Source: The carbon footprint of lime kilns. Manning, R., Tran, H., et al. TAPPI 2010

UPM• Pulp: 3.1 Mt/apulp = 1.7 Mtbio-C* → 2.2 MtCH4 = 30 TWh• Bark: 8.8 TWh = 1 Mtbio-C → 1.26 MtCH4 = 17 TWh• BioVerno = 1.2 TWh/a

* emission from production

Stora Enso• 1.7 times = 84 TWh Metsä group• 0.8 times = 40 TWh

170 TWh CH4

4.7 MtCO2on mass basis

CO2 is the main product of a

pulp mill

170 TWh = Oil & gas consupt. in Finland, Estonia and Latvia

The carbon balance (t/d) of a 1000t/d kraft pulp mill

Conclusion

• We are in the middle of energy transition: “The electrification of the whole energy system”

• There are several visible signs of this transition; 1) wind and solar power are becoming the least cost electricity generation techniques, 2) the power generation is becoming more distributed (by location & ownership), 3) the cost of storing electric energy decreasing, 4) the proportion of electric vehicles is increasing, etc

• Hydrocarbons in the forms of fuels, chemical feeds, human foods and animal feeds are still needed. These have to be electrified also by power-to-x technologies

• Finland is both a target of disruption and can benefit from it, providing technology, services, and software:• Power electronics, energy efficiency solutions, P-to-X technologies• Forest industry is a large source of Bio-CO2 ,could be used as a raw material

for biofuels, bio-chemicals, bio-materials